Spring Beirut Marathon

The derek zoomed through the streets booming, "Remove your vehicles. Remove your vehicles." The marathon is tomorrow.

How many people will participate? Just Lebanese, most likely - this is not an official international competition.

Will Beiruti get anything in return for the inconvenience of moving theirs cars? Maybe a few extra tourist dollars for the neighborhood dekane...

Regardless, pictures of President Sleiman are everywhere. The Qawmy and Future members in my neighborhood might want to kill each other, but "we are all united for Sleiman," and the symbolism matters.

Fairouz is playing from most shops. However, politics is expressed in the particular song being played. We won't go into the specifics, "Oh, flower from the south, oh, crying bird." For all of you abroad we are playing,"Kifak inta?"

A New Siniora Government

President Michel Sleiman re-appointed Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

Working too much today, but here's a quick, off-the-cuff reaction about why this is good:

1) it keeps in power a man reknowned for his ability to reconcile fighting factions;

2) it goes a good ways to guarantee that the opposition won't whittle away at the reforms of the previous government;

3) it unites 14 March leaders, and gives the 14 March Coalition bona fides as a unified movement, not just an organization bought and paid for by the Hariri's and Saudi Arabia. Calls for Muhammad Safadi to be elected as premier are being made by the opposition, but are not legitimate. I'm sure that there are plenty of other people who want to be named prime minister, but after the recent conflicts and given that the Future Movement is the majority group in parliament, an experienced prime minister with national support is the best option. The choice is for 14 March to make about the prime minister. It is an internal decision (for more on this, see below);

4) Lebanon needs an experienced prime minister will guarantee to Lebanon's foreign allies, like the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia, that Hezbollah did not mount a coup, despite the changes that occurred.

4) The leader of the government should not be the leader of the Sunni community, for then any removal of him would appear as a slight to the Sunnis as a whole, not removal based on incompetence or for the sake of compromise. The whole of Lebanon is burdened under the weight of Nabih al Berri because the majority of Shia legislators claim that any slight against him is a slight against all Shia, which is ridiculous, but beneficial to both Berri and Hezbollah;

5) If Amal and Hezbollah complain about Siniora being prime minister, then Berri's seat is on the line. The president was a consensus choice, but the prime minister's office is not on the table.
The Sunni and Shia have united around specific factions, and they will not retreat. This is especially true given the way Speaker Berri has failed to do his job and proven to be entirely aligned with Syria and the opposition. The prime minister might not be the leader of the Sunnis, but given the way the Shia have set the table, the PM should at least be appointed by the Sunnis.

6) For the Future Movement:
a. any of Siniora's failings will be blamed on him, not Saad, who is inexperienced and might fail when faced with Lebanon's experienced political class;
b. Siniora can compromise on issues that the Saudis might not want Saad Hariri to compromise on;
c. appointing Siniora shows strength in the face of weakness (remember what happened to Future TV and Beirut).

This is a Sunni-Shia issue. Michel Aoun, Sleiman Franjieh, and Assad Hardane are taking the lead in attacking Siniora. Hezballah/Amal feel the same way as the rest of the opposition, but have to keep their mouths shut or risk putting Berri's job on the line (and there are many qualified Shia within the opposition waiting for this to happen).

Christian Lebanon lost its influence long ago, and a weak president like Sleiman guarantees that the Sunni and Shia will dictate to the president. The choice of Sleiman makes it impossible for the president to have enough power of office or character to moderate between the two sides. He will have to find some independent power base equal to the immense amount of domestic power of Future/Hezbollah/Amal, or take one side.

The Syrians refused a powerful president in Lebanon, because they know that this would open a space for a Christian president to fill the broker position Syria occupied during its reign.

Given that the 1960 electoral law is empowering Franjieh and other Christian zuama, the Christians will lose relevance almost completely and be junior partners in any future parliament or government. Some Christians will side with 14 March and others with 8 March. This will most likely guarantee that the Christians keep the number of seats in parliament allocated to them, and the apportionment in government hiring. Christians represent more than a third of the population, based on multiple estimates, but occupy 50% of parliamentary seats. The Sunni and Shia won't risk uniting all Christians together by bringing up these questions, and the Lebanese agenda will continue to be dictated by the Sunni Mustaqbal and the Shia HA/Amal for the time being.

Beirut Celebrations, Nasrallah Speech

Lebanese citizens packed Beirut's downtown. It's the most packed I've ever seen it; even more than during the 2005 and 2006 protests, although the area was smaller this time, and the people were more densely packed.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nassrallah spoke earlier in the evening. His speech was truculent and non-conciliatory. It was liberation of the south day, thus a day for tough speeches, but at this crucial moment in Lebanese history, Lebanese people need guidance from their leaders. Men and women of influence need to encourage their followers not to take violent action.

Unfortunately, no Lebanese leader has risen to call for true national reconciliation. The celebrations in the downtown were marred by clashes. Youths fought each other over silly political identities. As these hooligans chanted their silly Hariri, Amal, Hezbollah slogans, no members of their political coalitions stepped in to say, "Bala taefiyyeh, bala siyasiyeh. This is a time for unity and celebration." These youths bullied the crowd, and no one stopped them. When they fought, the Army had to step in.

Sadly, stray bullets after Nasrallah's speech severely injured many Lebanese who currently lie in critical condition in hospital. Clashes broke out between Sunni and Shia in Corniche al Mazraa.

This summer will be profitable, but the peace is superficial.

Regardless, the economic effects of the reconciliation is already being felt. Workers are asking for increased salaries. The downtown is packed with restaurants, which are hiring workers to clean the establishments, and hiring many workers and waiters. Four friends who are waiters tell me that they can make $2,000 a month as waiters in downtown Beirut. They can make $450 an hour at certain pubs and nightclubs on Friday and Saturday nights. They could make even more at places like Sky Bar and Crystal, especially if the Gulf tourists return to Beirut.

Also, downtown appears as a Lebanese (not a Gulf tourist) place. I've never seen so many working class and middle class Lebanese in Beirut's downtown before. In the past, the criticism of the downtown was that the vast majority of Lebanese could not even afford a coffee in the over-priced area. That is no longer true. Aramoun Mini Market between the clock tower and the Greek Catholic Church (currently being rehabilitated) sells reasonably priced merchandise to those who don't want to pay $5 for a Diet Pepsi in one of the downtown's "see and be seen" cafes. It was the most crowded and popular place.

Sleiman's Election

General Michel Sleiman was just elected president.

Parliamentary Speaker Nabih al Berri stole the limelight, and is behaving as if he is running the show. He is accompanying President Michel Sleiman everywhere, as if he is a child whom Berri must escort around. It's as if he is a North Korean minder. Given that Berri is the Syrian regime's most powerful Lebanese ally, images of assassinated President Rene Muawad keep coming to mind when I think of President Sleiman trying to veer away from Berri.

Berri refused to elect Sleiman in accordance with the Lebanese Constitution, despite protests from 3 Christian legislators, and also Shia legislator Hussein Husseini. Berri singlehandedly makes decisions on the Constitution, it seems. He decided that the Siniora government was unconstitutional, and now he has decided that a senior Lebanese civil servant can be directly elected president, despite the Constitution noting that such a person must be out of office for at least two years prior to being elected president. Even the Syrians followed the Lebanese Constitution when electing and extending the term of former President Emile Lahoud.

Despite the Lebanese Army asking citizens not to fire their weapons in the air in celebration of Sleiman's election, automatic weapons fire can be heard all over Beirut. A journalist friend in the downtown had to hide under a bridge to avoid getting hit by bullets returning to the ground. A bullet landed approximately 2 meters away from him.

The streets of Ras Beirut are empty. However, there is plenty of noise. Televisions tuned to the parliamentary session blare from apartment windows. When Sleiman was elected, clapping could be heard all over.

The Emir of Qatar seems to have assumed the role of protector of Lebanon. The Syrians did a horrible job in that position. In 2005, Lebanese politicians petitioned the United States and Iran to take over Syria's overlordship. Both countries realized that taking such responsibility was not to their benefit. Qatar stepped in, not just to broker between Lebanese politicians, but to bargain with their regional political sponsors: Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab League. It's seems that Qatar's strategy and balancing act - cooperating with Israel and Hezbollah, the United States and Iran - is paying off. They now have a greater regional prominence, but it is yet to be seen if Qatar will gain anything but grief in return.

Opposition Continues Its Shenanigans

Amal leader and parliamentary speaker Nabih al Berri continues to claim that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government is unconstitutional. To this end, he refuses to allow Siniora into the parliament (Siniora is not an elected member of parliament) to participate in General Michel Sleiman's election.

This entirely undermines the Doha Agreement, which happened partially because the March 14 Coalition believed the opposition would not immediately attack the initiatives of the previous government during this period of national-unity.

Parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri immediately took action. If Siniora is not allowed, then Berri will not have a quorum.


Side note: None of the parties are happy that Michel Sleiman will be elected president. Allegedly, only Michel Murr and the good people of Amchit are content with this decision.

Also, check this YouTube clip for a visual metaphor of the battle between the March 8 and 14 Coalitions.

Political Realignments and New Government Initiatives on the Horizon

Michael Young offers excellent analysis on the possible realignments of political alliances that could take place in the coming days and months.

Undoubtedly, Sleiman's election will boost the strength of Metn parliamentarian and local zaim Michel el-Murr, and reduce the popularity of Christian parliamentarian Michel Aoun. Sleiman and Aoun have similar bases of support, which will begin to realign themselves.

A few other possible developments:

1) a realignment of Christian politics in north Lebanon. The new electoral law will dramatically empower local zaim Sleiman Franjieh, excite the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, and might allow the return to politics of Orthodox Christian billionaire Issam Fares. March 14 northern Christian figures who will likely try to continue serving in politics - like Boutros Harb, Nayla Mouawad, Elias Attallah, and Farid Mkari, and probably unlike Samir Franjieh - will have to readjust, realign, and perhaps even run in different electoral districts (ie, one March 14 Maronite will align him or herself with the Tripoli Sunni politicians to take the Maronite seat there, which is currently held by Elias Attallah).

2) a realignment of north Lebanon Sunni politics.

a. Tripoli is home to a number of billionaires. Former interim prime minister Najib Miqati mounted a publicity campaign a few months ago, which might be an early effort to return to politics. His portrait can be seen all over the city, often in the company of images of Rafiq al Hariri and the mayor of Tripoli, and sometimes alongside images of executed former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
The Future Movement has strong support in Tripoli, but the coalition of independent Sunni leaders like Miqati and billionaire Muhammad Safadi could force Future to make bigger compromises than in 2005.

b. the Tripoli Sunni billionaires club might push for a larger role in the Lebanese economy. Under Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri, there was talk of making Tripoli into a free-zone similar to that in Dubai's Jebel Ali and what is intended for Aqaba, Jordan. There has been discussion recently of re-opening the Qleiaat Airport, despite a few constraints.

c. The Sunni region of Akkar, close to Tripoli, is Lebanon's poorest, and has the highest birthrates. Many residents of Akkar serve in the Lebanese Army, and they might receive greater attention from President Sleiman and Future leader and possibly soon-to-be prime minister Saad Hariri. Economic aid and government support for Akkar is desperately needed. Of parallel concern is that Akkar and Tripoli are hotbeds of Islamic extremism, including some groups with ideologies similar to Fatah al Islam.

d. The north Lebanon region could become extremely productive very soon. The province of Koura is agriculturally fertile. Tourism to Bcherre, Douma, Batroun, and Tripoli will aid the local economies. Chekka is a major site of industry and concrete production. Minor government efforts for greater transportation and integration between the countryside and Tripoli could spur even greater private investment from the wealthy Lebanese community abroad.


3) if Sleiman is smart, he will start building a support network in Jbeil. Outside of Roger Edde's investments in the city of Jbeil, the rest of the region receives scant attention from the Lebanese government. The Lebanese Ministry of Tourism fails to promote the myriad tourist attractions in the region, like:

a. excellent spelunking, camping, and hiking in Afqa;
b. skiing in Laqlouq;
c. the riverside restaurants in Nahr Ibrahim;
d. development opportunities for the beaches and seaside communities between Byblos and Batroun;
e. the multitude of religious and pilgrimage sites including the Mar Charbel monasteries, and the many Shia religious schools.

4) What will happen in the Bekaa? Unfortunately, I see little hope on the horizon for my region. The area will likely continue stagnating.

a. Hezbollah's security zones will prevent any major real estate development in the region.
b. The Salafists in the central will continue to worry the Christians and Shia.
c. The Armenians in Anjar continue to leave at a steady pace.
d. The Beirut-Damascus highway is still a 2 lane road in many places, and probably won't be a major priority for a number of years.
e. Wine companies continue to pop up and the old standards are increasing production, but unless the alcohol tax and the value-added taxes are reduced on wine exports, the industry will continue to rely on the relatively low level of domestic consumption. Remember that a good portion of the Lebanese population does not consume alcohol, and when they do, it is Almaza, 961 beer, araq, whiskey, and imported wine and spirits. Given the state of the Lebanese economy and the increasing cost of food, wine is not the first concern of most Lebanese shoppers.
One sign of hope: 961 Beer is working with German aid organizations to teach Lebanese farmers in Bekaa to grow hops. Allegedly, this will solve multiple problems simultaneously:
i. provide hops to the nascent Lebanese beer industry;
ii. provide Lebanese farmers with steady revenue from an agricultural product that is currently rising in price and already extremely expensive;
iii. reduce the incentive to grow hashish and other illegal substances. Allegedly, hops is worth more than hashish. Given the legality of the product, the farmers will receive greater local payment, not have to pay protection money to thugs and corrupt officials, reduce alliance on local tough guys, like Hezbollah, and have an incentive to make long-term plans for their farms given that they will no longer have to worry about their crops being burned or their property being seized.

Hezbollah's New Talking Points

According to a Hezbollah source, after General Michel Sleiman is elected president:

1) the tribunal to try the assassins of former prime minister Rafiq al Hariri will have the full support of Hezbollah and the 8 March parties, and will proceed;

2) the Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails will be released;

3) the Syrians will sign the documents the government of Fouad Siniora sent them that will end any dispute over the ownership of the Shebaa Farms;

4) Hezbollah will reveal their deal with the Israelis over a prisoner exchange;

5) and after these three steps are taken, Hezbollah will integrate its weapons into the Lebanese Army. There will be an armistice with Israel. Hezbollah will no longer fight from south Lebanon, but move its operations, training, and strategies to Gaza and the West Bank.

According to him, the Syrians refused to sign any agreement with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his government, but they will cooperate with Sleiman and the national-unity government.

Hezbollah and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah tell extremely convincing stories. Their narrative is easy to follow, rational, and easy to comprehend. They hit on many themes that are true, like the corruption of some March 14 leaders, and make it appear as if everything would be fine if Hezbollah was in charge. Their members are true believers, and their passion and conviction is evident.

I wish what this man tells me is true. His talking points will please any Lebanese audience. Unfortunately, what is more likely to happen is that Hezbollah will pound these points into everyone's heads, and then they will use a minor excuse - like appointing a certain judge to the tribunal judiciary, or the Future Movement not allowing Michel Aoun to appoint Shia ministers (which is a bad thing, but allegedly happened in 2005) - to cancel everything out.

Who won?

The 14 March Coalition and the Arab League got a president elected before 2009, the year the Iranians predicted someone would ascend to that office.

The opposition got much more than their request of 1/3 veto wielding power in the Lebanese cabinet of ministers.

Hariri will protect his...ahem, our tribunal. Hezbollah's telephone lines were never really threatened in the first place, which means that their "divine" weapons will remain theirs, not ours.

The most important 14 March goals should be:

1) Complete government transparency;
2) Continue meeting the demands of the Paris-III donor countries.

These two demands will help keep 14 March Coalition members true to their democratic rhetoric and minimize graft within the ranks, while it will be an open threat to opposition ministers that this is not the Syrian era.

The opposition should come up with some goals of their own.

I'd love to see a war of ministries in which one ministry monitors another to make sure that it is transparent.

I would also love to see 8 March leaders force out a corrupt 14 March minister, and likewise.

The goal right now for Lebanese citizens is to make sure that the Lebanese government is working for the people, and prove that the government is not just an agreement between rich, gun-wielding fat cats who turn a blind eye on each others corrupt activities.

All Over?

The Doha negotiations were never meant to solve everything. They were meant to stall the violence until after the summer tourist season is over.

Lebanon now has a concensus president to provide legitimacy to Lebanese "democracy." Now, all Lebanese leaders can appeal to their foreign sponsors for more money. The businesses owned by these same leaders will profit from the Lebanese community abroad and brave foreign tourists who descend on Beirut this summer to party before the fighting starts again.

At least civilian lives will be spared...



My prediction: there won't be major clashes until the late fall. In late September or October, grumbling will begin. Then, some group will threaten to take to the streets. Then, a protest will occur, but it won't get violent. However, the government will be deadlocked, and everyone will be unhappy.

In November, Syrian and Iranian leaders will watch the American elections closely, and then listen to statements from the victor. They will begin planning, but won't take action until Bush is safely out of office and does not have the authority to go to war.

January 2009, tensions will increase, most of it having to do with the electoral law and the timing of the elections.

Then again, this is Lebanon. No one expected Nahr al Bared. Something else might pop up this summer.

The Doha Negotiations

The Lebanese press should have been banned from Qatar. Lebanese politicians should have been banned from calling the Lebanese press from their Qatar hotel rooms.

Negotiations are occuring in Qatar, and in negotiations the participating parties use strategies and tactics to win concessions. Inflaming Lebanese civilians and using the biased and propaganda spinning Lebanese media to effect the outsome of negotiations is only harmful to Lebanon, and a useless ploy against the other negotiating parties who all have media outlets of their own.

Politics is Lebanon's national drama, and all I've heard over the last few days are people commenting on the different tactics in Doha, and deciding to take some action in Beirut based on what they hear on the radio. It is ridiculous.

Minute by minute accounts don't matter. Keep it secret, and let some aide to Elie Skaff make a million dollars publishing a behind-the-scenes account of the events in a book published this August.

The blame game shouldn't happen in the middle of negotiations. Of course, one side will be mad at one point, and the other side will counter and make an entirely different group angry. That's what happens during negotiations. In the rest of the world, there is no Syria to step in and decide when it's time to stop debating. It is not acceptable to leave the office of the president vacant.

The point of negotiations is to figure out a way to live and work together. If that is not possible, then start figuring out a way for us not to have to live together, but do not come back without a decision that leaves us civilians in sectarian jeopardy. Do not fail to agree on something and then sacrifice our lives for your tribunals, "Divine" weapons, ministries of theft, presidencies you think belong only to you, and the foreign overlords who give you money and weapons.

Covering Lebanon

It is difficult to cover Lebanon. Most Lebanese don't understand their country. Political parties mount disinformation campaigns. Politicians claim one thing publicly, but do another. Other politicians make a proposal to provoke a response out of an opponent so that the politician can do something different than what is proposed today. Many political analysts and university professors are aligned with political movements and publish extremely biased polling data and articles in which they don't even get the facts right.

The LA Times tries to explore myriad facets of the Middle East. I regularly read their blog Babylon & Beyond. The blog covers myriad topics that rarely receive attention. Recently, I took the LAT to task for insinuating that a Sunni militia fought against Hezbollah during the recent clashes. They investigated the story further.

According to the general definition of "militia," one can argue that there was a Sunni militia. A group of armed men tried to protect their area. However, there are a few problems with publishing an article that says this:

1) the word "militia" in Lebanon is highly politicized. This should come as no surprise given the history of the Lebanese civil war.

Amal gunmen marauded through the streets of Beirut, but were in high dudgeon over al-Arabiya referring to these gunmen taking over neighborhoods in a planned manner within a supervised hierarchy as a militia. If Amal, which was actively controlling and possessing Beirut neighborhood, looting private property, and preventing the free movement of citizens, took issues with the word "militia," then might the Future Movement, which did not participate in fighting in the same kind of coordinated way as Hezbollah, Amal, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party?

Hezbollah's al-Manar TV routinely referred to their armed allies in the streets as "parties," whereas they referred to other political parties as "militias." The Future Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party, and the Lebanese Forces (which had nothing to do with anything that occured in the streets of Beirut last week) were described as militias, not parties, even though they did not invade anyone.

2) the implications of the word "militia." Hezbollah is, without a doubt, a well-trained militia. It is better equipped and more capable than the Lebanese Army, however, it is a militia because the democratically elected Lebanese government does not control it and has no power over it. In fact, Hezbollah has a large degree of control over the Lebanese government.

If Hezbollah can portray other parties in Lebanon as militias, then it has a better chance of justifying its own existence. If Hezbollah and its allies are the only armed factions, then it becomes much more difficult to justify possessing those weapons, especially when the weapons are being used to undermine the authority of the Lebanese government, Army, police, and other institutions. Many Hezbollah supporting friends cited the LAT piece to justify their claims about Saad Hariri having a militia.

3) coordination and training. Lebanon has a brisk economy around security companies. These are not Israeli, South African, British SAS, Blackwater style security companies that pay their employees hundreds of thousands of dollars to do whatever is necessary to protect billionaires and oil rigs. These are companies that provide minimum wage security guards to pat down men's waistbands and inspect women's purses. They also use little television antennas on sticks to screen cars for explosive chemicals (which I've been told by a UN security official are not effective).

SecurePlus is a Sunni owned security firm. It does not provide paramilitary training. The security guards they train do not even carry guns.

It is unfair to portray SecurePlus as being on the same level as Hezbollah, which has myriad training camps, launches wars and operations, and actively cooperates with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Whether the LAT wanted to or not, it entered into a dangerous Lebanese debate and aided the arguments of one side against another without helping to illuminate the truth.

Were there Sunni gunmen on the streets of Beirut? Yes.

Did they invade other neighborhoods? No, they primarily tried to protect their areas.

Were they trained to fight wars? No, the 8 year old with a gun on a motorscooter killed by Hezbollah fighters was not trained. He aimed his weapon at an invading force because the Army and police refused to do so. His community and leaders recognized that the actions the boy took were wrong and said so publicly, unlike the leaders of the men who killed the child.

Can the Sunni gunmen launch a war against Israel, should they choose? No, they have kalashnikovs, but did not appear to have the sophisticated telecommunications devices Hezbollah used. They do not have their own phone network to use in fighting against other Lebanese and Israel.

Could Sunni gunmen run through the streets of Beirut misbehaving the way Amal and the SSNP did? Sure, but the Lebanese Army would stop them. They would probably need the cover that Hezbollah provided Amal and the SSNP to get away with similar lunacy.

The Psychological Effects of War

I have no concrete evidence of what I claim; only the anecdotes of friends and associates. Given that aid organizations and academics have yet to fully chronical the effects of the 2006 war, I think anecdotal evidence will have to do for now.

Clenched Jaws and Chipped Teeth
I have heard many occurences of jaw problems. Some residents of Beirut are clenching their teeth to the degree that it hurts to chew. I have heard many reports of jaw aches. A couple I know say each separately wake up at night because their spouse is grinding his/her teeth so loudly.

A dentist told me that he is making many nightguards and repairing chipped teeth. He claims that Lebanese are giving themselves long-term tooth and jaw damage from stress. A friend started wearing a mouthguard when he runs because he can't stop clenching his jaw. He already chipped away half a tooth.

Pills
A friend of mine in Hamra can't sleep. His mother and sister can't sleep, either. Abed is a leftist, environmentalist, and skeptic, so he refuses to medicate. The rest of his family take pills. They can't sleep without them.

Muhammad tells me that his aunt started taking pills on the first Thursday of the conflict. She began to take more as the gun battles got louder. Now, he claims, she is addicted.

An American professor at the American University of Beirut realized that she could not cope with the situation. She couldn't escape, and the worries and pressure from her family in the US was too much to bear on top of the horrible situation she was living in. She went to the pharmacy the first day it was open and bought a batch of what she claims is valium, although that is not what the bottle states. In Lebanon, one does not need a prescription to buy extremely powerful, mind altering drugs. She is now accustomed to taking them. She offers them to her friends. Some of them take the drugs without ever having consulted a doctor or pharmacist about the actual effects and side-effects of what they are throwing down their throats.

Nightmares
It is not even worth cataloguing the number of nightmares I've heard from others. Almost everyone I know tells me about a dream they've had recently. I've had many awkward and disturbing dreams, as well. I tend to have political dreams. Throughout the 2006 war, I often dreamt of myself as a member of the Lebanese cabinet trying to resolve the conflict. This time, I dream about being in a vibrant city, but there being a massive conflict (often involving a gargantuan flood of water) occuring in the distance.

Some of the dreams of my friends are too disturbing to recount. Many of them involve lots of blood, dead bodies, and death. A Dutch woman tells me that she has dreams about saving her young daughter from dark, shadowy, faceless enemies. Another man dreams that he is a member of a South African private security corporation of ninjas that descends on Beirut and secretly and quietly kills all armed factions and corrupt politicians.


Drugs and Alcohol
The consumption of alcohol has gone up steeply. Many of my friends are no longer having one or two drinks at pubs. They are going to the liquor store and buying entire cases of beer, or bottles of spirits. Often, the entire quantity is gone by the end of the night. Many people report to have had constant hangovers for the last two weeks. They arrive at work late, and feel horrible for half of the next day. Many say that it now takes quite a bit more alcohol to achieve the same effect.

Many normally staid and professional people are now talking openly about using cocaine, hashish, and ecstasy. These substances are illegal in Lebanon, but are quite easy to acquire. When I asked an acquaintance of an acquaintance if he was worried if he would get caught smoking hashish openly in the streets (he claimed to have smoked it while walking down the Corniche al Mazraa boulevard), he said, "If they try and arrest me for smoking a joint, I'll scream at them and say, 'Why the f*** didn't you arrest the people firing RPGs last week?'"

Those using cocaine, unsurprisingly, note a difficulty sleeping. Those using the other substances say they are trying to mentally escape.

As for me, my consumption of araq (aniseed flavored liquor similar to raki, ouzo, sambucca, and pastis) has increased slightly. I don't know if this is a result of the conflict or because a friend's father gave me a gallon jug of the substance. However, I've been self-moderating. :)

I normally deal with stress by working more. This probably isn't healthy in the long run, but I'll solve that problem when I take a vacation...if I take a vacation. No, I'm not married....

Weight Gains/Loss
Friends have visibly changed. Some people have gained significant amounts of weight. Others stopped eating, and look sickly thin and exhausted.

Conclusion
Many Lebanese, myself included, argue that this technically short conflict did far more psychological damage than the 34 day 2006 war. Civil wars are much harder psychologically than wars with "the other."

One comedian performing the other night argued, "How is that the country that produces the best quality hashish in the world decides it needs to fight all the time? Isn't hash supposed to chill you out? People from all over the world travel to Amsterdam to smoke Lebanese blonde and red. People travel to Beirut to fight. Shouldn't they travel here to smoke up and feel "ja love"? The Israelis love Lebanese hash. Come on, guys, we can beat the Israelis at this... Why do we have to fight all the time? Have you ever seen someone high on hash fight?"

Life is returning to normal, but the scars are still visible.

Update: For a stunning distraction from Lebanon, check out this link a friend sent me.

Arab League Delegation Creates Path to Resolution

The Arab League negotiated between pro-government and opposition forces to create a 6-point plan:

1) Things must return to what they were before May 5, 2008: the government must respond to the Army Command statement and hand the two decisions over to the army; All arms must be withdrawn from the streets and all roads, the Rafik Hariri International Airport and the Beirut Seaport reopened; and the Lebanese army must take charge of national security and civil peace.

2) There must be agreement on returning to dialogue on the national-unity government and electoral law. This agreement must be crowned by the end of the sit-in the eve Army Commander General Michel Sleiman is announced as a consensus candidate for presidency.

3) The (Lebanese) dialogue will begin as soon as the clause 1 is implemented, on Friday May 16, 2008 in Doha.

4) All parties must promise to refrain from returning to arms or violence to achieve political ends.

5) The dialogue is to reinforce the rule of the Lebanese government on all Lebanese lands … for the security of the state and its citizens.

6) Political leaders will end their use of political and sectarian incitement and accusations of treachery at once.

Unfortunately, it seems like March 14 leaders will end up making large concessions.

The call for dialogue immediately, beginning tomorrow, puts the opposition in an advantageous position. The pro-government factions need to meet, strategize, and come up with a solution to face the opposition's demands. The opposition does not negotiate genuinely, and constantly changes their demands. Their only interest is placing obstacles in the path of the pro-government factions.

Supposedly, the opposition will receive its veto-wielding 1/3 of the cabinet, and will be able to block any decision the government takes. The 14 March Coalition will agree to this because it believes that the government created in Doha, Qatar will only be temporary, before 14 March claims a massive victory in the next parliamentary elections Their goal is to placate the opposition, but not allow the opposition to take power and undue all of the 14 March initiatives that came into existence since the creation of the government in 2005.

Allegedly, Future Movement leader Saad Hariri only cares about the Justice Ministry. The 14 March factions no longer care about the ministries of Interior and Defense. The forces under the command of these ministries, which are currently headed by members of the 14 March Coalition, refused to protect Beirut and protect the government they are sworn to serve.

The Finance Minister Jihad Azour is one of the best ministers in the government. He is a technocrat, but as he is a current member of the government, he is perceived as a 14 March member. Many 14 March leaders commented to me something to the extent of, "Why should we care about balancing the budget and sticking to the prerogatives of the Paris III accords, if the opposition denies any of the efforts to stabilize the economy?"

Most likely, technocrats like Culture Minister Tarek Mitri will disappear, and politicians with extensive experience in graft and corruption will take their places.

Observations and Hypotheses About the Situation in Lebanon

1) It seems like Hezbollah and the opposition are backing down. Hezbollah achieved its goal, and is currently willing to negotiate. Will they bully the government using a threat of violence, again? Most definitely.

Given that Qatar leads the Arab League delegation, it seems the Qatari balancing act - often perceived as pro-Syrian and Iranian bias - might offer at least some sort of agreement. Rumor has it that Qatar is representing Iranian interests more than the Syrian interests. I heard one claim today from a Future analyst that Iran and Hezbollah are upset with the Syrian regime, and that the Iranians do not want a fight between Sunni and Shia in Lebanon, which has already had regional implications. Obviously, given I have only one somewhat knowledgeable source, I have no idea if this is true.


2) I hear rumors from friends of friends in the south that Hezbollah is taking up strategic positions in the area and taking territory they previously did not have on the border. Some of these places are in Christian towns. Could Hezbollah be negotiating with the government now because it knows it will attack Israel which will rain down devastation next week, paralyzing the government, and giving Hezbollah full control of foreign policy, the means of violence, and media airtime? Who knows?

Where is Unifil? They are working within the confines of United Nations bureaucracy, ie not fulfilling their mandate, but supplying plenty of vetrinary care to the livestock in the region and free karate lessons to the youth.


3) Hezbollah initially came out to "support" the unions protesting the minimum wage and the price of food. I have not noticed a price increase, yet, but given that the border, the airport, and the ports have been closed, I would assume that demand for foodstuffs is quickly outpacing supply, thus the prices will soon rise. An employee with the Lebanese Ministry of Finance mentioned last night that Lebanon imports many food sources, including most of its grain. Bread is a significant staple of the Lebanese diet, and is the first supply to run out whenever conflict arises, as it did in Beirut during this conflict on the first day residents could leave their houses, and as it did during the opening days of the 2006 war.


4) The failures of Lebanese and Palestinian democracies might begin to fuel pro-regime, Islamic treatises on behalf of dictatorship and against democratic reform. Conservative Muslims normally cite Quran and Hadith to say that tyranny is better than revolution, because in revolution there is chaos, and chaos is what must absolutely be avoided. The chaos and disgusting behaviors that occured in Beirut and Gaza could easily support regime claims about stability and preserving the Islamic way of life.

Given the success of Dubai, it seems like Arab regimes are moving toward Plato's philosopher king model, or Machiavelli's educated prince (Qatar's scheming Sheikh Hamad?) more than anything else.

This argument on behalf of dictatorship also plays into the patronizing realist worldview in which it is better to negotiate with a strongman regime who supports one's views than to support democracy in which there is no predictable outcome. This argument is obviously also based on the assumption that the negotiating party is in a position of greater power than the totalitarian regime.

The Truth About Hezbollah's Allegiances

There are divisions between Hezbollah, Amal, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Sources from each political group told me about their anger with the others.

Hezbollah often likes to blame all of their evils on others, normally Amal. They love to claim that Amal members are thieves and brigands who would steal from their own mothers. They become emotional explaining the divisions between Amal and Hezbollah, saying that there is still great enmity between the two groups. Yet, every time something major happens in Lebanon there is Hezbollah walking hand in hand with Amal.

Hezbollah loves to claim that SSNP members are thugs. They claim that Hezbollah is professional and merely took over the neighborhoods, but it was the SSNP thugs who went around stealing, harassing neighborhoods, and shooting up businesses they don't like. Hezbollah members claim that they have problems with the Syrian regime and claim that there is no way they will allow the Syrians back in to rule Lebanon, because, "We hate them. We know, more than anyone else, how bad they were to Lebanon and Lebanese. They treated us like animals. There is no way that Hezbollah, which is more powerful than it ever was underneath the Syrians who negotiate with Israel, will ever go back to living under them. Syria is an ally, but will never be Hezbollah's boss." Yet, SSNP members run through Beirut neighborhoods putting up pictures of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Hezbollah supporters say, "We do not like these pictures being put up. They are very bad. This is Lebanon, not Syria. The SSNP and Amal will be very happy if Syria returns. We do not believe this at all."

Hezbollah, even after undermining Lebanese democracy and security by invading Lebanese territory in collaboration with Amal and the SSNP, continues to claim it is only fighting for Lebanon and for the Lebanese people. Everything that is bad is blamed on Amal and the SSNP.

Hezbollah and its members love to talk about how good and just Hezbollah is. They love to claim that Hezbollah members are men of God who will not do anything evil and corrupt. Then, why do they cooperate with assassins, thieves, and thugs?

Hezbollah loves to tell everyone about how powerful they are. Their leaders love to claim that they can take over Lebanon before other leaders even know what has happened. They love to point out, as Naim Qassem did, that the Shia population is nearly a third of the Lebanese population, perhaps more. They love to project their power democratically, militarily, and through their media propaganda outlets. Why is it, then, that they need such horrible allies that they themselves claim are horrible allies? Why this visible, on-the-ground cooperation? Why make positive proclamations about pure Syrian allies without popular support, like Talal Arslan and Wiam Wahhab, as if these figures will be future Nobel Peace Prize Laureates?

Parliamentary elections? Amal and SSNP are on Hezbollah's list.

Political ideologies? In practice, Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP vote along the same lines once elected into office, and boycott the exact same meetings.

Riots? Guess who all comes out together? Guess who got center stage during the 8 March 2005 "thank you, Syria" rally?

Application of the law? Hezbollah, Amal, and SSNP all abuse state authority and prefer to deal with anything through political connections, undermining the Lebanese government. Hezbollah polices its own areas, and illegally kidnaps foreigners and Lebanese policemen. Hezbollah and Amal block positive developments for the people of Ouzai who are in desperate need of a sewage system. Hezbollah has not once objected to the way their allies pilfer state coifers. Even though they love to attack pro-government parties for civil war era abuses and Syrian era graft, al Manar has not once complained about the massacres Amal committed against the Palestinians during the civil war, or the enormous sums of money Amal, SSNP, and other allied leaders took from the Lebanese government.

Hezbollah may claim to hate Amal and the SSNP groups in order to maintain its holier than though image, but years of cooperation display the diametric opposite.

Hezbollah Gathering Intelligence on Supporters of Government

Hezbollah stole computer hard drives and organizational papers from many Future Movement offices. An SSNP source claims, "Hezbollah now has the names, addresses, and phone numbers of many members of the Future Movement and other supporters. This information will be used against Future supporters soon." I also heard corroborating information from a European diplomat.

A Future Movement friend recently had an SSNP friend recount his evening events for him: "You left Sakiet Jinzeer from Pain d'Or at 4pm with a friend. You went to Jal ad Dib, and then to Sassine. You went to a pub in Hamra and met with another person. You arrived at home at 11pm. They know who you are."

The SSNP source argues, "If they don't come to an agreement soon, this country will become Rwanda. The Amal and Future people are all poor. They don't care about what they are doing. They want violence just to be violent. They will kill for $100 or less. You saw what happened in Halba. You see the 15 year olds running through the streets with assault rifles. There are no laws in Lebanon, now. This is anarchy, and the one who has the gun does what he wants."

Hezbollah got what it wanted from the government. After the Lebanese Cabinet chose to rescind its decisions on removing the head of airport security and removing Hezbollah's telephone network, Hezbollah controlled areas lit up with machine gun fire.

According to other sources, Hezbollah will push for more concessions by the government. However, the government has red lines it will not cross. If Hezbollah then decides to push for more, or worse, if Hezbollah decides to invade the Grand Serail and literally take the Lebanese Cabinet ministers hostage, then the Army will immediately split, and Lebanon will face war.

There is very little optimism in the streets of Beirut.

Civil Disobedience

Obviously, I'm angry about Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP's invasion of Beirut. They continue to claim that their armed attack is "civil disobedience." Obviously, they are not familiar with satyagraha and Dr. King.

However, I'm in a quandary regarding my fellow residents of Beirut.

1) Should we go back to our normal lives and not allow the brigands to stop us from doing what we choose? This would be a true act of non-violent civil disobedience in the face of menacing threats.

2) Should we keep business closed and huddle in our homes to prevent from giving an excuse to the brigands to become more violent and to save ourselves?

My friends and I are following the first track. We are continuing our lives, documenting the atrocities, and being active members of our communities. We aren't going to let the people who terrorized us stop us from doing what we need to do.

The vast majority of other people in Beirut are following the second path.

Situation in Christian Areas

The Christian areas between Beirut's Christian district of Ashrafieh and the northern Christian Lebanese city of Batroun are stable and relatively unaffected by the current events elsewhere in the country.

According to friends in the Chouf, the atmosphere is tense. There are still more reports coming out of the Chouf as to what happened and is happening. One of the main reasons why very little has been reported on this battle is because Hezbollah did not allow film crews into the area. Al-Arabiya and the BBC were the only networks covering the conflict, and both did so from behind Druze lines.

Eerie Feelings in Beirut

Beirut is dead.

At11pm, Gemmayze, one of Beirut's central night neighborhoods, closed up shop.

The late night places in Hamra, like De Prague, Barometre, Regusto (formerly, Chez Andre) and Evergreen, closed as well.

This is not the Beirut I know.

What's happening in the Chouf, now

Supposedly, 300 Druze shuyukh (sheikhs) supported the Druze community in the regions around Choueifat and Aley.

Now, I hear reports that Hezbollah intelligence is searching the region for military age males. According to a friend from Deir Qoubel, many of these men, fathers and providers for their families, have fled to guarantee their safety.

Supposedly, Hezbollah is extremely upset about their loss in the Chouf, and particularly that their soldiers were not only killed, but captured, which is a much bigger dishonor. One friend from Aley suggests, Hezbollah is trying to track down Druze to both take revenge and to kidnap to use as a bargaining chips with the Druze community, which killed many Hezbollah invading fighters and captured two others, along with, allegedly, two Iranian observers.

One of the major rumors floating around is that a plane from Iran landed at the Rafiq Hariri International Airport after it was closed. I have no doubt if this is true, or if it is pro-government disinformation.

While Hariri Spoke

While Hariri spoke, Amal's NBN TV broadcast images of dead bodies from the Halba battles. It appears that Lebanese Sunni committed this horrific crime and must be held responsible for their actions. However there is no evidence that Saad Hariri ordered the attack. Whereas Hezbollah, Amal, and SSNP leadership is definitely responsible for the terrorism, chaos, deaths, and murders that took place in Beirut. They must be held responsible for their crimes, and must re-pay the Lebanese people, businesses, and government for the harm and destruction they caused.

Bobby Worth of the New York Times covers the Chouf war.

Future Back On Air

Future TV is back on air. Future CEO Nadim al Munla is on, and Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi is calling in, at the moment.

A technician is showing the torn and cut Future TV cables and where equipment was broken and stolen.

Future Movement leader Saad Hariri is now giving a speech. He just called for a moment of silence. He's speaking from Koreitem.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad has been giving a speeching, which is still going on.


Tayyar.org forums has a report on the massacre that occured in Halba in north Lebanon. According to the report, Future Movement members massacred members of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.

As I posted during the conflict, Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP attacks inflamed sectarian and political feelings in the country. The atrocities visited on the residents of Beirut inflamed the Sunni in the north who are taking out their feelings of powerlessness on SSNP members in the north who did not participate in the attacks in Beirut, but ideologically support the violence that occured in Beirut and who support a return of Syrian occupation to Lebanon.

Getting Accurate Information During Conflict

Much of the information on television is propaganda or psy-ops.

Hezbollah uses it's media network, just like it's telephone network, for militant purposes. They feel little interest in uncovering the truth. Instead, they announce entirely inaccurate and false information to destroy the morale of their opponents.

Hezbollah also prevents other media outlets from reporting from areas they control, like al-Arabiya, which they have not only imprisoned, but banned from cable providers in their areas.

Future News is not on the air, and other channels seem more interested in broadcasting stupid speeches from third-rate Syrian era politicians than in reporting on the battles, the needs of the people, or providing specific information on which roads are opened/closed.

Much of the information being published comes from word-of-mouth accounts strung together, but not necessarily accurate. I know about my part of Hamra, and was chatting with others throughout the conflict to find out what was happening in the blocks around me, and in areas further afield. However, there are few ways to double-check the accuracy of the reports, particularly given that many accounts are emotion filled.

In the North and Chouf, entire villages took part in conflicts, thus increasing the eyes on the scene able to provide accurate accounts of what happened. The battles took place over a wider area, but there were fewer buildings, and especially fewer tall buildings, than in the crowded neighborhoods of Beirut.

Hopefully, we will get a few accurate reports with specifics. Every day, more information is coming in adding to details about what happened in Beirut and reframing it.

What Really Happened in the Chouf

The Druze community in the Chouf utterly defeated Hezbollah's attack.

On the very first night of Chouf combat, the Druze community in Aley armed with hunting rifles, kalashnikovs, and a few RPGs killed approxiamately 21 Hezbollah soldiers and captured two others. In a later conflict, Iranian "observers" were captured in Aley, according to a local source.

One scholar and educator from the Druze community explains, "Every man, young and old, came out to defend Aley. We only had the weapons in our houses. Some older men had civil war era weapons, like RPGs, but there were not many of them. I had no idea my community would be so spirited in its own defense.... Druze defend Druze. We were not fighting for our own lives, but the continuation our community."

In the village Deir Qoubel, the entire male population of the village came out to defend the town with hunting rifles and anything else available. According to a local source, the townspeople killed 11 Hezbollah attackers. One member of the community sustained injuries. The townspeople had the high ground and know the terrain well. Many people in the region are experienced hunters, mostly of small birds.

I assume that the Hezbollah fighters were not wearing body armor. From what I observed in Beirut, the Hezbollah fighters did not wear body armor there, either. However, their equipment is modern and sophisticated, and their tactics are well honed.

Druze members of the Hezbollah allied Syrian Social Nationalist Party sided with their community against their political ally. One Druze SSNP member argues, "when your guard dog becomes too powerful, you need to think about putting it to sleep." This was a war for survival.

Thirteen Hezbollah vehicles invaded the Chouf from the Bekaa Valley, but were captured in Barouk and Niha. Barouk is one of Lebanon's few wildlife sanctuaries. The sanctuary is a pet project of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and his wife Nora, who is of Shia origins. It is one of the few places in Lebanon where the Cedar of Lebanon grows; thus it is a symbolic site for both the Druze leader and Lebanon. Niha is where the Druze religious leader the Sheikh al Aql lives. It is a religious pilgrimage site, Naby Ayoub, or St. Job. Hezbollah attacked a holy place, and were rightly prevented from committing acts of violence there.

According to media reports, the Druze community dragged out World War II era 160 millimeter shells to defend themselves. Friends living in Dahieh report that they observed the Druze descending down the mountain towards Hezbollah dominated Dahieh. She claims that ordinance (but unsure of what type) hit Dahieh and set off car alarms in her area. Many local residents fled. The Druze community made sure that Hezbollah knew that the Shia community, too, is vulnerable to attack. The only way Lebanon will remain stable, and the only way for Lebanese to live in peace is if Lebanese participate in true representative democracy and do not overturn the institutions of the state and endanger the lives of other communities.

According to a source close to the Arslan family, many supporters of pro-Syrian, pro-Hezbollah Druze leader Talal Arslan are moving away from the leader. Just like the SSNP members who sided with their communities over their political allegiances, the supporters of Arslan realize that no one will protect the Druze villages if they do not protect themselves. This is no longer an issue of politics, but one of survival.

According to Tony Badran's sources, pro-Syrian Druze leader Wi'am Wahhab and his followers have fled the Chouf and are unlikely to be allowed back. They turned on their community in its time of need.

The Druze have closed ranks. They know that no one will protect their community if they don't do it themselves. Druze know that their leader, Walid Jumblatt, like his father before him, serves three roles:
1) as the most competent and able leader of his community;
2) as a Lebanese leader;
3) as a progressive leader.

His role as a national leader prevented him from publicly endorsing the Druze community's justified campaign against Hezbollah's invasion. Jumblatt did his best to provide national and international safety and legitimacy to his community, and publicly called for peace and an end to violence. He asked for Druze unity, and ordered his supporters to turn their weapons over to pro-Syrian, pro-Hezbollah leader Talal Arslan, who took this as an opportunity to aggrandize himself giving myriad interviews, and claiming that the Chouf supports the resistance and are people of the resistance. Note that Arslan only asked the Druze community to relinquish their weapons to him, but made no demands on Hezbollah, even though it was Hezbollah who attacked the Druze community, of which Arslan is a member.

Jumblatt's community, which followed his orders completely in Beirut, knew they could not let the Chouf fall, and knew the difficult political situation Lebanon currently faces.

The Sunnis cannot and will not stop Hezbollah. Sunni supporters in the Arab world never provide the amount of support Lebanon needs. The Sunni regimes, unlike the Shia Iranian regime and the Alawite Syrian regime, are never willing to make sacrifices to get what they want. Even more worrying for the Druze, will any of the regional religious powers make sacrifices for the Druze if the community is on the verge of annihilation?

The Lebanese Christian community does not have enough internal unity or external support to insure the Druze community that it will be protected. The Druze and the Christians still have festering problems left over from the civil war, as well.

As a friend noted, the feeling in the Druze community is, "all we can do now is refuse any political concessions to Hizbullah linked to the violence, arm ourselves to the teeth, and wait to see the international reaction." He continues, "There is a sense that the Hezb does not want the Druze to be part of the Lebanese equation," especially given Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's anti-Jumblatt remarks immediately prior to his militant takeover of Beirut. "Every step they have taken, given all the fronts they have opened, indicate this."

A Future for the US Funded Lebanese Army?

In 2005, US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said that she understood the dynamic in Lebanon and, as such, the United States would not call for the immediate disarmament of Hezbollah. Instead, the United States would work to strengthen Lebanese government institutions.

The Internal Security Forces received brand new equipment, and many officers were trained in the United States.

The Lebanese Army has a long-standing relationship with the US military: generals Michel Aoun, Emile Lahoud, and Michel Sleiman have all received training in the United States. Even during the Syrian occupation, the United States was the number one provider of military assistance to Lebanon.

After the Syrian withdrawal, the US increased the amount of aid and technical assistance it provides the Lebanese Army. During the war between the Lebanese Army and Fatah al Islam in Nahr al Bared, the United States provided Lebanon with most of its ammunition, humvees, airplanes, and other supplies. Lebanon's other supposed allies Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and France provided Lebanon with little to no military assistance.

However, as Lee Smith points out, the United States might be thinking twice about providing the Lebanese Army with any more munitions in the future. Despite three years of assistance, the Lebanese Army remains more in the position of a caretaker than as an active military force capable of preventing violence and defending the country from chaos.

The Next War with Israel

Whenever Hezbollah and Israel clash, the residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley flee those regions, and seek refuge in Beirut and the Chouf mountains. The vast majority of these refugees are Shia.

Within the last year, NOW Lebanon ran a story on Lebanese Shia fears that other Lebanese communities will not take them in after the destruction and undemocratic behavior of Hezbollah's 2006 war and the heightening tensions over the Lebanese government, cabinet, and presidency. In 2006, many Shia were angry with the less-than-hospitable, but good enough reception they received. The increased political tensions after the war made them fear reprisals during the next conflict, which led many Shia with money to buy property in Syria.

After this conflict, it seems that the residents of Beirut and the Chouf will not think twice before denying aid and shelter to the Shia community. The Shia community voted Amal and Hezbollah into power and, according to Hezbollah, the vast majority of Shia support the "resistance."

Hezbollah attacked the Sunni and Druze communities. They have killed innocent civilians and terrorized all residents of Beirut. The anger at Hezbollah and their supporters is palpable.

This issue was brought to my attention by MarxistfromLebanon who writes, "if the opposition thinks the rift is closed with the logic of "freeing the Sunnis from the Future Movement," there is one scary reply quote I got: "Let them see who will open their homes when Israel hits them again." Will this be the new retaliation form of sectarianism?"

Sunni Militia?

Who is the fixer for the LA Times in Beirut? Why is the LA Times feeding into the anti-government, pro-Hezbollah propaganda machine?

This story is a lame attempt to make it seem like the Sunni pro-government Future Movement had a militia fighting against Hezbollah. Despite what is written at the beginning of the article, the author somewhat comes clean about what she insinuates by noting towards the end that Sunni security for leader Saad Hariri were not even allowed to have guns.

The author tries to paint security company Secure Plus as something akin to Blackwater. The truth is that Secure Plus is a glorified private security company. They train their staff to a greater extent than security guards who monitor parking garage cameras, but do not train them in military tactics on how to launch RPGs and take and control terrain, similar to Hezbollah. Given the number of assassinations in Beirut in recent history, these guards are trained in evasive maneuvers in order to get their leader out of a bind quickly. These tactics often involve a lot of pushing and fast driving.

Hariri's private security does not have the training or experience to take on an army.

USS Cole Coming to Beirut?

Lebanese media is claiming that the USS Cole just passed through the Suez Canal. They are claiming that the ship is on the way to the Lebanese coast.

Friends on Facebook chat tell me that they think this will just hand Hezbollah another propaganda victory. A political analyst with the Quantum Group says that this is a good development and will put Hezbollah and Syria in their place. He suggests that the US hit Syria, not Lebanon.

Lebanese have no idea what is going on. We are left trying to figure out what to do next.

Lebanese all must be political analysts to figure out what to do next: risk one's life fleeing for the mountains, or stay for the ceasefire? Invest in a business opportunity, or put all one's money in a French bank?

Some news sources estimate that over 100 people have been killed. For what?

Fighting Dies Down, and Media Strategies

The fighting in the Chouf has died down.

Most of the Lebanese news channels showed the same footage and mounted their cameras in the same place. However, the commentary was entirely different.

Hezbollah's al-Manar refers to all pro-government political parties as militias and fighters. They refer to all opposition militias (ie, the guys with guns on my street from Amal and SSNP), as parties.

Amal's NBN is irrate that al-Arabiya refers to their armed gunmen causing chaos in the streets of Beirut as a militia. NBN is adamant that Amal is just a political party.

The pro-government Future TV is still closed. Hezbollah fighters cut their connecting cables.

Pro-opposition New TV has good coverage of what is going on throughout Beirut. Hezbollah is not preventing their movements.

Al-Arabiya has the best Google Earth maps depicting the regions in the Chouf from which the Druze community is battling the Hezbollah onslaught. The Druze fighters dressed in green uniforms with backpacks allow al-Arabiya to film them, but Hezbollah prevents al-Arabiya from reporting from any areas they control.

Hezbollah's propaganda and the accompanying propaganda from Iran's English language Press TV is utterly preposterous. They are telling blatant lies about the Beirut population being happy about Hezbollah's takeover. They claim that everything in Beirut is back to normal and that no one supported the government's moment of silence. They also like to repeatedly claim that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora resigned, even though images on other channels show him in the Grand Serail.

The pro-government Christian Lebanese Forces is not participating in the conflict, but Hezbollah's al-Manar is demonizing him and showing images of the LF fighting in the Lebanese civil war. They are badmouthing everyone else in Lebanon, but they do not show any images of Hezbollah's violent behavior or the despicably horrible evils the Amal militia, the SSNP, the Marada, or the Syrian Army committed during the war.

It looks like it will be a quiet night, but the media war is on.

According to my friends in central Beirut, it is eery and tense.

Jumblatt calls for Druze to stop fighting

Druze and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and PSP higher up and Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi spoke earlier on TV with trepidation in their voices asking for the Druze to stop fighting.

Jumblatt ordered his followers in Aley to hand their weapons over to rival Druze leader and opposition member Talal Arslan. Arslan urged the opposition to stop attacking the Chouf and the Druze residents there.

However, the television images show large fires in the Chouf. Friends living in the Hezbollah dominated southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahieh) tell me that all of the shops in their area are closing and that people are fleeing: "Dahieh is next! Dahieh is next!" is what they are all yelling.

Up to this point, Hezbollah dominated areas have been calm during this conflict. My friends tell me that RPG fire is so close now that car alarms are going off. I'm told that they are watching Druze descend from the mountain on Dahieh.

Update: Lebanese American University will be closed, tomorrow.

AUB Closed Tomorrow

The American University of Beirut canceled classes tomorrow. This is distressing news because AUB tries never to cancel classes, even when the Lebanese government calls for schools to officially close after assassinations or for national holidays (like Armenian Christmas).

The Lebanese American University's website claims that classes will be held tomorrow, but they might change their minds given that Choueifat and the Chouf are currently under barrage.

What is most disturbing to Lebanese high school students is that international exams are scheduled simultaneously around the world. Students taking International Baccalaureate exams must take their exams under a barrage of gunfire, and even though many of them cannot get home, and must worry about the safety of their families.

No Fighting, but Still Tense

The insanity of the last few days is over (at least for now), but everyone is still extremely tense. The return of masked gunmen to Hamra this afternoon gave all of us a shock that more could happen. Even if this afternoon escalation had not happened, Beirut residents are still traumatized and angry.

The atmosphere is horrible, and our attitudes will not change until our neighborhoods change. When traffic returns to our streets, students return to schools and universities, pubs and restaurants re-open, the physical damage is repaired, the political flags are taken down, and the usual Lebanese/Gulf Arab hedonism bring back the superficiality, music blaring from garish cars, and overly preened style our anger and frustration might lessen, and our spirits might be lifted.

Many neighborhood residents, myself included, cannot enjoy ourselves in our areas right now. The memories are horrible. The mental categorization through which we make sense of the world and frame our homes and communities, and the psychological stability our rational minds created using sensorial views like buildings, smiling neighbors, noises, smells, and predictable happenings has been broken.

As a professor at the American University of Beirut professor notes, "The streets literally changed. The space we live in has changed." The people we knew no longer have the same faces.

Hezbollah's Whining and Media Strategy

Hezbollah is claiming that te Druze in Aley "kidnapped" two of their men last night. However, the better word to use is "captured." Hezbollah tried to invade Aley and the community there refused to allow them in.

Unfortunately, there is no way that the community could hand the men over to the Lebanese Army or Internal Security Forces for breaking the law because they organizations will suddenly become politicized. Hezbollah will demand their men back and will threaten violence if they are not returned.

Yet, Hezbollah continues to whine about the men's capture. Al Manar repeated over and over in its 3pm newscast the issue of the men's capture, and it led their news scroll. They said they are holding Walid Jumblatt personally responsible. What has not been confirmed is Hezbollah's claim that the captured men were killed with knives. If this is the case, it is a sad development, but understandly in a time of war, especially in a country where the men (and the men who ordered the attack) will not be held responsible for their actions.

A professor at the American University of Beirut said about this situation, "Hezbollah is acting like a petulant child. They are so unhappy about this. Bad losers. This is what happens during war. This is what happens when you invade someone's territory. They take your men."


Aside: From my window, I can see smoke rising from central Beirut.

Syria's Plan

In a conversation with a PSP activist, we put the rumors we heard together, and found that there might be greater plans involved in these recent clashes. This is speculation, but it seems like there is a specific pre-constructed narrative being followed, and the weak link in the chain providing most of the information are SSNP guys.

It seems like Hezbollah's putsch is part of a larger plan to legitimate a Syrian return to Lebanon.

Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP tried to start clashes with the Sunni Future Movement and Druze PSP. Hezbollah assumed they would win after a week or so of clashes in Beirut and then dictate the narrative, claiming that they "liberated" the area. They followed their plan to take over all of Beirut, and then humiliate Hariri at the end by storming his compound. The only problem was that the March 14 parties refused to fight back and took away the clashes Hezbollah needed to legitimate their attacks ex post facto.

The plan was always to give territory back to the Army, but that is because the Army is merely a national symbol and placate the feelings of the community, while Hezbollah would remain in charge.

The SSNP would be the vanguard, placing posters of Syrian President Bashar al Assad everywhere. Hezbollah would be the enforcers, and try to keep some level of legitimacy by claiming that the SSNP guys are the Syria supporters. Amal and Berri would be the negotiating partner.

Hezbollah started clashes in the Bekaa simultaneous to the clashes in Beirut to make it seem like the fighting is national, but also to begin the process of providing Syria with an excuse to re-enter the country.

The SSNP forces were to rally in Metn (the suburban Christian area north of Beirut) a few days after Hezbollah started the clashes in Beirut (ie, some time around now or within the next few days). They would first join the fight against the Druze, but then use some action by other Christians in Metn as an excuse to begin clashes there. Given that the SSNP started organizing yesterday simultaneously throughout the country, it seems they are coordinating to strike soon.

The SSNP in the north will aid the supporters of pro-Syrian Sunni leader Omar Karami and other pro-Syrian factions in Tripoli. The SSNP in Koura would be the vanguard there, while the pro-Syrian northern Christian leader of the Marada Party Sleiman Franjieh would act like a combination of Hezbollah and Amal in Beirut.

Within a week, the Syrians would start griping about security on its border. Some attack would probably be staged on its border. They would use this as an excuse to enter Lebanon in some way.


Not Falling For It

According to my PSP source, March 14 is trying to foil Syrian plans, again. The Syrians have tried to cause an outbreak of violence before:

1) Assassinating Christian figures in 2005.
2) Setting off bombs in Christian residential neighborhoods in the middle of the night to terrorize the community and start a backlash.
3) Sending Hezbollah supporters through Ashrafieh on regular occasions with clubs to attack and intimidate Christians to spur a response.
4) Use mass demonstrations, riots, and attacks on the Serail to try to overthrow the government with superficial Christian support from Michel Aoun.
5) Spur on Palestinian militants to bomb Christian buses, and then have them create chaos in the north.
6) Bomb prominent sites (ABC mall in a Christian area, shopping center in Sunni/Shia/Druze Verdun, Aley shopping street) and try to get the populatin flustered.

Sadly, they might have accomplished their goal this time. Reprisals might begin soon. The attack on the Sunni funeral in Tariq al Jdeide today might be the beginning, and residents of Hamra are really angry with the SSNP for terrorizing them and destroying their shops and neighborhood.

Situation worsening

It looks like the situation is getting bad again. I think I'm going to move north.

Hezbollah realizes that their plan didn't work. They know they need to either capitulate or escalate. We don't know what escalation entails, but a few weapons were fired in Hamra again, and the streets are very quiet.

Support Free Speech

Mustapha at Beirut Spring created a banner supporting free speech in Lebanon.

Check it out.

Walking Around Hamra

SSNP guys sit on many corners in Hamra and are patrolling on motor scooters. Their flags are everywhere, and they are gloating.

I was regularly mistaken for being an SSNP guy while out walking, because I am the right age, wearing the right clothes, and fitting the right physique to be one of their guys. The SSNP security guys gave me nods, the Army diverted their eyes, and the neighborhood residents gave me looks of absolute hatred.

Talking to people, my suspicions were confirmed. There was very little actual fighting. Most of the arms and RPG firing came from a bunch of Amal and SSNP kids having fun playing with their weapons.

Beautiful buildings are shot through. A number of shops were targetted. The SSNP members ran around the neighborhood shooting up the shops of Hariri supporters.

Nothing breeds more animosity in local residents who realize that they were terrorized by the punks across the street.

Some Sunni youth also acted like punks. They claimed to support Hariri, but just wanted to shoot guns and stick people up for money. They forced Syrian workers to pay them bribes. They told buildings in Caracas to pay up, or else they would use their roofs to fire on Hezbollah.

Sadly, these kids got themselves into a fight they were not prepared for. Near the intersection of Hamra and Sadat, a 15 year old and an 8 year old were killed while shooting guns from a motorscooter at Hezbollah fighters.

The Responses of Ras Beirut Residents

I've been walking around my neighborhood visiting people to make sure they are okay, and these are a few things I've heard:

"Berri has no right to be Speaker of Parliament any more. His militia took to the streets in direct violation of the 1990 law. They did not disarm, and they worked against Lebanese government institutions. He was not doing his job before, but now this proves that he is just a militia warlord.

"If these SSNP don't stop roaming around the neighborhood, I'm going to shoot them myself. They are always in gangs of 5 or 6. I could take all of them out at once."

"The Saudis want the US to attack Iran, now. They don't care. This got them too angry."

Heading out again...

Jumblatt Unhappy with Aley Fights

According to a member of the Progressive Social Party who fought in the battles last night, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is unhappy that his community fought back against Hezbollah in the Chouf.

According to this PSP member, the entire male Druze population in Aley blocked off all access to their city and came out in full force to protect their houses, which Hezbollah was attacking. They were armed with AKs and RPGs. They killed four Hezbollah fighters, and captured two. Supposedly, they have pictures of both.

According to friends who were monitoring the attacks, Hezbollah sent similar teams into Aley as they did into West Beirut. I'll have a description of this soon.

It was a quiet night, and it is a quiet morning. Birds chirping, sun shining, but frighteningly little noise on the streets of Hamra.

Attacks in the Chouf, and a bit of humor

Hezbollah wanted a confrontation in Beirut.  They didn't get it, and are now a bit embarrassed, so they are now attacking the Chouf.  The Druze community fought back, and four Hezbollah fighters were killed.

According the LBC news, a large portrait of Syrian President Bashar Assad hangs on the attacked Future TV building.

(Not for those offended by foul language)  Another blogger writes, "Someone found my blog by googling Arabs love to burn tires."  I found it a bit amusing.

March 14 Didn't Fight, so What did Hezbollah Win?

This is the first time in 2 days that I can leave my house, and I'm going to take this opportunity.

However, before I do so, I think it is important to note a few things:

1) The Army and the Internal Security Forces did not fight Hezbollah.

2) The March 14 leadership, as stated specifically by Walid Jumblatt, did take arms against Hezbollah. They did not barricade the streets of Beirut. They took no military measures to prevent Hezbollah/Amal/the Syrian Social Nationalist Party from doing what they chose to do.

There were gun clashes with local residents angry at Hezbollah's armed and intimidating approach, but unlike Hezbollah's coordinated drive, March 14 leaders did not combat Hezbollah.

3) Hezbollah controls territory in West Beirut, but is completely in violation of Lebanese law and the Constitution. There is no justification for their actions, and it is hard to understand why they did it in the first place. Some March 14 leaders believe that Hezbollah wanted them to fight back, but they refused.

Hezbollah has now, undeniably, used its weapons against the Lebanese state and its people. It has undeniably subverted democracy and the government institutions sworn to protect it.

4) The Army and other government institutions proved that they are not biased in favor or against any particular group in Lebanon. Obviously, a few Army biases became apparent, but this is more of a concern to faction leaders than to citizens.

5) Hezbollah and its allies cost Lebanon approximately $1 billion of damages: shutting down the airport for three days, shutting down the port, halting the transit of goods across the border to Syria, destroying roads and highways, destroying public parks and monuments, destroying the residences of parliamentary members and their vehicles, burning down newspaper offices and television stations, damaging apartment buildings, closing schools, halting exams, shutting down all commerce in Beirut. And that is not even mentioning the lives lost and the mental damage done to the entire population

6) Hezbollah now appears more similar to a foreign aggressor than a local party with which to negotiate. Like Israel did during the 2006 war, Hezbollah first stopped traffic at the airport, then immobilized movement throughout the country, halted commerce, emasculated government institutions and political leaders, and denied the Lebanese government sovereignty over its own territory.

7) Which Beirut citizen ever voted for Hezbollah to administer the city? Do you think they are happy to have their votes and opinions torn up by foreign funded militia? Did Beirut residents ask for what Hezbollah did? Hezbollah claims it defends Lebanon against Israel, but they are going to have a difficult time explaining to the residents of Beirut how exactly it is that Hezbollah is accomplishing its goals by wasting resources in Beirut?

7) How will Hezbollah begin its negotiations with March 14? With blackmail? Don't fire Walid Shouqeir from his job at the airport, and we'll give you a bunch of property we don't own and have no to administrate?

8) How can Hezbollah claim that the government is unconstitutional when Hezbollah blatantly flaunts the government on issues from government appointments, to telecommunications, to defense, to sharing of powers, and so on?

9) How long will the people of Beirut put up with this farce?

10) How is this even slightly to Hezbollah's benefit?

Hezbollah Controls Beirut

The gun battle I wrote about earlier resulted in Hezbollah taking control of the area around Hariri's palace in Koreitem. They didn't storm the palace, but they control entry and exit.

There are Hezbollah members all over Hamra, and also Amal and SSNP militamen running around all over the place. The SSNP is putting flags up all over the streets of Hamra.

There are shell casings all over, and scars of battles on many buildings: broken windows, holes in walls.

Some people are walking in the streets.

Massive Firefight in Koreitem

There is a massive gun battle going on in Koreitem right now.

It seems like Amal and Hezbollah tried to advance on Future, which is protecting the residence of Future Movement head, parliement majority leader, and the primary face of the Sunni community in Lebanon, Saad Hariri.

Hezbollah's Subtle Takeover

Hezbollah has taken control of the media in Lebanon, and their propaganda campaign has already begun. They are currently presenting themselves as liberators of Lebanon, and allies of the Lebanese Army against a corrupt government supported by pro-government snipers and brigrands.

Hezbollah's militant takeover of Beirut and its systematic destruction of the authority of the state and freedom of the press suggests a sophisticated and planned campaign to take power. There is no hiding the violence Hezbollah used to seize Beirut and cut it off from the rest of the country. But as their media campaign is already showing, Hezbollah is employing subtle and sophisticated mechanisms to take over the rest of Lebanon. All news which could be construed as negative behaviors, such as the blatant destruction and corruption of Lebanese institutions, is hidden beneath a Hezbollah-dominated media blackout.

No one knows if Hezbollah is currently occupying government building, re-routing the telecommunications networks, placing weapons in areas they could not gain access to before, and more. If Hezbollah wins this battle, this information will never be made public.


Attacking the pro-Government Press
Future Television and Future News, both owned by parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri, have been shut down. According to Future CEO Nadim al Munla, Hezbollah militiamen said they would dynamite the multimillion dollar Future buildings, including the brand new and state of the art Future News building and studios, if they continue to broadcast. Al Mustaqbal newsaper, the newspaper paper of the Future Movement, was burned down, and Future radio has gone off the air.

Journalists cannot gain access to the myriad areas of Beirut in which fighting is taking place. Al-Manar television claimed earlier today that Hamra is peaceful and calm, and yet opposition militiamen are positioned on my street corner regularly firing their weapons. They fired off an RPG a few hours ago. Those who try to walk out on the streets are prevented from doing so. This is peace only according to the authoritarian definition of the word.

The Lebanese Broadcasting Channel (LBC), a Christian station based in the northern Christian region of Jounieh (Adma), is not even trying to cover the specifics on the ground, and most likely cannot gain access.

Al Jadid, Arabic for New TV, was granted the interview with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, has some of the best footage of this conflict. The station is normally pro-Hezbollah and supports the opposition, but seems to be leaning a bit in favor of the government (or at least the Sunni community), now.


Hezbollah's Media Campaign
Hezbollah's Al Manar TV is reporting on events in Lebanon, but much of the information, as I noted about the situation in Hamra, is skewed to make it appear like Hezbollah has liberated Beirut. The station is claiming that the opposition militants who are terrorizing the religiously diverse neighborhoods of Beirut are turning over the territory they have captured to the Lebanese Army. Hezbollah also claims that its forces have arrested the "bad," local militants and snipers and turned them over to the Lebanese Army.

From what I can see out my window, that does not appear to be the case. Hezbollah and Amal militiamen are on my streets firing automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades. According to a friend a few buildings over, Hezbollah and Amal have a sniper positioned on her roof. The Lebanese Army is nowhere in site.


Targeting the Lebanese Christians
Hezbollah seems to be making a concerted effort to placate the Christian population. Ashrafieh was not attacked, and life is relatively normal in the Christian suburbs north of Beirut.

Al Jazeera is claiming that Hezbollah has made a "concession" by opening the airport road. As was told to me by a veteran Lebanese reporter, all of the journalists and news agencies reporting right now have been vetted by Hezbollah. Even if the news is true, it is written to present Hezbollah's actions as gracious.

Michel Aoun just gave an interview claiming that the crisis will be over soon. He even noted that the illegal occupation of Beirut's downtown by opposition militants will end soon. Many who watched his interview are happy to hear this news, despite it coming from a politician who appears to be Hezbollah's Christian spokesman. Once again, this sounds like propaganda that no other Lebanese faction is in a position to challenge.

My Christian friends are all happy to hear the news about the airport road, and are glad to hear the good news from Michel Aoun. The opposition is making themselves appear to be the saviors of the nation, solving all problems at once. The airport road which they closed and Beirut's downtown which they occupied will no longer be points of contention. The government which they froze and whose institutions they actively subverted will now be released from their stranglehold grip. We will now be told that we should be happy that they control everything and that freedom can now reign over this sovereign land that is no longer occupied by the evils of democracy.

Most likely, a president will be elected. Given his recent performances in support of Hezbollah, that president will most likely be Michel Aoun. Another deadlock will be broken. We will be told that this is the will of the people, which the evil and corrupt former government and their scheming American, French, Saudian Arabian allies prevented from occuring.


Depressing Conclusion
At the moment, it feels a bit like fall 2004 when the Syrians bullied all Lebanese factions into voting for a three year extension of Emile Lahoud's term in office. Rafiq al-Hariri resigned from office, and Lebanese parliamentarians and democratic activists kept their mouths shut while Syria appointed a government made up of its Lebanese cronies. When Lebanese politicians began to stir a bit, Druze parliamentarian Marwan Hamade was targetted for assassination, and barely survived.

According to NOW Lebanon online newspaper, pro-government websites are being attacked. So, we'll see what happens to this blog. The government's telecommunications company has probably been fully overrun by Hezbollah, and all of our calls and internet traffic could be monitored. A source in the pro-Hezbollah Syrian Social Nationalist Party claims that everything is being monitored right now. Good luck getting reliable news from Lebanon.

Is the War Over?

Have the Sunnis been defeated? Has Hezbollah followed the Hamas in Gaza model?

People on the street are saying that Saad Hariri is holding his forces back, that the real clashes will start when he wants them to. However, it appears to me that Amal and Hezbollah (now, simply referred to in my building - even by Shia - as "the Shia") have taken over without needing to spill much blood.

This is a war of intimidation. Hezbollah/Amal have proven that they have the capability to not only start chaos, but to quickly take over any and all Sunni areas and completely emasculate Sunni leaders by burning down their mulimillion dollar houses and forcing their multimillion dollar television stations off the air.

The thugs firing RPGs on my street are teenagers with weapons who have gone up against Hariri's private security, and won.

People in my building keep saying that there is a Blackwater-style South African trained mercenary army in Koreitem that will take back the neighborhood. I seriously doubt that given the way Future has been so quickly isolated.

Unfortunately, the anti-Shia racism going around now is at its heights. People are saying they will fire all of their Shia employees, and many are itching for personal reprisals; ie, "I can't take on Hezbollah and Amal thugs who refuse to let me out of my house, but I can beat up this poor Shia taxi driver, so I will."

Hezbollah has been very wise to attack the Sunnis. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has been wise to say that he is putting his trust in the Lebanese Army and security forces knowing full well that they would crumble in the face of opposition. If the Hezbollah attacked the Druze, they would have a real "take no prisoners" war on their hands.

The Sunnis were not prepared for this battle. Hariri took the lead, and he has been completely isolated. This has larger ramifications, given that Saudi Arabia and the Sunni sect now seem discredited and exposed.

Hezbollah's End Agenda

Hezbollah is not mounting a coup. They do not want to control ALL of Lebanon. They have no interest in controlling state institutions.

Hezbollah has and wants to perpetuate its own government that acts as an overseer of the Lebanese government. The Lebanese government is there to prevent other sects from creating their own statelets, militarizing, and fighting Hezbollah. How could any other sect possibly question this system? This is the system that the Syrians, to whom Hezbollah was so thankful on 8 March 2005, so benificently provided to Lebanon.

As Hezbollah's actions have proven, state institutions mean nothing to them. The Army, police, and government are here to keep everyone else in order, as long as Hezbollah is allowed to act with impunity.

Hezbollah has no interest in ruling other sects or doing the day to day management of Lebanon. Their goal is simply to get whatever they want from the Lebanese state, which is exactly what has happened for the last few years. Of course, this means that no other sect or group gets to do what they want.

The Lebanese government and people (including the Shia) should never, according to Hezbollah, do anything that impinges on Hezbollah's actions, or which might cause negative repercussions to Hezbollah's allies in Syria and Iran.

If Hezbollah decides to take actions which negatively affect Lebanese citizens - for example, starting a war with Israel that creates massive destruction, all other Lebanese must keep their mouths shut and allow Hezbollah to do whatever it decides is the best route forward. After the war, Hezbollah will kindly rebuild Hezbollah infrastructure, provide social welfare to their most loyal supporters in the Shia sect, and maybe throw pennies at the rest of us. However, they will expect the rest of us not to complain about the war, destruction, or the pittance they provide for us after the war (if we are even alive), and blame everything that happened on the Zionist enemy and the American conspiracy against Lebanon, which are the only reasons why bad things happen here.

Hezbollah will keep down any uppity sect. Demographically, there may be more Sunnis than Shia in Lebanon. Sunni politicians may have more money, more international connections, more votes, and even a parliamentary majority, but they are never to consider confronting the divine Hezbollah. If they do, Hezbollah will take over their neighborhoods, burn down the houses of their parliamentarians, destroy their political and media outlets, insult them, and fully emasculate them.

Rights? Hezbollah will start a war if one of their supporters is fired from a bureaucratic position. Take that Constitution and Lebanese people!

This Fight is Now Fully Sectarian

Yesterday morning, this was a battle about ideologies. Today, it is sectarian.

The way the people and, to a certain degree the news media, are portraying this controversy is as the Shia sect against everyone else.

I'm hearing people say things like, "They destroyed the Future news offices. Isn't this what Israel did to Hezbollah's al-Manar in the first days of the 2006 war?"

The reason for these sectarian perceptions from what I have heard are, amongst other things, Hezbollah has:

1) dishonored and personally offended Druze leader Walid Jumblatt;
2) emasculated the Lebanese government and institutions;
3) dishonored the entire Sunni sect;
4) destroyed the house and cars of a popular Sunni, Beiruti parliamentarian;
5) worn government police uniforms impersonating one of the institutions they are presently discrediting, and making the people fully distrust the institution;
6) prevented people from walking in the streets;
7) completely taken advantage of any trust any other Lebanese sect had for them.

On a lighter note

Thank you to everyone for all of their help.

I now have the telephone numbers of a few embassies, and the personal cell phones numbers of embassy staff. People from around the world are sending all sorts of helpful information, and I now have offers to stay at more homes throughout Lebanon than I could possibly even visit for tea in a one week period.

An extremely attractive friend said that if I could get out of Hamra, but couldn't get out of Beirut, I could stay with her in Ashrafieh. She then asked for my number. I provided it over Facebook chat, and she missed called me. Amazing! A war-time missed call! Too cool! I love technology.

Some friends just brought me food, and a friend at law school in New York is sending flirtatious messages from her law school classmates.

Things are going well, despite the gun battles in the streets.

However, I'm shocked that the major news agencies are not providing more information about what is going on here. There is an actual war going on (although they are basically taking up positions and firing their weapons more to mark territory than to kill their opponents), and yet the coverage is minimal.

The Israelis are celebrating their 60th anniversary, and Syrian President Bashar Assad is asking to negotiate with them. President Bush is trying to get the Palestinians and the Israelis back on track in their negotiations. I realize there is a lot of news coming out of the Levant, but there should be a little bit more coverage of Lebanon.

Obviously, the humanitarian disaster in Myanmar should be the first story mentioned in a newscast, but Lebanon should definitely come in second. There is a hot war going on here. The US and Zimbabwean elections are important, but don't deserve second billing. :)

Battlelines: The Details

The government supporting Future Movement currently control the south side of Hamra Street; the side that leads toward Koreitem, where Saad Hariri lives.

The Hezbollah supporting Amal Movement controls the north side of Hamra Street; their fighters have positioned themselves on Makdissi Street. The masked gunmen next to Smith's Grocery Store on Sadat St. whom I mentioned earlier are probably Amal, not Future.

An AUB student visiting relatives in my building made the mistake of walking out on the street. Immediately as he approached our building, two Amal members on a motor scooter drove up wearing masks and pulled him into an alcove. He recognized them as other AUB students.

There are sporadic clashes on Hamra Street between Malik al Batata and Sadat Street, ie in front of the Crowne Plaza Hotel and Roadster's Diner.

Friends in the building

I just went to a friend's apartment in my building. The atmosphere with them was totally different, but a bit too relaxed...

Still, it was nice to be with other people.

Home Alone

So, I'm home alone, and rather concerned.

People keep calling, but we get cut off after 30 seconds.

I'm being rather quiet because there is a lot of traffic going up to my roof. Hariri's compound is visible from here, as is Siniora's building. However, I haven't heard any firing from the roof.

The doorman claims that it might be other people in the building looking. I doubt that...

My bed is next to the windows, unfortunately. I'm tired, and want to sleep.

I haven't heard anything major in awhile. Just small arms.

We're all trapped in our buildings. If they don't come to some sort of solution, I hope the battle lines become more secure, so I know which faction the masked gunmen in my area are from and the precise location of the snipers.

Trapped in one place

I'm alone. It's not fun to be alone at times like these, even though I've got internet.

A group of people were considering moving half a block to one person's house. There are periodically people in the street. The guy at the house was watching from his balcony, and the street is clear and safe. No snipers on our street, and the walk is a few meters.

Then, from a completely different angle, another person on Facebook chat wrote to the friend guiding that a car with four masked gunmen was driving up the street, and they would see anyone if they were looking in the right direction.

Change of plans.

Then, someone fired a weapon from two blocks away from my position. I typed this in.

Now, there is small arms fire coming from Koreitem.

Fighting Breaks out again in Beirut

The bullets and RPGs are flying, again. There are sustained bursts, then quiet.

The RPGs make an interesting suction sound as they are fired.

It's dark. Oddly enough, many people in Hamra have their drapes open and lights on. That is surprising, but I guess shows that the situation is either not horribly bad, or that these people are just a bit ignorant.

Two separate friends both within two separate blocks in opposite directions just invited me to come over. Both assured me that the half a block in front of them are safe, but could not say anything about the rest of the journey.

It sounds like an RPG just landed on my street, though.

Hariri Finishes Speaking and Guns Start Again

Saad Hariri listed demands to Hezbollah: opening the roads, electing a president, keeping unity, etc.

His speech ended, and the gunfire picked up again. It isn't very bad, though. It is sporadic. There are no battles going on.

Hariri calls for Negotiations with Nassrallah

Future Movement and March 14 parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri just called for one on one talks with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.

Hariri speaking

Taking a break to watch Hariri speak...

Calming Down

It's 8pm now and the sun has gone down.

I don't hear much in terms of gun battles now. Everyone is watching the news to see what happened, what is happening, and what will happen.

My friends in Corniche al Mazraa, UNESCO, Dar al Fatwa, Mar Elias, and many others are trapped at home. It is not safe for them to leave the house. A friend in Hamra who runs a restaurant cannot go back home to Wata Msseitbeh.

We're all waiting, but I haven't heard any firing in about 10 minutes, which is a good sign. I hear the voices of children in the street, another good sign.

(Oh, there goes a burst of gunfire, but in the distance).

According to friends in other parts of Ras Beirut, including right next to Smith's Grocery Store on Sadat, there are masked gunmen running around in the street. Next to Smith's the gunmen are probably members of the Future Movement. Every night, I see Future members sitting on that corner. They are from the neighborhood, so they won't turn their guns inward on us.

This battle is entirely political. There are sectarian dimensions, but no one is targetting civilians.
(burst of gunfire nearby) We just need to stay out of their way, and we should be fine.

Visiting People

The sky is ominously cloudy and gray.

I'm sitting alone at home with time to ponder:

Maybe the reason for Lebanese warm hospitality to random guests comes from the upheaval this country has experienced. If someone shows up at your doorstep, take them in and make them feel really good, because you don't know what they've been through.

My internet works, but the phone lines are jammed from too many calls. If I want to go to someone else's house for the night, there is no way to call them in advance. Luckily, I can trust most Lebanese to assist me along my way, and my relatives and friends will be offended if I choose to stay with one family over another: "Oh, you went to stay with them because Rania's a better cook, eh?"

Advice from the Older Generation

I'm getting advice through chatting programs about what to do if I can't leave and the situation gets worse. Much of it is common knowledge from the civil war:

Sit in the bathroom - bathtub if it gets really bad. Get away from the windows.

Make sure the doorman likes you.

Don't try to leave the neighborhood before you know where the snipers are.

Store up food and water.


If someone told me on Tuesday that these kinds of things would even come out in conversation today, I would not have taken that person seriously.

Ironically enough, just a few weeks ago there was a massive display next to the Starco Center where they had set up something like 500 toilets with a slogan like, "Isn't 15 years of sitting on toilets enough?" I didn't think I would seriously be considering spending quality time in my bathroom any time soon.

Blogging, Chatting, Texting During War

Bullets are flying, so I know I shouldn't be thinking about modes of communication, but I can't help myself.

The 2006 War was all about Gmail chat. My friends throughout Lebanon and in other countries chatted with me from where I was in the safety of my house. I was safe and basically knew the parameters of the battlefield. We waxed widely about myriad subjects.

During this war/battles/clashes/violence, we are using Facebook chat. Friends living one street away, a few blocks away, and on the other side of the city are chatting with me about what is going on in their neighborhoods. Things are happening everywhere, but much of the fighting is not being reported on TV - journalists cannot be everywhere at once.

I just told a friend in Gemmayze about the heavy arms I hear in Hamra, and he offered that I come stay with him. Unfortunately, I don't think there is any way I can possibly get over there. Either the government or the opposition have closed most of the roads out of Beirut. However, I could probably slip by while walking over to Gemmayze, and then I would be safe to stay with friends throughout the majority of the country who are not participating in this chaos. My friend on chat just told me the government reopened the sea road, so it won't be a problem going there.

Friends from abroad are trying to chat with me, but I'm not paying attention to them. We're trying to figure out where we will be in the next few minutes, hours, days. Will we be caught in some fighting if we don't flee to the mountains, or will we be okay here? Most of us in the neighborhood are pretty rational about what we need to do. People what is happening on television are far more hysterical.

These chatting programs are very useful for coordination; not as good as radios, but good enough for those of us who aren't coordinating attacks on neighborhoods, but merely responding the the situation. We feel a lot more impowered now that we have a greater access to information and can coordinate with one another about what to do next.


Aside: A friend from Naccache just called to tell me that "White," a posh club in downtown Beirut, opens tonight. I told him that they have probably postponed the opening, and noted everything that I've been writing here. His response was, "Really? That sounds really bad. I haven't been watching TV, but everything is normal here."



Strangely enough, iTunes randomizer just started playing Kurdish battle music. Kind of a strange soundtrack humming below the gunfire in the background. A little exhilarating, actually.

Hamra Battles Starting

About half an hour ago, I started hearing heavy artillery and light arms fire close by. Then, something landed two streets away, but I don't know what. No loud collision noise. A friend on that street looked from his balcony after feeling the vibrations, but has no idea what it was.

Another friend who lives between International College and the lighthouse (Manara) just sent me a Facebook chat message:

Dude, it's f**kin scary. The snipers across from my house just got rocket launchers.

I haven't seen any of this. I'm not going to go up on my roof.

Hamra Quiet through Conflict

Honestly, if I don't leave Hamra, I wouldn't even notice that anything is going on. Helicopters fly overhead a lot more often than usual. The sporadic gunfire heard in Hamra is not much different than that regularly heard in Hamra throughout the spring months. However, the sounds get louder and closer, and it sounds like they are firing heavier weapons, now.

Of course, the minute I try to walk towards Hariri's compound, Jumblatt's house, or the Central Bank I notice that the security barricades that are always there now fully prevent car and most pedestrian access.

It's becoming increasingly difficult to travel anywhere in the city. Hezbollah blocked the bridge linking Ras Beirut and Ashrafieh. The sea road is open, but Saifi has become a staging area for Future activists, so it is now difficult to travel through there.

Everyone is concerned about the situation, but people in Hamra are going about business as usual, except with a sizeable serving of consternation.

Of course, no one knows how long this will go on. Predictions are aplenty, but it is really up to Hezbollah and the government to come to some sort of agreement.

The Christians refuse to participate in this brigandry. The Druze are participating, but to a limited degree. The Druze neighborhoods in the middle of Beirut are obviously coordinating with the Future Movement, but the Chouf has not been mobilized to take action in Beirut.

Hamra is a shocking island of security. We have freedom of movement. Our restaurants and shops are open. Some street cafes are packed with people, except now their faces are concerned, not laughing. Very little traffic. Fewer taxi drivers.

A few places in Hamra are closed because the staff and manager live in areas effected by this violence.

It is surprisingly similar to the 2006 war when we could hear all of the violence, but were totally safe using electricity and internet.

Analysis of Hezbollah's Riots

Michael Young has a good summation of how this crisis came to be, and other implications.

He answers the, "Why is Walid Jumblatt bringing up a few of Hezbollah's abuses, now?" question I asked a few days ago: "what Jumblatt did was provoke a confrontation and, to dig up the old Soviet jargon, heighten the contradictions between Lebanese society and Hizbullah."

The pithiest line: "As the commentator Uqab Sakr put it: "Shutting down the airport is what the Israelis did in 2006; it's not what Hizbullah should be doing today.""

Young's conclusion:

The Lebanese state cannot live side by side with a Hizbullah state. This theorem is becoming more evident by the day, as the party's actions in the past three years have been, by definition, directed against the state, the government, the army and the security forces, institutions of national representation, the economy, and more fundamentally the rules of the Lebanese communal game. We've reached the point where Hizbullah, and more importantly the Shiite community, must choose. Will it persist in favoring a Hizbullah-led parallel state that will surely continue to clash with the recognized state? Or will Shiites try to find a new arrangement with their countrymen that forces Hizbullah to surrender its weapons?

A Day of Riots

I have refused to pay attention to the madness in Beirut's streets. The actions of misbehaving brigands misbehaving requires no analysis or explanation.

Snipers, burning tires, closing the airport, blocking roads, violence against the military/security services/municipal buildings, preventing free movement, scaring the unarmed population by firing rocket propelled grenades, general disregard for anyone but themselves: the ends better be glorious to justify these means, because one would be hard pressed to find someone to justify this kind of behavior, particularly in a democracy.

As for me, my day went as usual: a brisk walk to work, writing a report, reading US political news, and now I'm off to a light dinner. The only difference was that the streets were quieter, and everyone is fretting.

I'll let the elected government act on my behalf, while I continue trying to build a fruitful and creative society.

However, if they continue denying me the freedom to fly out of the country when I choose, I support turning Beirut's downtown into one massive performance place and outdoor market free of tents and political rallies.

Being aloof keeps me from getting angry. It's working... :)

Looking forward to a dangerous day

I'm heading to bed later than usual, tonight. This is because I doubt that I will need to be at work on time tomorrow.

A few opposition affiliated Lebanese unions are striking tomorrow. The last few times opposition affiliated organizations have protested it has meant attacks on those affiliated with the government and clashes with the Lebanese Army. This time, please allow me to assume that this protest is a disingenuous attempt to attack the Lebanese government and Army. I may be wrong, but actions speak louder than words (pardon the cliche).

I understand that the oppositiong is piping mad. The Lebanese Cabinet, which the opposition unconstitutionally claims is illegitimate, ruled yesterday that Hezbollah should not be allowed to have its own telephone network.

Hezbollah counters claiming that their network is needed to combat the Israelis, however the Lebanese government points out that Hezbollah is profiting significantly from their scheme. Often, when I receive calls from friends in the United States I see the country code +98, which is the country code for Iran. Often, it also has a 2 or a 31 after the +98, which indicates that the call was routed through either Tehran or Isfahan.

The United Nations reports on the Hariri assassination revealed that myriad illegal phone networks exist in Lebanon, and these phone networks were partially used in Hariri's assassination. Despite owning the cellular telephone lines, the Lebanese government (as opposed to the Syrian and Iranian governments) had little control over Lebanese telecommunications prior to 2005.

The Lebanese government does not allow the use of pre-paid international calling cards, and yet they proliferate throughout Lebanon. The same kinds of cards are sold throughout the United States, Europe, South America, Africa, and the rest of the world. According to an article I read (but the web address of which I cannot recall), the international calling card industry is incredibly profitable (ie, the hundreds of millions of dollars to billions of dollars), particularly for those providing cards for Lebanon, a country whose telephone operators are not competent enough to issue international calling cards of their own.

Allegedly, Hezbollah's telephone network is stealing funds from the Lebanese people and government. The Lebanese government owns all of the telephone networks in Lebanon, including the cellular telephone arena operated by MTC and Alfa (these companies are paid only $5 million a month to manage the networks despite the government earning significantly more from cellular revenues). Hezbollah's illegal network is direct theft from Lebanese citizens and the Lebanese government. If they merely operated a military network, the Ministry of Defense would most likely be handling the portfolio. However, they use their network for personal profit with the Lebanese state.

On top of this, Hezbollah operates a security sphere separate from that of the Lebanese government. Hezbollah justifies this by claiming that the Lebanese military, which was under the command of the Syrians for 15 years, is incompetent. It is true that Lebanese forces were not the most competent in the world prior to 2005, but the Lebanese Army proved its capability in Nahr al Bared in 2007. Over the last three years the Lebanese military and security services have increased their capabilities, yet Hezbollah refuses to cooperate with them. Not just this, but Hezbollah regularly arrests members of Lebanese Internal Security Forces without justification.

Hezbollah also chooses to subvert state security by installing its own security network throughout Lebanon. They claim that the Lebanese network is insecure because it is vulnerable to penetration by Israelis, but if the Lebanese press and security analysts know about Hezbollah's radar system and spy cameras at the airport, how secure can they be?

A Hezbollah supported has long controlled airport security, and the government has now dismissed him from his position. Either he neglected his duty and did not notice non-state entities positioning cameras at the Rafiq Hariri International Airport, or he willing cooperated with them.

The most troubling aspect of all of this is that Hezbollah and their allies choose to combat the Lebanese government on the streets, but refuse to open parliament for debate about the issues of state they were elected to represent.

Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun claims that the government has declared war on Hezbollah. Of course, this comes from the same discredited Christian leader who says that he supports Hezbollah combat facilities in Jounieh and Byblos.

Enjoy your Wednesday. I will not be enjoyable for us in Lebanon.

2008 is not 1975

Hezbollah’s actions against Israel are different than the Palestinian actions taken against Israel prior to 1975. In 1975, a non-Lebanese, non-voting faction took arms against Israel. Although Palestinians changed the way the Lebanese state operated, their intention was not to overthrow the Lebanese system. Hezbollah’s agenda, however, fully undermines the Lebanese state from within.

Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese democratic system and could easily advance its cause within parliament, yet chooses not to. When challenged, Hezbollah deputy secretary Naim Qassem ripostes with a challenge to the Lebanese system as a whole. Instead of participating in Lebanese democracy, upholding the constitution, and allowing the Christian community its equal say in Lebanese politics, the Lebanese opposition refuses to allow Christian and non-Christian lawmakers into parliament to negotiate over the Lebanese presidency.

The Hezbollah agenda not only challenges Israel, but challenges the way Lebanese interact with one another. You may believe that Hezbollah’s agenda is righteous and worthy of support, however by exacerbating sectarian differences and failing to win allies in the other Lebanese communities, they are undermining the democracy in which they live.

It is true that Hezbollah has power and weapons and that the March 14 coalition cannot forget about them and their supporters. However, it is Hezbollah who forgets about the other members of the democracy in which it exists.

The reason why March 14 has credibility is because March 14 leaders and followers believe in the Lebanese state and its institutions.

If the Lebanese civil war and 15 years of Syrian hegemony taught Lebanon’s political leadership anything, it is that Lebanese must work within the Lebanese system without revolutionary ideas about overthrowing the state. Other Lebanese factions always repulse the revolutionary faction, while foreign powers take advantage of the security vacuum.

If the March 8/ March 14 divide has taught anything, it is that Lebanon is not facing a crisis similar to the one it face in 1975. The majority of Lebanese do not believe in Gamal Abdel Nasser style Pan-Arabism. The Palestinian militant groups on Lebanese territory are not attacking Israel, and the Lebanese people fully support that Palestinian weapons remain contained within the Palestinian camps. Lebanese factions are not exploiting Cold War politics for personal gain.

Right now, the divide is between those who support a weak state and those who support a strong state. Both Hezbollah and Christian leader Michel Aoun claim that they support a strong state, but all of their actions indicate that they support a revolutionary state in which they are ultimately the benefiting factions.

The March 14 alliance is imperfect. There are significant differences between the factions. However, all of them are committed to a non-violent Lebanon in which government institutions have a monopoly over violence.

Will March 14 leaders support this agenda forever? Who knows, and who cares, as long as they are advancing the cause right now? When their positions change, my support for them will change.

Were they always like this? No, they weren’t. But they are the best option, now.

Yes, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea fought each other during the civil war and are responsible for the deaths of many citizens. Yes, it is alleged in Fawaz Traboulsi’s book that Lebanese Forces Vice President George Adwan initiated dialogue with the Israelis. Yes, Amine al-Gemayel presided over Lebanon during its worst period, and he is alleged to have been involved in dirty deals, including plots against Lebanon’s free press (ie, Talal Salman).

Yes, it is true that Future Movement party leader Saad Hariri had little political experience in Lebanon before 2005 and was known as a Saudi prince when he was studying in America.

Yes, Democratic Left party parliamentarian Elias Atallah was a Stalinist. Yes, Democratic Left member Ziad Majed worked for Joseph Samaha and Talal Salman, members of the anti-March 14 press.

Yes, Boutros Harb and Nayla Mouwad worked within the Lebanese system when Syria dominated the scene.

Yes, it is true that March 14 leaders do not practice democratic activism in the same way as democratic politicians do in the West.

However, it is a great thing that these facts are known about them, and that we can talk about them openly. What is even more incredible is that all of these flawed individuals have chosen to put aside their histories of animosity and come together to support the Lebanese state.

Unfortunately, I cannot say the same about those who fire their weapons at the Lebanese Army, and undermine the democratic system in Lebanon to which they agreed during the 2005 elections.

Weekly Lebanon Security Update: May 4-10

Status: Caution

This will be a tense week in Lebanon.

This evening, Sunday 4 May, Amal supporters fired their weapons on Lebanese citizens in Corniche al Mazraa. I'm not sure whom exactly they shot or why they did it, but I did see the massive Lebanese Army presence on the street.

Allegedly, Future Movement supporters responded by firing M16s back. I have not seen any news regarding the events. Everything I know comes from a Lebanese Army officer who was unclear of the exact occurence.

Protests will take place this week. Lebanese unions will misbehave for a number of declared reasons, which is merely cover for anti-government riots supported by the Hezbollah-led opposition. These protests could possibly get out of control, depending on how far the opposition wants to go.

Given what happened at the last protests, the Lebanese Army will be ready for unrest from armed individuals.

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and the Lebanese government are taking Hezbollah to task. Hezbollah provided Jumblatt with an excuse to launch an attack against them. Jumblatt hosted the Socialist International, and Hezbollah dishonored him by arresting an old and esteemed French delegate, Karim Pakzad, and detaining him for 5 hours for the crime of being a tourist taking photographs.
Hezbollah refused to apologize, and Jumblatt escalated his attack by presenting the media with other specific cases in which Hezbollah is breaking the law. The government was forced to respond.

The March 14 Coalition is threatening to elect a president on May 13. The opposition refuses to meet at the Lebanese parliament. Now, they refuse to attend the dialogue they proposed. March 14 recognizes that it has the strength to push back against opposition recalcitrance.



Update:

Supporting articles:

Amal clashes in Corniche al Mazraa

The opposition expresses its anger at Jumblatt and Hariri for manifesting opposition illegal activities.

Hezbollah threatens the government that it should not attempt to disconnect their illegal telephone network.

Michel Aoun just announced on television that he wants the government to be overthrown on Wednesday. The temperature is rising.

Beirut International Airport Possible Attack

The Beirut airport, currently the Rafiq Hariri International Airport, is being targetted for attack by Hezbollah, according to Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt.

I have no idea why he is publicizing this now. The countries supplying Unifil with troops and support all know that Hezbollah has its own monitoring system of the airport. Every American pilot who landed at the Beirut airport knew the exact vacant apartment from which Hezbollah radar stations tracked their approach to the airport. The technology to track aircraft is simple and easy to purchase on the legal market (let alone what you can get on the black market).

Hezbollah has outposts in Ouzai that monitor incoming aircraft. They can easily shift the location of their tracking devices, but most NATO military aircraft (ie, Unifil planes, US military planes supplying ammunitions for Nahr al Bared, and even Amro Moussa's private government sponsored aircraft) have the ability to track those who track them.

Check out the specs they are offering on private jets. You can definitely get a radar tracking system in your next GulfStream, Lear Jet, or personal Boeing or Airbus. I'm sure Saad Hariri, Issam Fares, and Najib Miqati have them.

In Beirut, you don't even need radar to track aircraft. From any tall building, the naked eye is a decent instrument to use to track incoming aircraft into the airport. Much more can be done the higher up in the mountains one goes. Any radical with a surface to air missile can set up base on the Rmleit al Bayda beach, or any seaside tall building, and take potshots at incoming planes. Send a monitor to Cyprus, infiltrate Cypriot government monitoring systems, or install your own system in the generally ungoverned Turkish Cypriot area and you'll have even better equipment with which to monitor aircraft in the Eastern Mediterranean.

One doesn't even need a missile to take down aircraft flying into Beirut. The Serbs took down a US F-117 Nighthawk stealth plane with normal technology in 1999. Military analysts at the time claimed automatic weapons fired in the right direction might have contributed to taking down the aircraft; thus sophisticated missile weaponry was not needed.

The Israelis know this and use countermeasures. During the 2006 war, I do not recall that Israeli aircraft - planes and helicopters - were shot down, despite lots of random gunfire and anti-aircraft weaponry pointed in their direction. During that war, it was visible to the naked eye in Beirut that Israeli helicopters flew up the coast and attacked Dahieh without meaningful retaliation.

If Hezbollah or others decide to attack international aircraft, that is a tremendous escalation. However, the risk is always there.

Why publicize it, now? Is a March 14 politician or foreign personality being targetted? Does Jumblatt want the government to take further action against Hezbollah prior to the presidential dialogues? Perhaps he just wants everyone to be mindful that they are taking risks whenever they fly in and out of the country?