Political Realignments and New Government Initiatives on the Horizon

Michael Young offers excellent analysis on the possible realignments of political alliances that could take place in the coming days and months.

Undoubtedly, Sleiman's election will boost the strength of Metn parliamentarian and local zaim Michel el-Murr, and reduce the popularity of Christian parliamentarian Michel Aoun. Sleiman and Aoun have similar bases of support, which will begin to realign themselves.

A few other possible developments:

1) a realignment of Christian politics in north Lebanon. The new electoral law will dramatically empower local zaim Sleiman Franjieh, excite the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, and might allow the return to politics of Orthodox Christian billionaire Issam Fares. March 14 northern Christian figures who will likely try to continue serving in politics - like Boutros Harb, Nayla Mouawad, Elias Attallah, and Farid Mkari, and probably unlike Samir Franjieh - will have to readjust, realign, and perhaps even run in different electoral districts (ie, one March 14 Maronite will align him or herself with the Tripoli Sunni politicians to take the Maronite seat there, which is currently held by Elias Attallah).

2) a realignment of north Lebanon Sunni politics.

a. Tripoli is home to a number of billionaires. Former interim prime minister Najib Miqati mounted a publicity campaign a few months ago, which might be an early effort to return to politics. His portrait can be seen all over the city, often in the company of images of Rafiq al Hariri and the mayor of Tripoli, and sometimes alongside images of executed former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
The Future Movement has strong support in Tripoli, but the coalition of independent Sunni leaders like Miqati and billionaire Muhammad Safadi could force Future to make bigger compromises than in 2005.

b. the Tripoli Sunni billionaires club might push for a larger role in the Lebanese economy. Under Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri, there was talk of making Tripoli into a free-zone similar to that in Dubai's Jebel Ali and what is intended for Aqaba, Jordan. There has been discussion recently of re-opening the Qleiaat Airport, despite a few constraints.

c. The Sunni region of Akkar, close to Tripoli, is Lebanon's poorest, and has the highest birthrates. Many residents of Akkar serve in the Lebanese Army, and they might receive greater attention from President Sleiman and Future leader and possibly soon-to-be prime minister Saad Hariri. Economic aid and government support for Akkar is desperately needed. Of parallel concern is that Akkar and Tripoli are hotbeds of Islamic extremism, including some groups with ideologies similar to Fatah al Islam.

d. The north Lebanon region could become extremely productive very soon. The province of Koura is agriculturally fertile. Tourism to Bcherre, Douma, Batroun, and Tripoli will aid the local economies. Chekka is a major site of industry and concrete production. Minor government efforts for greater transportation and integration between the countryside and Tripoli could spur even greater private investment from the wealthy Lebanese community abroad.


3) if Sleiman is smart, he will start building a support network in Jbeil. Outside of Roger Edde's investments in the city of Jbeil, the rest of the region receives scant attention from the Lebanese government. The Lebanese Ministry of Tourism fails to promote the myriad tourist attractions in the region, like:

a. excellent spelunking, camping, and hiking in Afqa;
b. skiing in Laqlouq;
c. the riverside restaurants in Nahr Ibrahim;
d. development opportunities for the beaches and seaside communities between Byblos and Batroun;
e. the multitude of religious and pilgrimage sites including the Mar Charbel monasteries, and the many Shia religious schools.

4) What will happen in the Bekaa? Unfortunately, I see little hope on the horizon for my region. The area will likely continue stagnating.

a. Hezbollah's security zones will prevent any major real estate development in the region.
b. The Salafists in the central will continue to worry the Christians and Shia.
c. The Armenians in Anjar continue to leave at a steady pace.
d. The Beirut-Damascus highway is still a 2 lane road in many places, and probably won't be a major priority for a number of years.
e. Wine companies continue to pop up and the old standards are increasing production, but unless the alcohol tax and the value-added taxes are reduced on wine exports, the industry will continue to rely on the relatively low level of domestic consumption. Remember that a good portion of the Lebanese population does not consume alcohol, and when they do, it is Almaza, 961 beer, araq, whiskey, and imported wine and spirits. Given the state of the Lebanese economy and the increasing cost of food, wine is not the first concern of most Lebanese shoppers.
One sign of hope: 961 Beer is working with German aid organizations to teach Lebanese farmers in Bekaa to grow hops. Allegedly, this will solve multiple problems simultaneously:
i. provide hops to the nascent Lebanese beer industry;
ii. provide Lebanese farmers with steady revenue from an agricultural product that is currently rising in price and already extremely expensive;
iii. reduce the incentive to grow hashish and other illegal substances. Allegedly, hops is worth more than hashish. Given the legality of the product, the farmers will receive greater local payment, not have to pay protection money to thugs and corrupt officials, reduce alliance on local tough guys, like Hezbollah, and have an incentive to make long-term plans for their farms given that they will no longer have to worry about their crops being burned or their property being seized.