According to members of the Amal Movement, Michel Aoun is needlessly blocking the creation of a new Lebanese cabinet. Amal officially denied these claims today, but party activists claim what they told me yesterday is true.
Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun intentionally requested particular ministries in Prime Minister Siniora's government to block the formation of the cabinet. Aoun has long been interested in the Justice Ministry, so it was immediately suspicious to Siniora's staff and Future Movement members that Aoun requested the ministries of Finance, Public Works, Health, Labor, and one other (possibly agriculture?).
These ministries are the few that have publicly been spoken for. Current Finance Minister Jihad Azour strongly requested that he continue in the job. He's done a phenomenal job, and Siniora and Amal thought that there is no reason he should not continue. Tripoli MP Muhammad Safadi has made it known that he is interested in the Public Works ministry, which he presided over in the previous government. The most skilled and reputable Amal minister in the previous government Khalifeh, presided over the Ministry of Health and Amal publicly made it know that the party wants him to continue the excellent job he did previously. The Ministry of Labor always goes to an extreme pro-Syrian figure.
According to Future and Amal members, Aoun is disingenuously engaging in the formation of the cabinet. He had no interest in electing Michel Sleiman president. He did not want Siniora to return as prime minister, and he knows that his political party and support will forever be transformed if the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) takes part in the government.
According to Amal sources, Aoun is doing this because he is taking orders from Syria, which is furious that it no longer has a stranglehold on Lebanon. My take is different:
First, Aoun is the sole leader of the FPM. According to the press, the FPM is divided between followers of Aoun and idealistic Christian technocrats who do not like the direction sectarian, feudal Lebanon is headed. Recently, party divisions came to light during the FPM internal elections, which were postponed.
Second, the FPM is not alloted 5 ministries in the next government. Hezbollah originally insinuated that it would give Aoun its share of seats in the next government, but then reversed their decision.
Had Aoun been elected president, he would have had tremendous power. He could have solidified his domination over the FPM and begun digging further into the support bases of other Christian leaders. He would have been able to appoint all of the members of his family and inner circle to well-paying positions (ministries, advisers, generals, ambassadors), but also have plenty of room to provide positions to supporters from the other side of the party.
Now, Aoun's choices are limited. He was not allocated enough ministries to do what he wants to do, which is:
a) appoint his relatives, like Gebran Bassil, as ministers;
b) appoint two opposing FPM leaders from the non-inner circle camp to ministries and bait them to feud with one another, thus maintaining Aoun's position as undeniable party leader, moderator of internal party conflicts, and also preventing any other FPM leader from using his ministry/power base to begin rising in the party and becoming a leader in his own right;
c) appoint non-Christian ministers to advance Aoun's secular, non-sectarian credentials;
d) minimize the influence of Hariri, Siniora, Jumblatt, Geagea, and Gemayel and steal press time away from, while also coming closer to dictating the terms of the new cabinet;
e) to further expand Aoun's and the FPM's base throughout all of Lebanon, including all sects and regions. If Aoun could do this, he would simultaneous become i) the only truly national Lebanese leader, thus the most powerful politician in Lebanon, ii) the undeniable Christian leader, including in Koura and Zahle which are still ruled by allies, iii) the unopposed leader of the FPM, iv) in a position to challenge the constitutionality of Sleiman's election and call for a new election, v) fully advance his own agenda, and become the savior of Lebanon.
It's a nice dream. However, there is no room to compromise in Aoun's vision. He wants power to implement his dream. FPMers defend Aoun because they believe in his dream. March 14ers cannot get beyond Aoun's tactics, and for obvious reasons like intentionally blocking the formation of a new cabinet, undermining negotiations, destroying opportunities for compromise and unity, and not requesting what he really wants, all while claiming moral superiority.
In the cabinet negotiations, Aoun probably doesn't have much of a plan. His advisers are probably competing amongst themselves.
Aoun cannot honestly negotiate, because specific ministries are not what he wants. He wants it all, and asking for ministries others have already spoken for is only a stalling device. He doesn't really want the ministries of Finance, Justice, or Foreign Affairs. What use to him are ministries like Labor, Agriculture, Environment, and Youth & Sports, if every March 14 journalist in Lebanon is waiting to catch the FPM in instances of government graft. His cabinet seats won't even be enough to delay a vote, let alone block anything. He will become just like everyone else.
The Amal people claim Aoun is targeting Future for obvious reasons, but also targeting them because Aoun is angry about the Doha negotiations in which Amal leader and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih al-Berri forced Aoun's hand, and allegedly disrespected the FPM leader. Berri emerged as the leader of Lebanon after the Doha round to a greater extent even than Hezbollah.
Aoun has been parochialized. He no longer has the support powerful Metn MP Michel el-Murr, and is watching President Sleiman steal away Aoun's multi-sectarian support in the military, in Jbeil, and in the Christian community at large. During the next parliamentary elections under the new electoral law, Aoun will undoubtedly lose seats to the local leaders he empowered in 2005, like Murr, Skaff, and Franjieh, lose blocs who supported him in 2005 like Nemattallah Abi Nasr's bloc in Kesrouwan, lose the entire kada of Jbeil to President Sleiman, and watch former loyalists peel off and join with more powerful camps.
Not only this, but Aoun is too old and too senile to envision many more years of dominant power and clout. The FPM cabinet ministers will form their own bases of support separate from Aoun. The TV cameras will flock to them before making the trek to Rabieh. Aoun's own OTV is failing so miserably that it might not be on the air for long if it continues in the same way, and if it changes, Aoun probably won't have nearly as much influence over it.
Aoun thinks of himself too highly to take a minor position like that of a minister. He was commander of the Army, for crying out loud! He has more support than Amine Gemayel or Michel Murr. Gebran Bassil should be his Pierre Gemayel or Elias Murr, while he gives commands from above and accepts visits from ambassadors and foreign dignitaries.
This is a last minute effort to appear powerful and influential, but no one is playing Aoun's games any more. Amal and Hezbollah used Aoun when they needed a Christian spokesman and Christian cover to do Syria's bidding. Now, they no longer need him and are just as irritated at his antics as March 14 figures have been for years.
Aoun has a dream, but he has no idea about how to get there. In the meantime, he is creating nightmares for his countrymen, but he might not even be able to do this for long.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
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Aoun is evil. Aoun is evil. Got that. Phew, lucky we have Aoun to blame for everthing, no? Wonder who will be found to replace him when he dies? Bassil perhaps.
Just one question though - you say that according to 'Amal activists' it is Aoun who is blocking formation of the government. Sorry, but wasn't it the Amalites who were camped out in the city centre for 2 years trying to be just as disruptive?
You also say that your Amal contacts believe Aoun is doing Syria's bidding. Whose orders was Berri following when he kept parliament closed for a year?
I just ask because it seems that Amal can be politically disruptive, intransigent (like the Aounists), rampage through West Beirut killing their fellow citizens (unlike the Aounists), but somehow it is always der general who gets the blame.
Curious double standards, no? Even more curious coming form someone who does not believe the whole 'our arms are sacred' rot.
Does Amal get away with murder - literally - just because Berri delivers his threats without shouting?
Charles,
Many thanks for your insights. This blog is having a very interesting second youth! Keep it up!
The battle for Lebanon
The battle for Lebanon is a battle between a relatively rich minority; numerically that is, among Lebanon’s four million people and a poor majority. The minority controls the political and economic fortunes of the country. The majority refuses to be dominated. The divide is political and economic, not religious or sectarian; though, Lebanon is home to 18 different religious sects, all recognized in the Lebanese constitution.
The minority encompasses factions within the Maronite and other Christian communities, traditionally known for their anti-Syria, pro-France and the United States affiliation led by former president Amin Gemayel’s Phalange Party and Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces. Additionally, the minority includes Sunni Muslims, traditionally pro Syria but changed sides recently, led by the young Saudi/ Lebanese billionaire Saad Al-Hariri’s Future Movement, and a large faction among Lebanon’s Druzes who had been pro-Syria but changed sides too; led by Walid Junblat’s Progressive Socialist Party.
The majority includes Maronite and other Christians; led by former general Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement. The majority includes also the downtrodden Shiites; led by Hassan Nasrallah’s Hezbollah and Nabih Berri’s Amal movement, in addition to Sunni Muslims; led by former prime minister Omar Karami and Sunni cleric Fathi Yakun’s Islamic Movement of Lebanon, and Druzes; led by Talal Arsalan’s Druze Democratic Party. The poor majority looks to Syria and Iran for support.
It is difficult to know with accuracy the religious and the sectarian make-up of Lebanon’s population. The last census was taken in 1932. That census gave Christians more than half of the population, with the Maronites a third of the population. However, Christian numbers have been declining since 1932 due to relatively low rates of population growth compared to Muslims’ growth rates, especially the Shiites, and to migration from Lebanon to Europe and the Americas.
Today, the general consensus is that Shiites represent just over 40% of the Lebanese, Christians roughly 35%, Sunnis around 20%, and Druzes about 5%. That no census since 1932 has been allowed to take place reflects the seriousness of Lebanon population issue.
The rich minority may be guesstimated at about 40% of the population. In the 2005 parliamentary election, this minority won the majority of the seats: 72 out of 128 seats, or 56%. The poor majority, estimated at about 60% won 56 seats, or 44%. The skewed representation in parliament is the result of a flawed election law and the power of Saad Al-Hariri’s billions. The rich oppose a meaningful change to the election law; the poor support the change.
Saad Al-Hariri is a son of Rafiq Al-Hariri. He holds Saudi and Lebanese nationalities. Rafiq Al-Hariri was born in 1944 in the Lebanese port city of Sidon to a Sunni Muslim family of modest means. He moved from rags to riches swiftly. In 1965, he left for Saudi Arabia, working as an accountant in a construction company. Fifteen years later, Rafiq Al-Hariri was on the Forbes top 100. After his assassination in 2006, his family members featured in Forbes’ list of billionaires in 2006. He reportedly left an estate of $16.7 billion. Saudi Oger, a construction company owned by Al-Hariri is a thriving business in Saudi Arabia today specializing in the construction and maintenance of profligate palaces for the senior Al-Sauds.
In 1978, Rafiq Al-Hariri was made a citizen of Saudi Arabia. He returned to Lebanon in the early 1980’s; implanted by the Saudi ruling family in response to the absence of a viable Sunni leadership in the country and the rising power of the Shiite population since the early 1960s under the leadership of the cleric Musa Al-Sadr (disappeared in 1978 while on an official visit to Libya).
The Shiites have been for centuries the downtrodden of Lebanon, suffering abject poverty, illiteracy, and ill health. Marginalized and discriminated against as second-class citizens by the government and society, Lebanon’s Shiites have suffered centuries of indignity and humiliation. Their liberation started in 1959 with the arrival to the coastal city of Tyre of Musa Al-Sadr, an Iranian-born Lebanese Shiite cleric, son of a long line of distinguished Shiite scholars. At the turn of the nineteenth century, his ancestors escaped Ottoman persecution from Tyre to Iraq’s holy city of Najaf, then to Iran.
A close religious connection between Iran and the Shiites of Lebanon had been established some five centuries ago. Shah Ismail made Shiism the state religion of the Safavid dynasty (1502-1737) instead of Sunnism, presumably to fight the Sunni Ottomans. Lacking the clerics to convert and teach Shiism to his subjects, Shiite scholars from southern Lebanon (Mount Amel) were invited to establish schools and train Persian clerics in Shiism. Ever since that time a theological bridge between Iran and Lebanon flourished.
Musa Al-Sadr awakened in the Shiites of Lebanon a sense of dignity and worth unknown before. He replaced their innate self-pity, sorrow, and submission by a fiery spirit of hope, defiance, and revolution. In 1974, Al-Sadr formed the Movement of the Disinherited, a political movement aimed at social justice. In 1975, the Amal movement was formed as the militia wing of the Movement of the Disinherited. After Al-Sadr’s disappearance in 1978, the momentum of his work gave rise in the early 1980s to Hezbollah, a militia trained, organized, and funded by Ayatollah Khomeini’s Revolutionary Guards. In addition to its military wing, Hezbollah organizes extensive networks of social development programs, running hospitals, schools, and social help for the poor.
In Lebanon, Rafiq Al-Hariri started to establish his power base through making large donations and contributions to various groups and causes. He laid the groundwork for the 1989 Taif Accord, which Saudi Arabia organized. Taif ended the fifteen-year civil war (1975-1990) and paved the way in 1992 for Al-Hariri to become prime minister. He was prime minister from 1992 to 1998 and again from 2000 until his resignation on 20 October 2004. Hariri was assassinated on 14 February 2005.
Until the cataclysmic events of September 11, 2001 took place Rafiq Al-Hariri was content to rule in Lebanon under Syria’s domination. Syrian troops entered Lebanon in 1976 at the request of the Lebanese. They put an end to Lebanon’s civil war. Syrian troops were in Lebanon for 29 years before being forced to withdraw unceremoniously on April 26, 2005, in accordance with Security Council Resolution 1559 of September 2004. After 9/11, however, matters changed.
The Bush administration’s response to 9/11 was to want to reshape the Middle East; change the regimes of Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon plus Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip; and, force a settlement in the Arab Israeli conflict on Israel’s terms. US forces occupied Afghanistan in October 2001 and Iraq in April 2003. Saudi Arabia would play a major role in Washington’s unfolding plans.
That 15 out of the 19 murderers on 9/11 were Saudis threatens catastrophe to the Al-Sauds. Fearing America’s retaliation, the Al-Sauds performed an act of preemptive surrender. Events since 2001 suggest that the Al-Sauds have become even more obsequious and obvious in their submissiveness to Washington than ever before.
Traditionally, Saudis traveled the more than a thousand kilometers or so to Lebanon as tourists seeking temperate climate, breathtaking mountains, beautiful women, delicious cuisine, and abundant alcohol. Post 9/11, Saudi Arabia’s interest in Lebanon took a new purpose; install in Beirut a pro Washington government, destroy Hezbollah, and change the regime in Damascus. The instrument would be a Trojan horse loaded with Saudi money called Al-Hariri.
Since the 2005 parliamentary elections the Al-Hariri/ Gemayel/ Geagea/ Junblat alliance, known as 14 March alliance, has been in control of the Lebanese parliament and the cabinet. Prime minister Fouad Seniora has been for years an employee of Al-Hariri companies serving as finance director. Seniora was made finance minister in Rafiq Al-Hariri’s cabinets then prime minister in 2005 by Saad Al-Hariri and his Saudi handlers. The 14 March alliance succeeded in removing Syria’s troops from Lebanon in 2005.
The Saudi plan, however, has run into trouble. Hezbollah proved to be more resilient than to be sidelined easily. In July 2006, Israel failed to destroy Hezbollah despite 33 days of relentless bombardment from the air, land, and sea using the most sophisticated weapons that destroyed much of Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure and killed about 1,000 civilians. Also, when Lebanon’s cabinet decided on May 6, 2008 that Hezbollah’s communication network should be dismantled and that the head of Beirut’s airport security must be removed, Hezbollah reacted violently forcing the cabinet on May 14, 2008 to reverse the two decisions. In the aftermath of this showdown, government and opposition representatives reached on May 21, 2008 in Doha, Qatar a power-sharing agreement in which the Hezbollah-led opposition increased its seats in the cabinet from six to eleven out of 30 seats; winning a veto power over the cabinet decisions.
Syria objects to Saudi Arabia’s political encroachment of Lebanon. Syria and Lebanon have been over the millennia one society. Natural Syria has always signified Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. A look at the map shows why. Lebanon, a small land of 10,230 square kilometers, is surrounded by Syria from all sides (375 kilometers), the Mediterranean Sea to the West (225 kilometers) and a strip of land to the south bordering Israel (79 kilometers). Less than two-hour car ride separates Damascus from Beirut. Many of the families in Beirut and Tripoli, for example, have branches in Damascus and Homs. Syrians and Lebanese share the Arabic language, values, customs, habits, food, music, let alone centuries of being ruled as one entity. They became two separate states after the French mandate ended in the mid 1940s.
Syria fears that threats to its own national security could come from Lebanon in two ways. First, Damascus worries that a Saudi controlled government in Lebanon would compromise the defenses of Syria’s own border with Israel. Given their contiguous geography, the military defenses of the Syrian and Lebanese fronts need, in Syria’s view, to be closely coordinated if the Syrian front is to remain viable. Post 9/11, Riyadh’s intentions and policies became suspect. Under such conditions, Syria would strive to keep Lebanon’s southern border from falling under the control of a Saudi controlled government in Beirut.
Secondly, Syria considers Wahhabi intolerance towards other Islamic sects and religions as a threat to Syria’s age-old religious and ethnic harmony. To Syria’s ruling Alawites, Wahhabi belief that the Alawites, indeed all Shiites, are non-Muslim heretics could endanger the very existence of the Alawites and their regime. To most Syrians, Wahhabism is a primitive doctrine exploited by the Al-Sauds to subdue the populace in the name of extremist interpretation of Islam; an anathema to Syria’s moderate Hanafi Sunni rite, let alone Syria’s other religions and sects. As such, Syria would resist Saudi Wahhabi attempts to make Lebanon a gateway to Syria. It may be predicted that even if Syria reaches its own peace agreement with Israel in the future, Damascus’ would continue to strive to keep Lebanon free of Wahhabi control. That certain factions amongst Lebanon’s Maronites and moderate Sunnis, let alone the Druzes, have found it politically convenient to ally themselves with the Wahhabis is like the lamb befriending the wolf.
As far as Syria is concerned, Lebanon is not for sale to Saudi Arabia.
Elie Elhadj; Author: The Islamic Shield
http://www.universal-publishers.com/book.php?method=ISBN&book=1599424118
Blog: http://journals.aol.com/eeh100/daring-opinion/
Anon 10:14,
I don't see the relevance of your comment.
Amal is regularly scolded on this blog. This post was about Aoun, not about Amal.
I don't care for the tit-for-tat of Lebanese politics. Defend your zaim by defending his actions, not by attacking everyone but your party.
Dear CM,
If you will read my original post with a lack of defensiveness - if that is possible in this country - you will notice that I did not attack you or 'your za'im' nor did I suggest at any point that I am either with the FPM, Aoun, Jesus Christ or Mohammad. To clarify, as I did post anonymously, I am a foreign resident in Lebanon and while I have been here for a long time, I still do not understand the mentality that allows parties like Amal and, until recently at least, Hezballah, to literally get away with murder and then heaps criticism on intransigent old farts like Aoun. Is it because you expected more of him and are disappointed? Or is that you expect Amal and Hezb to act like thugs and so don't criticise them as virulently? It's something I have been wondering about for several years now, not a reaction to recent events.
The question was a simple one, perhaps poorly framed, your reply, however was both ill-mannered and hasty. How disappointing. I had expected that someone who is normally more considered would try to reply in a fashion that didn't belittle his own intelligence.
The confusing thing about your blog mr Malek is that you have never specified why it is that you object to the FPM's attempts to impower the dissanfranchised Lebanese majority?
Why is it that you support feudal, sectarian warlords over this grassroots people movement?
If Aoun dies in bed, what happens?
I started a thread in favour of a peace deal between Lebanon and Israel on the Al Mustaqbal site. I got several replies. When I attempted to respond to them I got the message that I had been banned. Reason: "I don't like it". Date the ban will be lifted: "Never". My thread was deleted.
Charles,
Who is blocking the formation of the new government NOW? Aoun? Or the corrupt bickering feudal and traditionalist warmongers like Geagea and Gemayel and all the Christian poodles of Hariri?
Hanibaal
"The confusing thing about your blog mr Malek is that you have never specified why it is that you object to the FPM's attempts to impower the dissanfranchised Lebanese majority?
Why is it that you support feudal, sectarian warlords over this grassroots people movement?"
--> I guess when your name is "Charles Malek", you think you can fart higher than your asshole, and you are a member of the "Feudal" club.
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