As readers of this blog know, I'm an eternal optimistic. I look at the smallest of openings and try with all my might to move society in the direction I want it to go.
Just two days ago, I was optimistic. But now, the very tiny window of opportunity the West and its Lebanese allies had to make a dramatic change has closed.
It's too late.
Hezbollah was the most prepared for the aftermath of this conflict. This is ironic because Israel's entire agenda was to keep Hezbollah from being prepared for anything ever again. Israel took great pride in the fact that all Hezbollah leaders fled to the bunkers. Yet, in those bunkers, Hezbollah was preparing for the next step.
All the while the 14 March leaders, as well as the leaders of other Lebanese political parties, sat around calling for unity and an end to the fighting. These leaders barely raised a finger to help the internal refugees. Hezbollah, the party under attack, did more for the million displaced people than any of the leaders untouched by the conflict.
Prime Minister Saniora did an incredible job steering the country during war and representing Lebanon abroad. Sadly, he had no support at home within the political organization of which he is a part.
The Failure of the International Community
The international community failed to respond quickly enough.
There is little hope that the international force will bring any changes. Lebanon is changing RIGHT NOW. The decisions and actions that will determine the future of Lebanon are alreadying being made. The international community is not there to help mold that future.
Sure, the UN is moving quickly. The Washington Post reports, "U.N. officials in New York said they are prepared to scrap many of their procedures -- including the lengthy negotiation of "status of forces" agreements -- to speed up the deployment. They also said the first peacekeeping forces should be from countries prepared to quickly equip and transport the troops without assistance."
Sorry, guys. You're already too late.
You may be impressed at how quickly your bureaucracy is moving compared to normal, but that's not fast enough. Troops should have been on the ground the minute the ceasefire was called. They could have secured Hezbollah areas and not allowed them to be restored for a future attack on Israel.
Hezbollah's already retaken all of their old sites, and they've probably already found new and better sites for the next attack.
Does Israel have anyone on the ground or in the sky monitoring what Hezbollah is doing right now? Probably not. Israeli PM Olmert and Defense Minister Peretz have already proven their incompetence. Thinking ahead is way beyond their capabilities.
Israel does not have the will or determination to truly take out Hezbollah through any means: militarily, diplomatically, through intelligence, through supporting Lebanese governmental institutions, through supporting the UN, through whatever means they can.
A Question of Will
Hezbollah is determined to set the path of Lebanon The organization is huge and organized. Hezbollah is an umbrella organization that houses all different kinds of projects: military strategy, parliamentary politics, agricultural policy, water access, security protection, international diplomacy, the payment of electrical bills, and more.
No one is better staffed or prepared to make dramatic changes in Lebanon.
To use an analogy, Hezbollah has a massive think tank pumping ideas to a disciplined army that has the support of hundreds of thousands of volunteers, all of which is enabled and funded by similarly minded state donors.
No other party in Lebanon can counter this. No other party has the will or determination to try since Pierre Gemayel formed the Kataeb (known in French as the Phalange), which didn't compare in scale or purpose to Hezbollah.
Prime Minister Saniora is an able leader and an adept diplomat. He's a true Lebanese patriotic, yet the government he leads is incapable of assisting him in his endeavors. He is not fed ideas from his ministries or government bureaus. He and his people come up with those ideas themselves.
Saniora does not even head the political party he represents. Saad Hariri leads the Tayyar Mustaqbal (the Future Movement). He and his movement excel in only three areas:
1. Getting diplomatic assistance for Lebanon
2. Getting money sent to Lebanon
3. Funding the educations of young Lebanese Sunnis, and subsidizing the price of petrol for Sunnis
Once Lebanon receives the diplomatic and financial assistance, there is no plan in place to best profit from what Lebanon has been given. Hence, the support is squandered.
The Hariri apparatus is set up like a corporation, not like a political party. They look out for the best interest of the corporation, not for society as a whole. They do not dream big. They take pride in small achievements. They take pride in skillful deal making, not in standing up for their values.
Hariri ally Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze, has the will and the determination, but not the force or apparatus to implement his ideas. He seeks assistance for every one of the issues he supports, for he is unable to put any plan into action himself.
Jumblatt's allies claim he is in this position because of the small demographic size of the Druze (perhaps a population of 350,000). But the problem is Jumblatt's apparatus itself. Jumblatt's entire organization is a personality cult that instantly mobilizes to put into place anything that Jumblatt desires. There are no institutions to promote long term agendas.
Jumblatt responds, and he does so brilliantly. He does not build. Even worse, he does not allow supporters within his community to build institutions because that would threaten his absolute leadership of his community.
Jumblatt manifests strength at times of weakness, but he does not have the will to engage in the nuts and bolts activities required to slowly move a country.
Jumblatt loves playing politics, but has little interest in creating a strong civil society.
It's not even worth talking about the other Lebanese political parties. Michel Aoun seems so firmly allied with Hezbollah now that there's very little reason to view him as an independent entity outside of Hezbollah's political organization.
Thursday, August 17, 2006
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39 comments:
Excellent analysis, and spot on, on all counts.
I'm afraid I don't really see why you're optimistic though, Charles. Your entire analysis confirms my the notion I've had for the past week that Lebanon is in deep deep doo-doo.
To counter an agenda, you need another agenda.
You cannot counter a religious/liberation/romantic agenda with some crap about GDP growth and the friggin tourist season. No one wants to die for that.
Siniora is a failure IMO.
I agree with Charles on one count: the gvmnt etc should have been prepping for Hezbo from before the war. They should have been thinking how to use and leverage the army starting Jul 13.
Instead they still do not have a clue.
Lebanon is in very deep shit.
Excellent analysis, as always.
But I still don't understand why is everybody "rolling over" for Hezbollah.
I was expecting a different message from Jumblatt and Hariri- they focused too much on Assad who was a distraction, instead of speaking to us the Lebanese, about their vision vis a vis a rising Hezbollah. What Lebanon will we have, going forward?
Excellent and accurate analysis except for the end:"
It's not even worth talking about the other Lebanese political parties. Michel Aoun seems so firmly allied with Hezbollah now that there's very little reason to view him as an independent entity outside of Hezbollah's political organization."
I am not sure that this is very accurate regarding Aoun. The FPM is very different from HA. They have some type of agreement but their political agenda is very different. Just to name few divergence: FPM is for separation of church and state, while HA is not, FPM is heavily focused on economy, while HA on resistance. At the same time, Aoun and Nasrallah shares one thing: both they have a charisma that appeals to the dignity of the Lebanese... Aren't we proud of being Lebanese, I don't feel this pride when Seniora, Hariri, Jumblatt or Geagea speaks.
Finally, your article ignore some other big players like Geagea whose popular support cannot be unnoticed. I am curious of what do you think about his strategy?
Your framing of the failure of the international community in terms of the rapidness (or lack thereof) of a joint military deployment is way off mark. If you somehow thought that it was possible that several different countries could mobilize troops at a moment's notice with no legal mandate and no military technical agreement, I wish you would I have called me and I would have talked some sense into you.
There is only ONE way that troops can be mobilized rapidly into Lebanon without those annoying details such as status of forces agreements or legal mandates or basing rights - and Israel already tried it. Maybe that is what you expect, I don't know.
lebanon Survives once again, But will Syria of Assad
Unfortuantely the fickle western world might lose interest in your problems if this sod has his way. He wants Iran to give him missiles now. He apparently doesn't know this
"The keys to the Zelzal stores stayed in the hands of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers who were in command of Hizballah. Nasrallah and his officers had no access to these stores.
But Tehran has learned that Israel was able to destroy most of the 22 Zelzal launchers provided. "
On he spouts
"Abu Nasser is not ruffled by the IDF's threats to West Bank towns if they use missiles against Israeli cities. "They threatened to demolish Gaza and Lebanon and we saw that wasn't so terrible."
"Abu Nasser claims that they can succeed if they mortally strike down the "army of collaborators" with Israel, just as Hizbullah hit the Southern Lebanese Army. "We need to dedicate a certain time period to cleansing our forces of collaborators. Then there won't be any force that can stand before us, although I won't say it's simple."
A killing spree in Palestine, madness. And Fatah is going to agree to being butchered?
So the French ... THE FRENCH
are supposed to deploy to
Southern Lebanon and prevent Hezbolla from re-gaining prominence???
Oh really ... are you crazy ...
And then you blame the Israelis ...
they lack the will yada yada ya ..
Thats fine Blame everyone but
1) The non-hezbolla factions who had six years to move Hezbolla
into a purely political party
2) The Syrians and iranians for arming them ...
Lebanese have to hit the streets
soon and often with huge rallies
to support the latest UN resolution
which Lebanon will soon be
violating ....
remember armed Hezbolla out of the south and all weapons into Lebanon
in hands of lebanese Government ...
The Israelis let Lebanon play
the "... Its not us its Hezbolla"
card once ... they WILL NOT allow
another attack on their soil
and show such restraint ....
I mentioned this before ....
in a few months the world will
see who is the current "occupier"
of lebanon ... its Hezbolla !!!
The world has to see that the majority of Lebanese want
The UN resolution implemented ...
get the word started ... pick a date in the fall ... get real factual information about what is happenning in the South and
hit the streets ... the only flags
that should wave are the flags of Lebanon ... you need to make sure
the Hezbolla flags are dwarfed
by the Lebanese flags ....
You guys simply can not afford
another attack by Hezbolla on Israel ... this latest war used
very little of the Israelis arsenal ... you need to shout down Hezbolla ... and if non-Hezbolla
areas get car-bombed because of this you need to get the word out
and prove to the world the terrorist nature of Hezbolla !!!
I think you are right and if so, the necessary conclusion is that Lebanon is in reality quite dead. Everyone, including hizbo will maintain the fiction-- until it is no longer necessary in its case, or until the reality is inescapable, such as when the islamic republic is declared.
Look at history. This is the nazi's methodology. This is the Iranian 'revolution' played out in slow motion. Does anyone remember what happened in Iran in 1979? The mullahs weren't swept into power by a popular tidal wave. They used all the opposition groups until they obtained the levers of power, co-opted the revolution and then proceeded to ruthlessly butcher all the other opposition groups.
Your 'leaders' just do the dance so as not to offend the mullah and his thugs. What else can they do? They don't have the guns. There is only one objective that hizbo seeks, so why do they still do the hizbo tango: to play for time when the dynamics just get worse? Are they appeasers of the worst sort?
Unless you put another million people on the street, there is no hope. You cannot negotiate with these people. You have two choices: leave or fight. For those afraid of a return to civil war, I do believe they have to understand that hizbo knows that it never ended. Why the guns? For the Baa Baa Farms?
Everyone laughs at the Christian fundamentalists (except themselves, of course) when they talk about this being the big one. The more I look at the potential of this one in the context of everything else that's going on in the region, I think that their scenario might not be too far off.
Before all this began, Daniel Pipes said that the problem in Israel, is that they have lost the will to win. Somehow, Oslo began a process that enabled the consciousness to be altered. There is obviously no solution with popular islamism. For the islamists, only the objective is what matters. How can there be any kind of negotiated solutions when the Arab (and muslim) street is consumed by this kind of mentality:
Salutations to the Lebanese :
http://www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SD125506 .
In an article in the Egyptian government daily Al-Ahram, Egyptian Mufti Sheikh Dr. 'Ali Gum'a expressed his support of the resistance in Lebanon and stated that the lies of the "Hebrew entity" expose "the true and hideous face of the blood-suckers... who prepare [Passover] matzos from human blood."(1)
The Hizbo is just another type of this mentality. You know their other ideas, attributes and behavior patterns. They know where they want to go and accomodation is not part of the vocabulary or lexicon.
So the movement toward the next confrontation begins as hizbo begins rebuilding and in their original sites where existing and new weaponry is being stored in the south and elsewhere. The debate in Israel is now going on frantically and the return to the survival mentatlity is beginning.
Ironically, the real Lebanon is more similar to Israel than any other country in the region, but the Hizbonaon-Israel border is now an idealogical and military frontline in the quest for the islamic holy grail.
And it ain't gonna end well.
Maybe we can hope for a quick Iranian meltdown, or maybe the Americans will leave the Shiites and Sunnis alone, in Iraq to kill themselves by themselves, and then go after the real enemy. Talk about armaggedon.
Caveman,
I wasn't expecting anything of the international force. I already know that it will only be a minor palliative.
I put that in because the US (from what appears in the Washington Post), other nations, and unsurprisingly, Lebanese, believe that the international force will actually be able to do something.
They were doomed to begin with, and are now all the more doomed because they haven't deployed yet.
Obviously, it was militarily impossible. An effective strategy would have been a direct handover of Lebanese lands from Israel to the international force. That means Israel would have to occupy south of the Litani, and the Lebanese government would have to agree to a direct exchange.
There is no way in hell that could happen unless Israel actually was capable of pounding Hezbollah to the point that they made at least the slightest of concessions.
Thinkingman,
You're right. The 14 March leadership has focused way too much on Assad.
What this conflict has proven is that Hezbollah is more important to Syria than Syria is to Hezbollah. Hezbollah has independent standing power. Assad is now trying to emulate them.
Anyone who believes cutting Syria off from Hezbollah (without touching Iran or beginning to loosen Hezbollah's grip on the Lebanese Shia community) will do anything is delusional.
For an eternal optimistic, I find you very pessimistic.
I am no optimistic, but I still refrain from saying it is too late. At least for the moment.
I prefer to wait yet a few days.
We are in the aftermath of the storm. Each party has declared its intentions. but they didn't really show what they are capable of. For now, it is still just talk. maybe it will prove right, maybe it will prove wrong.
Can you really know ?
@"It is the economy stupid!"
Are you trying to compare Aoun to Nasrallah ?
to simplify it for you, HA is using Aoun, no more, no less. there is no way one can see a peer-to-peer relation between those two.
read my threads about that on my post, and the comments too.
economy stupid,
Nasrallah and Aoun charisma. Who cares about charisma? It's what you do with it.
Nasrallah is wrecking the country and Aoun is a bystander.
Another approaching date with destiny cannot be altered.
Everything has been put in it's place.
1. A weak ,bumbling Israeli leader who takes his orders from devious outsiders in Washington and betrays his nation.
2. A strong and determined enemy with one goal in mind,Israel's destruction.
Iran, Syria and their allies will not be denied their much needed victory for Islam and the Arab face.
Even the Indonesian and Malayasian's who do not recognize Israel's right to exist are chomping at the bit to get their troops on Israel's border under the guise of peace keeping.
3. A Lebanon ,after decades of indoctrination ,are trained to surrender to superior forces and compromise to remain alive.
4.A Global Emperor with no clothes whose failed Iraq adventure has caused him to sacrifice Israel to Hezbollah to get his Saudi ,Jordanian and Egyptian allies off his back.
5. The U.S. and the French brought a Nevillesque agreement before the U.N. which brings us to another fateful date with destiny.
6.A weak and corrupt West is unwilling and unprepared for the clash with Islam.
They are only too willing to offer up Israel as a sacrificial offering to the god of Mecca in hopes that their oil based economies are kept safe.
7. There is Someone greater than martal men who sets all of this in motion and the time comes for the Kingdoms of men to meet their end and for the Kingdom of God to rule in the affairs omf men.
The birthpangs of Messiah Jesus' coming Kingdom rule from Jerusalem can be felt everywhere across His Planet.
The Lanlord returns soon to take control away from worthless ,perverted and wicked men who rule their nations to ruin.
All the Nations have an appointment with destiny that they cannot escape
Joseywales:
"To counter an agenda, you need another agenda."
Spot on. You're fighting ideology here.
It seems that your government is frozen with fear and indecision.
Why bother having a debate on your so-called leaders?
Mona Fayed, a shiite woman, a professor, has to publically take on hizbo while the "leaders" remain silent and grovelling.
Hariri is incredible. Those thugs even murdered his own father (Oh, it was the Syrians, sorry; hizbo didn't do it and had no knowledge) and he still kisses Nasrallah's fat ass.
Whimpanon.
These leaders barely raised a finger to help the internal refugees. Hezbollah, the party under attack, did more for the million displaced people than any of the leaders untouched by the conflict.
this is a very common misconception, not just within the blogosphere but in lebanon in general.
for at least the first three weeks of the conflict, the government was overwhelmingly the primary provider of relief to the displaced. however, due to logistical problems (i.e. the roads being damaged, trucks and convoys being targeted, etc.), the decision was made by the higher relief committee to distribute funds to the municipalities directly, in cash. the municipalities in turn gave the money to parties active in their areas, and the parties distributed the government aid in their own names.
almost EVERY party on the lebanese scene did this, including (especially) hezbollah.
so, in the end, the government plan worked in terms of mobilizing funds quickly and providing relief, but it was a horrible failure in that hardly anyone on the receiving end knew that the supplies were coming from the government, rather than say, nasrallah.
the government contributed SIGNIFICANTLY more money and resources than hezbollah, but HA was smarter about it.
The only thing I saw Saniora do during the conflict was recite the casualty totals and cry. He should have asked for help in flattening the Hezzies. The 800 lb. gorilla in the room has grown to 1,600 lbs. and the only thing Saniora can say to Nasrallah is, "Thank you sir, may I please have another shot to my bear skin with your whip?"
-Elroy Jetson
Your last post is ways closer to the reality than any of your posts i remember.
Frankly i think you still dont get to the core of the matter, which is - Hezbollah is an ideology more than a sectarian movement. On the territories under its control it very effectively integrated this ideology with the social structure creating a proto state resembling in some ways communist movements at their best days. Its difficult to define exactly what is Hezbollah but its not a sectarian or political movement in an ordinary sense.
It can be called islamo-facshism or islamo-communism or something like this. You fail to see it because its still in its proto state. Its something that khomeini was trying to create in Iran but apparently failed and ended with a corrupt and ineffective regime. Hezbollah succeeded in place where Khomeini failed probably because of its small size or some other factors.
Its enough to notice that 100% internal discipline of Hezbollah, talking in acting as one block, to notice that something out of ordinary is happening here. It means that not only it posseses this hiearachical structure but it combines it with total discipline and effeciency.
The point which is missing in almost any discussions of Hezbollah is its ideology and its endoctrinating techniques. Its very obvious for me that much of this cohesion and internal unity of Hezbollah is coming from its ability to feed its ideology to people.
What hezbollah do to peoples minds is probably more interesting and important than what they do to peoples stomachs. Its here where is the crack of the matter. I am not sure at all that thru some wellfare handouts you would be able to move the shiite support base from Hezbollah. Its probably too late for the young generation that grew up in Hezbollah strongholds in the south.
Who won? who lost? it's of no importance, unless the Lebanese people make it really important, e.g.: there is going to be another war; it will probably start with Lebanon and maybe Syria; Iran will be isolated because nobody wants the mullahs to have nukes; (by the way I have been reading that they are the biggest real estate owners in Toronto, CANADA.............this should be disseminated in Iranian blogs); this was a "proving" war, to test and see what Hez. is capable of; the Israelis got plenty of help from courageous Lebanese whom I suspect of pinpointing lots of things; the damage to Beirut was very accurate and controlled; the damaged centered on all the neighbourhoods that Hez. controlled and that ordinary Lebanese "could not get in"; don't cry for me Argentina= don't cry for Lebanon;the important question is: how to get rid of this vermin and their associates and rebuild Lebanon.....when the next round starts again, druze, sunnis, christians and democratic shia should stand united..............how to stop the internal fighting that's of the most importance.....................Lebanon has been manipulated too long by outside forces that have taken advantage of the different groups; Is Nasrallah a palestinian who has done to Lebanon what Arafat tried to do or is he a Lebanese who has done what he wants, whenever he wants and with "no knowledge" by the government of his actions and no concern for the Lebanese people. What a rat. He is now distributing 15000 dollars per family and that's is a challenge to Hariri, Siniora et al...............Are these gentlemen capable of such largese? Are the Saudis capable of such largese? If I would be a "donor" I would offer this kind of help to any lebanese that has not gotten and will not get any money from Hez..........people think...........tjhink and act...............and make it inclusive against the forces that darken the future of Lebanon.
I am going to post this same message in other blogs
To All People of the Good Will!
The so-called Third World war is going on, owing to Russia and United States – for a long time already. Something like 25 years.
Let’s be above the political games. We want peace, as You do. Let’s get acquainted with each other and seek the similarity.
For example: the geometrical figures: triangle, square, circle – they are different, but what’s common between them? That is, for instance, the fact that all of them are figures, they have total area, perimeter, and the figures don’t need to be at war for this reason.
Come here to be our guests. We have streets that are called by names of flowers. We should like to plant the cedars of Lebanon here in Israel, just as King Solomon once had build his Palace from the cedar of Lebanon. They say, it brings peace and harmony.
Let’s understand just today, without putting it off till tomorrow, that we all breath the same way, love, work the same way. You have an ancient culture, and we can learn something from You. And, maybe, You’ll also like something at our place. War is an expensive and senseless amusement which never solves any problems. It’s an illusion that there are victors and losers. All sides are in equal loss. Let us together defeat the war!
Appreciate your interpretation.
A bit of food for thought. I have known from the first days of the conflict that HB has taken much more of a hammering than its let on. HB, Syrians and Iran calls for a cease-fire supported that conclusion. You and some of your collegues have added a bit to that assessment.
On announcement of the ceasefire terms I defined the level of HB accordance with the cease-fire as a litmus test. The interim period provides them some relatively easy targets (and many on the Israeli side have expressed concern). On the other hand, HB does not know what the Israeli response to a HB infringement might be.
As best I am aware HB has not made a single move that might be interpreted as openly testing the limits of the ceasefire. They seem to be work a lot harder on PR and even their having work cut out.
It is now becoming quite clear they were/are seriously wounded, probably not fatally unless the Syrian border is sealed. That means the Army has done its job (despite the justified critism here) and there is a window of opportunity. The question is whether the politicians on both sides of the blue line are capable of utilising it. On this level I am far less hopeful.
I might of course not have a full picture.
"I might of course not have a full picture."
The fact that Puppet Minister Olmert backed down from every one of his stated goal's in his kid gloves conflict with Hezbollah and that two IDF sooldiers were abandoned is a resounding failure.
The fact that Hezbollah is around walking tall and preparing for another even more deadly round is a resounding failure for Israel.
The fact that Olmert went along with such a worthless ceasefire reveals how inept he and his Kadima party are.
The foolish Israeli voters elected the weakest and most corrupt decievers to rule over them.
Kadima is the way to disaster for the nation of Israel .
Israel has fallen backwards in a major way in revealing to her enemies that with a weak and stupid Olmert and his stupid Halutz and stupid Peretz that now is the time to finish off Israel.
To all you stupid Israeli voters who fell for the promises of Kadima and the lies of the Road Map ,now you begin to pay for your stupidity.
CM:
Do you really think that the international community had a legitimate shot at winning hearts and minds in the south? Wasn't the window you speak of impossibly small? With Hezbollah's services and instituitions all but entrenched in the daily mindset of Shia/Southern Lebanese, was there even an opportunity?
From your perspective, the international community should have been preparing for aid well in advance of the ceasefire. For governments with slow, weighty bureaucracies (including orgs. like the UN) isn't that too tall an order?
You speak of Jumblatt's cult status but what of Nasrallah? A word from him saying to spit out the food the West/Sunni nations offer and they'd do it on site.
I don't argue that the window didn't exist, rather I argue that it hasn't been closed yet. A surge of aid could help restore faith in the international community, provided that Hezbollah gives the OK.
There is one way to change the course of events.
The demise of the tubby mullah would be disasterous to hizbo.
Of course, no one wants to risk the consequences. The perceived consequences will happen anyway whether he is offed or not.
It would make sense to arm and pick the time rather than wait until hizbo is back to strength and fatso begins his roadmap to the final solution.
Marcel--
The fact that Puppet Minister Olmert backed down from every one of his stated goal's in his kid gloves conflict with Hezbollah and that two IDF sooldiers were abandoned is a resounding failure.
You don’t get it. The problem was with the IDF. The problem is deep and needs to be seriously addressed. Halutz should be gotten rid of as a first step. His air power will do it all plan was terrible. His neglect of army planning was terrible.
Read some of the accounts of soldiers. The strategy is often incoherent. Many spent most of their time rescuing wounded soldiers or even often dead bodies (which is an absurd indulgence Israel can no longer afford in pitched battles where she hasn’t won control of the territory) or searching for air dropped supplies rather than going after Hezbollah. See the “lone soldier’s tale” blog linked at the Jpost.
Training especially of reserves was inadequate. Israel needs to develop a professional career NCO crops with long experience, instead of relying on promoted conscripts with only a year or two of experience to serve as it’s army sargants.
Israel’s air force is in fact first rate. Israel’s army is nowhere near as good as Israel thinks it is, or as Israel these days needs it to be. Serious reform is necessary. Israel can no longer count on facing hollow and badly trained Arab armies that panic at the first reversal.
here we go again...you continue with the usual "blame somebody..." approach.
you're lazy. get your a** out of the hamam and start fighting, like the hez-bo-llah
does...why can't you do the same? because you're lazy baby...and weak, and you like to
blame everybody around you...
There is only one thing that can help the people of Lebanon, and that is a US strike against Iran, and maybe Syria as well. Until Iran is allowed to Pay-for-Troubles (actually, for murder and menace), nothing will happen.
If US manages to bring dows all bridges in Iran, and bomb all airstrips useless, together with some powerplants, that will significantly reduce mullahs' ability to enforce their will on their public without actually causing civilian casualties.
In particular, that will damage their rule over Azeri minority, and with such an access to the Caspian sea and its oil.
Iran will face a real choice between risking a civil war and disintegration of their country, and their desire to export troubles out of Iran.
I have no idea what the decision makers in US are thinking of, yet a loud voices from Lebanon or Lebanese diaspora demanding some damage to Iran will definitely helpto swing the ballance.
dougjnn,
The buck stop with puppet Olmert and his puppet master, the worthless President Bush.
Olmert sent the confusing signals to the IDF because he was following orders from Rice & Bush who were following orders from the Saudi's,Egyptian's and Jordanian's.
Israel got screwed by the phony ally who sent the ceasefire resolution to the U.N. along with the french frogs.
Many are already rewriting history .
HERE ARE THE FACTS !!!!
aug 10
But then, under pressure from the US, Defense Minister Amir Peretz made a frantic call to Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz and ordered him to stop the division in its tracks. "We need to give the diplomatic process one last chance," Peretz told Halutz. The orders trickled down the chain of command and by the time they reached 366, it had already reached Marjayoun, a stone's throw from the Litani.
With the UN Security Council on the verge of passing a cease-fire resolution, the IDF understood on Thursday that Operation Change of Direction was ending, for better or for worse.
The IDF was disappointed. Senior officers said they had been looking forward to the fight. Reaching the Litani and eliminating Hizbullah from the villages on the way could have provided, senior officers believe, the victory that Israel has been trying to obtain since July 12. By Thursday night, the chance of that happening was drifting away.
The only way to hurt Hizbullah, a high-ranking officer in the Northern Command said, was to use the military. "Diplomatic processes will not achieve the right effect," he said, acknowledging that the incursion up to the Litani was not to be. "The key is the military operation. That is the only way to stop Hizbullah."
But the political echelon thinks differently, and from the first day of this war the politicians, senior officers said, held the IDF back from escalating its offensive and hitting Hizbullah hard. First it was the massive air campaign. Then came the limited, pinpoint ground raids. Only when all that failed did Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his cabinet approve a large-scale incursion into Lebanon and the re-creation of the security zone.
This wishy-washy decision-making process cost the IDF lives, according to one senior officer. "A military force always needs to be on the offensive, pushing forward and keeping the enemy on its toes," he said. "When you sit still for too long, you turn into a target and you begin to get hit again and again."
That is what has been happening. Over the past 30 days of fighting Hizbullah, the army has lost 83 soldiers, 35 of them this week. "That is what happens when you sit still and don't move," the officer said. "The enemy fortifies its positions and gains the upper hand."
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525850003&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Lebanon is only in trouble if you believe the ruse that israel has been looking out for our own interests and that they were doing us a favor by obliterating Hezbollah. I do not have that illusion and will never walk that road. There is one and only one way out for my country: respect Hezbollah and what it stands for and include them a political settlement. Period!
Peace!
http://2351926.blogspot.com/
Emir
You obviously don't perceive the difference between respect and fear, or peace and slavery.
From hatred, emerges only evil.
The Jews have the rabid dogs of Hezbollah to thank ,they jumped the gun and awakened many in Israel to get ready for the big battle coming.
If only the out of conrol dog's had waited to arouse the sleeping Jews ,their plan might have worked.
Now Israel is awake and preparing for battle ,thanks to the stupid dogs of hell.
Thank you hezbollah.
BEIRUT (AFP) - Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora accused Israel of committing crimes against humanity during its month-long offensive on his country.
“This is a criminal act which reflects Israel’s hatred to destroy Lebanon and its unity,” he said Sunday during a tour of Beirut’s bombed-out southern suburbs with parliament speaker Nabih Berri.
“I hope all the international media will transmit this picture to every person in the world so that it shows this criminal act, this crime against humanity that Israel has committed in this area and every region of Lebanon.”
These breathtaking quotes from your prime minister do not bode well for Lebanon. The war will begin again. The Lebanese army will be a legitimate target because the Hezzies will force them to fight. A real tragedy will unfold because of gutless wonders like Siniora.
Fuad makes it more and more clear every day that Lebanon is the enemy of Israel.
The illusion's have been removed and clarity comes.
Israel prepares for round two.
Thanks to Hezbollah's impatience and expert training and Olmert and the left's failure with IDF forces ,Olmert and the left are finished and the IDF knows what it will have to do this time.
No more worrying about Hezbollah supporting civilians and what the U.N.,EU. and U.S. say or do in coming to their rescue .
This naxt wat will make the previous one look like a summer picnic.
Well, it's not quite what I was asking for but I guess this is the most we can expect from a Middle East democracy and justice... Defense Minister Elias Murr Warns Against Truce Violations
"Lebanon warned Sunday it would charge with treason anyone who fired rockets on Israel in violation of a fragile ceasefire that ended a month of warfare, but said Hizubllah was committed to the deal."
The Arabs have been living with lies for so long they don't even see the truth when it falls on their head. The Lebanese are no different. This is probably the beginning of the end for the Christian Lebanese but I'm sure they'll blame Israel to the end. They're so eager to maintain "Arab credentials" but in the end, they are just another minority being squeezed out of the Middle East. The future of the Middle East - it will all become Gaza or Somalia or Iraq, Lebanon included. Failed states with failed ideologies - but they can't face it so they blame Israel & the Jews, & America. But they have only themselves to blame.
Do not forget that Lahoud and Murr have overiding control of the Lebanese army.
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