The Beirut airport, currently the Rafiq Hariri International Airport, is being targetted for attack by Hezbollah, according to Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt.
I have no idea why he is publicizing this now. The countries supplying Unifil with troops and support all know that Hezbollah has its own monitoring system of the airport. Every American pilot who landed at the Beirut airport knew the exact vacant apartment from which Hezbollah radar stations tracked their approach to the airport. The technology to track aircraft is simple and easy to purchase on the legal market (let alone what you can get on the black market).
Hezbollah has outposts in Ouzai that monitor incoming aircraft. They can easily shift the location of their tracking devices, but most NATO military aircraft (ie, Unifil planes, US military planes supplying ammunitions for Nahr al Bared, and even Amro Moussa's private government sponsored aircraft) have the ability to track those who track them.
Check out the specs they are offering on private jets. You can definitely get a radar tracking system in your next GulfStream, Lear Jet, or personal Boeing or Airbus. I'm sure Saad Hariri, Issam Fares, and Najib Miqati have them.
In Beirut, you don't even need radar to track aircraft. From any tall building, the naked eye is a decent instrument to use to track incoming aircraft into the airport. Much more can be done the higher up in the mountains one goes. Any radical with a surface to air missile can set up base on the Rmleit al Bayda beach, or any seaside tall building, and take potshots at incoming planes. Send a monitor to Cyprus, infiltrate Cypriot government monitoring systems, or install your own system in the generally ungoverned Turkish Cypriot area and you'll have even better equipment with which to monitor aircraft in the Eastern Mediterranean.
One doesn't even need a missile to take down aircraft flying into Beirut. The Serbs took down a US F-117 Nighthawk stealth plane with normal technology in 1999. Military analysts at the time claimed automatic weapons fired in the right direction might have contributed to taking down the aircraft; thus sophisticated missile weaponry was not needed.
The Israelis know this and use countermeasures. During the 2006 war, I do not recall that Israeli aircraft - planes and helicopters - were shot down, despite lots of random gunfire and anti-aircraft weaponry pointed in their direction. During that war, it was visible to the naked eye in Beirut that Israeli helicopters flew up the coast and attacked Dahieh without meaningful retaliation.
If Hezbollah or others decide to attack international aircraft, that is a tremendous escalation. However, the risk is always there.
Why publicize it, now? Is a March 14 politician or foreign personality being targetted? Does Jumblatt want the government to take further action against Hezbollah prior to the presidential dialogues? Perhaps he just wants everyone to be mindful that they are taking risks whenever they fly in and out of the country?
Thursday, May 01, 2008
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13 comments:
This in interesting, especially in light of earlier comments he made, imply Hezb' implication in the assassinations. This shows a marked escalation; Joumblat maybe setting the stage to claim a more direct implication for Hezb' the moment the next assassination takes place.
Interesting theory. Gunning down an airplane would be a severe escalation, that could flame the whole region. I doubt that Hizballah would go so far now.
Just a small correction: One Israeli helicopter was shot down, on August 12th, 2006. All 5 crew members (including one female soldier) were killed.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525858767&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
And in a somewhat connected storyline, Naharnet is reporting today that 3 Iranians and a Lebanese from Dahieh were arrested while surveilling the residence of Samir Geagea in Meerab.
I don't think the timing is coincidental to Jumblatt's announcement.
Having said that, I, for one, wish more M14 leaders and media made the effort to expose all the "above the law" and "parallel state" acts that Hizbullah has been committing for years. The PR machine has been way to ineffective, when compared to the amount of conspiracy theories and accusation the Hizbullah propaganda has managed to brainwash their followers with for years.
Somehow, the Lebanese are supposed to believe the almighty Israelis/CIA are always behind all sorts of hairbrained conspiracy theories involving anything from stealing our water, to poisoning our food or whathaveyou, yet somehow we can't bring ourselves to call out the sinister stuff Hizbullah's been pulling under our noses all this time.
Some idiots out there are still busy idolizing Hizb for being a "Resistance" movement...
So your point of view is that since you can gun a plane from elsewhere, then it's ok for Hezbollah to monitor the airport.
BV,
You are right. NOW Lebanon, Wikipedia, or some other site needs to devote a page to cataloguing the ways in which Hezbollah and other parties undermine the Lebanese state.
The website should be more of an indictment than political propaganda. It should read similar to a court briefing than to typical Lebanese political rhetoric.
The facts speak for themselves.
Vox P.,
That is not at all what I am insinuating. I am asking why Jumblatt wants to release this information to the public now, as opposed to years ago when the rest of us knew about it.
What purpose does it serve? It is easily observable that planes are vulnerable to attack in Beirut. If one has the technology on board one's plane, it is easy to trace back the radar signal beamed at one's plane. This is well known not just within security circles, but within the Lebanese population.
Why release the information to the public, now? What purpose does it serve?
Check this commentary on th same subject (not to reproduce the whole thing here).
Thanks
Hanibaal
http://lebanoniznogood.blogspot.com/2008/05/bravo-jumblatt-but-where-are-your.html
BV,
I agree with you. Hezbollah is acting with impunity. It is true, and they are doing so to a significantly greater deal than Aoun or Skaff.
However, as Walid Jumblatt is currently showing to Hezbollah (and more so to the Arabs and Iran), they cannot ignore Lebanon. Like it or not, they have to work within the system, even if they have the power to wage war against that system.
The situation now is much different than in 1975. M14 has to at least provide the appearance of giving Hezbollah an opportunity to come clean, given that it is a Lebanese party.
If Hezbollah is deemed to be working against the interests of Lebanon, which is a determination that comes with agreement from a plurality of Lebanese (which must include at least a few Shia voices aside from those already aligned with M14), then the Lebanese state, not individual militias, must take action against Hezbollah.
Including Hezbollah in dialogue acknowledges that they are Lebanese. Negotiating with them allows them to have their say, even if they are the ones boycotting Cabinet sessions, and their allies are preventing parliament from meeting. All of this will presented to the Lebanese people.
This is M14's outreach to the Hezbollah supporting population.
Within any dialogue, as Jumblatt is showing, Hezbollah will not be allowed to be a dictating partner. They are a partner in negotiation because they have power and are democratically elected. However, if they want to be part of Lebanon, they must prove it.
Bringing them into the fold allows them to prove their bona fides. If they choose not to, then other Lebanese factions - even Hezbollah's allies, will have a difficult time supporting Hezbollah; like when Hezbollah illegally arrested Karim Pakzad, the French Socialist delegate.
Charles,
Your logic is flawless, but it's 2 years late.
You say:
"M14 has to at least provide the appearance of giving Hezbollah an opportunity to come clean, given that it is a Lebanese party."
What pray tell has M14 been doing for the past 18 months? "They've already given HA every opportunity to come clean. I think it is pretty clear by now that HA has no intention to do so willingly.
I guess where you and I differ is that you think M14 needs to keep "giving HA time" for a bit longer. I frankly think no side should've ever been given a free pass, as they have, but even if they were given a free pass, it should've expired around the time of Lahoud's tenure. HA got to essentially paralyze the government and parliament. The red line should've been drawn with the presidential election. At that point, M14 should've, as you've suggested, given HA one more chance to come clean, and then no more chances.
Instead, we've had one whole year of chances, initiatives, dialogue, and whathaveyou. HA has taken the upper hand, while M14 suffers from a siege mentality, just waiting and hoping some salvation comes from abroad.
Do you honestly believe this, when you write:
"Bringing them into the fold allows them to prove their bona fides. If they choose not to, then other Lebanese factions - even Hezbollah's allies, will have a difficult time supporting Hezbollah; like when Hezbollah illegally arrested Karim Pakzad, the French Socialist delegate."
You really, seriously, honestly, believe that Aoun, Frangieh and Skaff are gonna have trouble supporting HA because the latter kidnapped (not "arrested"..When private citizens with no authority detain people, it's kidnapping!) Mr. Pakzad?
You honestly, truly believe that you can still "prove their bona fides"? HA has proven what they are or aren't for a long time now.
I hate to sound so snide (i truly am not), but your comments here smack of someone who's living in denial and still deluding themselves by waiting "just a little bit longer". This smacks of exactly the same mentality (and you called me on this earlier) that some "realists" have about "engaging" Syria. Try once and get bitten. Fine. Try again. Get bitten again. Fine. 3 times...4 times...I've lost count. HA has ALREADY BEEN GIVEN every opportunity to compromise, to rejoin the fold, or whatever else you want to call it. They've been given a gazillion chances, at great lengths (and at the detriment of our state institutions, thanks to gimmicks like "Hiwar") to find some kind of way to rejoin the national project, and still save face. They have proven beyond the shadow of a doubt what their true intentions are. What more are you waiting for them to prove?
BV,
I would agree with you if you could tell me one thing: how are you going to solve the current situation?
Don't forget: the current situation is not only about Hezbollah and Iran, but about Syria, coupled with militant Palestinian groups, coupled with the general bickering of the Lebanese parliament.
I'm not saying wait, or even give them one more chance. The government, individual political parties, and even foreign governments don't have the power to do away with Hezbollah. M14 has done a phenomenal job since summer of last year acquiring foreign allies willing to make Lebanon a priority.
I don't want to overread anything what you write, but it seems like you are advocating civil war. Unfortunately, if this is what you are arguing, I strongly disagree for one main reason: ironically enough, the Lebanese government and its institutions are stronger right now than they have been in decades, and with foreign support, they are becoming stronger.
As I noted in my previous comment, the situation now is not similar to 1975. Pan-Arabism has nowhere near the amount of influence it did then. The Soviet Union is not funneling weapons to its myriad allies. Most importantly, militias are not arming; the state is increasing its monopoly over violence.
The only faction in Lebanon that is directly flaunting the authority of the state is Hezbollah, and that is becoming increasingly more apparent to supporters of the opposition and supporters of Hezbollah, who will remain voting Lebanese citizens (and they vote much more regularly and uniformly than voters from other regions).
Sure, you can point out the Palestinian militias and a few other Lebanese fringe groups, but these groups have no popular support. Hezbollah tried to keep the government out of Nahr al Bared, and Hassan Nasrallah was forced to eat his words. The Shia community supported the government.
Hezbollah is being further isolated. The Shia community is starting to see that Hezbollah is not always beneficial for Lebanon.
M14 is in a better position now than ever, and it shouldn't risk everything by trying to isolate Hezbollah, which is something that Hezbollah could easily overturn by throwing a million man party in the downtown and invade the Serail, or starting a war.
M14 must use the power it has and the power of its foreign allies, but it cannot pretend it has the power to do things it does not have the power to do.
Charles,
I hate to say this. And I am certainly not ADVOCATING war. But I am afraid that after all other avenues have been tried (which they have), war or partition (which is de facto on the ground anyway) are inevitable.
It's either that, or give in to the HA/Syrian project once and for all.
No one wants to hear what I have to say (hence my use of the word "denial") because people want to cling to the hope that some magical solution is going to appear and save us all. People don't want to accept the fact that it's "do or die" for Lebanon. It really is. The signs are all around us. As much as I hate war, I believe "force" is a necessary evil at some point.
The optimists can keep on hoping for a miracle cure until the day they wake up to find there is no more Lebanon. At which point you'll wonder why you ever thought civil war was unacceptable. It's a very sad and unfortunate truth, but it is the truth nonetheless.
Stop deluding yourself. You are about to be eaten by a Lion. He's 2 feet away, getting ready to lunge at you. And you're telling me "I'm against hunting Lions."
Sure, that's admirable. But you're gonna be dead in about 30 seconds if you don't defend yourself.
You guys are so sad. First I hope, as an American, that a pro-western government will prevail in Beirut. But that doesn't mean I'll respect them, they'll just be another bunch of puppets like the egyptians, the saudis, etc... And I promise you that either us or the Israeli Defense Forces will crush the last elements of Hezbollah resistance, but I'll still respect them as an honorable enemy who stood and fought for their country regardless of the odds. They can't truly be arabs, they must be foreign mercenaries.
Thanks for the great info.
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