Where we stand right now

To put it mildly, Lebanese are unhappy.

The domestic political situation is going to drastically change in the next two days.

No maybe political statements have been made from the 14 March camp, but Druze leader and regular Lebanese rhetorical firestarter Walid Jumblatt announced that he will hold a press conference on Thursday entitled, "We will not surrender to Assad and Nasrallah's conditions."

The tone in Lebanon has already changed. According to friends in Beirut, not even the Shia were happy with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's post-ceasefire speech.

The Shia community is the most vulnerable right now. Hezbollah is using fierce rhetoric, most likely, to intimidate other Lebanese politicians and sects from criticizing them and to delay any talk of their disarmament. This rhetorical move is sending shivers down the spines of most Shia because now is precisely the time to talk about Hezbollah's weapons. We were talking about them before in an effort to prevent something happening like what just occurred. Now, the urgency to talk is even greater.

Hezbollah's rhetoric is frightening many Shia because they are without homes, food, electricity, medication, money, roads, utilities, and other necessities. They could take the fight against Israel. They can't take much more. And they definitely can't take arms against the people who most recently supported them when they were in need; the very people who currently in a much better state than those who lost their homes.

Many Shia claim that if Hezbollah doesn't provide them with support very soon, they will no longer be able to support the organization. Many Shia were willing to support Hezbollah through thick and thin because Hezbollah took care of them. In Dahieh Jounoubieh (the southern suburbs of Beirut which is primiarly Shia and where Hezbollah's headquarters are located), Hezbollah was referred to as chebab (guys) who took care of all sorts of mundane problems.

Now that they have truly suffered for Hezbollah, the Shia want something in return. Their houses are gone. Their furniture is gone. Their loved ones are gone. And they want to know if Hezbollah will help offset their losses. In his speech, Nasrallah claimed he would. But most likely that support will be too little, too late.

14 March Leaders

Simultaneously, Prime Minister Saniora is showing no signs of backing down. He has the support of the Arabs. He has the support of the United States, France, and the United Nations. He has the support of the majority of Lebanon.

Walid Jumblatt has all the support he needs: the support of the Druze community. PM Saniora will speak diplomatically. Jumblatt will push the envelope.

If anything, the 14 March leadership hates the Syrian regime more than before. The Arab nations seem to be ever more vexed with the Syrian regime. The promoters of Bashar Assad in the United States seem to have quieted down recently, and their voices didn't count for much, regardless.

Hezbollah does not have the strength to bully around the Lebanese government like it did before. They very well could face isolation if they do not play their cards correctly. What could aid in this occurring would be tearing Shia Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri away from Hezbollah. Doing so probably won't be difficult. The threat alone of freezing his bank account filled with bloody money will get him singing a different tune. We'll see if other Shia leadership, like Hussein Husseini, are willing to speak a more moderate line.

Assassinations to Come?

The main concern right now is that political assassinations will strike Lebanon again, like they did in 2005. Walid Jumblatt noted in the Wall Street Journal that he and Prime Minister Saniora are likely targets. Add to that list any Lebanese politician, especially a dissenting Shia leader, who goes against Hezbollah or the Syrian regime.

President Assad's regime threatened in July that an enlarged UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon would yield a consequence similar to the US Marines in '83. Assad in his speech praising Hezbollah's "victory" targeted the 14 March leadership as Israel's allies in Lebanon.