Druze Chieftain and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt unconditionally attacked Syria after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri.
Jumblatt's relationship with Syria was tenuous at the time. He was stridently against the renewal of President Lahoud's term in mid-2004 that required amending the Lebanese constitution.
Jumblatt's relationship with Syria since 1978 always ebbed and flowed. In February 2005 all of that changed.
Walid Jumblatt: Leader of the Cedar Revolution
Jumblatt became the face of the Cedar Revolution. He was Lebanon's oppositin leader. The Tayyar Mustaqbal [Future Movement] was trying to find an adequate leader in the midst of intense grief. Michel Aoun was in France. Samir Geagea was in prison. Most of the members of the conservative Christian Qornet Shehwan Gathering had little support (as was made clear during this year's parliamentary elections).
Jumblatt held the anti-Syria banner high, and waved it vigorously. He made extraordinary statements that no one was brave enough to make prior to him. He changed the Lebanese mentality. Attacking the evils of the Syrian regime was okay, even though Syrian troops were still on our soil. Yes, mukhabarat roamed in the streets. Yes, the politicians were still targets of assassination. Jumblatt let us know that none of this mattered as much as Lebanese freedom.
He gave everything he had to the Cedar Revolution. Members of the Progressive Socialist Party showed up in droves to every rally. I had never seen so many Druze dressed in formal attire in the same place at the same time as during the funeral for Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri. The Druze make up a very tiny percentage of Lebanon's population, and yet it was estimated that over 100,000 Druze attended Hariri's funeral. Jumblatt's personal gravitas alone carried Lebanon along.
All Lebanese felt proud as we saw Jumblatt, Ghattas Khoury, Nayla Muawad, Marwan Hamade, Ghazi Aride, and others travelling the globe on behalf of LEBANON. Our Syrian appointed government could not get a single representative into the offices of heads of state around the globe. Jumblatt was scurrying from one foreign capital to another on our behalf, and Syria had nothing to do with it! It was tremendous. Momentus. And much of it occurred only because of the sheer will, mental capacity, and aggression of Walid Jumblatt.
The Decline
Walid Jumblatt's position could only decline from the heights he reached during the Cedar Revolution. Structurally, he had no power to enforce his rhetoric.
Jumblatt needed the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia to get Syria out. No Lebanese politician believed that we, the Lebanese people, could do it ourselves without risking war. During meetings of the opposition attended by Jumblatt, Shaheed George Hawi, Shaheed Samir Qassir, and many others the main concern was internal war. The party that brought the most fear was that of God. Hezbollah holds the weapons. There was no way in which we could kick Syria out with the allied strength of Hezbollah, President Lahoud as head of the security apparatus, current convict Jamil as-Sayyed as head of intelligence, and General Sleiman as head of the Army.
The cards were in Syria's favor, and only foreign assistance could remove a foreign presence.
Saad Hariri
As the foreign powers increased pressure on Lebanon, internally, Lebanon was changing. The Future Movement found it's leader in Saad Hariri. This political neophyte needed lots of guidance, and who better to train him than his father's closest political ally and the Lebanese political master Walid Jumblatt?
But Jumblatt was the teacher. Saad was the one destined for greatness. Saad is the son of the martyr. Saad has the sympathies of all of Lebanon. The whole equation is set around Jumblatt being the loyal ally, not a leader.
Michel Aoun
With the return of Michel Aoun, the Christians had a strong leader. No longer did they have to live with the false representation of Syrian Lebanon. They had a leader many Christians had died for. They had a leader many members of every sect had given up their money, jewelry, and valuable items to support during his campaign against Syria.
A leader had arrived who could rival Jumblatt in terms of foreign connections [at least, that was the common tune].
Even worse, this man did not want to merely be a Christian leader; he wants to be a LEBANESE leader. And given the geography of Christian Lebanon; this man has a natural IN to other constituencies. He has support in Jezzine and Marjayoun, which automatically gives him a bargaining position with Shia and Druze [Hasbaya]. He has support in the Bekaa, which puts him into bargaining position for Shia, Sunni, and Druze support. He has support in the North, which places him as an alternative to the dominance of Tripolitan Sunni.
If this man joined forces with Jumblatt, Hariri, and the Lebanese Forces, the coalition could be unstoppable.
All Deals are Off
Jumblatt made his worst mistake by going on the attack of Michel Aoun. Jumblatt had little to gain, while Aoun profited at every turn.
Aoun arrived as an oppressed man. With the continuation of the 2000 electoral law for the 2005 elections, a law Aoun did not support, he could continue the oppression refrain. When all of the standard parties allied against Aoun, Aoun was the man being isolated and oppressed - not only by Jumblatt, but also Jumblatt's electoral ally Hezbollah. Aoun tried to join the government. He wanted to appoint cabinet ministers from different sects, and he was stopped by the usual politicians.
Aoun's support is real, though. He has a massive democratic base, and he has the second largest parliamentary bloc. Most importantly, his support spans the entire country.
This man changed the dynamics completely. He did not allow Jumblatt's plan to come to fruition.
Now
Jumblatt tried to find a way to secure more power for himself. Although a member of Saad Hariri's parliamentary bloc, Jumblatt repeatedly approached Hezbollah. In fact, Jumblatt went so far as to side with Hezbollah and Amal against a government in which his party is a member led by the head of his parliamentary coalition. Even worse, he did this at a time in which Hezbollah and Amal believed they could cause the government to collapse. Even worse than that, it was at the time that Saad Hariri and the Future Movement were most vulnerable: all of the leaders of the movement were negotiating on behalf of Lebanon in New York at the UN, in conferences with world leaders, and in Washington, D.C.
This did have an unintended consequence. It brought out anger from Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and forced the Tayyar Mustaqbal to respond aggressively to manifest their strength. PM Saniora met with Jumblatt. The newspapers reported that Saniora understood Jumblatt's position, but the Future Movement has not forgotten Jumblatt's betrayal at their weakest moment.
The conclusion was that Jumblatt cannot be trusted. He is a needed ally, but his loyalty is questionable.
Syrian Connection
Allegedly, Jumblatt tried to approach the Assad regime.
Syria was stonewalling the Saniora government. The Syrian regime blocked the border and was not allowing Lebanese trucks to pass through Syria. Given that Syria almost completely encompasses Lebanon, and Lebanon's only other international border is the impassable one with Israel, the Lebanese economy was taking a major hit. Syria refused to deal with the Lebanese government and relations were at an impasse.
Jumblatt saw his opportunity to assume his regular position as middleman. He would be the one to bring together the recalicitrant Syrians with the unbending Future Movement. To accomplish this goal, Jumblatt allegedly sent former Communist Party leader George Hawi as his emissary.
Syria responded by assassinating Hawi. Jumblatt had destroyed his relationship with Syria during his dramatic Cedar Revolution performance. What had given him so much ephemeral power had destroyed his bargaining position.
Geagea
Jumblatt met with Samir Geagea just the other day. The two leaders affirmed their unending alliance. However, this meeting was much better for Geagea than it was for Jumblatt. When forming an alliance, Jumblatt is ceding some of his power to another leader. This is even more significant with Geagea because of the demographics of electoral politics.
Geagea has a solid base of support in his home village of Bcherre. He is a sick old man without a massive party base. Michel Aoun has swept the Christian community out from under Geagea's weak feet. Geagea has become a rural leader with influence, but will not be able to assume the strength that Jumblatt has had over the years. Geagea role might become that of always being the conciliatory unifier.
Geagea's strength comes through his alliances. The Lebanese Forces currently have parliamentary seats thanks to two other parties: the Future Movement and the Progessive Socialist Party. Geagea can supply Christian votes in the North and in the Chouf Mountains. He does not have much of a base elsewhere, at least if we go by the results of the last elections.
Until now, Jumblatt's support has come through rigged democratic means. His alliance with Syria gave him strength through the war and during Syria's peace time governance. The electoral law was written to guarantee him seats in Parliament. Jumblatt could also bank on the fact that few Christians from the Chouf actually voted during the elections.
Now, the scenario has changed. There is no one to protect Jumblatt's haven. The electoral law could be redrawn in such a way that Jumblatt's power is completely minimized. And with more Christians willing to vote, Jumblatt will always have to worry that his own domain is under demographic attack. An alliance with Geagea can help to ward off complete democratic disaster, but there will always be a fear of Michel Aoun's impending democratic front. This election already proved that Jumblatt could hardly hold on to his seats in Baabda-Aley, even with an alliance with Hezbollah. Imagine if Free Patriotic Movement allied with the Lebanese Forces and a newly created Shia party. Jumblatt's parliamentary bloc is minimized.
Even worse, the Lebanese Constitution does not have any measure built into it to protect the interests of the Druze. It's the constant quandary. Walid Jumblatt faces the same problem his father did. The Confessional system does not allow him to assume the power he believes he deserves.
The counter argument is to question why the Druze even deserve special treatment. A current member of parliament told me that it is quite possible that there are more Greek Catholics in Lebanon than Druze. Do the Greek Catholics deserve to have a major position created for them? Can they just assume the protection of the Maronites?
Regardless, it is accepted that the Druze have a unique role in Lebanon. Historically, one could make an argument that they are Lebanon's most important sect. Many major Maronite, Shia, and Sunni families and many members of other sects can trace their descendency back to the Druze. However, that does not put Jumblatt or the Druze community on firm ground.
Student Elections
The student elections at AUB have shown the weakness of Jumblatt even within his own coalition.
Jumblatt's Progressive Youth Organization allied with Hariri's Future Youth Organization and Geagea's Lebanese Forces during the elections. However, that alliance seems to have frayed, and it is the PSP that is left dangling in the wind.
The elections place party members on student representative councils (SRCs), but the main concern is to take membership in the elite body, the University Student-Faculty Committee (USFC), that has more authority.
So far, Jumblatt's PYO has zero seats on the USFC. Worse yet, it seems like their coalition has worked against them. All of the seats the coalition has won have gone to members of Future and the Lebanese Forces. Even worse, members of Future allegedly brokered an agreement with Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement in the Faculty of Medicine that isolated the PYO.
If the student elections are a harbinger of political action in Lebanon, it seems that the Future Movement might be leaning towards the FPM. One faculty at AUB has not elected their representatives to the USFC, and that is because the PYO did not allow a quorum on the day the elections were supposed to take place. The main concern was that the Future Movement had brokered an independent agreement. And Future is still holding out from giving their word to the the PYO.
Concluding Thoughts
Jumblatt is an able tactician. He'll find some way to maneuver out of his current dilemma. No doubt, he sees his power dwindling and will take action to change the course.
However, his movement is limited. He cannot ally with Hezbollah, a party facing international scrutiny that has little need for Jumblatt's support. Doing so would only be to his detriment.
On Jumblatt's agenda is a meeting with opposition leader Michel Aoun.
Jumblatt is fighting a battle, not only against current politics, but also against grand structures in place in Lebanon.
Jumblatt could call Michel Aoun's bluff. Aoun claims he is against sectarianism. He claims to support a secular system. Jumblatt could ally with Aoun against Lebanon's confessional system.
However, that still leaves the question of how Jumblatt will assume more power unanswered. It's confessionalism that provides Jumblatt with authority. A secular system could only be to the benefit of a leader like Michel Aoun who makes appeals across sectarian lines. Jumblatt is, in essence, a sectarian leader unlikely to attract the votes of his former enemies.
If anyone can figure this one out, it's Walid Jumblatt. Sadly, he hasn't done a good job up to this point, but his current crash course in defeat might be just the remedy to his political arrogance of the last few months.
Friday, November 25, 2005
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12 comments:
LP this post contradicts your earlier writtings.... looks like you have been infected by FPM... maybe by a new GF who is FPM?.
. on a more serious note, please read your earlier writtings, I see a major shift in your thoughts
Article ONE:
Politics of Panic - Patriarch Backs Down, Aoun Ignorant
We must have genetically strong hearts.
Or maybe it's our diet.
But it is surprising that we don't have an incredibly high rate of cardiac arrests.
Just when we think everything is going on the right track, some politician has to rain on everyone's parade. First, it was Karami. Then, Hassan Nasrallah. And most recently, the Maronite Patriarch.
But each time, the problems seem to work themselves out.
Just when we thought the elections could be cancelled and the Christians storming about with anger, the Patriarch reeled in the community. The Qornet Shehwan Gathering is not dispanding. In fact, it has now united under the Patriarch.
If you hadn't been watching the news over the past week, you would never know that any spat about extending Parliament's term and cancelling the elections had even taken place. The old alliances are back together.
But perhaps that is just it. A political leader makes radical statements to move the hulking political status quo just slightly in his direction. No one pays much attention. They intended to continue doing what they wanted to in the first place, but now they know that to achieve their goals they must throw the smallest of bones to the fire breather.
The Patriarch has this technique down. Jumblatt is better at it than anyone else. We used to think crazy statements and reversals were just a part of his peculiar quirks and foibles. But perhaps it is a broader Lebanese phenomenon. It is part of the way we play the game.
The reason the recent machinations of the game have created so much unease in the chattering classes (pretty much everyone in Lebanon) is because so much rests on them. We have so much hope for our country that any little deviation scares us to the point of tears.
But now we realize that it is politics as usual. Create panic to cause minor change. Maybe that is what Hariri's assassins thought they were doing. They way overestimated.
Aoun
However, Michel Aoun seems to have underestimated. That, or he has no idea what the tacit rules are.
His return was one of those panic moments. It had the power to move the masses. But Michel did not harness his power. He arrogantly showed it off, but did not immediately jump into bargaining. The others saw his power and balanced against it. Michel became more of a threat than a needed ally.
The Patriarch, an expert in Lebanese politics, played Aoun for a fool. Aoun thought he could be a national leader by becoming a sectarian defender. He thought he would appeal to the Patriarch and rank and file Maronites by claiming to be the conservative defender. He thought he could be more Maronite than the Patriarch.
He was wrong. The Patriarch got Aoun to say all sorts of crazy things: attacking Jumblatt, attacking Saad, calling the protector of the conservative base - the Lebanese Forces - traitorous, calling for alliances with the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, and worst of all, calling for an alliance with Sleiman Franjieh against Qornet Shehwan members in the north.
The Qornet Shehwan looked like it was in shambles. Its members were bickering amongst themselves. Rida and Solange were making all the deals, and everyone else kept quiet. Aoun, not knowing what was happening, started shrieking to fill the void. Gebran Tueni, a political amateur, did not quite understand what was going on when he said he would leave it up to the Patriarch as to whether he would run for the Beirut Orthodox seat. But someone clued him in. Aoun just kept on bleating.
Then the Patriarch called everyone back to the fold. Solange and Rida look like heroes. The Qornet Shehwan looks strong once more. And Aoun has been effectively minimized.
There is no way Aoun can now make deals with Jumblatt or Hariri. He has attacked the poor, helpless wife of the dear imprisoned leader. He has made pacts with Lebanon's worst enemies. And he has done so at his own expense.
Now, Aoun is trying to appear powerless. He has stupid allies, as well: "In Beirut, sitting MPs Adnan Araqji, Beshara Merhej and former MP Najah Wakim will run in the elections and are looking for support from Al-Jamaa al-Islamiyya, which has no candidate in Beirut." The Beirut MPs are also looking to powerful Beiruti families who are not represented by Hariri to fill in slots on their list.
These pro-Syrians don't realize that you can't run as an underdog, when you have been on top for the past fifteen years. A Shatila claiming to be dispossessed is like a Kennedy claiming to being oppressed by the Democratic Party.
They are all using the same talking points: "Zghorta MP Suleiman Franjieh accused the Future Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party of turning against Syria only after Damascus began working against their interests." Powerless pro-Syrians - ie, not from the South or Bekaa - and their allies - ie, Aoun - are now trying to oppose the Opposition. Franjieh is right about Jumblatt and Hariri originally being Syrian allies, but should Saad's father have stayed with Syria when their agenda was his political exile and death? Most people in Lebanon can understand this. But they can't really see that the country has moved on.
Banding together in their weakness will not win them any grace from the potency enamoured Lebanese. Aoun's flaccid biceps are flapping in the breeze.
Ahhh, that crafty Patriarch...
Now we hear, "But Sfeir denied there was any conflict within the [Qornet Shehwan] gathering." We hear Butros Harb say that the Gathering is firmly in line with Jumblatt and Hariri. We see Rida attend her first session with the Gathering.
Aoun must feel really stupid. That is, if he even understands he has been trumped LEBANESE STYLE
Article TWO:
Michel Aoun has no Honor; however, Reforms occurring
And I thought it couldn't get any worse.
Now, Michel Aoun is comparing Walid Jumblatt and Saad Hariri to Rustom Ghazaleh. If the other stuff didn't get to you, this is just heinous.
It is so absolutely obvious that Michel Aoun is out of touch that I shouldn't even bother commenting on the subject. Anyone living and working in Lebanon knows of the horrendous abuses Ghazaleh perpetrated on Rafiq al-Hariri. It is said that Ghazaleh used to routinely call Hariri with threats of violence and even dislocated the portly Prime Minister's shoulder with a rifle butt. To compare his son and closest ally to that disgusting man is far too much.
Michel Aoun has no honor. He has no sense of reality. And he obviously does not have a clue as to what it was like to live here under Syrian rule.
Even worse, instead of reconciling with Samir Geagea when he meets him in prison, Aoun plans on verbally attacking Geagea's wife. Aoun cannot stand that she has forged alliances with other people instead of with him and thinks he can tell a man whose wife has remained devoted to him for eleven years that she is selling her soul to Satan. Aoun is trying to break down alliances and encourage disunity.
Michel Aoun is only out for himself. He cares nothing about the country as a whole. Unless, that is, he is just too ignorant to understand the way the world works. If either charge is true, then Aoun deserves no leadership position in the future of our Lebanese democracy.
However, incredible reforms are taking place without any help from Michel Aoun. The new head of Army Intelligence has replaced another one of the seven corrupt intelligence chiefs. This leaves one left, although this one will be the hardest to get because he runs Lahoud's personal security operations.
This follows on one of my posts from yesterday in which I argue that the most important battles are occurring without reference in the news media. We only hear about the big changes. But many small battles had to be fought and won for these big changes to have succeeded.
Article three:
Aoun on Fire (burning down); Jumblatt a Caricature; Saad, Geagea, Gemayel unifiers
Aoun is burning bridges faster than he can build connections.
He's "making war" with Jumblatt and Saad right now. No one is taking him seriously any longer. Now, he is the one trying to appease the pro-Syrians. He's talking about making deals with Talal Arslan in Aley, the SSNP nationally, and with Franjieh in Coura. It's really disgusting.
He has no principles. He's mirroring Nabih Berri and Hezbollah who have just declared their joint lists in the South and Bekaa, which include members of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party and the Syrian Baath Party. Sadly, they will probably sweep. And Aoun did not get in on the deal.
Aoun seems to enjoy the position of perpetual opposition. I'm surprised he has not created some sort of bond with Najah Wakim.
If the situation continues in a similar pattern, there is no way Aoun will ever become president.
Everyone is pretty much in agreement that Jumblatt is a peevish loudmouth that just won't go away. He has to be tolerated.
On the bright side of things, Saad and Rida Geagea are taking the Everest road. They are standing above the clouds so far away from the blustering below that their eyes are not diverted from the horizon.
Saad is singlehandedly forging national unity. A Sunni Muslim giving a seat to the wife of a contentious militia leader, turned Israeli ally, turned President proves that we are moving on.
The mud is so far away from Saad's feet that the others look like they are swimming in the sty.
Looks like elections will happen. Let's hope for the best.
LPJ Prediction: no matter what happens, Lahoud is gone
Khaled,
Great comment!
You gave me the opportunity to reflect on some of my better posts.
I still stand by them. That is the way the dynamic was being played at the time. Aoun had alienated everyone. However, the spin has reversed itself.
The grand plans of Jumblatt and Hariri never came to fruition, and they will not now. Aoun has filled the gap, and he has created a new center.
The Opposition had a flawed logic. They predicated their moves on isolating the former majority. It left Aoun open to succeed. As I noted in a recent post, Aoun did go back on his convictions. He became a pragmatist. However, he is not guilty of anything more than disappointing us.
There isn't a flipflop in logic. The entire dynamic has shifted. The Future Movement has been in power long enough for the people to become disenchanted.
And Aoun is playing his cards astutely. His speeches in the United States completely contradict everything he said while here.
Lebanese politics is a game of chess. One's strategy is constantly shifting depending on the mental agility of your opponent. Your initial strategy may result in a major loss (a rook, a knight = Baabda, Jounoub), but that same strategy can be twisted to an advantage (an opening to castle = opposition leader of a much more powerful opposition than originally thought - ie, the addition of Hezbollah).
Do you see where I am coming from?
The irony is that Aoun managed to isolate Karami and Franjieh while bringing them into the debate. In areas where he had complete control (Jbeil and Kesruwan), he did not have to "renegotiate" his beliefs.
Also, as I've stressed over the last few months, Jumblatt lost his queen - the unconditional support of Saad Hariri. That's because he played by the old rules.
Aoun is now in a powerful enough position to forge an alliance with the Tayyar Mustaqbal. But they too must watch out. Alliances, for Aoun, are always negotiable.
Aoun is much more of a French or American style politician than a Lebanese.
Excellent post LP.
Khalid, you say "Everyone is pretty much in agreement that Jumblatt is a peevish loudmouth that just won't go away. He has to be tolerated."
That cannot be true, how can you turn an inacurate assumption into a fact.
Who is a key ally of the Future Movement?
Who is a key ally of the Lebanese Forces?
Who is a key ally of Hizbullah?
Who is a key ally of Amal?
Who is a key ally of the Democratic Left?
Who is a key ally of the Lebanese Communist Party?.....etc.
Do you really, really think that all these parties have allied with Joumblat just to shut him up? I believe that you have to think of this point more profoundly before creating this false conclusion. He HAS made several wrong decisions, but then again who hasn't?
And if speaking one's mind turns him into a peevish loudmouth, I believe that your comments would be more relevant in other countries like Syria, KSA, Iraq, Iran...etc.
I believe that your analysis regarding the seminal role played by Walid Jumblat in the Cedar Revolution is right on the money. Walid Jumblatt was able to give the spontaneous grassroots movement both a local and an international credibility. These are the facts that no one can deny. The image however from abroad(I live in North America) is that Walid Jumblatt and other traditional leaders coopted the genuine graasroots movement through their machinations in order to restore the tribal, factional, traditional political leadership structure that had dominated Lebanon since its creation. Mr. Jumblatt's failure was the lack of courage of abandoning his narrow sectarian based constituency in favour of establishing a truley national all inclusive movement. His attempts to maintain the support of Hizballah were clumsey and were in contradiction to the positions that Lebanese independence and sovereignty were non-negotiable. None the less Mr. Jumblatt's efforts on behalf of the nascent revolution were essential. I doubt whether it could have survived without his initial support.
Traditional political leadership in Lebanon has managed to neutralize the great potential of the March 14 movement and as a result the cause of civil society and genuine democracy in Lebanon have been replaced by ineffective and undecisive political leadership that is yet based on the same principles that are an anathema to democracy.
Mr. Jumblatt could have really changed Lebanon radically and for the better, unfortunately he settled for incremental change when what was needed was a paradigm shift.
Ghassan,
You're right on the money.
I didn't march in a muzahara until March 14, which was really a response to Hezbollah. I didn't stand with Ghazi Aride and Nayla Muawad. They claimed they wanted to lead democratic change, and yet they were full of hypocracies (like the 2000 electoral law Muawad so fervently desired).
The irony is, as you say, Jumblatt nearly sold March 14 down the stream. His political pragmatism in dealing with Berri and Nasrallah kept everything the same on the ground. Some of the very first posts on this blog were in despair. That was before Aoun. We had calculated that if Jumblatt's plan had gone into action, the North would have been the only region with major political change. It was a tough time.
LP
I will comment on this phrase for Aoun, are always negotiable I do not consider someone who flipflops and change his views just to suite his own personal agenda, I want someone with clear views and clear agenda for the sake of Lebanon, and for me aoun is as ramzi once said GET-ME-IN-THAT-PRESEDENTIAL-SEAT-GOD-DAMN-IT
Tamim
You are commenting on one of LP's earliest posts which I pasted in my comments.
as for Jumblat, it is he who is allying with everyone; as being a minority and with the newly election laws under drafting, he might not be a key player afterall, and he is keeping links with everyone just in case.
I'm sorry Khalid, I just skimmed through your post, I thought you had written this.
Well then I guess my questions are now to be pointed towards LP..
It's really sad that Jumblat destroyed his national leader status, but he can only blame himself.
vox-- he definitely made some very poor choices, but it would have been virtually impossible for him to maintain his status as national leader indefinitely under the current system. as LP notes, jumblatt is both empowered and constrained by sectarianism.
jumblatt is ambitious, but not quite as ambitious as his father; i suspect the lack of a totally clear objective has contributed to jumblatt's apparent inability to pursue a stable strategy for consolidating/increasing his own power.
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