Will the Assassinations Prompt Sectarian Clashes This Time?

Tony at Across the Bay has an excellent post on the correlation between Syrian threats toward Lebanon, the threatening statements of pro-Syrian outlets in Lebanon, and then actual violent attacks occurring.

He also points out that the Hezbollah and Amal ministers in the government somehow always manage to resign right when decisive action is taken regarding the Hariri tribunal. The first time they froze the government was after the cabinet approved forming the tribunal. Now, they've completely resigned to make sure that the government cannot give the UN tribunal its approval.

Both Tony and Hassan note that Syria often forewarns and then takes indirect public credit for assassinations the regime support, as occurred with Bashar Assad attacking the Lebanese press after journalist May Chidiac was nearly assassinated.

Hassan believes an assassination is in the works, and thinks that a Sunni religious figure will be targeted with the intention of starting sectarian clashes between Sunni and Shia. Sectarian incidents between the two groups have already occurred, and the tension is very high. The Christian community did not take the sectarian bait throughout 2005, even though every assassination that occurred after Hariri's targeted a Christian. No one expects the Sunni community to respond in the same manner, and the Shia community has already proved that they are willing to respond with violence when they aren't even provoked (ie, the head bashing in Sassine around election time, and the rioting after Nasrallah was parodied).

Rumors are running rampant that sectarian clashes began immediately after the Shia ministers resigned from the government. A friend in the Future Youth Organization said that young people no longer feel safe going out in the evening, and that the FYO was expecting bombs to go off the night the Shia ministers resigned. This, obviously, did not occur, but people are preparing themselves for the worst. Sadly, preparing oneself for violence, like stockpiling weapons, often makes one too quick to respond aggressively when violence is not necessary.

There has been much discussion (including on this blog) about the divisions within the Christian community. Interestingly, this division might make the Christians safer. The Christians proved last year that they would not respond to violence with violence. With the Lebanese Forces in 14 March and Michel Aoun aligned with 8 March, the Christian community will not be at the center of any sectarian clashes for, perhaps, the first time in modern Lebanese history.