Is the War Over?

Have the Sunnis been defeated? Has Hezbollah followed the Hamas in Gaza model?

People on the street are saying that Saad Hariri is holding his forces back, that the real clashes will start when he wants them to. However, it appears to me that Amal and Hezbollah (now, simply referred to in my building - even by Shia - as "the Shia") have taken over without needing to spill much blood.

This is a war of intimidation. Hezbollah/Amal have proven that they have the capability to not only start chaos, but to quickly take over any and all Sunni areas and completely emasculate Sunni leaders by burning down their mulimillion dollar houses and forcing their multimillion dollar television stations off the air.

The thugs firing RPGs on my street are teenagers with weapons who have gone up against Hariri's private security, and won.

People in my building keep saying that there is a Blackwater-style South African trained mercenary army in Koreitem that will take back the neighborhood. I seriously doubt that given the way Future has been so quickly isolated.

Unfortunately, the anti-Shia racism going around now is at its heights. People are saying they will fire all of their Shia employees, and many are itching for personal reprisals; ie, "I can't take on Hezbollah and Amal thugs who refuse to let me out of my house, but I can beat up this poor Shia taxi driver, so I will."

Hezbollah has been very wise to attack the Sunnis. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has been wise to say that he is putting his trust in the Lebanese Army and security forces knowing full well that they would crumble in the face of opposition. If the Hezbollah attacked the Druze, they would have a real "take no prisoners" war on their hands.

The Sunnis were not prepared for this battle. Hariri took the lead, and he has been completely isolated. This has larger ramifications, given that Saudi Arabia and the Sunni sect now seem discredited and exposed.