Instability will Continue

Minor clashes occur almost daily throughout Lebanon and receive little coverage in the media.

The latest clashes between Lebanese Security Forces and youths in Ouzai, the attack on the army barracks in Verdun, and the vandalism at the Charles Helou army barracks show the willingness of anti-government forces to use violence against the government in efforts to overthrow it.

Prior to the 12 July war, the Army was a respected institution trusted by citizens. When the army acted - even when they killed civilians, as occured during the benzene riots of 2004 - it had the full support of Lebanese citizens. The derek (gendarme), before they were reformed in 2006, were often ridiculed as weak and incompetent. The derek dealt casually with any conflict they were sent to regulate. When the government sent the Army, you knew they were serious.

The Army was the only institution/symbol of Lebanese unity respected by all sects.

Now, the Army is a target. Why? For the answer to that, we must look to what changed during the last few months: the Army's mandate to deploy in the south and disarm Hezbollah.

Verbally denouncing the Army is still taboo, but it seems there are other coercive ways being employed to attack the only universally respected government institution.

The effort is to make both the government and its most effected and respected institution, the Army, look weak.

Hezbollah claims the Army cannot protect Lebanon from Israel. That was an easy statement to make before, when the Army was not deployed in the south. Now that the Army is deployed and protecting Lebanon effectively, Hezbollah must find some way to make that Army, and the government behind it, look weak.

The Syrian Connection

Simultaneously, Hezbollah and Michel Aoun denounce the government, while calling for the creation of a "national unity" government.

Not only does creating a "national unity" government go entirely against precedent and undermine the democratic process, but it's a thinly guised veil to aid Hezbollah and Syria.

The government is currently limiting Hezbollah's power. The international community, particularly Arab countries, are exerting enormous influence over Syria and Hezbollah. If Hezbollah manages to get a position in the government, they will be able to:

1. Strengthen their military positions within Lebanon, thus undermining the 14 March coalition and the UN

2. Allow a window through which Syria can sneak back into the country

3. Stop the international tribunal to try Rafiq Hariri's assassins

The Syrian regime has been actively commenting on Lebanese politics, using threatening language about the UN presence and its effort to stop arms from flowing to Hezbollah, pushing for a "national unity" government, and meeting with Lebanese leaders calling for the overthrow of PM Saniora's government.

The public verbal attacks against the government coupled with the violent attacks against respected government institutions are part of the same campaign.

The instability is going to last.