Deals? Lebanon, America, and the Middle East

Lebanese have been talking about a deal between America, Iran, and Syria for years. From 2005-2007, this deal seemed unlikely.

2008, however, is the year in which quite a few Lebanese analysts believe some deal has "actually" occurred.

One professor at the American University of Beirut argues, "Look at the violence in Iraq. It has decreased tremendously. This could not happen without Syria and Iran taking action.

"Look at Israel's negotiations with Syria under Turkish eyes. America definitely knows about this, not just on the intel level, but on the diplomatic level. Something is happening."

Is there a deal? I have no idea. For a long time, I did not think it would even be possible. Now, however, there are military movements. What does it mean? Still, no idea, and yet what local politically connected analysts are saying is that the Tribunal matters less and less.

For quite a long time, many Sunni in Beirut were interested in toppling the Syrian regime. That language is gone. They seem to believe the regime in Damascus is here to stay, not because of an American deal, but because of a confluence of interests, much of which emanates from the Arabian Gulf.

Is it possible that the US is urging the Gulf States to take an easier line on Syria? Yes. Is it possible that the Turks and Israelis are involved in influencing the American position? Yes. Is this true? I have no idea.

My read:

1. After the Hezbollah campaign in Beirut in May 2008, it seems that the Europeans are willing to placate the Iranians and Hezbollah. The EU was never aggressive in the first place, and now seem far more willing to normalize relations.

2. It is regularly mentioned that the Israeli government is weak, and Prime Minister Olmert is looking for minor gains. He has Ehud Barak's example to follow. Olmert might be perceived as a failure now, but if he can craft some sort of deal, his political life could last long after this term as Prime Minister.

3. The Saudi government realizes that its efforts at international diplomacy have only brought disgrace to the King in situations where he has put his credibility on the line, ie the Mecca Agreement and support for Hariri and the Siniora government. Iran/Syria have checked him at each advance.

4. President Bush's term is coming to an end, and it is more important to justify and guarantee a free and stable Iraq than it is to crush other American enemies.

5. From what I hear from Europeans, there is an international belief that the Middle East conflict can be contained at the moment, given the price of oil. The US, Europe, India, and China have an interest in preventing a Mideast cataclysm, and Iran and Russia perhaps believe that their currently profitable interests would be hurt if there is any more instability.

I have no idea, but what I hear indicates that the US, and especially Europe, are taking a much less aggressive stance when it comes to Mideast politics. And "deal" rumors are spoken about in Beirut as if it verified fact...