Apologies for not blogging over the past few weeks. After the conflict, I needed a break.
As predicted, the Doha Agreement merely ended the chaos in Beirut, elected President Michel Sleiman, and provided tourists and Lebanese abroad with the semblance of stability.
Violence continues to break out across Lebanon. Tripoli is the most recent site of full-scale sectarian, political violence.
Violence rages in Palestinians camps. As usual, the Lebanese media inflates rumors and scares the Lebanese population into believing the next Nahr al Bared is upon us.
Sectarianism is the highest I have ever seen it. Many older residents of Beirut believe the discord between Lebanese sects is the greatest they have ever seen in their lifetimes. Of course, the Lebanese media continues to fan sectarian flames.
For a time after Doha, it seemed that Hezbollah and Amal would make sure that a new Lebanese government would come together quickly. However, they have since decided that the most politically expedient action for them is to allow MP Michel Aoun to block any government formation. This accomplishes two things:
1) Prime Minister-designate Fouad Siniora and the March 14 Coalition is undermined and once again their political power is in the balance.
2) President Michel Sleiman is being undermined and shown that he better not make any decisions the opposition dislikes. Right now, the opposition is testing to see if Sleiman will bend/break when pressured. Fortunately for Sleiman, he has powerful allies in March 14. Unfortunate for Sleiman, his main ally and the chief architect of his election, Michel el-Murr, is being targeted by Hezbollah, Amal, and Michel Aoun for his March 14 biases, and for his political break with Aoun's political bloc.
Once again, the opposition shifts the debate time and again away from compromise. When March 14 leaders concede a point to the opposition, they instantly demand something else. Take for instance this effort to try and tie the formation of the new government to negotiations over the electoral law, negotiations which will be trying and drawn out.
The Icing on the Cake
Hezbollah now contends that it has no interest in ever giving up its weapons, regardless of a return of all Lebanese prisoners in Israel and Israel conceding to the Syrian invented claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese.
Even worse, Hezbollah is preventing full, peaceful negotiations with Israel over myriad issues, even though both Hezbollah and Syria are negotiating with the Israelis right now.
Negotiations with Israel over the southern border are extremely important. Areas like the Shebaa Farms and the village of al-Ghajar are neither completely Lebanese or Syrian territory. As the late Syrian President Hafez al Assad noted, the border between Lebanon and the Syrian Golan was never defined. Al-Ghajar, literally, lies on both sides of the border. Technically, part of the village is Lebanese, but the residents are primarily Allawi and publicly announce that they consider themselves Syrian.
Syria is currently negotiating over the Golan, which is most likely why they refuse to sign any legal documents to support their claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese. This is also why Syria's Lebanese allies refuse to allow direct negotiations between Lebanon and Syria. Syria wants to be in charge of all negotiations, and a settlement between Lebanon and Israel removes more than one of Syria's negotiating cards.
Just as Syria refuses to demarcate the eastern border between Lebanon and Syria, if the Golan is returned to them, they will most likely use that territory to their advantage.
Syria wants to make sure that there will be no peace between Lebanon and Israel before Syria is able to extract everything they want out of the Israelis, and probably also extract everything they want out of the international community (which definitely includes diminishing Lebanese sovereignty in favor of Syrian hegemony).
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Monday, June 09, 2008
UEFA Cup and Beirut Politics
The Italians wore blue. The Dutch wore Orange. The referees wore yellow.
But what some viewers of the UEFA Cup in Beirut saw on Monday 9 June was Lebanese politics.
"Ahhh, the Aounniye are beating Mustaqbal," said one observer noting that the Dutch team, wearing the colors of Lebanese Christian opposition figure Michel Aoun, scored two goals in the first half while the Italians scored none, despite wearing blue uniforms, the color of Saad al Hariri's Future (Mustaqbal) Movement.
Another woman responded, "What do you expect when Hezbollah sets the rules." Hezbollah's color is yellow, and the party has a "Memorandum of Understanding" with Michel Aoun.
The current fury over football reminds locals that sport is as much of a Lebanese passion as politics. Beirut's downtown came alive in 2004 when the Greeks won the European football competition. In June 2006 Beirut's streets turned to utter chaos with World Cup fever.
One longtime Beirut residing Dutch observer walking through Beirut's downtown noted, "It's as if everything that happened between the end of the World Cup 2006 and the UEFA Cup 2008 did not take place. It's as if nothing happened."
For all the revelry surrounding President Sleiman's election and the first conflict free summer, there are still violent acts occuring throughout Lebanon. Sunday night, a battle was fought between Hezbollah supporters and Future supporters in the Bekaa. A skirmish also took place in the Chouf mountains between rival Druze factions.
The security situation has not improved. The Palestinian camps are entirely unregulated, and strange stories routinely crop up about unknown individuals living in the camps becoming involved in violent activities.
But what some viewers of the UEFA Cup in Beirut saw on Monday 9 June was Lebanese politics.
"Ahhh, the Aounniye are beating Mustaqbal," said one observer noting that the Dutch team, wearing the colors of Lebanese Christian opposition figure Michel Aoun, scored two goals in the first half while the Italians scored none, despite wearing blue uniforms, the color of Saad al Hariri's Future (Mustaqbal) Movement.
Another woman responded, "What do you expect when Hezbollah sets the rules." Hezbollah's color is yellow, and the party has a "Memorandum of Understanding" with Michel Aoun.
The current fury over football reminds locals that sport is as much of a Lebanese passion as politics. Beirut's downtown came alive in 2004 when the Greeks won the European football competition. In June 2006 Beirut's streets turned to utter chaos with World Cup fever.
One longtime Beirut residing Dutch observer walking through Beirut's downtown noted, "It's as if everything that happened between the end of the World Cup 2006 and the UEFA Cup 2008 did not take place. It's as if nothing happened."
For all the revelry surrounding President Sleiman's election and the first conflict free summer, there are still violent acts occuring throughout Lebanon. Sunday night, a battle was fought between Hezbollah supporters and Future supporters in the Bekaa. A skirmish also took place in the Chouf mountains between rival Druze factions.
The security situation has not improved. The Palestinian camps are entirely unregulated, and strange stories routinely crop up about unknown individuals living in the camps becoming involved in violent activities.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Aoun Blocking Cabinet Formation: His Last Stand?
According to members of the Amal Movement, Michel Aoun is needlessly blocking the creation of a new Lebanese cabinet. Amal officially denied these claims today, but party activists claim what they told me yesterday is true.
Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun intentionally requested particular ministries in Prime Minister Siniora's government to block the formation of the cabinet. Aoun has long been interested in the Justice Ministry, so it was immediately suspicious to Siniora's staff and Future Movement members that Aoun requested the ministries of Finance, Public Works, Health, Labor, and one other (possibly agriculture?).
These ministries are the few that have publicly been spoken for. Current Finance Minister Jihad Azour strongly requested that he continue in the job. He's done a phenomenal job, and Siniora and Amal thought that there is no reason he should not continue. Tripoli MP Muhammad Safadi has made it known that he is interested in the Public Works ministry, which he presided over in the previous government. The most skilled and reputable Amal minister in the previous government Khalifeh, presided over the Ministry of Health and Amal publicly made it know that the party wants him to continue the excellent job he did previously. The Ministry of Labor always goes to an extreme pro-Syrian figure.
According to Future and Amal members, Aoun is disingenuously engaging in the formation of the cabinet. He had no interest in electing Michel Sleiman president. He did not want Siniora to return as prime minister, and he knows that his political party and support will forever be transformed if the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) takes part in the government.
According to Amal sources, Aoun is doing this because he is taking orders from Syria, which is furious that it no longer has a stranglehold on Lebanon. My take is different:
First, Aoun is the sole leader of the FPM. According to the press, the FPM is divided between followers of Aoun and idealistic Christian technocrats who do not like the direction sectarian, feudal Lebanon is headed. Recently, party divisions came to light during the FPM internal elections, which were postponed.
Second, the FPM is not alloted 5 ministries in the next government. Hezbollah originally insinuated that it would give Aoun its share of seats in the next government, but then reversed their decision.
Had Aoun been elected president, he would have had tremendous power. He could have solidified his domination over the FPM and begun digging further into the support bases of other Christian leaders. He would have been able to appoint all of the members of his family and inner circle to well-paying positions (ministries, advisers, generals, ambassadors), but also have plenty of room to provide positions to supporters from the other side of the party.
Now, Aoun's choices are limited. He was not allocated enough ministries to do what he wants to do, which is:
a) appoint his relatives, like Gebran Bassil, as ministers;
b) appoint two opposing FPM leaders from the non-inner circle camp to ministries and bait them to feud with one another, thus maintaining Aoun's position as undeniable party leader, moderator of internal party conflicts, and also preventing any other FPM leader from using his ministry/power base to begin rising in the party and becoming a leader in his own right;
c) appoint non-Christian ministers to advance Aoun's secular, non-sectarian credentials;
d) minimize the influence of Hariri, Siniora, Jumblatt, Geagea, and Gemayel and steal press time away from, while also coming closer to dictating the terms of the new cabinet;
e) to further expand Aoun's and the FPM's base throughout all of Lebanon, including all sects and regions. If Aoun could do this, he would simultaneous become i) the only truly national Lebanese leader, thus the most powerful politician in Lebanon, ii) the undeniable Christian leader, including in Koura and Zahle which are still ruled by allies, iii) the unopposed leader of the FPM, iv) in a position to challenge the constitutionality of Sleiman's election and call for a new election, v) fully advance his own agenda, and become the savior of Lebanon.
It's a nice dream. However, there is no room to compromise in Aoun's vision. He wants power to implement his dream. FPMers defend Aoun because they believe in his dream. March 14ers cannot get beyond Aoun's tactics, and for obvious reasons like intentionally blocking the formation of a new cabinet, undermining negotiations, destroying opportunities for compromise and unity, and not requesting what he really wants, all while claiming moral superiority.
In the cabinet negotiations, Aoun probably doesn't have much of a plan. His advisers are probably competing amongst themselves.
Aoun cannot honestly negotiate, because specific ministries are not what he wants. He wants it all, and asking for ministries others have already spoken for is only a stalling device. He doesn't really want the ministries of Finance, Justice, or Foreign Affairs. What use to him are ministries like Labor, Agriculture, Environment, and Youth & Sports, if every March 14 journalist in Lebanon is waiting to catch the FPM in instances of government graft. His cabinet seats won't even be enough to delay a vote, let alone block anything. He will become just like everyone else.
The Amal people claim Aoun is targeting Future for obvious reasons, but also targeting them because Aoun is angry about the Doha negotiations in which Amal leader and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih al-Berri forced Aoun's hand, and allegedly disrespected the FPM leader. Berri emerged as the leader of Lebanon after the Doha round to a greater extent even than Hezbollah.
Aoun has been parochialized. He no longer has the support powerful Metn MP Michel el-Murr, and is watching President Sleiman steal away Aoun's multi-sectarian support in the military, in Jbeil, and in the Christian community at large. During the next parliamentary elections under the new electoral law, Aoun will undoubtedly lose seats to the local leaders he empowered in 2005, like Murr, Skaff, and Franjieh, lose blocs who supported him in 2005 like Nemattallah Abi Nasr's bloc in Kesrouwan, lose the entire kada of Jbeil to President Sleiman, and watch former loyalists peel off and join with more powerful camps.
Not only this, but Aoun is too old and too senile to envision many more years of dominant power and clout. The FPM cabinet ministers will form their own bases of support separate from Aoun. The TV cameras will flock to them before making the trek to Rabieh. Aoun's own OTV is failing so miserably that it might not be on the air for long if it continues in the same way, and if it changes, Aoun probably won't have nearly as much influence over it.
Aoun thinks of himself too highly to take a minor position like that of a minister. He was commander of the Army, for crying out loud! He has more support than Amine Gemayel or Michel Murr. Gebran Bassil should be his Pierre Gemayel or Elias Murr, while he gives commands from above and accepts visits from ambassadors and foreign dignitaries.
This is a last minute effort to appear powerful and influential, but no one is playing Aoun's games any more. Amal and Hezbollah used Aoun when they needed a Christian spokesman and Christian cover to do Syria's bidding. Now, they no longer need him and are just as irritated at his antics as March 14 figures have been for years.
Aoun has a dream, but he has no idea about how to get there. In the meantime, he is creating nightmares for his countrymen, but he might not even be able to do this for long.
Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun intentionally requested particular ministries in Prime Minister Siniora's government to block the formation of the cabinet. Aoun has long been interested in the Justice Ministry, so it was immediately suspicious to Siniora's staff and Future Movement members that Aoun requested the ministries of Finance, Public Works, Health, Labor, and one other (possibly agriculture?).
These ministries are the few that have publicly been spoken for. Current Finance Minister Jihad Azour strongly requested that he continue in the job. He's done a phenomenal job, and Siniora and Amal thought that there is no reason he should not continue. Tripoli MP Muhammad Safadi has made it known that he is interested in the Public Works ministry, which he presided over in the previous government. The most skilled and reputable Amal minister in the previous government Khalifeh, presided over the Ministry of Health and Amal publicly made it know that the party wants him to continue the excellent job he did previously. The Ministry of Labor always goes to an extreme pro-Syrian figure.
According to Future and Amal members, Aoun is disingenuously engaging in the formation of the cabinet. He had no interest in electing Michel Sleiman president. He did not want Siniora to return as prime minister, and he knows that his political party and support will forever be transformed if the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) takes part in the government.
According to Amal sources, Aoun is doing this because he is taking orders from Syria, which is furious that it no longer has a stranglehold on Lebanon. My take is different:
First, Aoun is the sole leader of the FPM. According to the press, the FPM is divided between followers of Aoun and idealistic Christian technocrats who do not like the direction sectarian, feudal Lebanon is headed. Recently, party divisions came to light during the FPM internal elections, which were postponed.
Second, the FPM is not alloted 5 ministries in the next government. Hezbollah originally insinuated that it would give Aoun its share of seats in the next government, but then reversed their decision.
Had Aoun been elected president, he would have had tremendous power. He could have solidified his domination over the FPM and begun digging further into the support bases of other Christian leaders. He would have been able to appoint all of the members of his family and inner circle to well-paying positions (ministries, advisers, generals, ambassadors), but also have plenty of room to provide positions to supporters from the other side of the party.
Now, Aoun's choices are limited. He was not allocated enough ministries to do what he wants to do, which is:
a) appoint his relatives, like Gebran Bassil, as ministers;
b) appoint two opposing FPM leaders from the non-inner circle camp to ministries and bait them to feud with one another, thus maintaining Aoun's position as undeniable party leader, moderator of internal party conflicts, and also preventing any other FPM leader from using his ministry/power base to begin rising in the party and becoming a leader in his own right;
c) appoint non-Christian ministers to advance Aoun's secular, non-sectarian credentials;
d) minimize the influence of Hariri, Siniora, Jumblatt, Geagea, and Gemayel and steal press time away from, while also coming closer to dictating the terms of the new cabinet;
e) to further expand Aoun's and the FPM's base throughout all of Lebanon, including all sects and regions. If Aoun could do this, he would simultaneous become i) the only truly national Lebanese leader, thus the most powerful politician in Lebanon, ii) the undeniable Christian leader, including in Koura and Zahle which are still ruled by allies, iii) the unopposed leader of the FPM, iv) in a position to challenge the constitutionality of Sleiman's election and call for a new election, v) fully advance his own agenda, and become the savior of Lebanon.
It's a nice dream. However, there is no room to compromise in Aoun's vision. He wants power to implement his dream. FPMers defend Aoun because they believe in his dream. March 14ers cannot get beyond Aoun's tactics, and for obvious reasons like intentionally blocking the formation of a new cabinet, undermining negotiations, destroying opportunities for compromise and unity, and not requesting what he really wants, all while claiming moral superiority.
In the cabinet negotiations, Aoun probably doesn't have much of a plan. His advisers are probably competing amongst themselves.
Aoun cannot honestly negotiate, because specific ministries are not what he wants. He wants it all, and asking for ministries others have already spoken for is only a stalling device. He doesn't really want the ministries of Finance, Justice, or Foreign Affairs. What use to him are ministries like Labor, Agriculture, Environment, and Youth & Sports, if every March 14 journalist in Lebanon is waiting to catch the FPM in instances of government graft. His cabinet seats won't even be enough to delay a vote, let alone block anything. He will become just like everyone else.
The Amal people claim Aoun is targeting Future for obvious reasons, but also targeting them because Aoun is angry about the Doha negotiations in which Amal leader and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih al-Berri forced Aoun's hand, and allegedly disrespected the FPM leader. Berri emerged as the leader of Lebanon after the Doha round to a greater extent even than Hezbollah.
Aoun has been parochialized. He no longer has the support powerful Metn MP Michel el-Murr, and is watching President Sleiman steal away Aoun's multi-sectarian support in the military, in Jbeil, and in the Christian community at large. During the next parliamentary elections under the new electoral law, Aoun will undoubtedly lose seats to the local leaders he empowered in 2005, like Murr, Skaff, and Franjieh, lose blocs who supported him in 2005 like Nemattallah Abi Nasr's bloc in Kesrouwan, lose the entire kada of Jbeil to President Sleiman, and watch former loyalists peel off and join with more powerful camps.
Not only this, but Aoun is too old and too senile to envision many more years of dominant power and clout. The FPM cabinet ministers will form their own bases of support separate from Aoun. The TV cameras will flock to them before making the trek to Rabieh. Aoun's own OTV is failing so miserably that it might not be on the air for long if it continues in the same way, and if it changes, Aoun probably won't have nearly as much influence over it.
Aoun thinks of himself too highly to take a minor position like that of a minister. He was commander of the Army, for crying out loud! He has more support than Amine Gemayel or Michel Murr. Gebran Bassil should be his Pierre Gemayel or Elias Murr, while he gives commands from above and accepts visits from ambassadors and foreign dignitaries.
This is a last minute effort to appear powerful and influential, but no one is playing Aoun's games any more. Amal and Hezbollah used Aoun when they needed a Christian spokesman and Christian cover to do Syria's bidding. Now, they no longer need him and are just as irritated at his antics as March 14 figures have been for years.
Aoun has a dream, but he has no idea about how to get there. In the meantime, he is creating nightmares for his countrymen, but he might not even be able to do this for long.
Monday, June 02, 2008
A Modest Proposal: Bringing Question Time to Lebanon
Nearly all parties in
A great way to prove to the Lebanese people that the Lebanese government is working on their behalf would be to institute the parliamentary mechanism of Question Time.
In
To make the Lebanese government more transparent and appear as if it is working on behalf of the electorate, parliamentarians should air their grievances to the prime minister and his cabinet publicly.
Finance Minister Jihad Azour does a phenomenal job. His ministry is the most transparent and is persuading other ministries to follow the same path. Yet, most Lebanese citizens believe that the Finance Ministry is troubled, steals money, and fails to work in the interests of Lebanese citizens. Opponents of Azour nominate buffoons to serve in the post Azour commands brilliantly. Question time will give the public the opportunity to hear Azour’s opponents attack him, and allow Azour to explain that he is doing an excellent job.
Ministers improperly executing their jobs will most likely be motivated to take a more active role in daily ministerial operations. Individuals unqualified to lead a cabinet post might be dissuaded from hubristically demanding a highly complex and important portfolio.
Hopefully, technocrats of all sects and stripes would be the beneficiaries of this mechanism.
Jihad, Jihadi, Jihadist...
The New York Times has an interesting article by Peter W. Singer and Elina Noor entitled, "What Do You Call a Terror(Jihad)ist?"
They discuss the value of using the term jihadist, and finally decide that terrorist is a better description.
They argue:
They discuss the value of using the term jihadist, and finally decide that terrorist is a better description.
They argue:
IMAGINE if Franklin D. Roosevelt had taken to calling Adolf Hitler the “leader of the National Socialist Aryan patriots” or dubbed Japanese soldiers fighting in World War II as the “defenders of Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.”
...First, to call a terrorist a “jihadist” or “jihadi” effectively puts any campaign against terrorism into the framework of an existential battle between the West and Islam. This feeds into the worldview propagated by Al Qaeda. It also serves to isolate the tens of millions of Muslims who condemn the violence that has been perpetrated in the name of Islam.
Second, these words locate the ideological battle exactly where the extremists want it to be. The terms of discussion are no longer about the murder of innocents in terrorist acts; they are about theology.
Third, when American leaders use this language it sends a confusing message to the Muslim world, showing ignorance on basic issues and possibly even raising doubts about American motives. Why, after all, would we call our enemy a “holy warrior”?
If we want to say what we mean, what terms better describe Qaeda members and other violent extremists? “Muharib” or the more colloquial “hirabi” or “hirabist” would be good places to start. “Hirabah,” the base word, is a term for barbarism or piracy. Unlike “jihad,” which grants honor, “hirabah” brings condemnation; it involves unlawful violence and disorder.
Of course, it’s probably best not to engage in these nuances at all. Which is why American leaders would do best to call terrorists by their rightful name: “terrorists.” The label may seem passé, but terrorism is an internationally recognized word for an internationally recognized crime. If we want to win a war of words, we would do well to choose the ones we use with greater care.
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