Arab League Delegation Creates Path to Resolution

The Arab League negotiated between pro-government and opposition forces to create a 6-point plan:

1) Things must return to what they were before May 5, 2008: the government must respond to the Army Command statement and hand the two decisions over to the army; All arms must be withdrawn from the streets and all roads, the Rafik Hariri International Airport and the Beirut Seaport reopened; and the Lebanese army must take charge of national security and civil peace.

2) There must be agreement on returning to dialogue on the national-unity government and electoral law. This agreement must be crowned by the end of the sit-in the eve Army Commander General Michel Sleiman is announced as a consensus candidate for presidency.

3) The (Lebanese) dialogue will begin as soon as the clause 1 is implemented, on Friday May 16, 2008 in Doha.

4) All parties must promise to refrain from returning to arms or violence to achieve political ends.

5) The dialogue is to reinforce the rule of the Lebanese government on all Lebanese lands … for the security of the state and its citizens.

6) Political leaders will end their use of political and sectarian incitement and accusations of treachery at once.

Unfortunately, it seems like March 14 leaders will end up making large concessions.

The call for dialogue immediately, beginning tomorrow, puts the opposition in an advantageous position. The pro-government factions need to meet, strategize, and come up with a solution to face the opposition's demands. The opposition does not negotiate genuinely, and constantly changes their demands. Their only interest is placing obstacles in the path of the pro-government factions.

Supposedly, the opposition will receive its veto-wielding 1/3 of the cabinet, and will be able to block any decision the government takes. The 14 March Coalition will agree to this because it believes that the government created in Doha, Qatar will only be temporary, before 14 March claims a massive victory in the next parliamentary elections Their goal is to placate the opposition, but not allow the opposition to take power and undue all of the 14 March initiatives that came into existence since the creation of the government in 2005.

Allegedly, Future Movement leader Saad Hariri only cares about the Justice Ministry. The 14 March factions no longer care about the ministries of Interior and Defense. The forces under the command of these ministries, which are currently headed by members of the 14 March Coalition, refused to protect Beirut and protect the government they are sworn to serve.

The Finance Minister Jihad Azour is one of the best ministers in the government. He is a technocrat, but as he is a current member of the government, he is perceived as a 14 March member. Many 14 March leaders commented to me something to the extent of, "Why should we care about balancing the budget and sticking to the prerogatives of the Paris III accords, if the opposition denies any of the efforts to stabilize the economy?"

Most likely, technocrats like Culture Minister Tarek Mitri will disappear, and politicians with extensive experience in graft and corruption will take their places.