Friday, November 24, 2006

Lebanese Economy

The US dollar is dropping in value. Given that the Lebanese Lira is pegged to the dollar, this could be a fortunate development for Lebanese industrialists.

Lebanese exports would be cheaper for international consumption, creating greater demand.

Unfortunately, Lebanese industry was destroyed during Hezbollah's summer war. Investors are unlikely to build or rebuild given that Moody's has further downgraded Lebanese bonds.

Since Lebanon imports more than it exports (and many of these imports come from the Euro-zone), the drop in the dollar means that products will be even more expensive. And Lebanese tariffs aren't helping lower the prices.

Of course, Syrian products aren't heavily taxed crossing the border, and they are cheaper (although often of lesser quality) than European goods. So, more money will probably flow to Syria, which supported Hezbollah's war that destroyed Lebanese industry.

Instead of working to increase investment in Lebanon, the businesses, banks, and industrial organizations are calling for a national strike in support of the International Tribunal. Instead of petitioning other countries for funds and working to create a better and less restrictive business environment, our banker Prime Minister is busy brokering deals between supporters of violence and supporters of justice.

Lebanon moves from crisis to crisis, as the youth continue to move abroad to seek employment opportunities.

11 comments:

Bad Vilbel said...

Interesting timing for your post, Charles. I was thinking along those lines not 15 minutes ago, and made the following post on my blog: LINK

Anonymous said...

Excellent analysis, Charles.

I didn't know you had a background in economics. You explain quite a few difficult concepts concisely.

It really is a desperate situation.

Sottovoce said...

I think the aim of the Lebanese economic organizations' move was not a strike in the usual sense of the term, but an attempt to bring pressure to bear on ALL political sides to stop haggling and get down to work on a solution. The closure was basically observed by the banks and some major concerns. In fact, the mere closure of the banks is pressure enough. The economic situation is appalling and if the political crisis continues, Lebanon can kiss Paris III and any other aids and investments goodbye. However, whether the move can bring results is doubted by some who fear that Hezbollah is precisely waiting until Lebanon is on the verge of total economic and financial collapse to force their conditions on the rest.

Enough BS said...

Well as Josey wrote on his blog, there can't be any economy when a terrorist militia is creating havoc in the country, so fuck the economy for now, let's deal with Hezbollah first.

Salma said...

i say instead of fucking the economy, we fuck each other, because the economy fucks us everyday anyway, whether it's bad or good. Saad's pockets are stuffed forever, YEAH, ALRIGHT!!

bodhisattva said...

salma,

you're not serious are you? :)

lol

salma said...

no, i'm kidding, saad is very very poor.

Charles Malik said...

Whoa, Salma! My family reads what I write. Some courtesy, please.

shafik said...

This movie shows the link between Hezbollah, the summer war, the murder of Pierre Gemayel, the industrial organizations and the Syrian regime.

lebanonnewindustry.blogspot.com

Bad Vilbel said...

The Syrian (blackmail) demands:


http://vilbel.blogspot.com/2006/11/and-finally-it-comes-out.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061126/ap_on_re_mi_ea/syria_fixing_iraq

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