Apologies for not blogging over the past few weeks. After the conflict, I needed a break.
As predicted, the Doha Agreement merely ended the chaos in Beirut, elected President Michel Sleiman, and provided tourists and Lebanese abroad with the semblance of stability.
Violence continues to break out across Lebanon. Tripoli is the most recent site of full-scale sectarian, political violence.
Violence rages in Palestinians camps. As usual, the Lebanese media inflates rumors and scares the Lebanese population into believing the next Nahr al Bared is upon us.
Sectarianism is the highest I have ever seen it. Many older residents of Beirut believe the discord between Lebanese sects is the greatest they have ever seen in their lifetimes. Of course, the Lebanese media continues to fan sectarian flames.
For a time after Doha, it seemed that Hezbollah and Amal would make sure that a new Lebanese government would come together quickly. However, they have since decided that the most politically expedient action for them is to allow MP Michel Aoun to block any government formation. This accomplishes two things:
1) Prime Minister-designate Fouad Siniora and the March 14 Coalition is undermined and once again their political power is in the balance.
2) President Michel Sleiman is being undermined and shown that he better not make any decisions the opposition dislikes. Right now, the opposition is testing to see if Sleiman will bend/break when pressured. Fortunately for Sleiman, he has powerful allies in March 14. Unfortunate for Sleiman, his main ally and the chief architect of his election, Michel el-Murr, is being targeted by Hezbollah, Amal, and Michel Aoun for his March 14 biases, and for his political break with Aoun's political bloc.
Once again, the opposition shifts the debate time and again away from compromise. When March 14 leaders concede a point to the opposition, they instantly demand something else. Take for instance this effort to try and tie the formation of the new government to negotiations over the electoral law, negotiations which will be trying and drawn out.
The Icing on the Cake
Hezbollah now contends that it has no interest in ever giving up its weapons, regardless of a return of all Lebanese prisoners in Israel and Israel conceding to the Syrian invented claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese.
Even worse, Hezbollah is preventing full, peaceful negotiations with Israel over myriad issues, even though both Hezbollah and Syria are negotiating with the Israelis right now.
Negotiations with Israel over the southern border are extremely important. Areas like the Shebaa Farms and the village of al-Ghajar are neither completely Lebanese or Syrian territory. As the late Syrian President Hafez al Assad noted, the border between Lebanon and the Syrian Golan was never defined. Al-Ghajar, literally, lies on both sides of the border. Technically, part of the village is Lebanese, but the residents are primarily Allawi and publicly announce that they consider themselves Syrian.
Syria is currently negotiating over the Golan, which is most likely why they refuse to sign any legal documents to support their claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese. This is also why Syria's Lebanese allies refuse to allow direct negotiations between Lebanon and Syria. Syria wants to be in charge of all negotiations, and a settlement between Lebanon and Israel removes more than one of Syria's negotiating cards.
Just as Syria refuses to demarcate the eastern border between Lebanon and Syria, if the Golan is returned to them, they will most likely use that territory to their advantage.
Syria wants to make sure that there will be no peace between Lebanon and Israel before Syria is able to extract everything they want out of the Israelis, and probably also extract everything they want out of the international community (which definitely includes diminishing Lebanese sovereignty in favor of Syrian hegemony).
Sunday, June 22, 2008
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6 comments:
...And once they have gotten all they wanted you can be sure something else will come up to prevent any peace talks unless more demands are met
When March 14 leaders concede a point to the opposition, they [the opposition] instantly demand something else.
Which means the opposition isn't afraid of losing support from its base. Which means that they don't depend on public opinion, but on force and money to keep a hold on its supporters. Perhaps that is how M14 should respond next, not on an accelerating and infinite package of concessions.
Haven't you guys got it right yet? Truth is that Hezbollah has no interest in advancing Lebanese politics but is just manipulating the poor Lebanese politicians for its own iranian agenda, namely the domination of Lebanon by replacing the Sunni political power with a Shia political power and instituting a new Christian constituency that will serve the new Shia power. Everything else is just toy story.
The only way out of this plot is the annihilation of Hezbollah by hitting it at its source, Iran.
don't you think that Condoleezza Rice is causing a problem by coming out for Israel to give up Har Dov ["Sheba`a Farms"]?? When she pressures Israel in that direction, she's undermining the border supposedly drawn up by UN experts based on old documents between Lebanon and Israel, as well as the UN sec'y general's declaration that Israel had fully withdrawn. In general, you've got to face the threat of US and French diplomacy that now seems back on the Syrian side against Israel and against Lebanon.
The Sheba Farms issue is REALLY simple guys.
Allowing for the fact that private land ownership, as distinct from national sovereignty is clearly Lebanese.
Allowing for the fact that residents of the disputed area received and paid to and from both countries at different times.
Nearly all, if not all of the maps display it as Syrian land. EVEN YOUR OWN MILITARY, YES I SAID LEBANESE MILITARY MAPS show the land as in Syria.
Any confusion regarding national sovereignty stems from maps prior to sovereign independence.
The area, having been an official recognized sovereign part of Syria until after the year 2000, cannot be said to be part of Lebanon for merely the reasons above as they are irrelevant and superseded by national sovereignty.
I can't believe you are swallowing this nonsense about it. I would laugh if it weren't for the bloodshed.
Vis-a-vis Israel, a country has the right to occupy a land that has been under the recognized sovereignty of another country, for defensive purposes pending a peace agreement. Annexation and settlement were illegal.
Adam,
You're right in some sense, but wrong in another. As I note in the post, and as you note in your comment, the maps indicate that the territory is Syrian.
However, the Syrians have always refused to properly demarcate the borders, and the de facto existence of Lebanese on the land does actually mean something in international law. As I note in the post, this is particularly troublesome because of the village of al-Ghajar in which half the village lies in Lebanon, while the other half lies in Golan. Half of these villagers, although technically Lebanese citizens, consider themselves Syrian.
Hezbollah's claim on Shebaa is fabricated, and is a Syrian technique to gain leverage against Israel. As I note in the post, the Syrians have no interest in properly defining their border with Lebanon, so they can exploit these exact problems.
According to surveyor reports, Israel is correct. According to claims of alleged former residents, Hezbollah/ Syrian are brilliantly exploiting a legal loophole and can legally and justifiably claim the land.
Should there be a war over this? Absolutely not, but as Hezbollah recently claimed, their weapons aren't about Shebaa or the prisoners. This undermines their rhetoric of the last 20 years, but they don't really care.
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