I didn't believe Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah when he said Hezbollah has more than 15,000 missiles.
I didn't believe any of the Hezbollah cheerleaders who claimed that Hezbollah soldiers are as good or better than most of the premier special forces units outside of the Western world. I took it as a given that they are the best fighting troops amongst the Arab countries, which is not saying much, but better than Iran, Pakistan, India?
I knew firsthand the professionalism of Hezbollah's soldiers. I knew through a close associate about how quickly out of line Hezbollah members were put in their place. And I knew firsthand the professionalism and capabilities of al Manar staff.
Former UNIFIL spokesman Timur Goksel regularly spoke and speaks about the professionalism of Hezbollah. He notes that they plan, strategize, re-plan, re-strategize, and then do that all over again before they make any decision. They think through the consequences of any military activity from multiple different angles: how it will effect Hezbollah militarily, how it will effect Hezbollah politically, how it will effect Hezbollah members, how Shia Lebanese will respond, how Lebanese public opinion will respond, how Israel will respond, how the West will respond, how Iran and Syria will respond.
I always doubted him. I believed him to a degree, but I thought he was exaggerating, even when we spoke just after the 12 July conflict began.
I was wrong.
After reading through the Israeli blogosphere, especially these two posts, I realize just how much damage Hezbollah has inflicted on Israel.
I was right in my basic understanding of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel:
1. Israel has the ability to flatten Lebanon and kill everyone in it
2. Hezbollah can cause a few fires, kill a few people. They can inflict little long-term damage on Israel. They can't put a dent in the IDF or Israeli infrastructure. They can't defend Lebanon from the IDF. Lebanon will be destroyed, while Israel is barely scratched.
This is largely the case.
Hezbollah has enough experience with the international community to know something for a fact that I had a difficult time assuming. I thought of the conflict as being between Israel and Lebanon. I used 1978 and 1982 as my historical markers. Hezbollah thought primarily of the 1990s, when the battle was between them and the IDF.
Israel cannot massively strike all of Lebanon. The Lebanese, the Arabs, the international community, and the Israeli public would not allow it.
Hezbollah thoroughly plans all of their attacks because they know what I know, and they agree with me. Their near-term goal is not tactical.
Their power comes in their ability to define the situation. They dominate all of Lebanon, and they throw Israel into disarray.
Northern Israel is dispopulated. The IDF's reputation has, once again, been tarnished by Hezbollah. Hezbollah continues to fire rockets. Hassan Nasrallah continues to make speeches. Al Manar continues to broadcast, and there's nothing Israel can do about that.
Even more, when Israel tries to take out Hezbollah fighters, they invariably hit Lebanese civilians, thus further tarnishing the IDF in the eyes of the international community, and taking any sort of moral authority away from the State of Israel.
All the while, little attention is paid to Hezbollah's rockets bombarding northern Israel because:
a) they aren't nearly as devastating as Israel's rockets barraging Lebanon
b) due to Israeli political maneuvering over the past two decades, the world has already written Hezbollah off as a terrorist organization. Thus, anything good they do is seen as incredibly positive, and anything bad they do is expected. Hezbollah firing rockets at civilians is not a news story, but them respecting a ceasefire is. Whereas the international community expects Israel to respect every ceasefire and not commit any war crimes.
Lebanese tend to discount reports about Israeli civilian deaths, the harm done to Israel's economy, and the displacement of the Israeli population. What's happened to Israel pales in comparison to what's happened to Lebanon.
However, Israel has been hit very hard. It will recover quickly, but the whole country is effected by this war.
I'm optimistic that Prime Minister Saniora will be able to isolate Hezbollah and reduce their power independent of the government, but Hezbollah remains more powerful than the Lebanese government, and there's nothing that the Lebanese government, Israel, the UN, or Western nations can do about that.
A Chapter 7 UN deployment invariably brings Lebanon into a civil war because the non-Hezbollah, non-Shia Lebanese government would be authorizing the forcible disarmament of a Lebanese political party. To make matters worse, this would be done at the behest of the country that's bombarded Lebanon for over a month, killed more than 1,000 civilians, displaced a forth of the population, and made life unliveable.
On top of all this, Lebanese politicians know that there is nothing guaranteeing that UN forces deployed under Chapter 7 would stay. They could very easily pull out and go home while Hezbollah goes to town taking out rival Lebanese political factions who sided with Israel against them. And they've got the full support of Syria and Iran who would actively support them.
A Chapter 6 deployment does exactly what Israel says it does. It puts a force in place that Hezbollah can fire over. There's no guarantee that the Lebanese Army will deploy in the south, and the situation could easily return to that pre-12 July. It might even get worse.
But anything greater than a Chapter 6 deployment would be a violation of Lebanese sovereignty. Even if the Christian, Sunni, and Druze political leadership support a Chapter 7 deployment, the Shia, the pro-Syrian Lebanese President, and the pro-Syrian Commander of the Army do not. Not taking their opinion into account is undemocratic (even though the President was fradulenting elected, Hezbollah was rightfully elected), but, as one might imagine, a government cannot quite make a decision about deploying the Lebanese Army and embracing foreign troops when the commander of the Lebanese Army does not agree with the decision and the government has no mechanism through which to replace him.
So, this puts us back to where we were on 11 July: at the negotiating table, where I've always advocated is the place we should be.
Hezbollah has been tremendously hurt. Lebanese politicians seem to have maintained their anti-Syrian stances, and the Arab countries seem to be more firmly anti-Syrian.
There are signs that some good might come out of this situation. But we'll have to wait and see.
Sunday, August 13, 2006
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51 comments:
I'm afraid I'm having trouble seeing what good has come of the situation. Specially after having read your analysis (which sounds quite pessimistic to me).
I think your analysis itself is correct. But I'm afraid it's not really leading to the solution I am looking for here.
What we should be looking for, here, as the ultimate endgame, is peace with our neighbours (much ala Jordan) and the ensuing stability. We should also be looking for a truely democratic state in Lebanon, and more importantly a truely sovereign State; A state that is the sole responsible party in the land, with no other arms and militias.
Pie in the sky, I know. But we should be at least THINKING in those terms, if we hope to ever get there. Until then, we are destined to suffer yet more wars, death and destruction. It's that simple.
one of the more clear posts i've read on the topic from your neighbourhood. ultimately, it will depend on hez which in turn makes it depend on iran, syria and lebanon, in that order.
once israel complies with the resolution, if it is attacked again, it will not likely be reined in again too quickly. the worst part is, there will be an implicit green light to respond with less care for 'collateral damage'.
i from lithuania so my view is totally different i know what is propaganda.
this hezbollah and arab propaganda concentration on human suffering. this time
you won. but do you truly won i don`t think so. truly war even did not started
now about 170 jews had died and you say this is defeat gets very funny.
jews will get only benefit from it. finally comic Lebanon army will be in south.
and pressure on Iran begins. its get funny when Arab can`t pronounce
hezbollah equal terrorism. and all world has to know that one jewish helicopter
was shot down. hezbollah scared to recognize what jews every day shoots about 20-40
hezbollah terrorists. so you can really start to count how much hezbollah terrorists
was killd :)
about civilians deaths it looks that arabs are illiterates than jews suggest to
run away it you care you will get it i don`t understand womens which don`t care
abuot there children, which with such joy speak you know i don`t have money so i stay
with my children in war zone it`s truly shows everything. that hezbollah
supporters are like Nazis who are ready to sacrifice theirs and theirs
children lifes for hezbollah.
than silly arabs talk that hezbollah is a part of Lebanon and that hezbollah
legally elected
i can say one sentence it you aren’t? stupid to understand it:
Hitler was elected also
it reminds Vietnam do you know why USA lost war because USA could not attack north Vietnam.
because Vietnam was supported by Russia and could start World War III.
so what do we learnt from this
that jews first need to cut supply from Iran so we leave Lebanon for few moments aside and go
to work on top secret project Irans regimen change.
I am actually quite optimistic about the future now. Here is why..
a. Hezbollah is sufficiently weakened, so their bargaining powere is much more restrictive.
b. Any support the Hezbollah get from Iran and Syria - will not make them any stronger as a chapter 7 resolution which effectively places an arms embargo on Lebanon will mean that the Hezbollah will not be able to rearm themselves. Hence, they will try to use whatever weapons left to strenghten their negotiating hand, rather than use up the last of them.
c. Syria and Iran will not be able to transfer weapons to Hezbollah as they will breaking the embargo and therefore be subject to sanctions...possibly even military action.
d. Lebanon will be getting alot of aid, as well as grants, loans, development assistance which is all going to be used on redeveloping the south - this will erode further Hezbollah support, as it will show that the govt is the one who will be supporting them, not the Hezbollah.
e. There will be a massive military presence in the south, including thousands of troops along the southern border, as well as along the borders with Syria. Everything that will be coming in will be monitored, those side streets used by the Syrias and Hezbollah will effectively be closed down.
f. Rather than seeing anti-syrian leaders being assasinated, expect to see alot of pro-Syrian leaders getting assasinated, and others fleeing to Syria. I imagine there will be a strong spy presence among the international force.
g. The Hezbollah will be fighting for survival both militarily and politically at the end of this - I dont see them winning in either sphere.
you confuse the heck out of me.
you said that HA is the supreme force military and politically in Lebanon right now.and nobody can or dare touch them much less disarm them.
so if this is the case, how do you expect the rest to enter into a negociation with them? obviously they will dictate their will and what ever left that did not get with this war will get on the table of negociations.
“didn't believe Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah when he said Hezbollah has more than 15,000 missiles.”
I am sorry Charles, I just don’t get that. Annan reported in April to the Security Council about a convoy of trucks from Syria to Hizbollah, which it is claimed was carrying 12,000 improved katyushas. Your government gave it transit papers and instructed the Lebanese Army who had halted it to let it pass.
First, if this is true (the quantity, not the convoy, no doubt about that) Nasrallah was preparing to strike at Israel. Even Iran isn’t so silly with its money to send such a quantity to sit and rot. Second your government knew, the report by Annan was public, so your media must have known. Maybe the Lebanese didn’t, but they might have guessed. And the Israelis knew, what did you expect them to do when attacked, say well never mind, we wouldn’t want to disrupt the happy times of the Lebanese about to enjoy the tourist season. Keep our soldiers, bomb our citizens, least we can wear so it can be business as usual in Lebanon.
And then there is Annan. He only reported this one delivery and then assured the Council that he had said naughty, don’t do it again, and your Government said of course not. Happy old incompetent/corrupt Annan then got on with building his reputation and left the Israelis and the Lebanese to be destroyed.
Annan a fool at best, corrupt weakling more likely. And so was and is your Government.
Michael Bebe’s article is in our press today (The Australian),
“Our government, from the very moment the Syrian occupier left, let ships and truckloads of arms pour into our country. Without even bothering to look at their cargo.”
And he says
“At Beirut innocent citizens like myself were forbidden access to certain areas of their own capital. But our police, our army and our judges were also excluded. That was the case, for example, of Hezbollah’s and the Syrians’ command zone in the Haret Hreik quarter (in red on the satellite map). A square measuring a kilometer wide, a capital within the capital, permanently guarded by a Horla army [1], possessing its own institutions, its schools, its crèches, its tribunals, its radio, its television and, above all… its government.”
What on earth did you Lebanese think was happening in there?
And what would be the answer for those who have a voice in Lebanon to this charge of his.
“All those who assume public and communicational responsibilities in this country are responsible for this catastrophe. Except those of my colleagues, journalists and editors, who are dead, assassinated by the Syrian thugs, because they were clearly less cowardly than those who survived”
But finally as many of your compatriots clamour with joy that they are dancing on Israel’s and Israelis graves, what do those of you who at least suspect that Hezbollah is a blight on you and the rest of the world, what do you say to this claim of Michael’s
“Once again, the soldiers of Israel are doing our work. Once again, like in 1982, we are watching – cowardly, lying low, despicable, and insulting them to boot – their heroic sacrifice that allows us to keep hoping.”
He also speaks of crowded restaurants in those parts of Beirut where Hizbollah isn’t, hence the Israelis aren’t touching them. Is this true?
“didn't believe Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah when he said Hezbollah has more than 15,000 missiles.”
I am sorry Charles, I just don’t get that. Annan reported in April to the Security Council about a convoy of trucks from Syria to Hizbollah, which it is claimed was carrying 12,000 improved katyushas. Your government gave it transit papers and instructed the Lebanese Army who had halted it to let it pass.
First, if this is true (the quantity, not the convoy, no doubt about that) Nasrallah was preparing to strike at Israel. Even Iran isn’t so silly with its money to send such a quantity to sit and rot. Second your government knew, the report by Annan was public, so your media must have known. Maybe the Lebanese didn’t, but they might have guessed. And the Israelis knew, what did you expect them to do when attacked, say well never mind, we wouldn’t want to disrupt the happy times of the Lebanese about to enjoy the tourist season. Keep our soldiers, bomb our citizens, least we can wear so it can be business as usual in Lebanon.
And then there is Annan. He only reported this one delivery and then assured the Council that he had said naughty, don’t do it again, and your Government said of course not. Happy old incompetent/corrupt Annan then got on with building his reputation and left the Israelis and the Lebanese to be destroyed.
Annan a fool at best, corrupt weakling more likely. And so was and is your Government.
Michael Bebe’s article is in our press today (The Australian),
“Our government, from the very moment the Syrian occupier left, let ships and truckloads of arms pour into our country. Without even bothering to look at their cargo.”
And he says
“At Beirut innocent citizens like myself were forbidden access to certain areas of their own capital. But our police, our army and our judges were also excluded. That was the case, for example, of Hezbollah’s and the Syrians’ command zone in the Haret Hreik quarter (in red on the satellite map). A square measuring a kilometer wide, a capital within the capital, permanently guarded by a Horla army [1], possessing its own institutions, its schools, its crèches, its tribunals, its radio, its television and, above all… its government.”
What on earth did you Lebanese think was happening in there?
And what would be the answer for those who have a voice in Lebanon to this charge of his.
“All those who assume public and communicational responsibilities in this country are responsible for this catastrophe. Except those of my colleagues, journalists and editors, who are dead, assassinated by the Syrian thugs, because they were clearly less cowardly than those who survived”
But finally as many of your compatriots clamour with joy that they are dancing on Israel’s and Israelis graves, what do those of you who at least suspect that Hezbollah is a blight on you and the rest of the world, what do you say to this claim of Michael’s
“Once again, the soldiers of Israel are doing our work. Once again, like in 1982, we are watching – cowardly, lying low, despicable, and insulting them to boot – their heroic sacrifice that allows us to keep hoping.”
He also speaks of crowded restaurants in those parts of Beirut where Hizbollah isn’t, hence the Israelis aren’t touching them. Is this true?
The Israelis sent letter after letter to the UN about rocket attacks on Israel after 2000 and the passing of 1559. And do the Lebanese really not remember how the Israelis soldiers taken by Hizbollah in 2000, with the assistance of UNIFIL, were returned. Alive when taken, dead when returned, and wasn’t one of them an Arab.
Why didn't your "new" Government invite them to the negotiating table?
And yet again we hear from Lebanon the voices of the self deceived. While it may seem unfair to remind you of this now, if you don’t remember your history you are doomed to relive it.
Hi Charlie (LP),
Good new name. Will reread your piece later but quickly:
I guess one thing that was exactly as predicted: the gutless Lebanese gvmnt.
No surprises there, the intelligence did not fail us: they sucked and apparently plan to suck some more, with full support from the political class
Israel as a whole was completly caught off guard and unprepared for Hezbollah.
They were drunk on the cheap wine of peace engineered by the U.S.
Israeli's elected a party and a lowlife politician who promised to deliver peace by acts of weakness and Hezbolah read them like a book.
Thats why the enemy is bolder than ever and like a shark ,smells blood in the water.
The weakest of Israel,the Kadima party of peace by appeasment and surrender to Islamic terrorists,have they learned that their stupid ways have only encouraged war ?
The delusional Jews actually believed they could make peace with their jihad neighbors by goodwill gestures and surrendering their land .
In their drunken peace state they elected the weakest leader they could find and threw out the old generals who did not agree with national suicide for peace.
While Israel slumbered under the Bush Road Map ,Hezbollah and Hamas prepared for war.
The big question is ;Will Israel wake up and defeat Hezbollah or will Israel go along with another for sure failed plan which follows in the footsteps of every other failed plan before it.
This ceasefire is dead before the sun even comes up on Monday because almost everyone knows what Hezbollah,Syria,Iran and Hamas want.
WHAT THEY WANT IS WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN PREPARING FOR ALL THESE YEARS.
The missiles were always intended to be used from Lebanese territory and there are another 10,000 missiles to go.
Does anyone actually believe they will stop ?
If Israel stops that's going to be their end and thats not happening. The nukes are out and ready for use and Ahmadinejad smells blood in the water.
A wounded Israel thrashing in the water invites more sharks.
a government cannot quite make a decision about deploying the Lebanese Army and embracing foreign troops when the commander of the Lebanese Army does not agree with the decision and the government has no mechanism through which to replace him.
OH, MY!
Lebanon is screwed and can't get out politically through its own efforts. Nasrallah must have known how the deck was stacked months ago. Of course the Lebanese themselves may have had the authority where to place a traffic light or road sign. But the ultimate decisions of war and peace always resided elsewhere, in Syria and Iran.
Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran need this conflict to maintain and extend their power throughout Lebanon and beyond. A cease-fire won't help them and they will never permit it to happen otherwise.
Lebanese citizens MUST risk not just civil war but open alliance with Israel to help escape this pickle. Back to the militia system you go, at least until a way is found to appoint a new Army commander.
Your analysis is very smart. No doubt, when Olmert decided to fight against HA, not against Lebanon, his failure was certain.
However, I think that his decision was not inevitable. Many people in the cabinet, in the media, in the army called for total destruction of infrasturctre in Lebanon.
If Israel had had other prime minister, and in the future she will have it, she would have won.
Anon 4:33,
Hezbollah is the most powerful faction, and they do have the most military might. But they are also restrained by the Lebanese system.
We were in negotiations with them before, and they will have to return to the table, again.
It's because we all live in the same country. There is no way that they can take control of the country when 2/3 or more of the people are against it.
They have been able to strong arm the country through Syrian support, but we are making headway.
Lebanon must be very careful
now as it proceeds forward ....
Its good to hear that Hezbolla
are geniuses at planning ...
so they knew that Israel would
use the force they did after the border raid ??
Thats good now the entire bill for re-building
Lebanon can be handed to Hezbolla ... their brilliant analysis which predicted the Israeli response led to the destruction !!!
People make a big deal about US
supplying the laser guided bombs to
Israel ... well if we did not Israel would have used
the traditional unguided bombs
causing much much more destruction.
In addition I hope the cease fire holds and Lebanese can negotiate the Shebba farms and and prisoner release and that it does lead to
a lasting peace ... because you know what ...
Israel will NEVER
again accept an attack from Lebanese soil ...
If Israel stops the fight now ...
and withdraws according to the resolution ... the Lebanese people better hope and pray that Hezbolla
acts only within the context of the Lebanese Government from now on.
Because if there is another attack
on Israel ... they will consider it an act of war initiated BY
Lebanon and 100 of thousands will be killed ...
Israel doe NOT want to keep fighting the same war over and over again .
The Iranian people also must begin a movement within Iran to move
the ayatollahs away from supporting terrorist activities outside of Iran ... Much attention has been paid to all these fine brave terrorists and their sleeper cells ... well gues what Iranians ...
Any attack on US soil by a terror cell is considered an act of war
against the US by the governmment
that supports the cell ....
I guarantee you that if a Hezbolla cell bombs a US city ...
Tehran will be in flames once the source is identified ...
This notion that US forces are tied up in Iraq is BullShit
US forces in general like most
Iraqi ... and we want to give that country a chance to have a new Government ... so our soldiers and their families are making huge sacrifices patrolling streets
until new Iraqi Army is fully staffed.
This will NOT be the recipe for Iran if Mullahs activate a teror cell or cells ...
The recipe will be total anhilation
of Tehran ... so start pressuring your government internally
find a way to move Iran away
from terror activities.
You have wealth ... you have a nice modern army ... you can be a force for peace and help the Lebanese and the Iraqi and help
the Palestinians achieve peacefull
resoultion with Israelis.
But if your ayatollahs do something stupid your getting wiped out!!!
Same as if Hezbolla does something stupid in say 2-3 years against Israel ... just leave the Jews alone ... its all they want.
Al-Hayat - 11/08/06
More than eight months ago, on January 6, 2006, an article appeared in this column entitled: "Scenarios that 'Call For' A Military Strike on Lebanon and Syria". The article warned that grave preparations and policies were underfoot at the time. It would be well to cite parts of this article.
"There is talk in international circles of scenarios that strike a vital nerve of Syria and Hezbollah's decisions that relate to their survival, and warnings of the consequences to Lebanon and Syria if Israeli cities are struck from across the Lebanese borders. Besides aggravating the situation between the Palestinians and Israel by allowing the pro-Syrian Palestinian factions to act at will, Hezbollah is the most important factor that affects the situation in Lebanon. It has the power to allow steps to be implemented, and it can delay them. For this reason, the responsibility for Israel's bombing and invasion of Lebanon rests squarely on the shoulders of Hezbollah's leadership. Today, Hezbollah must choose between protecting Lebanon from being used and from acts of retaliation, on the one hand, and sacrificing it to serve Syria and Iran, on the other."….
The Syrian and Iranian leaderships may have found it in their interests at this juncture to provoke Israel through Hezbollah and the Palestinian factions, either to draw attention and pressure away from them, or to rally anti-Israeli feelings to them for their own local and regional purposes. Any Hezbollah operation against Israel from across the Lebanese border at this stage will be calculated to incite the Israeli bombing of Lebanon. And any encouragement from Syria to let the situation develop in this direction will mean that Damascus had the intention to provoke the Israeli shelling of Syria, which would enable it to declare to the Arabs that it is in a state of war with Israel.
As for Iran, according to Ali Larijani, Secretary General of the Higher National Security Council, Tehran has already set a scenario for retaliation if attempts are made to force it to abandon its enrichment of uranium. He also added that Iran has plans to drag the region into war. The article in this column, mentioned previously, noted, "This is exactly the scenario that was discussed in international circles: there would be a regional war motivated by Tehran and provoked by Syria. This would necessitate creating sectarian or political party violence among the Lebanese, and stirring problems in Lebanon."….
Finally, again, to cite from the article, there are certain noteworthy points:
"It is said in international circles that the attempt to strike terror in the hearts of the Lebanese by carrying out a series of assassinations has proved to be a failure. The reason is that Lebanon remains united and has not slipped into civil war, as Damascus had hoped. The only alternative open to the Syrians now is to change their tactics completely, both qualitatively and quantitatively, so that the confrontation would be at all levels. This it will do by exploiting all the Lebanese and Palestinian elements to provoke Israel into taking large-scale action to distract attention from the Syrian presence in Lebanon and bringing it to account on the international level for what its security leaders have done."…
“With regards to Lebanon, the article stated, "From a Lebanese perspective, Hezbollah shoulders the greatest responsibility because it must decide once and for all whether it is truly a Lebanese party, or if it will be the instrument of the Syrian-Iranian decision to drag the region into war and turn Lebanon into the inferno to serve Iran's nuclear interests or save Syria from being brought to account for the criminal assassinations it is responsible for. Today, Hezbollah has the choice to prove its worth. Tomorrow, it will face a difficult test."
These words were written at the beginning of the year’”
You should have made Israel your ally. Instead you have made of them your implacable enemy.
Mr. Malik,
Thank you for shedding a new light on the reprecussions of Chapter 7 vs. Chapter 6 deployment. I must admit I was disappointed in the UN decision to use a Chapter 6 route, because I've been looking for any way to deal Hezbollah a harsher blow than it has received so far. Reading your piece has made things a bit clearer.
HIZBALLAH 1 - ISRAEL/USA 0
ARE YOU READY FOR ROUND TWO? THINK HARD BEFORE YOU EMBARASS YOURSELF AGAIN MR OLMERT AND MR BUSH.
LF said...
HIZBALLAH 1 - ISRAEL/USA 0
ARE YOU READY FOR ROUND TWO? THINK HARD BEFORE YOU EMBARASS YOURSELF AGAIN MR OLMERT AND MR BUSH.
--------------
I would say it was 1 - 1
JoseyWales said...
Hi Charlie (LP),
Good new name. Will reread your piece later but quickly:
I guess one thing that was exactly as predicted: the gutless Lebanese gvmnt.
-------------
Interesting. The israelis say the same thing : the gutless Israeli government.
I have to disagree. It is not hard for a guerilla group to inflict casualties on any army when hiding behind women and children.
No way can hezbollah be called professional when they hide behind a civilian population. They are cowardly savage beasts. They would never face Israelis on an open battlefield like real men.
Israel would wipe them out but they foolishly care about the civilian population that gives them cover. Israel could have annihilated all of Southern Lebanon in a week if they used all their firepower.
Charles, you contradict yourself. You say that hezbollah is a great fighting force that rivals western armies.
Western armies NEVER hide behind wome and children. It is simply unthinkable for Americans or Israelis to put civilians in front of them. How can they be "professional" when they do such beastial things? Because the Iranians taught them how to fire anti-tank rockets they're professional? Give me a break.
If hezbollah had Israel's military might, hundreds of thousands of Israelis would have died by now. They would NEVER hold back killing civilians like Israel did.
Hezbollah is like a kid who starts a fight and then runs behind his little sister and screams "you wouldn't hit a girl, would you?"
The one thing they are adept at is using the humanity of morons like Ehud Olmert against them. They're adept at playing the international community and bringing its latent anti-Semitism to the top.
anon 09:50:49 Sunday
""US forces in general like most
Iraqi ... and we want to give that country a chance to have a new Government ... so our soldiers and their families are making huge sacrifices patrolling streets
until new Iraqi Army is fully staffed."" Aug 13
US forces in general like most
Iraqi ... and we want to give that country a chance to have a new Government ... so our soldiers and their families are making huge sacrifices patrolling streets
until new Iraqi Army is fully staffed. jun 2004,jun 2005,jun 2006,jun2007,jun2008
Lets face reality ,The west assumed that their style of government ,freedom & democracy would take hold in Iraq,they were dead wrong from the start ,not understanding the Islamic mindset.
Infidel's bearing gifts will always be infidels.
The idiots at the top ,Bush,Rice, Chaney,Rumsfeld.
HOW LONG CAN THEY CONTINUE TO SPIN FAILURE INTO SUCCESS ?
The U.S. led Mid East peace agenda from Oslo to Madrid to Zinnie,to Wye to Mitchell, to Sharm el Sheikh to Aquaba has been one failure to another and yet Israel continues to hold hands with this unmitigated failed fool as it sinks deeper and deeper.
The Palestinian's should have been defeated and disarmed long,long ago as Hezbollah should have been defeated long ,long ago.
The U.S. peace scam has given protection to Israel's enemies while weakening Israel.
Look at what is happening between Shiite and Sunni in Iraq over three years into the U.S. Plan and ask yourself this question Israel; Why do you still breast feed on the poison milk which does not lead to peace but your destruction ?
EXCUSES, EXCUSES, JUST ADMIT IT. YOU GOT YOUR ASS WHIPPED. HIZBALLAH DO NOT HIDE BEHIND WOMEN AND CHILDREN. HIZBALLAH ARE NOT TERRORISTS. THATS A FACT. KEEP ON TALKING SHIT JUST TO MAKE YOURSELVES FEEL BETTER.
AS AN EX SOLDIER I CAN TELL YOU THAT THE WORST THING A SOLDIER CAN HAVE IS THE FEAR OF DEATH. YOU COULD HAVE THE MOST ADVANCED FIREPOWER IN THE WORLD BUT IF YOU ARE AFRAID OF DYING THEN ALL YOUR WEAPONERY IS USELESS. SOME SOLDIERS RESORT TO TAKING DRUGS, OTHERS REFUSE TO FIGHT, AND SOME JUST PUT ALL THEIR FAITH IN THEIR GOD JUST LIKE HIZBALLAH AND FIGHT TILL DEATH WITH NO FEAR OF DYING.
HIZBALLAH 1 - ISRAEL/USA 0
SOME SOLDIERS RESORT TO TAKING DRUGS, OTHERS REFUSE TO FIGHT, AND SOME JUST PUT ALL THEIR FAITH IN THEIR GOD JUST LIKE HIZBALLAH AND FIGHT TILL DEATH WITH NO FEAR OF DYING.
------------------
Theoretically you may be right. Practically it does nt work this way. Its true that the fanatics would beat normal people in 1 to 1 situations and even 1 to 2 and 1 to 3.
But normal people are better organized , have more money and better technology. During the ww2 thousands of japanese turned kamikadzes. It did nt help them eventually.
LF: what a blowhard you are. You sit behind your computer screen and fire off your word "rockets" from the safety of your own home. Gee, what a hero. If you could fight the war from your pc then you'd be a fine general, huh?
What a maroon. You type in all caps to simulate yelling. So what else do you simulate?
You're a pathetic little man who has already had his glory days, and I bet you're too old for your heroes, the Hezb'allah to take as a real fighter, so you spend your time fighting on the internet instead.
Geeze....get a life.
TEMPER! TEMPER! ITS OK I UNDERSTAND YOU ARE PISSED OFF THAT YOU LOST. I WOULD BE PISSED OFF TOO IF 40 000 OF MY SOLDIERS WITH TANKS, AND FIGHTER AIRCRAFTS, AND CLUSTER BOMBS AND LASER GUIDED MISSILES, ONE OF THE MOST ADVANCED AND FEARED ARMY IN THE WORLD GOT MY ASS KICKED BY A MILITIA. HAHAHAHA.
HIZBALLAH 1 - ISRAEL/USA 0
p.s: im not that old bitch, i can still fight, but its obvious i was needed this time around. hizballah did a damn fine job by themselves.
*I WAS NOT NEEDED THIS TIME AROUND
LF, if pro-Israel people were so angry we lost, why are you the one having to come here and promote your victory so vigorously? Oh, and talking in caps makes you look like a moron.
You probably pee your pants at the first sight of an Israeli soldier.
God bless Israel!
Typical muslim: Happy to fight behind women and children. LF and his animal brethren are courageous muslim warriors putting babies in front of them.
Have some guts and fight the Jews like men.
ONE OF THE MOST ADVANCED AND FEARED ARMY IN THE WORLD GOT MY ASS KICKED BY A MILITIA
So, let's see.
Here's Hezbollah's victory:
1) About $3 billion in damage to Lebanon's infrasctruce
2) Much of Hezbollah's stronghold in Southern Lebanon reduced to ash
3) 1000 Lebanese killed
4) 30,000 IDF troops in between the Litani River and the Border
5) 30,000 incoming troops (half Lebanese army, half UNIFIL)
6) Relatively minimal damage to Israeli in terms of lives and damaged infrastructure
Go ahead, take your victory lap.
Thanks for providing yet another example as to why the U.N. feels the need to produce annual reports on the development - or lack thereof - of the Arab world.
To LP/CM and all the other reasonable Lebanese, I wish you good luck on the recovery of your country and hope that the cease fire will be implemented well and hold, with no loss of future life and property.
"*I WAS NOT NEEDED THIS TIME AROUND"
Translation: "I like to talk (AND TYPE) big, but I chose to sit on my ass while my country burned.
Take that, Jews."
FOR THE MILLIONTH YOU BLIND IDIOTS IM NOT MUSLIM. IM CHRISTIAN. AND LEBANESE. EVENTHOUGH I DONT LIKE HIZBALLAH MUCH BUT I DONT LIKE ZIONISTS EVEN MORE. HIZBALLAH ARE LEBANESE AND BLOOD IS THICKER THAN WATER.
HIZBALLAH 2 - ISRAEL/USA 0
Some IDF soldiers were quoted as saying of HA fighters: "they're not wearing bomb belts, but they're not afraid to die."
I'm pro-Israel/anti-Hizbollah, but I don't necessarily see HA as cowardly. Firing from civilian populations is a strategic choice. If Israel kills civilians, Israel loses something in public support and more Lebanese come to support Hizbollah.
Also, HA really can't fight Israel in the open, since the IDF would kill everybody before HA even saw a soldier.
HA fights as guerrillas have always fought.
I agree with whomever said that bravery doesn't win wars. You win a war with firepower, manpower, and luck. Let's wait a month before we try to decide who won (or loss less) in this war.
In terms of hezbollah losses what i understand from different israeli sources looks like this:
Hezbollah had about 8000 forces after calling up reservists.
2-3 thousands were in the south. From 1/4 to 1/3 of these were killed or seriously injured
The rest of Hezbollah forces were positioned around litani, their second line of defense.
Long range missiles are totally or almost totally destroyed.
The midrange missiles like haider1 are destroyed by 90%. Anyway Hezbollah could nt direct their midrange rockets properly - they hit only open spaces or the west bank. It was a useless weapon.
Most of short range katyushas, the israel's main problem, have probably survived. At least half of them. Means 6-7 thousands .
Nobody knows about anti tank missiles but in the last days the IDF was intercepting Hezbollah communications in the south with messages that they are running out of them. IDF reported that Hezbollah was shooting anti tank missiles by dozens and hundreds every day. Many hit the tanks, some penetrated the armour.
Nobody knows how many anti tank missiles are in their second defense line around litani. Their supply lines have broken down during the last days of the offensive so probably they got enough anti tank missiles to the north but were stuggling to resupply their forces south of litani.
The net result of what you are saying is that Israel and Lebanon are at war. Hezballah is Lebanon whether you like it or not.
If Israel only has two choices: to be so politically correct that she commits suicide, or to flatten Lebanon . . . . what would you do?
so if you don't want Israel to flatten Lebanon, then do something about Hizballah.
Judith said...
The net result of what you are saying is that Israel and Lebanon are at war. Hezballah is Lebanon whether you like it or not.
If Israel only has two choices: to be so politically correct that she commits suicide, or to flatten Lebanon . . . . what would you do?
so if you don't want Israel to flatten Lebanon, then do something about Hizballah.
--------------------------
Most probably IDF would indeed flatten the South Lebanon next time. In the last days after retaking Eit ash Ashaab for the third or fourth time after discovering that the hezbs sneaked in once again into the town , the IDF brought bulldozers and started leveling the place with the ground. I think in the next war there would be only one time street battles, captured places would be bulldozed into the ground. Hezbollah should better reconsider its passion for urban warfare. Next time it may end up in de-urbanization of the South.
Can I come out of my hole yet ?
I'm out of toilet paper and when I pray towards mecca my hands are stained brown.
I'm afraid if I come out from hiding under the Iranian embassy that the zionist forces will get me.
Maybe if I shave my beard and wear a burka I can extend my life span by a few months ?
I think even my fellow moslems plan to hurt me and replace me with a more acceptabe candidate.
They don't like it that I usurp Siniora's power.
Please if you have any suggestions please help me ,I don't like 72 virgin ,I only like little boys.
I'm sad at this point. It's hard to regard it as a Hezbollah victory, other than in propaganda terms. But it seems pretty clear that, so far, Israel and Lebanon have both lost. Lebanon, because of its government failing to confront hez, plus the immense damage to infrastructure, and the extensive loss of life. Israel because it had a month to do what in said it would do - eliminate hez from the South - and didn't come anywhere close to achieving this.
I'm also pessimistic. I don't think there's a chance that the leb govt will be able to negotiate hez into a peaceful disarmed position. Charles: why would hez go along with this? And I'll be amazed if the UN forces disarm them: they'll probably display their usual gutlessness. I'll even be surprised if either the lg or the un cut off the supply routes for rearming hez.
So, I see nothing to be encouraged by here - other than the lebanese people's relief from being bombed (which, I don't think, will be lasting).
The only possibility for a good solution here: that hez are wacky enough to give the idf an excuse to take out emplacements as they return south, and that the leb forces can then simply maintain that new status quo. I doubt it will happen this way, though. If it begins, kofi annan can be counted upon to pressure israel to stop its 'aggression'.
But I hope I'm wrong. Lebanon for the Lebanese.
The last speech by the fat mullah of Hizbostan was very telling.
It seemed that he had some 'splainin' to do:
Somehow he had to reassure everyone (not only the non-shia peasants) that the reason he originally opposed the deployment of the Lebanese army because he was afraid FOR them.
Ok, now that they will be safe, now that the Israelis have exterminated them south of the Litani River, he is for it.
The whole hizo thing is obviously in dissarray. It should be obvious what is going on: It's hudna time. In their very weakened state, they are playing for time to see how they could reconstitute what they had before July 12.
It's a dangerous game for the rest of Lebanon, but the window of opportunity is now. They are not destroyed but they are very badly damaged indeed. They are only interested in trying to figure out how to get back to where they were.
All the brain trust in Lebanon better get together very soon and figure out the formula of how to put the cork back in the hizbo bottle
How are the non-HA supporting lebanese people viewing this ceasefire? Here's one poll from israel, which pretty much reflects anecdotal evidence that I have from my friends over there.
Globes” poll shows drastic fall in support for gov't
Only 6% of those polled think that the agreement achieves most of Israel’s goals.
Globes correspondent 14 Aug 06 17:12
The first political outcome of the 33 days of war has been a drastic drop in support for Kadima and Labor, according to a “Globes-Smith” poll conducted by Rafi Smith.
The survey, which was conducted just before the ceasefire went into effect, reveals that were elections held today, Kadima would win less than 20 Knesset seats (compared with 29 in the last election in February), while Labor would get 12 seats only. This result represents a marked change from the trend during the past month of war in the north, when the public expressed its support for the government and the IDF, with views that could be described as “patriotic.”
The poll also reveals that around half the public think the ceasefire will hold up for a month, while 35% think it will last no more than a week.
Only 6% of respondents think that UN Security Council Resolution 1701 is good and achieves most of Israel’s goals, and only a quarter of those polled think that this is the best agreement Israel could achieve, under the circumstances. 38% feel the agreement is not good but that there is no alternative but to accept it. In all, 66% think the agreement is not a good one.
58% of respondents feel that Israel achieved only a few of its goals, or achieved nothing at all, against 16% who thought so 11 days ago. Only 3% feel that Israel has achieved all, or most of its goals, against more than a third who thought so a week ago.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on August 14, 2006
Charles Malik,
I really like the name and I am not surprised at all! :) Email/call me so we can discuss writing a post.
EO
http://egyptianobserver.blogspot.com
"Charles Malik",
After a month of war you have admitted you were wrong about Hezb.
You now write (above @ Sun Aug 13, 09:28:03 PM PDT) these two sentences consecutively.
There is no way that they can take control of the country when 2/3 or more of the people are against it.
They have been able to strong arm the country through Syrian support, but we are making headway.
The second sentence directly contradicts the first.
You are not a clear thinker.
In your writing the only thing I can ever be sure about is your passion for Lebanon.
When you write (also above)
Hezbollah is the most powerful faction, and they do have the most military might. But they are also restrained by the Lebanese system.
I have these questions:
When Hezb started the war, which brought so much damage to Lebanon and ruined your summer plans, were they "restrained by the Lebanese system"?
The current break in hostilities -
was Hezb "restrained by the Lebanese system" or by someone else?
The Lebanese army announced they will not forcibly disarm Hezb.
In what way do you see that as
"restrained by the Lebanese system"?
Two last questions.
How many more people must die, how many more bombs on Lebanon until you admit you are wrong about who really runs your country?
Lastly, while it's fine for you to have a picture in your head of a vigilant, freedom-loving Lebanon, the rest of the world must live with the Lebanon outside the confines of your skull.
Will you forgive us?
if attacked again,israel should use the biggest weapon in their arsenal(nukes) and make one big buffer zone between them and lebanon. im sure if the islamic facist get their hands on one they would use it the minute they get it. on 9-11 i started to look at the world differently.each day i now know it's a battle between good and evil and i know which side is evil.
Good and evil ? Simple-minded people think like that.
By the way, who is evil ? For the last 30 years, USA killed more civilian people than the rest of the world. Am I right or am I wrong ?
military analysts speaking on Israel radio stations and quoted in national newspapers say the IDF failure to halt daily rocket barrages upon many Israeli cities and towns, including the third largest urban center, Haifa, could embolden Syria and Iran to launch their own massive missile attacks upon Israel in the not too distant future. This possibility becomes all the more ominous given that Syria is known to possess a large chemical weapons capability, while Iran continues to develop its nuclear program.
Some security analysts say they expect Syria to become directly involved in any second round of fighting. They noted that around 30 Syrian tanks moved into the UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights in the past two days—the first time they have done so since the end of the 1973 Yom Kippur war. Although this may only be a defensive move, it is said to be very significant nonetheless. Reports in the Haaretz newspaper today say that dozens of Syrian trucks are positioned just across the international border with Lebanon, loaded with fresh arms supplies for Syria’s proxy Hizbullah fighters, probably including more rockets that can strike Israeli territory. Other reports say hundreds of Iranian “volunteers” (which are thought to be mostly highly trained elite Republican Guard soldiers and commanders) are waiting to cross the border as well.
D.D.
Anon 1:23:
You are wrong, so please check your facts. Since 1976, here is just a sampling of countries with more civilian deaths that the US had absolutely nothing, directly or indirectly, to do with:
Sudan: 400,000 (last three years)
Rwanda: 1,000,000 (1994)
Congo: 3,000,000 (1998-2001)
Chechnya: 160,000 (1996-2005)
Sri Lanka: 65,000
And the list goes on: Tibet, Sierra Leone, Algeria, former Yugoslavia. And you would have to be a contortionist to find US culpability in these events. (In not stopping them sooner, definitely, along with the EU and other world actors -- but that is a different point)
And, if you are looking for government killing civilians outside of wars, look for far worse violators in China, Russia, Iran, Burma, Zimbabwe, none of which you can even find reliable data.
What is the difference between them and the US? There is no freedom of press in those countries, so no one can report on it. We need to use these forums to help us think critically of events, and discount the propaganda we have grown up with.
And for Marcel, unfortunately, I am with you. I just can't see how this ceasefire will be stable. The UN are fine peacekeepers but nothing more, and I don't see how this is a peacekeeping situation right now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Y3ILLVW-rU&eurl=
Very interesting post, that I am linking. I think it sums up the political situation very well, in a way that most people ignore.
Thanks for clarifying things!
Anonymous 01:23:
Good and evil ? Simple-minded people think like that.
By the way, who is evil? For the last 30 years, USA killed more civilian people than the rest of the world. Am I right or am I wrong?
I'm going to side with Deborah on this one. The only thing she left out was Mohammed Farah Aidid killing over 300,000 with starvation; not to mention torture, rape, summary execution and general warmongering (and that was only before the U.S. allowed our troops to be deployed in Somalia.)
Not to mention Saddam Hussein himself with 3,000,000 + skulls in his own backyard.
Before you open your yap I suggest you take a good hard look at the history of the world prior to your feeble attempts at pinning the greatest human atrocities on the US.
War is one thing but you all seem to have cornered the market on genocide and massacring innocent people on a level we humans once thought unimaginable.
unblessed Israel
Stephen_M,
If you've been following the blog, you'll understand why those sentences are linked together.
In responding to comments, I can't explain every reason behind what I say.
Hezbollah is an illegal entity operating inside of a democracy. Within the democracy they are constrained. When they take actions outside of the democratic system, they are undermining the democracy. This is their only chance to exert power, because they are checked within the democratic system (which is a fantastic thing).
They are also limited as to how much military action they can take. The Lebanese are not willing to enter into a civil war. That includes the Shia.
Hezbollah cannot mount a coup, alone. They can do so with help from inside the democratic system. But that help doesn't really exist after the post-Syrian elections. There aren't any pro-Syrian Sunnis or Druze.
I haven't adequately addressed your points, but I have to move on.
I disagree with you in the Syrian outcome: As it has been the main supporter for Hizbollah in this conflict, its victory is now supreme.
This is been a small-scale Vietnam for the Israeli: killing people and obtaining no benefit from mobilizing thousands of soldiers.
I'm sorry it had to be Lebanon's democracy to pay the price, but at least the strenghtening of UNIFIL will be a guarrantee that this doesn't happen again in the short term.
In normal condition, this would be a draw, but it's not. As long as the UN, the US or anyone does not help Lebanon to get rid of Hizbollah, you have rare chances to make it with such an irritable neighbor...
Which brings me to the start: Iran might not be the winner, and that so if the Arab League tightens the ropes on it... still to be seen, though. Syria, on the other hand, has been publicly supporting Hizbollah, and considering they are still at top capabilities, this means they've won.
LF: Your beloved Lebanon needs no more heroes like you. You weren't needed?
Of course you were, but you missed your opportunity to right the wrong imposed on your beloved country by Hezb'allah, then you added insult to injury by jumping on their bandwagon.
Lebanon will never be free of Hezb'allah and their ilk just because of heroes like you. You are hiding behind your safe, little computer screen, lobbing insults at others when you could be helping your country rid itself of a cancer you yourself admitted it has. In earlier posts, you admitted you were not a big fan of Hezb'allah when the war started, but you are now. Well, have a nice life living with what they've wrought on your behalf.
What a pity.
LF said: FOR THE MILLIONTH YOU BLIND IDIOTS IM NOT MUSLIM. IM CHRISTIAN. AND LEBANESE. EVENTHOUGH I DONT LIKE HIZBALLAH MUCH BUT I DONT LIKE ZIONISTS EVEN MORE. HIZBALLAH ARE LEBANESE AND BLOOD IS THICKER THAN WATER.
Somehow that speaks against your being a Christian. Christ said to love and you speak of 'dislike' though your tone suggests hate. Christ said to love all, to love your brother only, even the heathen do that. But anyway, maybe that is how a 'Christian' gets by in your country, . . . so sad, your hatred.
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