Syria's Plan

In a conversation with a PSP activist, we put the rumors we heard together, and found that there might be greater plans involved in these recent clashes. This is speculation, but it seems like there is a specific pre-constructed narrative being followed, and the weak link in the chain providing most of the information are SSNP guys.

It seems like Hezbollah's putsch is part of a larger plan to legitimate a Syrian return to Lebanon.

Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP tried to start clashes with the Sunni Future Movement and Druze PSP. Hezbollah assumed they would win after a week or so of clashes in Beirut and then dictate the narrative, claiming that they "liberated" the area. They followed their plan to take over all of Beirut, and then humiliate Hariri at the end by storming his compound. The only problem was that the March 14 parties refused to fight back and took away the clashes Hezbollah needed to legitimate their attacks ex post facto.

The plan was always to give territory back to the Army, but that is because the Army is merely a national symbol and placate the feelings of the community, while Hezbollah would remain in charge.

The SSNP would be the vanguard, placing posters of Syrian President Bashar al Assad everywhere. Hezbollah would be the enforcers, and try to keep some level of legitimacy by claiming that the SSNP guys are the Syria supporters. Amal and Berri would be the negotiating partner.

Hezbollah started clashes in the Bekaa simultaneous to the clashes in Beirut to make it seem like the fighting is national, but also to begin the process of providing Syria with an excuse to re-enter the country.

The SSNP forces were to rally in Metn (the suburban Christian area north of Beirut) a few days after Hezbollah started the clashes in Beirut (ie, some time around now or within the next few days). They would first join the fight against the Druze, but then use some action by other Christians in Metn as an excuse to begin clashes there. Given that the SSNP started organizing yesterday simultaneously throughout the country, it seems they are coordinating to strike soon.

The SSNP in the north will aid the supporters of pro-Syrian Sunni leader Omar Karami and other pro-Syrian factions in Tripoli. The SSNP in Koura would be the vanguard there, while the pro-Syrian northern Christian leader of the Marada Party Sleiman Franjieh would act like a combination of Hezbollah and Amal in Beirut.

Within a week, the Syrians would start griping about security on its border. Some attack would probably be staged on its border. They would use this as an excuse to enter Lebanon in some way.


Not Falling For It

According to my PSP source, March 14 is trying to foil Syrian plans, again. The Syrians have tried to cause an outbreak of violence before:

1) Assassinating Christian figures in 2005.
2) Setting off bombs in Christian residential neighborhoods in the middle of the night to terrorize the community and start a backlash.
3) Sending Hezbollah supporters through Ashrafieh on regular occasions with clubs to attack and intimidate Christians to spur a response.
4) Use mass demonstrations, riots, and attacks on the Serail to try to overthrow the government with superficial Christian support from Michel Aoun.
5) Spur on Palestinian militants to bomb Christian buses, and then have them create chaos in the north.
6) Bomb prominent sites (ABC mall in a Christian area, shopping center in Sunni/Shia/Druze Verdun, Aley shopping street) and try to get the populatin flustered.

Sadly, they might have accomplished their goal this time. Reprisals might begin soon. The attack on the Sunni funeral in Tariq al Jdeide today might be the beginning, and residents of Hamra are really angry with the SSNP for terrorizing them and destroying their shops and neighborhood.