Hezbollah Surprised By Their Own Attack

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah revealed that he did not know of this morning's attack prior to its occurrence. According to a mid-level Hezbollah party member, the Hezbollah leadership was not expecting the attack to come right now, not expecting such a harsh Israeli response, and is currently scrambling to come to a plan.

In January, the party leadership decided that they would capture Israeli soldiers in exchange for Lebanese prisoners. They would attack at the earliest possible time, and today happened to be that day. The Hezbollah leadership was entirely caught off guard.

Hezbollah was the most powerful force in the National Dialogue, which has been going on for the past few months. Hezbollah was dominating sessions on defining Lebanon's defense policy, and the party was getting everything it wanted.

Hezbollah's leadership knew they could maintain their power over other Lebanese political factions, but knew they had a small range in which to operate because, outside of the Shia community, Hezbollah has little to no support. The Sunni community in Lebanon is becoming radicalized against, not only Hezbollah, but Shia in general. The Sunni Interior Minister recently legalized the radical Sunni Islamist group Hezb at-Tahrir.

There is no way that other Lebanese communities will now let Hezbollah act on their own.

Israeli Response

Hezbollah was surprised by Israel's response.

When they dreamed up this plan in January, they thought the Israelis would respond as usual: bomb a few Hezbollah positions on the border, and perhaps attack Palestinian militant camps. They were not expecting the attack to occur at this fragile time with the Palestinians.

Instead, the Israelis massively destroyed Lebanese infrastructure. Bridges throughout South Lebanon have been destroyed. Almost the entire South is without power.

The Sunni Surprise

Even more surprising for Hezbollah was the Sunni response to the bombing of both the old and new roads at Damour. The Sunni in Saida explained this Israeli aggression away noting that the Israelis were trying to block Palestinian militants at Naameh from going on the attack.

According to three Sunni shop owners in Beirut from Saida, they and their families are more upset with Hezbollah than they are with Israel. In fact, they understand the Israeli position.

Isolating Hezbollah from Within the Government

The Lebanese government's response and Prime Minister Saniora's statements have further polarized the Christian, Druze, and Sunni communities against Hezbollah. The government claims they had nothing to do with the attacks and refuse to accept responsibility.

Although the government has not condemned the attacks, the people are intrepreting the current statement as being against Hezbollah's attacks. Prominent Christian politicans have already spoken out against Hezbollah's actions.

Even more, Lebanese Ambassador to the United States Farid Abboud has been recalled from his position, which is a coup for the 14 March politicians. Abboud is a close ally of Syrian appointed Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, who is Hezbollah's closest Christian ally. Sanioura was previously unable to remove Lahoud from office, but because of actions he took in Washington, DC today (I don't know the specifics) he has been recalled.

Allegedly, the Israelis are intentionally not bombing north of Damour, even though they claim they are holding the Lebanese government responsible. Israeli jets have yet to fly over Beirut. We'll see what the night brings.

Also alleged, 14 March leaders and Western governments are quickly moving to capitalize on Hezbollah's shaky position, their isolation within the Lebanese government, their military incapability in confronting the Israelis, and their loss of any support now in the international community.