The Russia/Georgia Conflict: The Syrian/Israeli Connection

The Russian invasion of Georgia caught much of the Middle East by surprise, but political actors here were quick to try and capitalize off of it.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech comparing the West's support for Georgia to the West's support for Israel. Just as the West could not prevent the righteous Russians from invading sovereign Georgia, he argued, the West would eventually fall to the might of Hezbollah and other forces opposed to Israel.

Given Hezbollah's May putsch in Beirut against the internationally supported Siniora government, some Lebanese saw Nasrallah's remarks as justifying the forceful takeover of a democratically elected, Western supported government. The Beirut press filled with reports about Hezbollah acquiring sophisticated new weaponry - advanced anti-aircraft systems and missiles - from the Russians.

Syrian President Bashar Assad made a grand play, going to Moscow to ask the Russians for a major weapons deals. Assad offered the Russians Syrian soil on which to locate missile batteries.

The Lebanese and Israeli press, as usual, briefly went berserk. However, the news that the Russians were sending an aircraft carrier to Latakia did not ruffle many feathers because, allegedly, the aircraft carrier in question is old, should have been decommissioned, and might not be fit for combat.

Israel, however, used the Georgia invasion to tacitly and the effectively maneuver its way into a better regional bargaining position than their opponents.


The details:

Hezbollah was eager to score a rhetorical victory. They – allegedly in coordination with the Syrians - planted many of the news items about Russian military acquisitions scare their local opponents, knowing that the March 14 press would embellish the story even further.

The Syrian President saw an opportunity, but had nothing to give the Russians in return. The Syrians like to present themselves as eager allies of the Russians, and continuously mention the important Syrian relationship with the Soviet Union.

However, Assad never made the case as to why the Russians would want to plant missiles in Syria, or why the Russians would want to sell weapons to the Syrians. He assumed, like many others in the Middle East, that the Russians – historic supporters of Arab Nationalism and the Palestinian cause – would be eager to take an opportunity to support the most anti-American regime in the Arab world.

Yet, what interests do the Russians have in upsetting Turkey (a NATO member), the European Union, Arab regimes in the Middle East, the United States and its forces in Iraq, and the Israelis? Russian missiles in Syria would provide greater credibility to Assad, but how would the Russians benefit from that, given the immense amount of opposition they would face.

The Russians quickly dismissed Assad’s advances, and agreed to sell him minor weapons systems and sent the carrier as a show of support.

The Israelis were always one step ahead of the Syrians.

Before Assad crafted his plan, the Israelis had already negotiated a deal with the Russians.

Israel was an ardent supporter of Georgia’s nascent democracy, and was one of its main suppliers of advanced weaponry. Media outlets regularly noted that Georgia’s defense minister is Jewish. Israeli officials vocally supported Georgian President Saakashvili… until a few weeks ago.

According to a number of reports, the Israelis made a deal with Russia that they would stop providing weaponry and rhetorical support to the Georgians. In return, the Russians agreed not to change the security status quo in the Middle East. They refused to sell any weapons systems to the Syrians or Syria’s regional allies that would change regional dynamics.

Russia strengthened its sphere of influence, sending a message to the United States and Europe. The Israelis sent a message to Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah that the Russians have no interest in changing the regional balance. Then, Condoleeza Rice went to Libya…