Time for Compromises

Now that Southern Lebanon and Northern Israel are witnessing the last attacks before the expected Cease fire on monday at 8 am (Beirut Timing), it is high time to analyse the solutions that the UNSCR 1701 brought to all parties involved in the one-month war that literally destroyed Lebanon, leaving a huge amount of civilian losses on both sides (especially on the Lebanese side).

It is clear that the UN resolution favors the Israeli side more than Hezbollah. Israel has always wanted to have an army on its border with Lebanon: soon, both Lebanese and international soldiers will be filling the Lebanese border line with Israel. Hezbollah and pro-Syrian Lebanese entities have never liked the idea of deploying the Lebanese army on the Southern border under the pretext of not wanting the army to become a "guard for Israel". So on this level, Hezbollah made a clear compromise.
After Hezbollah's ministers approved on the resolution that was unanimously endorsed by the Lebanese government, and after the speech of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah (in which he declared accepting the resolution as well), the "Party of God" showed real flexibility, changing its initial solid stand, and accepting the deployment of the National Army on the border in addition to the UNIFIL. It must be noted here that many Hezbollah responsibles had previously refused the idea of international soldiers coming to the South, describing them as "supported by the enemy", with reference to the US that holds real sway in the UN.

Hezbollah's flexibility is a wise move; but it might also be a necessity. After a whole month of fights, it seems that Hezbollah was about to become short on resources. Furthermore, the pressure of the international community and that of the Lebanese government who all asked for a stop of the bloodshed, left no room for Hezbollah to reject a resoltion that the whole globe approved on.
The air and land invasions importantly weakened Hezbollah and it was clear that the usually very Charismatic Hassan Nasrallah was not in his best days in his most recent TV appearances. There are speculations about where the General Secretary of Hezbollah is based right now: People say he might be in Syria or in Iran; my personal opinion would let me say that he is most probably in the Iranian embassy in Beirut - a taboo target for the Israelis, because any attack against this embassy would implicate a direct attack on Teheran, and this is something Israel was clearly not ready to dive into.

Even though Hezbollah might have accepted the resolution because of a necessity or in order to avoid showing any weaknesses on the ground that might be dictated by a shortage in trained men or in weapons, i will give full credit for Hassan Nasrallah primarily and for the Lebanese Government who all contributed importantly to letting this resolution pass despite the fact that the balance goes slightly to Israel's advantage. There were comments by all Lebanese groups on the resolution, but as the leader of the Lebanese Forces, Dr. Samir Geagea, put it after his meeting with Prime Minister Siniora: There is always something better than anything in life, but let us see the positive outcomes of this resolution, mainly the immediate cease fire that we have always asked for.

Hezbollah's initial compromise is not an absolute one though. A total end to the conflict already implies a coming compromise from the Israelis: the two kidnapped soldiers will not be released without a prisoners' exchange. Hezbollah's leader repeatedly assured that there is no way to liberate those soldiers except through an exchange, "even if the whole globe asked for that". The kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers was the starting point of the war; if Hezbollah achieves the liberation of Lebanese prisoners, then they would have achieved something from their side.

Ending this bloody conflict will require several compromises from all sides: Hezbollah started by the first one. Israel will soon follow. But bigger -and more difficult- steps are to come, the ones related to the implementation of UNSCR 1559. How will the question of Hezbollah's weapons be solved? Will Israel leave Shebaa Farms and include them in the zone of deployment of the Lebanese and international soldiers?

All those are important questions for the future. Any sustainable solution must be a global one. It must take into account the full implementation of the UNSCR 1559.

But for the time being, the 1701 is more than a good start: it will stop the blood flow on one hand and it will allow Lebanon to recapitulate progressively on the other hand. Both parties understood that there was no way to end this war on the ground. Diplomatic means are the only solution. Let us hope that no major barriers will face the fighters for peace who truly need an end of all forms of violence in the region. Now we can hope that airports, ports, schools and universities will re-open soon in Lebanon, and that our Land of the Cedars will head for a rebuild for the nth time but hopefully for the last time. Lebanon, at your service!