M14 Did Not Assassinate Aridi

Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance spokespeople suggest that forces opposed to them assassinated Druze March 8 member Saleh Aridi.

They argue that Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is moving away from his anti-Hezbollah allies, and is thus being sent a message not to ally with Hezbollah. It is suggested - and sometimes openly claimed - that the Saudi-backed March 14 coalition is responsible for assassinating Aridi.

Members of Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) have argued that Israel assassinated Aridi; thus, blaming the Arab world's perpetual rhetorical enemy instead of provoking a confrontation with either the March 8 or 14 coalition.

It is unlikely that M14 assassinated Aridi because:

1. M14 members know Jumblatt. This is the leader whose political decisions did not shift when a key PSP member, parliamentarian, policy maker, and negotiator, Marwan Hamade, was nearly assassinated in 2004. Jumblatt did not reverse his political decision. He merely stopped voicing it as loudly, while working ever harder with Rafiq Hariri to win the 2005 parliamentary elections and oust the Syrians.

2. Assassinations and threats to his life did not stop Jumblatt from advocating his positions over the last three years. Assassinations of March 14 coalition members only amplified and intensified Jumblatt's words.

3. Jumblatt refused to bow to Hezbollah's demands, even when his house in Clemenceau was under attack during the May events. Why would he be afraid of an assassination targeting someone who, until May, was a hated political opponent?

4. M14 generally uses money to buy allies (for example, quieting the Jund al-Sham conflicts with Saida residents, and also the "freezing" of the Salafist memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah). Aridi would not be the first person on M14's assassination list if it decided to take up that heinous policy.

5. The kind of bomb used to assassinate Aridi is similar to the kind used to assassinate Georges Hawi, and used in the failed assassination attempt against May Chidiac.


This fifth point is of particular significance. In 2005, press reports claimed that Georges Hawi was assassinated because he was acting as an emissary between Jumblatt and the Assad regime. This would suggest that Hawi's assassination was a clear message to Jumblatt that the Syrians have no interest in reconciliation with him.

LDP leader Talal Arslan was recently in Syria meeting with Assad at the Syrian presidential palace. Arslan and Jumblatt have reconciled their differences and are isolating some of Syria's closest Druze allies, like Wiam Wahhab, in preparation for the 2009 elections.

Recall that the Hamade assassination attempt occurred after the 2004 presidential elections, but before the 2005 parliamentary elections. The Aridi assassination occurred after the 2008 presidential elections, and before the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Something else to consider is the upcoming national dialogue, during which Lebanese parties will discuss critical issues about defense policy, national unity, and the 2009 electoral law. During the 2006 national dialogue, Jumblatt was the most anti-Hezbollah leader. His position has moderated since then, but Jumblatt is still no ally of Hezbollah or the Syrian regime. Arslan is.

Given that Jumblatt is significantly more powerful than Arslan - the junior member of this alliance, Syria is losing an ally while another close ally (Wahhab) is entirely isolated. The regime gains nothing from this alliance, but can preserve some influence in the Druze community if it prevents Arslan from moving closer to Jumblatt.

Arslan knows that he will lose support and credibility in his community if he does not work in coordination with Jumblatt, but will also lose his independence from Jumblatt if Syria removes its support. The Aridi assassination was most likely a message to Arslan that support might not be the only things the Syrians take away from him.

Arslan is allied with Syria's worst enemy. Secondly, he is the first influential pro-Syrian figure to attempt an independent political move.

These are all indications suggesting that the individuals who began assassinating anti-Syrian Lebanese leaders beginning in 2004 could possibly also be responsible for Aridi's assassination.

Nothing will completely exonerate the March 14 coalition in the opposition press. Try proving a negative. However, nothing suggests that M14 had anything to do with it.