Hezbollah's New Talking Points

According to a Hezbollah source, after General Michel Sleiman is elected president:

1) the tribunal to try the assassins of former prime minister Rafiq al Hariri will have the full support of Hezbollah and the 8 March parties, and will proceed;

2) the Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails will be released;

3) the Syrians will sign the documents the government of Fouad Siniora sent them that will end any dispute over the ownership of the Shebaa Farms;

4) Hezbollah will reveal their deal with the Israelis over a prisoner exchange;

5) and after these three steps are taken, Hezbollah will integrate its weapons into the Lebanese Army. There will be an armistice with Israel. Hezbollah will no longer fight from south Lebanon, but move its operations, training, and strategies to Gaza and the West Bank.

According to him, the Syrians refused to sign any agreement with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his government, but they will cooperate with Sleiman and the national-unity government.

Hezbollah and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah tell extremely convincing stories. Their narrative is easy to follow, rational, and easy to comprehend. They hit on many themes that are true, like the corruption of some March 14 leaders, and make it appear as if everything would be fine if Hezbollah was in charge. Their members are true believers, and their passion and conviction is evident.

I wish what this man tells me is true. His talking points will please any Lebanese audience. Unfortunately, what is more likely to happen is that Hezbollah will pound these points into everyone's heads, and then they will use a minor excuse - like appointing a certain judge to the tribunal judiciary, or the Future Movement not allowing Michel Aoun to appoint Shia ministers (which is a bad thing, but allegedly happened in 2005) - to cancel everything out.

Who won?

The 14 March Coalition and the Arab League got a president elected before 2009, the year the Iranians predicted someone would ascend to that office.

The opposition got much more than their request of 1/3 veto wielding power in the Lebanese cabinet of ministers.

Hariri will protect his...ahem, our tribunal. Hezbollah's telephone lines were never really threatened in the first place, which means that their "divine" weapons will remain theirs, not ours.

The most important 14 March goals should be:

1) Complete government transparency;
2) Continue meeting the demands of the Paris-III donor countries.

These two demands will help keep 14 March Coalition members true to their democratic rhetoric and minimize graft within the ranks, while it will be an open threat to opposition ministers that this is not the Syrian era.

The opposition should come up with some goals of their own.

I'd love to see a war of ministries in which one ministry monitors another to make sure that it is transparent.

I would also love to see 8 March leaders force out a corrupt 14 March minister, and likewise.

The goal right now for Lebanese citizens is to make sure that the Lebanese government is working for the people, and prove that the government is not just an agreement between rich, gun-wielding fat cats who turn a blind eye on each others corrupt activities.

All Over?

The Doha negotiations were never meant to solve everything. They were meant to stall the violence until after the summer tourist season is over.

Lebanon now has a concensus president to provide legitimacy to Lebanese "democracy." Now, all Lebanese leaders can appeal to their foreign sponsors for more money. The businesses owned by these same leaders will profit from the Lebanese community abroad and brave foreign tourists who descend on Beirut this summer to party before the fighting starts again.

At least civilian lives will be spared...



My prediction: there won't be major clashes until the late fall. In late September or October, grumbling will begin. Then, some group will threaten to take to the streets. Then, a protest will occur, but it won't get violent. However, the government will be deadlocked, and everyone will be unhappy.

In November, Syrian and Iranian leaders will watch the American elections closely, and then listen to statements from the victor. They will begin planning, but won't take action until Bush is safely out of office and does not have the authority to go to war.

January 2009, tensions will increase, most of it having to do with the electoral law and the timing of the elections.

Then again, this is Lebanon. No one expected Nahr al Bared. Something else might pop up this summer.

The Doha Negotiations

The Lebanese press should have been banned from Qatar. Lebanese politicians should have been banned from calling the Lebanese press from their Qatar hotel rooms.

Negotiations are occuring in Qatar, and in negotiations the participating parties use strategies and tactics to win concessions. Inflaming Lebanese civilians and using the biased and propaganda spinning Lebanese media to effect the outsome of negotiations is only harmful to Lebanon, and a useless ploy against the other negotiating parties who all have media outlets of their own.

Politics is Lebanon's national drama, and all I've heard over the last few days are people commenting on the different tactics in Doha, and deciding to take some action in Beirut based on what they hear on the radio. It is ridiculous.

Minute by minute accounts don't matter. Keep it secret, and let some aide to Elie Skaff make a million dollars publishing a behind-the-scenes account of the events in a book published this August.

The blame game shouldn't happen in the middle of negotiations. Of course, one side will be mad at one point, and the other side will counter and make an entirely different group angry. That's what happens during negotiations. In the rest of the world, there is no Syria to step in and decide when it's time to stop debating. It is not acceptable to leave the office of the president vacant.

The point of negotiations is to figure out a way to live and work together. If that is not possible, then start figuring out a way for us not to have to live together, but do not come back without a decision that leaves us civilians in sectarian jeopardy. Do not fail to agree on something and then sacrifice our lives for your tribunals, "Divine" weapons, ministries of theft, presidencies you think belong only to you, and the foreign overlords who give you money and weapons.

Covering Lebanon

It is difficult to cover Lebanon. Most Lebanese don't understand their country. Political parties mount disinformation campaigns. Politicians claim one thing publicly, but do another. Other politicians make a proposal to provoke a response out of an opponent so that the politician can do something different than what is proposed today. Many political analysts and university professors are aligned with political movements and publish extremely biased polling data and articles in which they don't even get the facts right.

The LA Times tries to explore myriad facets of the Middle East. I regularly read their blog Babylon & Beyond. The blog covers myriad topics that rarely receive attention. Recently, I took the LAT to task for insinuating that a Sunni militia fought against Hezbollah during the recent clashes. They investigated the story further.

According to the general definition of "militia," one can argue that there was a Sunni militia. A group of armed men tried to protect their area. However, there are a few problems with publishing an article that says this:

1) the word "militia" in Lebanon is highly politicized. This should come as no surprise given the history of the Lebanese civil war.

Amal gunmen marauded through the streets of Beirut, but were in high dudgeon over al-Arabiya referring to these gunmen taking over neighborhoods in a planned manner within a supervised hierarchy as a militia. If Amal, which was actively controlling and possessing Beirut neighborhood, looting private property, and preventing the free movement of citizens, took issues with the word "militia," then might the Future Movement, which did not participate in fighting in the same kind of coordinated way as Hezbollah, Amal, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party?

Hezbollah's al-Manar TV routinely referred to their armed allies in the streets as "parties," whereas they referred to other political parties as "militias." The Future Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party, and the Lebanese Forces (which had nothing to do with anything that occured in the streets of Beirut last week) were described as militias, not parties, even though they did not invade anyone.

2) the implications of the word "militia." Hezbollah is, without a doubt, a well-trained militia. It is better equipped and more capable than the Lebanese Army, however, it is a militia because the democratically elected Lebanese government does not control it and has no power over it. In fact, Hezbollah has a large degree of control over the Lebanese government.

If Hezbollah can portray other parties in Lebanon as militias, then it has a better chance of justifying its own existence. If Hezbollah and its allies are the only armed factions, then it becomes much more difficult to justify possessing those weapons, especially when the weapons are being used to undermine the authority of the Lebanese government, Army, police, and other institutions. Many Hezbollah supporting friends cited the LAT piece to justify their claims about Saad Hariri having a militia.

3) coordination and training. Lebanon has a brisk economy around security companies. These are not Israeli, South African, British SAS, Blackwater style security companies that pay their employees hundreds of thousands of dollars to do whatever is necessary to protect billionaires and oil rigs. These are companies that provide minimum wage security guards to pat down men's waistbands and inspect women's purses. They also use little television antennas on sticks to screen cars for explosive chemicals (which I've been told by a UN security official are not effective).

SecurePlus is a Sunni owned security firm. It does not provide paramilitary training. The security guards they train do not even carry guns.

It is unfair to portray SecurePlus as being on the same level as Hezbollah, which has myriad training camps, launches wars and operations, and actively cooperates with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Whether the LAT wanted to or not, it entered into a dangerous Lebanese debate and aided the arguments of one side against another without helping to illuminate the truth.

Were there Sunni gunmen on the streets of Beirut? Yes.

Did they invade other neighborhoods? No, they primarily tried to protect their areas.

Were they trained to fight wars? No, the 8 year old with a gun on a motorscooter killed by Hezbollah fighters was not trained. He aimed his weapon at an invading force because the Army and police refused to do so. His community and leaders recognized that the actions the boy took were wrong and said so publicly, unlike the leaders of the men who killed the child.

Can the Sunni gunmen launch a war against Israel, should they choose? No, they have kalashnikovs, but did not appear to have the sophisticated telecommunications devices Hezbollah used. They do not have their own phone network to use in fighting against other Lebanese and Israel.

Could Sunni gunmen run through the streets of Beirut misbehaving the way Amal and the SSNP did? Sure, but the Lebanese Army would stop them. They would probably need the cover that Hezbollah provided Amal and the SSNP to get away with similar lunacy.

The Psychological Effects of War

I have no concrete evidence of what I claim; only the anecdotes of friends and associates. Given that aid organizations and academics have yet to fully chronical the effects of the 2006 war, I think anecdotal evidence will have to do for now.

Clenched Jaws and Chipped Teeth
I have heard many occurences of jaw problems. Some residents of Beirut are clenching their teeth to the degree that it hurts to chew. I have heard many reports of jaw aches. A couple I know say each separately wake up at night because their spouse is grinding his/her teeth so loudly.

A dentist told me that he is making many nightguards and repairing chipped teeth. He claims that Lebanese are giving themselves long-term tooth and jaw damage from stress. A friend started wearing a mouthguard when he runs because he can't stop clenching his jaw. He already chipped away half a tooth.

Pills
A friend of mine in Hamra can't sleep. His mother and sister can't sleep, either. Abed is a leftist, environmentalist, and skeptic, so he refuses to medicate. The rest of his family take pills. They can't sleep without them.

Muhammad tells me that his aunt started taking pills on the first Thursday of the conflict. She began to take more as the gun battles got louder. Now, he claims, she is addicted.

An American professor at the American University of Beirut realized that she could not cope with the situation. She couldn't escape, and the worries and pressure from her family in the US was too much to bear on top of the horrible situation she was living in. She went to the pharmacy the first day it was open and bought a batch of what she claims is valium, although that is not what the bottle states. In Lebanon, one does not need a prescription to buy extremely powerful, mind altering drugs. She is now accustomed to taking them. She offers them to her friends. Some of them take the drugs without ever having consulted a doctor or pharmacist about the actual effects and side-effects of what they are throwing down their throats.

Nightmares
It is not even worth cataloguing the number of nightmares I've heard from others. Almost everyone I know tells me about a dream they've had recently. I've had many awkward and disturbing dreams, as well. I tend to have political dreams. Throughout the 2006 war, I often dreamt of myself as a member of the Lebanese cabinet trying to resolve the conflict. This time, I dream about being in a vibrant city, but there being a massive conflict (often involving a gargantuan flood of water) occuring in the distance.

Some of the dreams of my friends are too disturbing to recount. Many of them involve lots of blood, dead bodies, and death. A Dutch woman tells me that she has dreams about saving her young daughter from dark, shadowy, faceless enemies. Another man dreams that he is a member of a South African private security corporation of ninjas that descends on Beirut and secretly and quietly kills all armed factions and corrupt politicians.


Drugs and Alcohol
The consumption of alcohol has gone up steeply. Many of my friends are no longer having one or two drinks at pubs. They are going to the liquor store and buying entire cases of beer, or bottles of spirits. Often, the entire quantity is gone by the end of the night. Many people report to have had constant hangovers for the last two weeks. They arrive at work late, and feel horrible for half of the next day. Many say that it now takes quite a bit more alcohol to achieve the same effect.

Many normally staid and professional people are now talking openly about using cocaine, hashish, and ecstasy. These substances are illegal in Lebanon, but are quite easy to acquire. When I asked an acquaintance of an acquaintance if he was worried if he would get caught smoking hashish openly in the streets (he claimed to have smoked it while walking down the Corniche al Mazraa boulevard), he said, "If they try and arrest me for smoking a joint, I'll scream at them and say, 'Why the f*** didn't you arrest the people firing RPGs last week?'"

Those using cocaine, unsurprisingly, note a difficulty sleeping. Those using the other substances say they are trying to mentally escape.

As for me, my consumption of araq (aniseed flavored liquor similar to raki, ouzo, sambucca, and pastis) has increased slightly. I don't know if this is a result of the conflict or because a friend's father gave me a gallon jug of the substance. However, I've been self-moderating. :)

I normally deal with stress by working more. This probably isn't healthy in the long run, but I'll solve that problem when I take a vacation...if I take a vacation. No, I'm not married....

Weight Gains/Loss
Friends have visibly changed. Some people have gained significant amounts of weight. Others stopped eating, and look sickly thin and exhausted.

Conclusion
Many Lebanese, myself included, argue that this technically short conflict did far more psychological damage than the 34 day 2006 war. Civil wars are much harder psychologically than wars with "the other."

One comedian performing the other night argued, "How is that the country that produces the best quality hashish in the world decides it needs to fight all the time? Isn't hash supposed to chill you out? People from all over the world travel to Amsterdam to smoke Lebanese blonde and red. People travel to Beirut to fight. Shouldn't they travel here to smoke up and feel "ja love"? The Israelis love Lebanese hash. Come on, guys, we can beat the Israelis at this... Why do we have to fight all the time? Have you ever seen someone high on hash fight?"

Life is returning to normal, but the scars are still visible.

Update: For a stunning distraction from Lebanon, check out this link a friend sent me.

Arab League Delegation Creates Path to Resolution

The Arab League negotiated between pro-government and opposition forces to create a 6-point plan:

1) Things must return to what they were before May 5, 2008: the government must respond to the Army Command statement and hand the two decisions over to the army; All arms must be withdrawn from the streets and all roads, the Rafik Hariri International Airport and the Beirut Seaport reopened; and the Lebanese army must take charge of national security and civil peace.

2) There must be agreement on returning to dialogue on the national-unity government and electoral law. This agreement must be crowned by the end of the sit-in the eve Army Commander General Michel Sleiman is announced as a consensus candidate for presidency.

3) The (Lebanese) dialogue will begin as soon as the clause 1 is implemented, on Friday May 16, 2008 in Doha.

4) All parties must promise to refrain from returning to arms or violence to achieve political ends.

5) The dialogue is to reinforce the rule of the Lebanese government on all Lebanese lands … for the security of the state and its citizens.

6) Political leaders will end their use of political and sectarian incitement and accusations of treachery at once.

Unfortunately, it seems like March 14 leaders will end up making large concessions.

The call for dialogue immediately, beginning tomorrow, puts the opposition in an advantageous position. The pro-government factions need to meet, strategize, and come up with a solution to face the opposition's demands. The opposition does not negotiate genuinely, and constantly changes their demands. Their only interest is placing obstacles in the path of the pro-government factions.

Supposedly, the opposition will receive its veto-wielding 1/3 of the cabinet, and will be able to block any decision the government takes. The 14 March Coalition will agree to this because it believes that the government created in Doha, Qatar will only be temporary, before 14 March claims a massive victory in the next parliamentary elections Their goal is to placate the opposition, but not allow the opposition to take power and undue all of the 14 March initiatives that came into existence since the creation of the government in 2005.

Allegedly, Future Movement leader Saad Hariri only cares about the Justice Ministry. The 14 March factions no longer care about the ministries of Interior and Defense. The forces under the command of these ministries, which are currently headed by members of the 14 March Coalition, refused to protect Beirut and protect the government they are sworn to serve.

The Finance Minister Jihad Azour is one of the best ministers in the government. He is a technocrat, but as he is a current member of the government, he is perceived as a 14 March member. Many 14 March leaders commented to me something to the extent of, "Why should we care about balancing the budget and sticking to the prerogatives of the Paris III accords, if the opposition denies any of the efforts to stabilize the economy?"

Most likely, technocrats like Culture Minister Tarek Mitri will disappear, and politicians with extensive experience in graft and corruption will take their places.

Observations and Hypotheses About the Situation in Lebanon

1) It seems like Hezbollah and the opposition are backing down. Hezbollah achieved its goal, and is currently willing to negotiate. Will they bully the government using a threat of violence, again? Most definitely.

Given that Qatar leads the Arab League delegation, it seems the Qatari balancing act - often perceived as pro-Syrian and Iranian bias - might offer at least some sort of agreement. Rumor has it that Qatar is representing Iranian interests more than the Syrian interests. I heard one claim today from a Future analyst that Iran and Hezbollah are upset with the Syrian regime, and that the Iranians do not want a fight between Sunni and Shia in Lebanon, which has already had regional implications. Obviously, given I have only one somewhat knowledgeable source, I have no idea if this is true.


2) I hear rumors from friends of friends in the south that Hezbollah is taking up strategic positions in the area and taking territory they previously did not have on the border. Some of these places are in Christian towns. Could Hezbollah be negotiating with the government now because it knows it will attack Israel which will rain down devastation next week, paralyzing the government, and giving Hezbollah full control of foreign policy, the means of violence, and media airtime? Who knows?

Where is Unifil? They are working within the confines of United Nations bureaucracy, ie not fulfilling their mandate, but supplying plenty of vetrinary care to the livestock in the region and free karate lessons to the youth.


3) Hezbollah initially came out to "support" the unions protesting the minimum wage and the price of food. I have not noticed a price increase, yet, but given that the border, the airport, and the ports have been closed, I would assume that demand for foodstuffs is quickly outpacing supply, thus the prices will soon rise. An employee with the Lebanese Ministry of Finance mentioned last night that Lebanon imports many food sources, including most of its grain. Bread is a significant staple of the Lebanese diet, and is the first supply to run out whenever conflict arises, as it did in Beirut during this conflict on the first day residents could leave their houses, and as it did during the opening days of the 2006 war.


4) The failures of Lebanese and Palestinian democracies might begin to fuel pro-regime, Islamic treatises on behalf of dictatorship and against democratic reform. Conservative Muslims normally cite Quran and Hadith to say that tyranny is better than revolution, because in revolution there is chaos, and chaos is what must absolutely be avoided. The chaos and disgusting behaviors that occured in Beirut and Gaza could easily support regime claims about stability and preserving the Islamic way of life.

Given the success of Dubai, it seems like Arab regimes are moving toward Plato's philosopher king model, or Machiavelli's educated prince (Qatar's scheming Sheikh Hamad?) more than anything else.

This argument on behalf of dictatorship also plays into the patronizing realist worldview in which it is better to negotiate with a strongman regime who supports one's views than to support democracy in which there is no predictable outcome. This argument is obviously also based on the assumption that the negotiating party is in a position of greater power than the totalitarian regime.

The Truth About Hezbollah's Allegiances

There are divisions between Hezbollah, Amal, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Sources from each political group told me about their anger with the others.

Hezbollah often likes to blame all of their evils on others, normally Amal. They love to claim that Amal members are thieves and brigands who would steal from their own mothers. They become emotional explaining the divisions between Amal and Hezbollah, saying that there is still great enmity between the two groups. Yet, every time something major happens in Lebanon there is Hezbollah walking hand in hand with Amal.

Hezbollah loves to claim that SSNP members are thugs. They claim that Hezbollah is professional and merely took over the neighborhoods, but it was the SSNP thugs who went around stealing, harassing neighborhoods, and shooting up businesses they don't like. Hezbollah members claim that they have problems with the Syrian regime and claim that there is no way they will allow the Syrians back in to rule Lebanon, because, "We hate them. We know, more than anyone else, how bad they were to Lebanon and Lebanese. They treated us like animals. There is no way that Hezbollah, which is more powerful than it ever was underneath the Syrians who negotiate with Israel, will ever go back to living under them. Syria is an ally, but will never be Hezbollah's boss." Yet, SSNP members run through Beirut neighborhoods putting up pictures of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Hezbollah supporters say, "We do not like these pictures being put up. They are very bad. This is Lebanon, not Syria. The SSNP and Amal will be very happy if Syria returns. We do not believe this at all."

Hezbollah, even after undermining Lebanese democracy and security by invading Lebanese territory in collaboration with Amal and the SSNP, continues to claim it is only fighting for Lebanon and for the Lebanese people. Everything that is bad is blamed on Amal and the SSNP.

Hezbollah and its members love to talk about how good and just Hezbollah is. They love to claim that Hezbollah members are men of God who will not do anything evil and corrupt. Then, why do they cooperate with assassins, thieves, and thugs?

Hezbollah loves to tell everyone about how powerful they are. Their leaders love to claim that they can take over Lebanon before other leaders even know what has happened. They love to point out, as Naim Qassem did, that the Shia population is nearly a third of the Lebanese population, perhaps more. They love to project their power democratically, militarily, and through their media propaganda outlets. Why is it, then, that they need such horrible allies that they themselves claim are horrible allies? Why this visible, on-the-ground cooperation? Why make positive proclamations about pure Syrian allies without popular support, like Talal Arslan and Wiam Wahhab, as if these figures will be future Nobel Peace Prize Laureates?

Parliamentary elections? Amal and SSNP are on Hezbollah's list.

Political ideologies? In practice, Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP vote along the same lines once elected into office, and boycott the exact same meetings.

Riots? Guess who all comes out together? Guess who got center stage during the 8 March 2005 "thank you, Syria" rally?

Application of the law? Hezbollah, Amal, and SSNP all abuse state authority and prefer to deal with anything through political connections, undermining the Lebanese government. Hezbollah polices its own areas, and illegally kidnaps foreigners and Lebanese policemen. Hezbollah and Amal block positive developments for the people of Ouzai who are in desperate need of a sewage system. Hezbollah has not once objected to the way their allies pilfer state coifers. Even though they love to attack pro-government parties for civil war era abuses and Syrian era graft, al Manar has not once complained about the massacres Amal committed against the Palestinians during the civil war, or the enormous sums of money Amal, SSNP, and other allied leaders took from the Lebanese government.

Hezbollah may claim to hate Amal and the SSNP groups in order to maintain its holier than though image, but years of cooperation display the diametric opposite.

Hezbollah Gathering Intelligence on Supporters of Government

Hezbollah stole computer hard drives and organizational papers from many Future Movement offices. An SSNP source claims, "Hezbollah now has the names, addresses, and phone numbers of many members of the Future Movement and other supporters. This information will be used against Future supporters soon." I also heard corroborating information from a European diplomat.

A Future Movement friend recently had an SSNP friend recount his evening events for him: "You left Sakiet Jinzeer from Pain d'Or at 4pm with a friend. You went to Jal ad Dib, and then to Sassine. You went to a pub in Hamra and met with another person. You arrived at home at 11pm. They know who you are."

The SSNP source argues, "If they don't come to an agreement soon, this country will become Rwanda. The Amal and Future people are all poor. They don't care about what they are doing. They want violence just to be violent. They will kill for $100 or less. You saw what happened in Halba. You see the 15 year olds running through the streets with assault rifles. There are no laws in Lebanon, now. This is anarchy, and the one who has the gun does what he wants."

Hezbollah got what it wanted from the government. After the Lebanese Cabinet chose to rescind its decisions on removing the head of airport security and removing Hezbollah's telephone network, Hezbollah controlled areas lit up with machine gun fire.

According to other sources, Hezbollah will push for more concessions by the government. However, the government has red lines it will not cross. If Hezbollah then decides to push for more, or worse, if Hezbollah decides to invade the Grand Serail and literally take the Lebanese Cabinet ministers hostage, then the Army will immediately split, and Lebanon will face war.

There is very little optimism in the streets of Beirut.

Civil Disobedience

Obviously, I'm angry about Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP's invasion of Beirut. They continue to claim that their armed attack is "civil disobedience." Obviously, they are not familiar with satyagraha and Dr. King.

However, I'm in a quandary regarding my fellow residents of Beirut.

1) Should we go back to our normal lives and not allow the brigands to stop us from doing what we choose? This would be a true act of non-violent civil disobedience in the face of menacing threats.

2) Should we keep business closed and huddle in our homes to prevent from giving an excuse to the brigands to become more violent and to save ourselves?

My friends and I are following the first track. We are continuing our lives, documenting the atrocities, and being active members of our communities. We aren't going to let the people who terrorized us stop us from doing what we need to do.

The vast majority of other people in Beirut are following the second path.

Situation in Christian Areas

The Christian areas between Beirut's Christian district of Ashrafieh and the northern Christian Lebanese city of Batroun are stable and relatively unaffected by the current events elsewhere in the country.

According to friends in the Chouf, the atmosphere is tense. There are still more reports coming out of the Chouf as to what happened and is happening. One of the main reasons why very little has been reported on this battle is because Hezbollah did not allow film crews into the area. Al-Arabiya and the BBC were the only networks covering the conflict, and both did so from behind Druze lines.

Eerie Feelings in Beirut

Beirut is dead.

At11pm, Gemmayze, one of Beirut's central night neighborhoods, closed up shop.

The late night places in Hamra, like De Prague, Barometre, Regusto (formerly, Chez Andre) and Evergreen, closed as well.

This is not the Beirut I know.

What's happening in the Chouf, now

Supposedly, 300 Druze shuyukh (sheikhs) supported the Druze community in the regions around Choueifat and Aley.

Now, I hear reports that Hezbollah intelligence is searching the region for military age males. According to a friend from Deir Qoubel, many of these men, fathers and providers for their families, have fled to guarantee their safety.

Supposedly, Hezbollah is extremely upset about their loss in the Chouf, and particularly that their soldiers were not only killed, but captured, which is a much bigger dishonor. One friend from Aley suggests, Hezbollah is trying to track down Druze to both take revenge and to kidnap to use as a bargaining chips with the Druze community, which killed many Hezbollah invading fighters and captured two others, along with, allegedly, two Iranian observers.

One of the major rumors floating around is that a plane from Iran landed at the Rafiq Hariri International Airport after it was closed. I have no doubt if this is true, or if it is pro-government disinformation.

While Hariri Spoke

While Hariri spoke, Amal's NBN TV broadcast images of dead bodies from the Halba battles. It appears that Lebanese Sunni committed this horrific crime and must be held responsible for their actions. However there is no evidence that Saad Hariri ordered the attack. Whereas Hezbollah, Amal, and SSNP leadership is definitely responsible for the terrorism, chaos, deaths, and murders that took place in Beirut. They must be held responsible for their crimes, and must re-pay the Lebanese people, businesses, and government for the harm and destruction they caused.

Bobby Worth of the New York Times covers the Chouf war.

Future Back On Air

Future TV is back on air. Future CEO Nadim al Munla is on, and Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi is calling in, at the moment.

A technician is showing the torn and cut Future TV cables and where equipment was broken and stolen.

Future Movement leader Saad Hariri is now giving a speech. He just called for a moment of silence. He's speaking from Koreitem.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad has been giving a speeching, which is still going on.


Tayyar.org forums has a report on the massacre that occured in Halba in north Lebanon. According to the report, Future Movement members massacred members of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.

As I posted during the conflict, Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP attacks inflamed sectarian and political feelings in the country. The atrocities visited on the residents of Beirut inflamed the Sunni in the north who are taking out their feelings of powerlessness on SSNP members in the north who did not participate in the attacks in Beirut, but ideologically support the violence that occured in Beirut and who support a return of Syrian occupation to Lebanon.

Getting Accurate Information During Conflict

Much of the information on television is propaganda or psy-ops.

Hezbollah uses it's media network, just like it's telephone network, for militant purposes. They feel little interest in uncovering the truth. Instead, they announce entirely inaccurate and false information to destroy the morale of their opponents.

Hezbollah also prevents other media outlets from reporting from areas they control, like al-Arabiya, which they have not only imprisoned, but banned from cable providers in their areas.

Future News is not on the air, and other channels seem more interested in broadcasting stupid speeches from third-rate Syrian era politicians than in reporting on the battles, the needs of the people, or providing specific information on which roads are opened/closed.

Much of the information being published comes from word-of-mouth accounts strung together, but not necessarily accurate. I know about my part of Hamra, and was chatting with others throughout the conflict to find out what was happening in the blocks around me, and in areas further afield. However, there are few ways to double-check the accuracy of the reports, particularly given that many accounts are emotion filled.

In the North and Chouf, entire villages took part in conflicts, thus increasing the eyes on the scene able to provide accurate accounts of what happened. The battles took place over a wider area, but there were fewer buildings, and especially fewer tall buildings, than in the crowded neighborhoods of Beirut.

Hopefully, we will get a few accurate reports with specifics. Every day, more information is coming in adding to details about what happened in Beirut and reframing it.

What Really Happened in the Chouf

The Druze community in the Chouf utterly defeated Hezbollah's attack.

On the very first night of Chouf combat, the Druze community in Aley armed with hunting rifles, kalashnikovs, and a few RPGs killed approxiamately 21 Hezbollah soldiers and captured two others. In a later conflict, Iranian "observers" were captured in Aley, according to a local source.

One scholar and educator from the Druze community explains, "Every man, young and old, came out to defend Aley. We only had the weapons in our houses. Some older men had civil war era weapons, like RPGs, but there were not many of them. I had no idea my community would be so spirited in its own defense.... Druze defend Druze. We were not fighting for our own lives, but the continuation our community."

In the village Deir Qoubel, the entire male population of the village came out to defend the town with hunting rifles and anything else available. According to a local source, the townspeople killed 11 Hezbollah attackers. One member of the community sustained injuries. The townspeople had the high ground and know the terrain well. Many people in the region are experienced hunters, mostly of small birds.

I assume that the Hezbollah fighters were not wearing body armor. From what I observed in Beirut, the Hezbollah fighters did not wear body armor there, either. However, their equipment is modern and sophisticated, and their tactics are well honed.

Druze members of the Hezbollah allied Syrian Social Nationalist Party sided with their community against their political ally. One Druze SSNP member argues, "when your guard dog becomes too powerful, you need to think about putting it to sleep." This was a war for survival.

Thirteen Hezbollah vehicles invaded the Chouf from the Bekaa Valley, but were captured in Barouk and Niha. Barouk is one of Lebanon's few wildlife sanctuaries. The sanctuary is a pet project of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and his wife Nora, who is of Shia origins. It is one of the few places in Lebanon where the Cedar of Lebanon grows; thus it is a symbolic site for both the Druze leader and Lebanon. Niha is where the Druze religious leader the Sheikh al Aql lives. It is a religious pilgrimage site, Naby Ayoub, or St. Job. Hezbollah attacked a holy place, and were rightly prevented from committing acts of violence there.

According to media reports, the Druze community dragged out World War II era 160 millimeter shells to defend themselves. Friends living in Dahieh report that they observed the Druze descending down the mountain towards Hezbollah dominated Dahieh. She claims that ordinance (but unsure of what type) hit Dahieh and set off car alarms in her area. Many local residents fled. The Druze community made sure that Hezbollah knew that the Shia community, too, is vulnerable to attack. The only way Lebanon will remain stable, and the only way for Lebanese to live in peace is if Lebanese participate in true representative democracy and do not overturn the institutions of the state and endanger the lives of other communities.

According to a source close to the Arslan family, many supporters of pro-Syrian, pro-Hezbollah Druze leader Talal Arslan are moving away from the leader. Just like the SSNP members who sided with their communities over their political allegiances, the supporters of Arslan realize that no one will protect the Druze villages if they do not protect themselves. This is no longer an issue of politics, but one of survival.

According to Tony Badran's sources, pro-Syrian Druze leader Wi'am Wahhab and his followers have fled the Chouf and are unlikely to be allowed back. They turned on their community in its time of need.

The Druze have closed ranks. They know that no one will protect their community if they don't do it themselves. Druze know that their leader, Walid Jumblatt, like his father before him, serves three roles:
1) as the most competent and able leader of his community;
2) as a Lebanese leader;
3) as a progressive leader.

His role as a national leader prevented him from publicly endorsing the Druze community's justified campaign against Hezbollah's invasion. Jumblatt did his best to provide national and international safety and legitimacy to his community, and publicly called for peace and an end to violence. He asked for Druze unity, and ordered his supporters to turn their weapons over to pro-Syrian, pro-Hezbollah leader Talal Arslan, who took this as an opportunity to aggrandize himself giving myriad interviews, and claiming that the Chouf supports the resistance and are people of the resistance. Note that Arslan only asked the Druze community to relinquish their weapons to him, but made no demands on Hezbollah, even though it was Hezbollah who attacked the Druze community, of which Arslan is a member.

Jumblatt's community, which followed his orders completely in Beirut, knew they could not let the Chouf fall, and knew the difficult political situation Lebanon currently faces.

The Sunnis cannot and will not stop Hezbollah. Sunni supporters in the Arab world never provide the amount of support Lebanon needs. The Sunni regimes, unlike the Shia Iranian regime and the Alawite Syrian regime, are never willing to make sacrifices to get what they want. Even more worrying for the Druze, will any of the regional religious powers make sacrifices for the Druze if the community is on the verge of annihilation?

The Lebanese Christian community does not have enough internal unity or external support to insure the Druze community that it will be protected. The Druze and the Christians still have festering problems left over from the civil war, as well.

As a friend noted, the feeling in the Druze community is, "all we can do now is refuse any political concessions to Hizbullah linked to the violence, arm ourselves to the teeth, and wait to see the international reaction." He continues, "There is a sense that the Hezb does not want the Druze to be part of the Lebanese equation," especially given Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's anti-Jumblatt remarks immediately prior to his militant takeover of Beirut. "Every step they have taken, given all the fronts they have opened, indicate this."

A Future for the US Funded Lebanese Army?

In 2005, US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said that she understood the dynamic in Lebanon and, as such, the United States would not call for the immediate disarmament of Hezbollah. Instead, the United States would work to strengthen Lebanese government institutions.

The Internal Security Forces received brand new equipment, and many officers were trained in the United States.

The Lebanese Army has a long-standing relationship with the US military: generals Michel Aoun, Emile Lahoud, and Michel Sleiman have all received training in the United States. Even during the Syrian occupation, the United States was the number one provider of military assistance to Lebanon.

After the Syrian withdrawal, the US increased the amount of aid and technical assistance it provides the Lebanese Army. During the war between the Lebanese Army and Fatah al Islam in Nahr al Bared, the United States provided Lebanon with most of its ammunition, humvees, airplanes, and other supplies. Lebanon's other supposed allies Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and France provided Lebanon with little to no military assistance.

However, as Lee Smith points out, the United States might be thinking twice about providing the Lebanese Army with any more munitions in the future. Despite three years of assistance, the Lebanese Army remains more in the position of a caretaker than as an active military force capable of preventing violence and defending the country from chaos.

The Next War with Israel

Whenever Hezbollah and Israel clash, the residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley flee those regions, and seek refuge in Beirut and the Chouf mountains. The vast majority of these refugees are Shia.

Within the last year, NOW Lebanon ran a story on Lebanese Shia fears that other Lebanese communities will not take them in after the destruction and undemocratic behavior of Hezbollah's 2006 war and the heightening tensions over the Lebanese government, cabinet, and presidency. In 2006, many Shia were angry with the less-than-hospitable, but good enough reception they received. The increased political tensions after the war made them fear reprisals during the next conflict, which led many Shia with money to buy property in Syria.

After this conflict, it seems that the residents of Beirut and the Chouf will not think twice before denying aid and shelter to the Shia community. The Shia community voted Amal and Hezbollah into power and, according to Hezbollah, the vast majority of Shia support the "resistance."

Hezbollah attacked the Sunni and Druze communities. They have killed innocent civilians and terrorized all residents of Beirut. The anger at Hezbollah and their supporters is palpable.

This issue was brought to my attention by MarxistfromLebanon who writes, "if the opposition thinks the rift is closed with the logic of "freeing the Sunnis from the Future Movement," there is one scary reply quote I got: "Let them see who will open their homes when Israel hits them again." Will this be the new retaliation form of sectarianism?"

Sunni Militia?

Who is the fixer for the LA Times in Beirut? Why is the LA Times feeding into the anti-government, pro-Hezbollah propaganda machine?

This story is a lame attempt to make it seem like the Sunni pro-government Future Movement had a militia fighting against Hezbollah. Despite what is written at the beginning of the article, the author somewhat comes clean about what she insinuates by noting towards the end that Sunni security for leader Saad Hariri were not even allowed to have guns.

The author tries to paint security company Secure Plus as something akin to Blackwater. The truth is that Secure Plus is a glorified private security company. They train their staff to a greater extent than security guards who monitor parking garage cameras, but do not train them in military tactics on how to launch RPGs and take and control terrain, similar to Hezbollah. Given the number of assassinations in Beirut in recent history, these guards are trained in evasive maneuvers in order to get their leader out of a bind quickly. These tactics often involve a lot of pushing and fast driving.

Hariri's private security does not have the training or experience to take on an army.

USS Cole Coming to Beirut?

Lebanese media is claiming that the USS Cole just passed through the Suez Canal. They are claiming that the ship is on the way to the Lebanese coast.

Friends on Facebook chat tell me that they think this will just hand Hezbollah another propaganda victory. A political analyst with the Quantum Group says that this is a good development and will put Hezbollah and Syria in their place. He suggests that the US hit Syria, not Lebanon.

Lebanese have no idea what is going on. We are left trying to figure out what to do next.

Lebanese all must be political analysts to figure out what to do next: risk one's life fleeing for the mountains, or stay for the ceasefire? Invest in a business opportunity, or put all one's money in a French bank?

Some news sources estimate that over 100 people have been killed. For what?

Fighting Dies Down, and Media Strategies

The fighting in the Chouf has died down.

Most of the Lebanese news channels showed the same footage and mounted their cameras in the same place. However, the commentary was entirely different.

Hezbollah's al-Manar refers to all pro-government political parties as militias and fighters. They refer to all opposition militias (ie, the guys with guns on my street from Amal and SSNP), as parties.

Amal's NBN is irrate that al-Arabiya refers to their armed gunmen causing chaos in the streets of Beirut as a militia. NBN is adamant that Amal is just a political party.

The pro-government Future TV is still closed. Hezbollah fighters cut their connecting cables.

Pro-opposition New TV has good coverage of what is going on throughout Beirut. Hezbollah is not preventing their movements.

Al-Arabiya has the best Google Earth maps depicting the regions in the Chouf from which the Druze community is battling the Hezbollah onslaught. The Druze fighters dressed in green uniforms with backpacks allow al-Arabiya to film them, but Hezbollah prevents al-Arabiya from reporting from any areas they control.

Hezbollah's propaganda and the accompanying propaganda from Iran's English language Press TV is utterly preposterous. They are telling blatant lies about the Beirut population being happy about Hezbollah's takeover. They claim that everything in Beirut is back to normal and that no one supported the government's moment of silence. They also like to repeatedly claim that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora resigned, even though images on other channels show him in the Grand Serail.

The pro-government Christian Lebanese Forces is not participating in the conflict, but Hezbollah's al-Manar is demonizing him and showing images of the LF fighting in the Lebanese civil war. They are badmouthing everyone else in Lebanon, but they do not show any images of Hezbollah's violent behavior or the despicably horrible evils the Amal militia, the SSNP, the Marada, or the Syrian Army committed during the war.

It looks like it will be a quiet night, but the media war is on.

According to my friends in central Beirut, it is eery and tense.

Jumblatt calls for Druze to stop fighting

Druze and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and PSP higher up and Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi spoke earlier on TV with trepidation in their voices asking for the Druze to stop fighting.

Jumblatt ordered his followers in Aley to hand their weapons over to rival Druze leader and opposition member Talal Arslan. Arslan urged the opposition to stop attacking the Chouf and the Druze residents there.

However, the television images show large fires in the Chouf. Friends living in the Hezbollah dominated southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahieh) tell me that all of the shops in their area are closing and that people are fleeing: "Dahieh is next! Dahieh is next!" is what they are all yelling.

Up to this point, Hezbollah dominated areas have been calm during this conflict. My friends tell me that RPG fire is so close now that car alarms are going off. I'm told that they are watching Druze descend from the mountain on Dahieh.

Update: Lebanese American University will be closed, tomorrow.

AUB Closed Tomorrow

The American University of Beirut canceled classes tomorrow. This is distressing news because AUB tries never to cancel classes, even when the Lebanese government calls for schools to officially close after assassinations or for national holidays (like Armenian Christmas).

The Lebanese American University's website claims that classes will be held tomorrow, but they might change their minds given that Choueifat and the Chouf are currently under barrage.

What is most disturbing to Lebanese high school students is that international exams are scheduled simultaneously around the world. Students taking International Baccalaureate exams must take their exams under a barrage of gunfire, and even though many of them cannot get home, and must worry about the safety of their families.

No Fighting, but Still Tense

The insanity of the last few days is over (at least for now), but everyone is still extremely tense. The return of masked gunmen to Hamra this afternoon gave all of us a shock that more could happen. Even if this afternoon escalation had not happened, Beirut residents are still traumatized and angry.

The atmosphere is horrible, and our attitudes will not change until our neighborhoods change. When traffic returns to our streets, students return to schools and universities, pubs and restaurants re-open, the physical damage is repaired, the political flags are taken down, and the usual Lebanese/Gulf Arab hedonism bring back the superficiality, music blaring from garish cars, and overly preened style our anger and frustration might lessen, and our spirits might be lifted.

Many neighborhood residents, myself included, cannot enjoy ourselves in our areas right now. The memories are horrible. The mental categorization through which we make sense of the world and frame our homes and communities, and the psychological stability our rational minds created using sensorial views like buildings, smiling neighbors, noises, smells, and predictable happenings has been broken.

As a professor at the American University of Beirut professor notes, "The streets literally changed. The space we live in has changed." The people we knew no longer have the same faces.

Hezbollah's Whining and Media Strategy

Hezbollah is claiming that te Druze in Aley "kidnapped" two of their men last night. However, the better word to use is "captured." Hezbollah tried to invade Aley and the community there refused to allow them in.

Unfortunately, there is no way that the community could hand the men over to the Lebanese Army or Internal Security Forces for breaking the law because they organizations will suddenly become politicized. Hezbollah will demand their men back and will threaten violence if they are not returned.

Yet, Hezbollah continues to whine about the men's capture. Al Manar repeated over and over in its 3pm newscast the issue of the men's capture, and it led their news scroll. They said they are holding Walid Jumblatt personally responsible. What has not been confirmed is Hezbollah's claim that the captured men were killed with knives. If this is the case, it is a sad development, but understandly in a time of war, especially in a country where the men (and the men who ordered the attack) will not be held responsible for their actions.

A professor at the American University of Beirut said about this situation, "Hezbollah is acting like a petulant child. They are so unhappy about this. Bad losers. This is what happens during war. This is what happens when you invade someone's territory. They take your men."


Aside: From my window, I can see smoke rising from central Beirut.

Syria's Plan

In a conversation with a PSP activist, we put the rumors we heard together, and found that there might be greater plans involved in these recent clashes. This is speculation, but it seems like there is a specific pre-constructed narrative being followed, and the weak link in the chain providing most of the information are SSNP guys.

It seems like Hezbollah's putsch is part of a larger plan to legitimate a Syrian return to Lebanon.

Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP tried to start clashes with the Sunni Future Movement and Druze PSP. Hezbollah assumed they would win after a week or so of clashes in Beirut and then dictate the narrative, claiming that they "liberated" the area. They followed their plan to take over all of Beirut, and then humiliate Hariri at the end by storming his compound. The only problem was that the March 14 parties refused to fight back and took away the clashes Hezbollah needed to legitimate their attacks ex post facto.

The plan was always to give territory back to the Army, but that is because the Army is merely a national symbol and placate the feelings of the community, while Hezbollah would remain in charge.

The SSNP would be the vanguard, placing posters of Syrian President Bashar al Assad everywhere. Hezbollah would be the enforcers, and try to keep some level of legitimacy by claiming that the SSNP guys are the Syria supporters. Amal and Berri would be the negotiating partner.

Hezbollah started clashes in the Bekaa simultaneous to the clashes in Beirut to make it seem like the fighting is national, but also to begin the process of providing Syria with an excuse to re-enter the country.

The SSNP forces were to rally in Metn (the suburban Christian area north of Beirut) a few days after Hezbollah started the clashes in Beirut (ie, some time around now or within the next few days). They would first join the fight against the Druze, but then use some action by other Christians in Metn as an excuse to begin clashes there. Given that the SSNP started organizing yesterday simultaneously throughout the country, it seems they are coordinating to strike soon.

The SSNP in the north will aid the supporters of pro-Syrian Sunni leader Omar Karami and other pro-Syrian factions in Tripoli. The SSNP in Koura would be the vanguard there, while the pro-Syrian northern Christian leader of the Marada Party Sleiman Franjieh would act like a combination of Hezbollah and Amal in Beirut.

Within a week, the Syrians would start griping about security on its border. Some attack would probably be staged on its border. They would use this as an excuse to enter Lebanon in some way.


Not Falling For It

According to my PSP source, March 14 is trying to foil Syrian plans, again. The Syrians have tried to cause an outbreak of violence before:

1) Assassinating Christian figures in 2005.
2) Setting off bombs in Christian residential neighborhoods in the middle of the night to terrorize the community and start a backlash.
3) Sending Hezbollah supporters through Ashrafieh on regular occasions with clubs to attack and intimidate Christians to spur a response.
4) Use mass demonstrations, riots, and attacks on the Serail to try to overthrow the government with superficial Christian support from Michel Aoun.
5) Spur on Palestinian militants to bomb Christian buses, and then have them create chaos in the north.
6) Bomb prominent sites (ABC mall in a Christian area, shopping center in Sunni/Shia/Druze Verdun, Aley shopping street) and try to get the populatin flustered.

Sadly, they might have accomplished their goal this time. Reprisals might begin soon. The attack on the Sunni funeral in Tariq al Jdeide today might be the beginning, and residents of Hamra are really angry with the SSNP for terrorizing them and destroying their shops and neighborhood.

Situation worsening

It looks like the situation is getting bad again. I think I'm going to move north.

Hezbollah realizes that their plan didn't work. They know they need to either capitulate or escalate. We don't know what escalation entails, but a few weapons were fired in Hamra again, and the streets are very quiet.

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