All Over?

The Doha negotiations were never meant to solve everything. They were meant to stall the violence until after the summer tourist season is over.

Lebanon now has a concensus president to provide legitimacy to Lebanese "democracy." Now, all Lebanese leaders can appeal to their foreign sponsors for more money. The businesses owned by these same leaders will profit from the Lebanese community abroad and brave foreign tourists who descend on Beirut this summer to party before the fighting starts again.

At least civilian lives will be spared...



My prediction: there won't be major clashes until the late fall. In late September or October, grumbling will begin. Then, some group will threaten to take to the streets. Then, a protest will occur, but it won't get violent. However, the government will be deadlocked, and everyone will be unhappy.

In November, Syrian and Iranian leaders will watch the American elections closely, and then listen to statements from the victor. They will begin planning, but won't take action until Bush is safely out of office and does not have the authority to go to war.

January 2009, tensions will increase, most of it having to do with the electoral law and the timing of the elections.

Then again, this is Lebanon. No one expected Nahr al Bared. Something else might pop up this summer.