The first assassination after the May conflict and the Doha agreement is yet another attack on a Druze target. A car bomb in the village of Baisour killed Lebanese Democratic Party politburo member Saleh Aride.
This was no accident. Car bombs are not meant to be subtle, especially when used in the quiet, mountainous Druze heartland.
Hezbollah made the Druze community as a whole their target during their May campaign. Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt reinforced his alliance with rival Druze leader Talal Arslan during and after the Hezbollah attacks on their community. Arslan is a friend and supporter of the Assad regime and the March 8 coalition. However, he is the junior partner in his alliance with Jumblatt
The assassination of one of Arslan's core supporters might be a message to Arslan to move away from Jumblatt and not provide him with pro-Syrian cover as Jumblatt tries to move away from the March 14 coalition. From 2004-8, Jumblatt was the most vociferous critic of the Syrian regime. The Damascus regime detests him more than any other Lebanese leader.
This assassination might be a statement from the Syrians to Jumblatt and Arslan that an entente between Jumblatt and Damascus is impossible. It might be a message to Arslan to realign himself. It might be a message to pro-Syrian Shia Amal leader Nabih Berri not to align himself too closely with Jumblatt, because Jumblatt is still persona non grata in Damascus. It has recently been reported that Jumblatt and Berri are trying to create a third way that opposes both the March 14 coalition and Hezbollah.
Some Lebanese claim that March 14 forces are responsible for the assassination to send a message to Jumblatt not to stray too far. However, this seems unlikely.
It is possible that Aride was involved in other activities that might have made him a target. We will most likely find out more in the coming hours and days.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
many hezbollah fighters died in baysour in may.
There's a possibility that the assassination is just payback.. Aridi might have been one of those who defended baysour.
Aridi is supposed to have been one of the people distributing weapons to the Druze combatants during the fighting, but that's from a very M14 source without first hand knowledge, and I don't know where he got his information.
My first thought was that it was Wahhab's people - he's a thug, and he's certainly been even further marginalized by the unity of the rest of the Druze around Jumblatt/Arslan.
I'm not as convinced this wasn't someone on the March 14 side. Jumblatt has been pissing people off royally - read the Al-Akhbar interview, for one. He's moved a lot further towards March 8 than Arslan has moved towards him. Syrians aren't the only people who can plant a bomb in a car.
Post a Comment