Lebanese Political Journal

Ethiopian Airlines Crash, Mabhouh Assassination Related

2010-02-19T14:28:00.000-08:00

There is a common element between the Ethiopian Airlines crash off the coast of Beirut and Mahmoud al Mabhouh’s assassination in Dubai. In both cases evidence is publicly revealed offering proof of what actually occurred.

As Joshua Hersh notes, Lebanese media and politicians responded to the Ethiopian Airlines disaster with usual hysteria, accusations, and wild speculation. The retrieval of the airliner black boxes from the ocean floor and the analysis of the data now puts to rest many of the more ludicrous theories about why the plane crashed shortly after takeoff.

Unlike most major crimes and disasters in Lebanon, with regard to the Ethiopian Airlines crash, the public can put aside the usual political squabbling and place their trust in black box technology and investigative competence.

As Michael Young argues, the Lebanese state must be capable of investigating crises. The Lebanese government called upon a team of international investigators who succeeded in finding the black boxes, wreckage, and remains in stormy waters. However, the Lebanese government should have the competence and capacity to do this itself, thus allowing citizens to trust their government and justifying the taxes spent on the public bureaucracy.

Mabhouh’s Assassination: A Wake Up Call for Lebanese

2010-02-19T12:45:00.000-08:00

The investigation of the assassination of Mahmoud al Mabhouh proves the competence and capabilities of the Dubai and Emirati governments. Watch the video. The Dubai authorities, supported by ordinary security cameras and the best image tracking software available, weaved together the sophisticated plot.

Dubai’s successful investigation shows what rule of law, economic and technical advancement, and training in modern police work can do for an Arab country.

For the first time in recent memory, the perpetrator’s of an assassination in an Arab country are caught on camera; their conspiracy revealed. The Dubai government did not try to cover up the crime or broker a secret political deal with the perpetrators. The Dubai authorities provided the evidence to the public and the international community, building ever more confidence in Dubai’s sophisticated law enforcement capabilities.

Hopefully, this investigation will caution any organization or government against executing shadowy business and intelligence deals in Arab countries. If other Arab countries institute similar measures to Dubai, the days of cavalierly taking advantage of Arab governmental incompetence will be nearly over.

Dubai’s successful investigation brings me joy, but also a bit of anger. For if former Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri could have executed his plan for the modernization of Lebanon, the Lebanese government might have been able to track down his killers.

The Lebanese wartime law enforcement vacuum continued through the Syrian and post-Syrian eras. Since 2005, Lebanese government institutions are slowly becoming more competent and technocratic. However, the pace is taking too long, and there is too much infighting between political camps worried that the other side will use the new governmental power and authority to expose, humiliate, and weaken their foes.

In the midst of wrangling over control of General Security and creating new intelligence units within the Internal Security Forces, the Lebanese people suffer daily humiliation and injustice. Crimes are never solved. Accusations echo through the media, and heighten tensions.

Meanwhile, foreign countries infringe on Lebanese sovereignty, and use the country as an intelligence and assassination playground.

The United Arab Emirates and the Emirate of Dubai have provided the Arab world with an excellent law enforcement example.

Daily Star Open!

2009-02-07T12:24:00.001-08:00

I don't have any details, but the Daily Star is back open. Hopefully, they will reform quickly and be better than ever.

Daily Star Stops Publishing

2009-01-22T13:21:00.000-08:00

As long-time readers know, I am highly critical of the Daily Star, Lebanon's English-language daily newspaper.

The Star never seemed interested in addressing any of the major problems it faced. The management would come up with a quick-fix solution, which did nothing to solve any problems, and generally added more burden to the troubled paper.

It is with sadness, however, that I watch the Daily Star's troubles plunge it into bankruptcy and a cessation of publishing.

Despite its flaws, the Star provided a needed service. The dire need for a competent English-language paper was the main reason I so criticized the Star. No other Lebanese publication provides nearly as much to English-language audiences.

NOW Lebanon, Naharnet, and Ya Libnan are not newspapers.

NOW Lebanon does little reporting, and rarely follows up on a story. It does not break news (an exclusive interview does not count as breaking news). There is no diversity in the opinions found in NOW's pages, and there is far less content than that provided in the Star. Contrarily, Michael Young did a phenomenal job editing the Daily Star's opinions page. Diverse opinions were ubiquitous, and interesting articles originally published in other publications found their way to Lebanese audiences.

NOW provides interesting analysis long after an event occurs, but rarely has reporters covering beats and reporting from scenes of importance. Almost all of their stories can be written from the safe confines of an office, and are thus more analytical than journalistic.

NOW Extra provides a unique service, but is not comparable to the Daily Star's culture page, which regularly provided useful information and commentary.

NOW does not want to be a newspaper. It does not profit from its publication, and is arguing on behalf of a specific agenda, as noted by the "AGENDA" heading under which many articles appear on the main page.

NOW could be much better than it is, but it does not want to be a newspaper, and definitely not a "paper of record."

Naharnet provides a newswire service on events, but like all wire services, leaves readers with more questions about what happened and why. There is no analysis.

Ya Libnan survives by pilfering newspapers, magazines, and blogs of their content and repackaging it. It depends on the activities of other publications.

I'm sad to see you go, Daily Star. :(

Arabs and Israel

2009-01-05T22:58:00.000-08:00

Robert Kaplan has an interesting article about Israel, Gaza, and Iran in the Atlantic. He argues:

Israel won its audacious military reputation during the age of Arab state armies. Because Arabs never believed in their own secular states, their armies were never very good in the first place, and thus Israel had no trouble impressing the world in its wars against them. But at the sub-state level of movements like Hamas or Hezbollah, the Arabs very much believe in their cause, and thus Israel has a real challenge on its hands.

He provocatively contends:

Iran has built its dominion on a combination of anti-western ideas and the dynamic wiliness of its intelligence operations (which, in turn, are a reflection of a civilization more developed and urbanized than that of the Arabs). Iran’s message of anti-Semitism and hatred toward the United States plays well across sectarian lines in the Sunni Arab world, which identifies its own fatigued, uninspiring, and detested rulers with the side of the U.S. and Israel. Sunni Arabs hate their own rulers, but despairing of changing their own lot, they channel that hatred toward us: thus the potency of the Iranian message. A nuclear weapon will only supply Iran with more prestige among the Arab lumpen faithful.

...

And yet the one place where Moslems are cynical about Iran is in Iran itself, where the regime relies on a narrow base of support amid a state that (despite its vast oil reserves) is in economic shambles. Thus, the supreme irony of the Middle East is that the place where anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism are least potent is in the Iranian heartland.

Also, see Max Boot's opinion piece about Gaza in the Wall Street Journal. He contends that Israel, being a liberal democracy, cannot crush its opponents, like the Russians, Syrians, and Burmese do. It simultaneously cannot tolerate attacks on its citizens from Gaza. Thus, the Israelis must fight a long-term war of attrition. Victory is not a possibility in the current calculus. Retaliatory measures will continue for a long time.

Proportionality in War: Israel and Gaza

2008-12-30T22:37:00.001-08:00

Shmuel Rosner has an interesting article discussing proportionality in war, and Israel's objectives in Gaza.

Rosner contends, "No reasonable, moderately compassionate human being can ignore the suffering of Gazans under Israeli attacks. But such is the tricky nature of modern warfare: How do we measure proportionality without reducing the concept to an impossibly pedantic tit-for-tat?"

The trickiness involved in proportionality comes from the original 1907 Hague Convention language: "a state is legally allowed to unilaterally defend itself and right a wrong provided the response is proportional to the injury suffered. The response must also be immediate and necessary, refrain from targeting civilians, and require only enough force to reinstate the status quo ante."

An Aside
When thinking about proportionality, I am always reminded of the Vietnam War. Defense Secretary McNamara and General Westmoreland's strategy against the North Vietnamese Army led to escalating violence, instead of ending the conflict. Nixon's Operations Linebacker I and II hit the North Vietnamese with overwhelming force, which allowed for the US to pull out.

The conflict ended with US failure, and left the Vietnamese to fight regional wars against Cambodia and China.

Parallels to Israel and Gaza? Not really.

Fisk On Gaza

2008-12-29T00:26:00.000-08:00

Robert Fisk's column about Israel's attacks on Gaza are rather balanced and perceptive.

Here's a taste:

We hear the usual Israeli line. General Yaakov Amidror, the former head of the Israeli army's "research and assessment division" announced that "no country in the world would allow its citizens to be made the target of rocket attacks without taking vigorous steps to defend them". Quite so. But when the IRA were firing mortars over the border into Northern Ireland, when their guerrillas were crossing from the Republic to attack police stations and Protestants, did Britain unleash the RAF on the Irish Republic? Did the RAF bomb churches and tankers and police stations and zap 300 civilians to teach the Irish a lesson? No, it did not. Because the world would have seen it as criminal behaviour. We didn't want to lower ourselves to the IRA's level.
Yes, Israel deserves security. But these bloodbaths will not bring it. Not since 1948 have air raids protected Israel. Israel has bombed Lebanon thousands of times since 1975 and not one has eliminated "terrorism". So what was the reaction last night? The Israelis threaten ground attacks. Hamas waits for another battle. Our Western politicians crouch in their funk holes. And somewhere to the east – in a cave? a basement? on a mountainside? – a well-known man in a turban smiles.

Read the whole thing.

Synagogue Update

2008-11-20T16:24:00.001-08:00

Supposedly, the Lebanese Jewish community has raised funds to restore the synagogue, but the global financial crisis has prevented immediate restoration. See the whole article.

Apologies for not posting the pictures, yet... :(

Beirut Synagogue

2008-09-18T17:49:00.000-07:00

I broke into the Beirut synagogue.

It wasn't hard. The gate has a lock on it, but it was knocked down, and the security guards no longer patrol the place as vigilantly. The Ottoman era buildings around the synagogue have been destroyed, and the edifice poses no security risk to the Prime Minister's Grand Serail or Future Movement leader Saad Hariri's future residence.

My friend and I climbed over the trees growing in the courtyard and walked into the main hall, decorated with 6-point stars. The front of the synagogue was desecrated. The holy documents were intentionally removed, but the other ornamental structures were destroyed.

Twenty foot tall trees grow where pews should be. The support beams of the roof still exist, but the tiles are destroyed. The staircase to the upper women's section remains intact.

Hebrew graffiti adorns the walls. I don't know what it says, but I assume Jews from abroad journeyed in and wrote on both the side walls and the front area where the arc is supposed to reside.

Jews are not the only group to have a downtown religious establishment remain in shambles. Two Greek Catholic churches lie in disarray in Beirut's downtown. One of them is in stumbling distance of the parliament, and the other is closer to the Parliament building than the synagogue.

However, the Greek Catholic community has fully operable churches in Beirut and is a functioning sect in Lebanon's confessional democracy.

Sadly, Jews remain in hiding in Lebanon.

Media reports about Beirut's synagogue, such as this, are heartening. Unfortunately, I doubt that much action will be taken to restore the synagogue in the coming months.

M14 Did Not Assassinate Aridi

2008-09-14T16:35:00.000-07:00

Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance spokespeople suggest that forces opposed to them assassinated Druze March 8 member Saleh Aridi.

They argue that Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is moving away from his anti-Hezbollah allies, and is thus being sent a message not to ally with Hezbollah. It is suggested - and sometimes openly claimed - that the Saudi-backed March 14 coalition is responsible for assassinating Aridi.

Members of Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) have argued that Israel assassinated Aridi; thus, blaming the Arab world's perpetual rhetorical enemy instead of provoking a confrontation with either the March 8 or 14 coalition.

It is unlikely that M14 assassinated Aridi because:

1. M14 members know Jumblatt. This is the leader whose political decisions did not shift when a key PSP member, parliamentarian, policy maker, and negotiator, Marwan Hamade, was nearly assassinated in 2004. Jumblatt did not reverse his political decision. He merely stopped voicing it as loudly, while working ever harder with Rafiq Hariri to win the 2005 parliamentary elections and oust the Syrians.

2. Assassinations and threats to his life did not stop Jumblatt from advocating his positions over the last three years. Assassinations of March 14 coalition members only amplified and intensified Jumblatt's words.

3. Jumblatt refused to bow to Hezbollah's demands, even when his house in Clemenceau was under attack during the May events. Why would he be afraid of an assassination targeting someone who, until May, was a hated political opponent?

4. M14 generally uses money to buy allies (for example, quieting the Jund al-Sham conflicts with Saida residents, and also the "freezing" of the Salafist memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah). Aridi would not be the first person on M14's assassination list if it decided to take up that heinous policy.

5. The kind of bomb used to assassinate Aridi is similar to the kind used to assassinate Georges Hawi, and used in the failed assassination attempt against May Chidiac.

This fifth point is of particular significance. In 2005, press reports claimed that Georges Hawi was assassinated because he was acting as an emissary between Jumblatt and the Assad regime. This would suggest that Hawi's assassination was a clear message to Jumblatt that the Syrians have no interest in reconciliation with him.

LDP leader Talal Arslan was recently in Syria meeting with Assad at the Syrian presidential palace. Arslan and Jumblatt have reconciled their differences and are isolating some of Syria's closest Druze allies, like Wiam Wahhab, in preparation for the 2009 elections.

Recall that the Hamade assassination attempt occurred after the 2004 presidential elections, but before the 2005 parliamentary elections. The Aridi assassination occurred after the 2008 presidential elections, and before the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Something else to consider is the upcoming national dialogue, during which Lebanese parties will discuss critical issues about defense policy, national unity, and the 2009 electoral law. During the 2006 national dialogue, Jumblatt was the most anti-Hezbollah leader. His position has moderated since then, but Jumblatt is still no ally of Hezbollah or the Syrian regime. Arslan is.

Given that Jumblatt is significantly more powerful than Arslan - the junior member of this alliance, Syria is losing an ally while another close ally (Wahhab) is entirely isolated. The regime gains nothing from this alliance, but can preserve some influence in the Druze community if it prevents Arslan from moving closer to Jumblatt.

Arslan knows that he will lose support and credibility in his community if he does not work in coordination with Jumblatt, but will also lose his independence from Jumblatt if Syria removes its support. The Aridi assassination was most likely a message to Arslan that support might not be the only things the Syrians take away from him.

Arslan is allied with Syria's worst enemy. Secondly, he is the first influential pro-Syrian figure to attempt an independent political move.

These are all indications suggesting that the individuals who began assassinating anti-Syrian Lebanese leaders beginning in 2004 could possibly also be responsible for Aridi's assassination.

Nothing will completely exonerate the March 14 coalition in the opposition press. Try proving a negative. However, nothing suggests that M14 had anything to do with it.

Russia Supports Jordan More than Syria?

2008-09-14T16:29:00.000-07:00

Tony Badran argues that the relationship between the Syrian regime and Russia might not be as strong that President Assad insinuates.

Badran argues:

Far less media attention was given to another visitor to Russia at around the same time that Assad arrived there: Jordan's King Abdullah. The king's visit was focused mainly on military and technical cooperation. Jordan has developed a number of joint military ventures with the Russians in recent years.
A few days later Premier Vladimir Putin - who had met with King Abdullah but not with Assad - also received Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan. The Saudis began discussing arms deals with the Russians last year, when Putin made his historic visit to the kingdom when he was still president. Meanwhile, Saudi-Syrian relations have sunk to their lowest levels in recent history. Whatever the purpose of Bandar's visit, the Russians were clearly not giving Syria any special privileges, and seemingly they were not interested in placing all their eggs in Bashar Assad's basket.

Badran provides a close look at President Assad's recent overtures toward Russia, and Russian relations with other (pro-US) Middle Eastern countries. Must read.

Targeting the Druze?

2008-09-10T19:18:00.000-07:00

The first assassination after the May conflict and the Doha agreement is yet another attack on a Druze target. A car bomb in the village of Baisour killed Lebanese Democratic Party politburo member Saleh Aride.

This was no accident. Car bombs are not meant to be subtle, especially when used in the quiet, mountainous Druze heartland.

Hezbollah made the Druze community as a whole their target during their May campaign. Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt reinforced his alliance with rival Druze leader Talal Arslan during and after the Hezbollah attacks on their community. Arslan is a friend and supporter of the Assad regime and the March 8 coalition. However, he is the junior partner in his alliance with Jumblatt

The assassination of one of Arslan's core supporters might be a message to Arslan to move away from Jumblatt and not provide him with pro-Syrian cover as Jumblatt tries to move away from the March 14 coalition. From 2004-8, Jumblatt was the most vociferous critic of the Syrian regime. The Damascus regime detests him more than any other Lebanese leader.

This assassination might be a statement from the Syrians to Jumblatt and Arslan that an entente between Jumblatt and Damascus is impossible. It might be a message to Arslan to realign himself. It might be a message to pro-Syrian Shia Amal leader Nabih Berri not to align himself too closely with Jumblatt, because Jumblatt is still persona non grata in Damascus. It has recently been reported that Jumblatt and Berri are trying to create a third way that opposes both the March 14 coalition and Hezbollah.

Some Lebanese claim that March 14 forces are responsible for the assassination to send a message to Jumblatt not to stray too far. However, this seems unlikely.

It is possible that Aride was involved in other activities that might have made him a target. We will most likely find out more in the coming hours and days.

The Russia/Georgia Conflict: The Syrian/Israeli Connection

2008-09-06T12:20:00.002-07:00

The Russian invasion of Georgia caught much of the Middle East by surprise, but political actors here were quick to try and capitalize off of it.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech comparing the West's support for Georgia to the West's support for Israel. Just as the West could not prevent the righteous Russians from invading sovereign Georgia, he argued, the West would eventually fall to the might of Hezbollah and other forces opposed to Israel.

Given Hezbollah's May putsch in Beirut against the internationally supported Siniora government, some Lebanese saw Nasrallah's remarks as justifying the forceful takeover of a democratically elected, Western supported government. The Beirut press filled with reports about Hezbollah acquiring sophisticated new weaponry - advanced anti-aircraft systems and missiles - from the Russians.

Syrian President Bashar Assad made a grand play, going to Moscow to ask the Russians for a major weapons deals. Assad offered the Russians Syrian soil on which to locate missile batteries.

The Lebanese and Israeli press, as usual, briefly went berserk. However, the news that the Russians were sending an aircraft carrier to Latakia did not ruffle many feathers because, allegedly, the aircraft carrier in question is old, should have been decommissioned, and might not be fit for combat.

Israel, however, used the Georgia invasion to tacitly and the effectively maneuver its way into a better regional bargaining position than their opponents.

The details:

Hezbollah was eager to score a rhetorical victory. They – allegedly in coordination with the Syrians - planted many of the news items about Russian military acquisitions scare their local opponents, knowing that the March 14 press would embellish the story even further.

The Syrian President saw an opportunity, but had nothing to give the Russians in return. The Syrians like to present themselves as eager allies of the Russians, and continuously mention the important Syrian relationship with the Soviet Union.

However, Assad never made the case as to why the Russians would want to plant missiles in Syria, or why the Russians would want to sell weapons to the Syrians. He assumed, like many others in the Middle East, that the Russians – historic supporters of Arab Nationalism and the Palestinian cause – would be eager to take an opportunity to support the most anti-American regime in the Arab world.

Yet, what interests do the Russians have in upsetting Turkey (a NATO member), the European Union, Arab regimes in the Middle East, the United States and its forces in Iraq, and the Israelis? Russian missiles in Syria would provide greater credibility to Assad, but how would the Russians benefit from that, given the immense amount of opposition they would face.

The Russians quickly dismissed Assad’s advances, and agreed to sell him minor weapons systems and sent the carrier as a show of support.

The Israelis were always one step ahead of the Syrians.

Before Assad crafted his plan, the Israelis had already negotiated a deal with the Russians.

Israel was an ardent supporter of Georgia’s nascent democracy, and was one of its main suppliers of advanced weaponry. Media outlets regularly noted that Georgia’s defense minister is Jewish. Israeli officials vocally supported Georgian President Saakashvili… until a few weeks ago.

According to a number of reports, the Israelis made a deal with Russia that they would stop providing weaponry and rhetorical support to the Georgians. In return, the Russians agreed not to change the security status quo in the Middle East. They refused to sell any weapons systems to the Syrians or Syria’s regional allies that would change regional dynamics.

Russia strengthened its sphere of influence, sending a message to the United States and Europe. The Israelis sent a message to Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah that the Russians have no interest in changing the regional balance. Then, Condoleeza Rice went to Libya…

Show your anger and cry for Tripoli..

2008-08-13T08:15:00.001-07:00

He’s only 8 years old. He does not go to school. Despite his very early age, he works, all day long, giving a shine to the Tripolitan businessmen’s shoes, and injecting hope into his daily struggle to assist his family financially. He is one of many similar poor children in the streets of the capital of North Lebanon; but now he is unique, different.. He died today.. not because of an ever threatening hunger, but because he was killed in one of the harshest Baghdad-style explosions in the history of Tripoli.

But the unfortunate kid of Tripoli's Banks street did not leave this life alone: Nine hero soldiers from the Lebanese army in addition to nine civilian victims shared his bloody destiny.. As their passenger bus was crossing this usually-busy arterial of the "Tell" district, 1.5 kgs of TNT explosives diffused their hatred in a city that has witnessed continuous conflicts and tensions recently.

Today's martyrs join 23 other victims that died in the Sunni-Alawi clashes that dominated the Bab el Tebbaneh-Baal Mohsen areas few weeks ago. Some fundamentalist pockets in Tripoli grew an increasing hatred against the Lebanese National Army especially after the army's determined eradication of Fath el Islam movement from the Nahr el Bared Palestinian Refugee camp. There have been many attempts to demoralize the army -not only in Tripoli-, and today's attempt is another episode of this long Tripoli-based anti-armed forces drama. It is worth mentioning here that this week, veiled women were loudly protesting against keeping people who were arrested during the Nahr el Bared operations, in prisons "without real reasons or accusations, other than their belonging to Islam" - according to the protesters. Despite all that, the Lebanese authorities and the Lebanese army remained firm and maintained their presence in the North's capital with a solid commitment to keep peace and restore security all around the city.

The growing Salafi currents in Tripoli's poor pockets is a real concern for the whole spectrum of the city's political and influential figures. Tripoli's Mufti, Cheikh Malek el Chaar, did all his best to gather Tripolitan figures from all confessions in a unified stand against the danger threatening the city. The moderate Tripolitan political powers (Future Movement, Mohammed el Safadi's Tripolitan Bloc, Former PM Najib Mikati, MP Musbah el Ahdab and even Former PM Omar Karami) are the big losers amidst all this mess. Moderation is being slowly replaced by fundamentalism and agressivity in Tripoli. All the city's politicians and even its -moderate- religious figures are becoming increasingly powerless and their control over the situation became negligible. It is believed that Tripoli has Qaeda cells and members today, it is also believed that there are several Nahr el Bared-like pockets around the city. But who is supporting those, who is bringing them to the Lebanese North and who is turning Tripoli into Qandahar? The simplistic and superficial answer would accuse Sunni figures of empowering those terrorists in order to face the threat of Hezbollah's "shia weapons" that were used against the People of the Sunnah last May in Beirut. But given that the so-accused Sunni figures are all losing ground and control over Tripoli, this explanation cannot be a logical one. Moreover, burning the streets of one of the largest Sunni agglomerations of the country, killing many Sunni people, and attacking the Lebanese army are not what political powers who gave full political support and cover to the Lebanese Armed Forces against [again] the Sunnis of Nahr el Bared would do. Therefore, the Sunni political powers are all falling into a virtual accusatory trap in an attempt to divert the attention from the fact that when Sunnis were attacked in Beirut, they had no militia to defend them- They put all their trust and faith in the Lebanese Army.

But who would benefit from this negative picture of the Sunnis? In the heated debates that marked the parliamentary discussions of the Governmental declaration, there was particularly a loud and harsh exchange of comments between Tripoli's MP Musbah el Ahdab and Amal's MPs Ayyoub Hmayyed and Ali Hassan Khalil. Hmayyed was accused by Ahdab of favoring one side in Tripoli's latest conflicts- the Alawis of Baal Mohsen. Hezbollah's general sceretary Hassan Nasrallah had drawn red lines in front of the army's intervention inside Nahr el Bared's camp. The army was further targeted when some of its officers were condemend and trialled after having tried to put an end to a destabilizing demonstration in the Chiyah area by pro-March 8 supporters.

An interesting noticeable fact is that the Lebanese Shia community mainly supports a fundamentalist Shia entity: that is Hezbollah and its Wilayat el Fakih Iranian Khomeinist agenda; while the majority of the Sunnis of Lebanon, and despite their good relations with KSA for example, remain more under the moderate political umbrella of slogans such as "Lebanon First". The Tripoli changes are an attempt to turn the largely moderate Sunni image into a fundamentalist picture that would not leave Hezbollah as the lonely fundamentalist islamist "army" in the country. The Tripoli repetitive events are an attempt to plant Baghdad-like and Tekrit-like terrorist Qaeda sunni fundamentalists to counterbalance Hezbollah, the equivalent of Muqtada el Sadr's Mehdi Army on the shia end. Sad but true, there are continuous attempts to turn the Lebanese Summer 2008 paradise into a bloody Iraq.

In the meantime, President Michel Sleiman is having serious discussions in Damascus: diplomatic relations, mutual agreements and most importantly, the destinies of Lebanese prisoners in Syria are on the table. Tripoli's disaster was not the only attempt to destabilize President Sleiman's firm mission and clear goals; in fact, a very limited regime-orchestrated Syrian protest in front of the Syrian Ministry of the Interior gathered "parents and friends of Syrian workers who disappeared in Lebanon", in an attempt to reduce the pressure of the eternal file of Lebanese political prisoners in Syria. Those are expected moves from a regime that has always denied the presence of a sovereign and independent Lebanese Republic, a regime that oppresses whoever tries to speak against its actions, a regime that contributes to the destabilization of all its neighbors.

As long as people will easily bypass laws in Lebanon, there will always be 8-year old children working in the streets of Tripoli, and as long as regional interventions will keep on haunting our country, those children will not only be threatened by hunger - Explosions can burn their fragile lives anytime...

Hide your anger and Smile for Beirut...

2008-08-07T21:04:00.000-07:00

2 a.m.. Long lines are filling the hallways of the only functional airport of the Land of the Cedars.. Women, men and children are enthusiastic, happy, smiling.. Life is abundant in that terminal that links Lebanon to the whole world.. But is this shine real? Are those smiles only temporary summer masks for a deep problem that can re-emerge and shake the country at any point? One thing is sure: the happiness of a succesful summer season - despite all its economic and moral benefits- cannot unfortnuately bridge any gaps between widely diverging views in the country: starting from the very name of our international airport, every social, economic or political item is a source of divides. Are those daily discusssions and harsh arguments worth it though? Why are some people still refusing to endorse the "Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport" label; did you hear any American ever complaining about the JFK airport in NYC or the Ronald Reagan airport in DC? Regardless of your opinion -or mine- about late Premier Rafic Hariri, the man gave Lebanon, worked for Lebanon and died in the harshest way possible in the heart of Lebanon's capital.. Deservedly or not, giving his name to the airport in memory of his martyrdom is not against anyone. Sadly enough, people continuously use that issue for useless attacks against the martyr leader and his followers. It is unacceptable to use the name of the airport in order to create biases, increase sectarian tensions or attempt to mark political points.. Few months ago, when Hezbollah and its allies were taking over Beirut, some enthusiastic March 8 supporters celebrated their "victory" and declared the airport as "Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's airport" through a Facebook group that is still maintained until today. The display picture of the group shows a Hezbollah militant on his motorbike at the airport, brandishing a Hezbollah flag, and the picture says "Al Matar tahta Akdamina - The airport under our feet". This group was launched when March 8 militiamen were attacking Beiruti homes, burning Future TV and forcefully imposing a blockade on all of Beirut's vital centers.
The military domination of Beirut was used by Hezbollah and their allies in order to strengthen Hezbollahland at the expense of the Lebanese government.
But hold on, keep this dark period away for now, and let us focus on the very active airport this summer.. Tourists, Lebanese immigrants: everyone is coming to Beirut this summer and everyone forgot about Hezbollah and their invasion.. Is it really everyone? Or..emmm what about those with killed family members or burned houses?
Hopefully the touristic season will bring back some of the much-needed morale to the Lebanese people.. Lebanon offers the best but Lebanon also deserves the best.. Even from far away now, I will still "Welcome you to the Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut"!

Foreigners in Beirut, Karadzic, and Lebanese politiciansTribunals

2008-08-02T22:21:00.000-07:00

Foreigners are running all over Beirut. I'm not talking about the Khalijee. They are doing just fine sitting in the downtown, in hotels, and making a few appearances in the neighborhoods.

Western visitors are running all over town. I don't call them tourists, because plenty are not. Some are summer Arabic students, some are backpackers, others are doing internships at the Daily Star, others are foreign freelance journalists, some are tourists (but it is harder to notice them because they do not regularly stop in areas frequented by locals), and some wear high and tight haircuts that bring to mind careers in less pleasant areas of the Middle East.

They are an interesting addition to the normal Beirut mix, yet reminiscent of the sorts of people I assisted in evacuating the country in 2006. Some claim that foreigners are a good sign. 2006 reveals that such opinions are merely that... opinions.

On another note...

Karadzic

Conspiracy theories are welcome in the Middle East. In the West, conspiracy theories sell books (JFK, UFOs, Hitler's bunker, Jimmy Hoffa), but the predominant frame is believed. In the Middle East, the conspiracy theories command more attention.

Former Bosnian-Serb leader Radovan Karadzic attests that the United States promised him a deal, but they are now possibly interested in murdering him.

In Lebanon, there is always talk of assassinations, foreign intrigue, American "meddling," and immoral realpolitik deals. Often, as is perhaps true in Karadzic's case, this is just talk.

However, what strikes me as highly intriguing is how the warlords of 1975-1990 ended that war filled with massacres, atrocities, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity without a single major international charge.

Obviously, no international tribunal, like the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) currently prosecuting Karadzic, existed to prosecute Lebanese crimes. The International Court of Justice existed, but did not prosecute such cases. The International Criminal Court was not formed until 2002.

The Lebanese civil war ended during the Cold War. One might argue that the United States and the Soviet Union were much more interested in global political maneuvering than in prosecuting Third World crimes, some of which these powers are implicated in. Also, the Soviet Union was collapsing, while the United States was seeking Middle Eastern allies to confront Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

The Arab League took and takes no interest in prosecuting criminal behaviors.

In 2001, a case was brought before Belgian courts under a new law to try Ariel Sharon for the Sabra and Shatila massacre. It was later overruled in 2002. However, to my knowledge, no one has ever tried to prosecute the crimes of the Lebanese civil war that involved Lebanese/Palestinian/Syrian actors.

South Africa, El Salvador, Argentina, Chile, and other countries in which trauma occured during the 1980s, all had Truth and Reconciliation Commissions. Lebanon received Syrian overlordship.

The Serbians, who were recently mired in war and committing atrocities, are on the way to being admitted into the European Union. Croatia, just as active a participant in that war, is almost qualified for entry. Slovenia, the country which first broke away from Yugoslavia and helped begin the conflict, is one of the most successful countries in the EU. Romania, a country destroyed by Ceaucescu and without the human capital available in Lebanon, is an EU member. Albania, the country that suffered from the most oppressive form of authoritarianism, is rapidly improving, and can dream of EU membership.

In Lebanon, the memories and hatred remain, the warriors are members of parliament (not just the leaders, but also the henchmen, like Tony Zahra of the Barbara checkpoint), and those injured by the conflict continue to suffer under the whims of those who injured them in the 1980s.

There are plenty of people in Lebanon who support the Serb radicalist cause, and generally for misguided reasons: anti-Americanism, anti-Muslim sentiment, pro-Orthodox Christianity unity (which is the most ridiculous given that Orthodox Christianity never condones murder).

There are others in Lebanon who argue against tribunals. Like Karadzic and some Serb radicals, they argue that international tribunals are politicized. Tribunals go after heroes of the anti-American resistance, while they let others go free. Tribunals give America everything it wants, but deny local citizens their dignity, sovereignty, and justice.

Tell that to the Bosnian Muslims. Tell that to the families of assassinated Lebanese whose families have not received justice. Just because one murderer is not caught does not mean that 20 other murderers should be let off. Just because one crime against humanity is not tried does not mean that all crimes should not be tried.

Lebanon needs to make sure that, domestically, murderers are tried. That sounds obvious to others outside of Lebanon, but you will be surprised by how many people here (including those you think are your allies) agree that murderers should be set free for political reasons.

Middle East Sectarianism

It seems Egypt, too, is suffering from sectarianism.

Democracy in the Middle East: Beirut, Lebanon, and the Need for a Constitution

2008-07-29T10:29:00.000-07:00

Lee Smith reviews Brookings Institute scholar Kenneth Pollack's new book in Slate this week.

Smith argues, "The paradox is that one of our [America's] sharpest limitations is that we believe democracy is a universal cure-all, good for all people at all times, when that is almost certainly not the case."

Sadly, I agree, to a certain degree, with Smith.

Smith seems to believe that Arab culture and society are not prepared for democracy because Middle Eastern states do not exist. In countries that could be described as states, like in the Gulf, the countries are by no means liberal, and primarily operate through local familial connections. Their visa and citizenship requirements guarantee that the foreign working populations develop no long term attachments to their places of residence, or if they do, that they understand and abide by how the local system works.

Where I differ with Smith is in my idealism. I would like to believe that democracies are predicated on constitutions. The Arab nationalists of the 60s, and even many pro-Syrian and pro-Western Lebanese politicians today also believe this, which is why they argue so vehemently over government policy statements (as is happening in the Beirut Serail as I write).

Americans are not incorrect to believe in democracy. In some places, democracy is an easy fix to a constitutional/ governmental quandary. After the fall of the Soviet Union, many Central and Eastern European countries saw the value of joining their Western European brethren in a democratic community. Social networks and cultures crushed under the weight of Soviet oppression desired a panacea and found it in joining the democratic world and the European Union.

However, these people had an incentive to join. They had something to gain. The Soviet Union, on which they relied, failed, and they needed an immediate fix to their desperate problems. The United States and Europe came along.

Nothing is promised for democracies in the Middle East. If anything, the Lebanese example tells the Emirati that they are better off without a democratic system. Could they have done nearly as much in the last 20 years if they were like the Lebanese, a playground for regional actors, rife with corruption.

As MP Farid el-Khazen noted, in 1975 when Franco died, would Spain have become a functioning democracy if the countries around it were not? Would it have become a democracy if France was struggling with a civil war?

In the end, this post is more about Lebanon than Middle East democracy. This should not be surprising given that Lebanon is the only Arabic speaking Middle Eastern country with a heritage of democracy, regardless of how plagued and dissimilar to Western democracy it is.

The primary problem with Lebanon is that the Constitution is not applicable to the society it governs. The Francophone constitution represents a model in which one faction can rule benificently over minorities, from the center/ capital with no other form of representation. However, even the majority faction was divided when the Constitution came into being, and the minority was more of an opposition than a pliant recipient of majority good will.

Taef was not the solution for Lebanon. Lebanon is in need of a constitutional convention to re-evaluate the management of the country.

The end of foreign occupation of the country - which happened both in 2000 and 2005 - could have been a useful opportunity for such a discussion. However, in 2000 the occupation of only one party ended. In 2005, the occupation of another party ended, but the interests of that party remained.

Given the activities of foreign actors and foreign-allied actors in Lebanon (a senior member of Fatah was assassinated today in Ain el Helwe), this period is one of crisis, rather than a post-occupation calm, like that experienced in the United States, Eastern Europe, and many other post-Colonial democracies. Also unfortunate, is the fact that years of war entrenched warlords in power rather than enlightened warriors fighting for their people, not just for themselves.

President Sleiman will convene a national dialogue. Hopefully, something will come of it. If not, the hope of Lebanese nationalists, idealists, and supporters of Arab democracy will die.

The Middle East has been very good at murdering idealism and forcing individuals to conform to the tribal, sectarian rubrique.

We could be left with an international opinion about the Middle East similar to Smith's. If we want to support Lebanese democracy, now is the time to do it.

If we want war, there are far more interested parties willing to supply us with weapons than those willing to support our democratic gambit.

Lebanese Reactions to Qantar's Release

2008-07-16T19:36:00.000-07:00

My friends and I were in a pub this evening when Samir Qantar spoke.

I wanted to see and listen to the speak, but the pub owner intentionally turned off the television to prevent just such viewing and conversations.

Regardless, friends arriving late (which is expected in Lebanon), told us about the contents of the speech. I apologize to all those offended, but I was not expecting much. Samir Qantar was imprisoned in his teens. Unlike most of my friends, who doubt Qantar's intellectual capabilities based merely on his presentation, I am willing to give the man a second chance. According to al-Akhbar, he reads the Arabic press on a daily basis.

Regardless, the man has been imprisoned for years, and has not been honing is speech making abilities. If any, Qantar in Naqoura looked surprised by his reception. He truly appreciated the welcome he received.

Unfortunately, Lebanon does not provide much more than this day to him. Hezbollah might try to nominate him for a parliamentary seat, but his speech today manifests that he must take a few years to practice his political skills. Obviously, this is a man who has been imprisoned since his teens. If Antoine Zahra and Gebran Bassil have trouble giving proper interviews to a perspicacious Lebanese interviewer, imagine what the Lebanese media would do to Qantar.

Prisoners in Helicopter

2008-07-16T09:09:00.000-07:00

The 5 former prisoners are getting in a helicopter on the way to the Beirut Airport.

None of the prisoners spoke to the crowd in Naqoura.

Return Celebration Occuring in Naqoura

2008-07-16T09:01:00.000-07:00

The 5 former prisoners are wearing Lebanese Army uniforms. None these people fought for the Lebanese Army when they were caught, thus their uniforms suggest an coordinated effort to brand this event as one that unifies Lebanon.

The international media is heavily covering the events. The events in Lebanon are getting far more coverage than on the Israeli side. The jubilation on the Lebanese side is being compared with the somber tone on the Israeli side.

No live prisoners were returned to Israel.

5 Prisoners Back in Lebanon

2008-07-16T08:07:00.000-07:00

The five Lebanese prisoners are in Lebanon. Soon, they will take a helicopter to Beirut to meet:

the Lebanese President,

Prime Minister,

Speaker of Parliament,

Lebanese cabinet,

the heads of all branches of Lebanese security and intelligence services,

other Lebanese leaders and dignitaries,

the Iranian Ambassador,

the German Ambassador,

the commander of UNIFIL,

and others.

Qantar is a Criminal

2008-07-15T18:49:00.001-07:00

I am glad that the Lebanese in Israeli prisons will be returned to Lebanon.

The soldiers captured in the 2006 war were pawns in Hezbollah's scheme, and it is good that they will return to their families. However, Samir Qantar is a different story.

It is true: many Lebanese who committed horrific crimes during the civil war should be imprisoned. The murderers of Sabra, Shatila, Bhamdoun, Souk al Garb, Damour, Tell al Zaater, the wars of the camps, and more go unpunished. However, few of those civil war crimes were specifically identified. Individual A was never accused of being guilty of killing Victim B.

Regarding Samir Qantar, the crime is evident. Qantar killed Israeli government personnel and civilians during a raid in the middle of a war. However, he also killed a four year old girl by smashing a rock into her head. There is no excuse on Earth to justify that action, and there is no way that I can ever say that this man is a hero. Any man willing to smash in the head of a 4 year old child with a rock should remain in prison for the rest of his life.

My disgust has no words... My tears...

War is horrible. Horrible things happen. Many of the most horrible events go undocumented. When horrendous events are documented, one has a moral duty to take those issues into account. If one does not, one is morally worse than his enemy and spiritually bereft. Any moral arguments for war and a righteous cause evaporate when one accepts disgusting, horrendous, reprehensible acts as normal, or even heroic.

Now, we hear in al-Akhbar newspaper that Hezbollah wants Qantar to run for parliament. Obviously, Druze leader and PSP chief Walid Jumblatt might oppose this. However, Qantar might run with Hezbollah's support.

Nothing would say more about Hezbollah's ethics than for them to nominate Qantar. The party claims moral legitimacy, but their actions defy their rhetorical claims.

New Cabinet: Not that Great

2008-07-11T19:15:00.000-07:00

I'm glad there is a new Lebanese government (for information on political affiliation, see NOW Lebanon. However, their data is not entirely correct. For example, they list both Ibrahim Shamsedine and Tarek Mitri as Information Minister). I am not happy with the cabinet composition.

Last year, Michael Young predicted in the Daily Star that if Saad Hariri wanted to assume the office of prime minister, he would be forced to appoint a cabinet of ministers composed of major sectarian political players from different regions in Lebanon. Although Saad is not PM, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's cabinet seems to have this composition, which is a major disappointment.

The good:

1. Ziad Baroud, Minister of Interior. Baroud brought together a diverse and encompassing group to create a new electoral law for Lebanon that represents minority and majority interests from all different perspectives. The law is infeasible in Lebanon's current climate, but sets the standard for humane, ethical, and equitable democratic representation in Lebanon.

I have no doubt he will ethically and competently serve Lebanon in his capacity as the chief law enforcer in Lebanon. [Full disclosure: I know the Minister personally, and happen to like him].

Baroud's appointment is also a statement of President Sleiman's commitment to Lebanon. Baroud is one of President Sleiman's 3 cabinet appointees. I know nothing of their personal or familial relationship, but the fact that Baroud is serving in this cabinet is encouraging.

2. Elias Murr, Minister of Defense. Minister Murr is a political appointee, but serves as if he is a technocrat. He was an excellent Interior Minister, and even better as Minister of Defense. He knows the political obligations of his position, but ensures that his ministry is constantly improving and working to meet international standards.

Politically, he and his father, Metn MP and za'im Michel el-Murr, balance between the competing influences in Lebanon. He supported former President Emile Lahoud, then support the 14 March Coalition when the situation required it of him, and is now representing President Michel Sleiman.

This could be interpreted as political opportunism or the machinations of a political family trying to constantly maintain their grip on power, however, the excellent job Murr has done in his position suggests a realistic and competent defense of Lebanon and Lebanese sovereignty.

President Sleiman appointed Murr, as well.

3. Raymond Audi, Minister of the Displaced. I know little about Raymond Audi's political background. I have an account with his bank, and I have met him on a few apolitical occasions. The Minister collects and appreciates art, which is a shared interest.

Regardless, a banker and financier assuming a ministry allegedly reputed as one of the best for graft and embezzlement, could be a positive development.

However, it is not necessarily a positive development that one of the wealthiest and most prominent Lebanese citizens is filling a position that could go to a less prominent and wealthy expert in the field.

4. Muhammed Khalifeh, Minister of Health. Khalifeh was an excellent Health Minister in the previous government. Unfortunately, his Amal political affiliation forced him to resign from his position before the end of his term, but he still upheld the highest of standards.

A few months ago, Hezbollah spread rumors that the Future Movement would support Khalifeh as Minister of Health in the next government, given his capabilities. This was not just a swipe at Amal (rumored to actively endorse embezzlement), but a vote of confidence in a capable minister.

5. Tarek Mitri, Minister of Information. I am not sure what the Minister of Information does. I know that journalists receive their press credentials from the Ministry. PSP MP Ghazi Aridi has occupied the position for so long, I generally associate it as the ministry for eloquent government spokespeople.

Regardless, Mitri is a technocrat par excellence. He joined the previous government as one of President Lahoud's appointees, but continued to serve in a prominent capacity in the 14 March government as the "opposition" resigned.

Mitri was the best post-war Minister of Culture, and (no insult to Minister Aridi - who has received a portfolio boost) will probably be the best post-war Minister of Information. He's competent, qualified, dignified, and highly competent.

The bad:

1. Elie Skaff, Minister of Agriculture. Do I need to explain? It has been publicly alleged that Skaff profited massively from his previous Ministerial posts.

Skaff dominates Zahle and West Bekaa politics. The man is quite genial. He has an excellent sense of humor, and his politics are not sectarian. Future Movement Sunnis in the West Bekaa love Skaff just as much Greek Catholics in Zahle.

However, naming him to this portfolio is a blatantly political attempt to provide aid to Bekaa farmers in an effort to win over votes in the next parliamentary elections for himself, Michel Aoun, and pro-Syrian allies (perhaps, Abdel Rahim Mrad), against supporters of the Future Movement and other 14 March parties.

2. Gebran Bassil, Minister of Telecommunications. Telecommunications? Seriously? Why, because he dominates the Lebanese airwaves so much?

Bassil is regularled criticized for being ill-prepared for television interviews. His political rise is entirely tied to his marriage to Michel Aoun's daughter. FPM members claim he is brilliant, and singlehandedly crafted their "Memorandum of Understanding" with Hezbollah. 14 March supporters claim the man is the incompetent scion of the Aounist establishment.

Such an important Ministry? Really?

At this time, Lebanon needs a truly competent person in this position. Why not the allegedly competent Issam Abu Jamra? (Oh, yeah. That's because Aoun wanted to steal the ceremonial "deputy prime minister" from Elias el-Murr).

Former Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamade was reputed to leave the majority of day to day business to his operations officer, who is also the head of Ogero. However, Hamade's political view - primarily his interest in safeguarding his personal safety (he was a target of assassination in 2004) and that of his associates - provided impetus to guarantee that the Interior Ministry and UN investigating team had access to the necessary telephone files.

I know the former Minister personally, and he is a highly intelligent man. His political view, however, might have also stifled the privatization of Lebanon's telecommunications networks, as his Future Movement chief operations officer is rumored to be making present decisions based on an interest in becoming the future CEO of a privatized Ogero. The head of Ogero is competent, but I hear there needs to be a bit more oversight in the ministry. Will Bassil provide it?

Hamade's son also owns a telecommunications firm, which was a blatant conflict of interest for the former minister, which is sadly expect in Lebanon (please don't cancel my internet account).

If Bassil takes aggressive action, I will support him the entire way. If, while in this position, he behaves like the Aounist political partisan he has for the last three years, I will be utterly disgusted, especially at this crucial time.

Thankfully, the heads of Ogero, MTC, and Alfa are highly intelligent and competent individuals. Given their competence, if Bassil decides to use his post for political purposes alone, Lebanon will be fine. If he chooses to stifle March 14 investigations into assassinations, his post will be devastating for Lebanon.

3. Talal Arslan, Minister of Youth and Sports. Seriously? Arslan? Come on, opposition. Do you really hate Waleed Jumblatt that much? I guess so. Thanks for letting him know where you stand. If you nominated Wiam Wahhab during the cabinet negotiations for the position, you would have even more blatantly let all of us know your fealty to the Syrian regime. Oh, wait. You did that by annointing Ali Qanso as a Minister of State.

The expected:

1. Bahia Hariri, Minister of Education. I understand the political calculations for naming Hariri to this position, but is there any way she could be construed as a technocrat? Sadly, I don't think so.

Hariri has suffered significantly with the assassination of her brother, the daily attacks on her family's reputation, and the threats to her personal safety. Regardless, I can think of no other reason to appoint her to this ministry other than in preparation for the next elections. Hezbollah, the Saad family, and other powerful families in Saida have the strength to sweep Bahia Hariri out of her seat in the qada during the next elections, if 14 March is not aggressive.

But seriously, education? I guess the Hariri's used to give a lot of education grants, but they significantly decreased those efforts in 1998.

Hariri deserves a cabinet seat. My disappointment is that there are so many qualified educators in Lebanon who truly deserve this position who would make it their personal priority to better the quality of education in Lebanon. If Lebanon produces anything, it is educated and brilliant minds, many of whom serve as teachers and professors in Lebanon, and also the majority of others who pursue careers abroad.

2. Muhammad Chattah, Minister of Finance. Chattah is a smart man. He is dignified and loyal.

He also happens to be from Tripoli, which will be the sight of a major electoral battle during the next elections, especially if Muhammad Safadi, Najib Miqati, and Omar Karami unite and throw money at the locals.

Chattah has the required experience for this crucial position. He is also one of the most trusted Hariri/Siniora aides. Yet, Jihad Azour was excellent as Minister of Finance. He won international awards, was loved by his staff, and has international credibility.

I understand that the Future Movement was limited in the number of Christian ministers it could appoint. I understand that Hezbollah/Amal tried to name all of the Shia ministers, so Future tried to name all of the Sunni ministers. I understand that Chattah is competent and credible and will probably do an excellent job. But shouldn't Future fight to be able to appoint competent Christian ministers, or at least urge Future's Christian political allies to lend a spot to a technocrat? Shouldn't the Future Movement award competence?

I am happy that a competent person is in the position of Finance Minister. I am also happy that Chattah was named as a member of the cabinet. He would serve well in any cabinet position.

However, I do not like that his appointment can be construed as being made for blatantly political and sectarian reasons, and that a highly competent, technocratic, successful, admirable person was removed from the cabinet.

3. Khaled Qabbani, Minister of State. Seriously, Future Movement, what does Qabbani do for you? I'm being entirely serious.

In the previous government, he was education minister. Did he serve with particular distinction?

In the previous government, he made a ridiculous fuss about the Habtoor Grand Hotel being a story too tall. It was a non-decorous move.

Is he that important for the next elections? Siniora, is he that good of an adviser? Or, do you just like his tinted glasses, and the fact that he follows you around everywhere and looks like a pious Muslim when you pray in front of television cameras?

4. Tamam Salam, Minister of Culture. Come oooooooon, Future Movement. This move is so blatantly political, it is ridiculous.

Salam is a good guy. He's from a prominent Sunni Beiruti family. Getting him on your side helps you prevent Salim al-Hoss and other pro-Syrian Sunnis in Beirut from winning a seat or two in the newly apportioned Beirut parliamentary districts.

However, after an excellent technocratic Minister of Culture like Tarek Mitri, Salam seems like an entirely political appointee. I'm not saying that he will not do a phenomenal job. He might. But your reasons for choosing him, Mitri's excellent tenure, and the huge possibility that he will use the trappings of his office without returning the favor to the Lebanese people who democratically elected the parliament that appoints him is reason enough for me to be disappointed. Please, please, please, surprise me with your competence, sense of duty, and interest in defending Lebanon's cultural freedom, Minister Salam. I apologize for my skepticism in advance.

5. Everybody else. Pretty much all of the other ministers are expected and their appointments made for political reasons, so I won't comment on them. The above ministers are the ones that most inspired/ disappointed me.

Obviously, many ministers received their positions based on pragmatic politics, not competence. However, this cabinet is much better than it would have been if political views were the only justification for appointments. There is plenty of competence.

Obviously, I am also much more disappointed with the Future Movement than with other parties. This, obviously, shows my bias and the fact that I expect more from PM Siniora than I do from, say, Elie Skaff and Ali Qanso.

I have come to expect a certain type of behavior and a certain display of moral and ethical values from Amal and Hezbollah, which makes me surprised when a compentent and qualified person like Muhammad Khalifeh is appointed as a minister.

The PSP cabinet selections are expected. I am surprised that Marwan Hamade is not a minister in the current government. However, losing a seat to Talal Arslan was probably a difficult compromise to make, as well.

I do not know why Waleed Jumblatt continues to appoint Wael Abou Faour to positions. This is not to say anything about about Minister of State (ie, without portfolio) Abou Faour. I have never met him. However, he is obviously providing value to his party and people. I say this merely because I do not know much about Abou Faour, which is entirely my fault.

The ministers representing the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb, and the Qornet Shehwan Gathering are untested commodities. Much would be expected of Qornet Shehwan cabinet member Nassib Lahoud. However, he does not have a portfolio. This means that he will probably dominate Lebanese microphones between now and the next parliamentary elections. His cabinet seat might also put him in a better negotiating position with Amine Gemayel, Michel el-Murr, Karim Pakradouni, and Hagop Pakradounian in getting elected as a parliamentarian from Metn.

Best Araq?

2008-07-10T19:04:00.000-07:00

Tripoli is under attack, and no one knows what will happen in Lebanon come the end of summer. However, summer is tourist/ araq season.

Grapes ripen in the autumn, however, summer always reminds me of copious cups of araq.

Sure, sure, araq baladi is the best. I am sure your uncle makes the best brew on top of some mountain somewhere, and only the best cousins can get their hands on the stuff. I have a big jug of the stuff sitting in my pantry.

There needs to be a corporate Lebanese araq ranking. Michael Karam wrote a book about araq, but there needs to be a practical list.

Lebanese abroad love bringing the sexy blue Massaya araq bottles and the Rif "traditional Lebanese" logo araq bottles back to Liberia, Australia, and Canada. Yet, which are the best? Does the best araq come in the best branded bottles? Can one purchase an amazing bottle of branded araq?

1. Kefraya - Kefraya's araq is creamy and smooth. Unlike other brands of araq, Kefraya's is not watery. The beverage is consistent and cool. The taste of Kefraya araq, unlike araq baladi, is consistent from year to year. The araq flavor is excellent, but it is the texture that puts Kefraya over the top and into hte number one position.

2. Le Brun - Le Brun is the Lebanese standard. Brun began producing araq in Zahle in the 19th Century, and the current owners, the Issa family, continue the tradition. Like Kefraya, Brun araq is consistent and delicious. Brun is the perfect araq to accompany a meal. Brun araq accompanies dishes well, but will hardly provide a unique araq experience.

3. Touma - This inexpensive araq brand is the best quality for the cost. The bottles are ridiculously cheap. The content is watery and provides a bit of an aftertaste, but does the job, as long as one is looking for the right amount of alcohol to kill the bacteria in kibbeh nayyeh during a Sunday afternoon lunch.

There are plenty of other araq brands:

Pricier:
Ksarak
Massaya - the blue bottle
Rif - the traditional Lebanese/ baladi logo

Mid-range:
El Beit al Araq
As Samir
Fakra
Kouroum
Wardy
Chateau Khoury (I haven't tried it, but if it is as good as the wine, then it should be in the top three)

Inexpensive:
Gantous
Litani
Hasbani

What are your favorites?

Deals? Lebanon, America, and the Middle East

2008-07-08T17:48:00.000-07:00

Lebanese have been talking about a deal between America, Iran, and Syria for years. From 2005-2007, this deal seemed unlikely.

2008, however, is the year in which quite a few Lebanese analysts believe some deal has "actually" occurred.

One professor at the American University of Beirut argues, "Look at the violence in Iraq. It has decreased tremendously. This could not happen without Syria and Iran taking action.

"Look at Israel's negotiations with Syria under Turkish eyes. America definitely knows about this, not just on the intel level, but on the diplomatic level. Something is happening."

Is there a deal? I have no idea. For a long time, I did not think it would even be possible. Now, however, there are military movements. What does it mean? Still, no idea, and yet what local politically connected analysts are saying is that the Tribunal matters less and less.

For quite a long time, many Sunni in Beirut were interested in toppling the Syrian regime. That language is gone. They seem to believe the regime in Damascus is here to stay, not because of an American deal, but because of a confluence of interests, much of which emanates from the Arabian Gulf.

Is it possible that the US is urging the Gulf States to take an easier line on Syria? Yes. Is it possible that the Turks and Israelis are involved in influencing the American position? Yes. Is this true? I have no idea.

My read:

1. After the Hezbollah campaign in Beirut in May 2008, it seems that the Europeans are willing to placate the Iranians and Hezbollah. The EU was never aggressive in the first place, and now seem far more willing to normalize relations.

2. It is regularly mentioned that the Israeli government is weak, and Prime Minister Olmert is looking for minor gains. He has Ehud Barak's example to follow. Olmert might be perceived as a failure now, but if he can craft some sort of deal, his political life could last long after this term as Prime Minister.

3. The Saudi government realizes that its efforts at international diplomacy have only brought disgrace to the King in situations where he has put his credibility on the line, ie the Mecca Agreement and support for Hariri and the Siniora government. Iran/Syria have checked him at each advance.

4. President Bush's term is coming to an end, and it is more important to justify and guarantee a free and stable Iraq than it is to crush other American enemies.

5. From what I hear from Europeans, there is an international belief that the Middle East conflict can be contained at the moment, given the price of oil. The US, Europe, India, and China have an interest in preventing a Mideast cataclysm, and Iran and Russia perhaps believe that their currently profitable interests would be hurt if there is any more instability.

I have no idea, but what I hear indicates that the US, and especially Europe, are taking a much less aggressive stance when it comes to Mideast politics. And "deal" rumors are spoken about in Beirut as if it verified fact...

Physician Elections

2008-07-08T16:37:00.001-07:00

I have seen no press coverage regarding the League of Physicians elections. Then again, I haven't really been looking.

Over the past two weeks, I've received myriad text messages:

"Dear Dr., for the election on July 6, don't forget your LOP card or ID, Tazkara, Ikhraj Kaid less than 1 year, or passport. These are the only ID paper [sic] accepted." - 30 June 2008

"Dear Dr., the Lebanese Order of Physicians is pleased to grant you for the coming 2 weeks a free Dr.s platinum Mastercard with free benefits." - 1 July 2008

"Dear Doctor, You are the voice of wisdom, of pride. You are Lebanon best [sic]. Lebanon will appreciate to hear your voice Sunday for our brothers the doctors candidates of 14th of March. Confirm your choice for the best Sunday 7th until 13:00. Make the difference. God bless you. The friends of 14th of March." - Signed Doctors14th 3 July 2008

I accidentally deleted the first half of this message, but here is the second half:
"Make the difference. Please vote, Lebanon needs you. We need you [sic] vote for the candidates of 14th of March. God bless you. The friends of 14th of March." - 6 July 2008

"Get a USD 5,000 loan from BLC Bank and repay only USD 135 a month." - 7 July 2008

On the day of the election, I received a personal call from one of the candidates.

He was surprised and angered to hear that I had no intention of voting. I do not believe that syndicates and professional associations should be governed by the usual Lebanese political refrains. This might anger many of you readers. One (more specifically, you) may argue that Lebanese politics is such that these minor elections make politically significant something that should remain parochial; therefore, by your logic, I should manifest my political beliefs in a professional situation.

Unfortunately, I do not believe in politicizing healthcare. Labor unions throughout the world are political, but in Lebanon their politics have little to do with bettering the conditions of their constituents (doctors, construction workers, hotel and services workers, plumbers, etc.), and more to do with making a political statement for a particular political faction.

Don't forget, Hezbollah invaded Beirut under the pretext of a labor strike to raise the minimum wage.

Still No Peace in Lebanon

2008-06-22T17:51:00.000-07:00

Apologies for not blogging over the past few weeks. After the conflict, I needed a break.

As predicted, the Doha Agreement merely ended the chaos in Beirut, elected President Michel Sleiman, and provided tourists and Lebanese abroad with the semblance of stability.

Violence continues to break out across Lebanon. Tripoli is the most recent site of full-scale sectarian, political violence.

Violence rages in Palestinians camps. As usual, the Lebanese media inflates rumors and scares the Lebanese population into believing the next Nahr al Bared is upon us.

Sectarianism is the highest I have ever seen it. Many older residents of Beirut believe the discord between Lebanese sects is the greatest they have ever seen in their lifetimes. Of course, the Lebanese media continues to fan sectarian flames.

For a time after Doha, it seemed that Hezbollah and Amal would make sure that a new Lebanese government would come together quickly. However, they have since decided that the most politically expedient action for them is to allow MP Michel Aoun to block any government formation. This accomplishes two things:

1) Prime Minister-designate Fouad Siniora and the March 14 Coalition is undermined and once again their political power is in the balance.

2) President Michel Sleiman is being undermined and shown that he better not make any decisions the opposition dislikes. Right now, the opposition is testing to see if Sleiman will bend/break when pressured. Fortunately for Sleiman, he has powerful allies in March 14. Unfortunate for Sleiman, his main ally and the chief architect of his election, Michel el-Murr, is being targeted by Hezbollah, Amal, and Michel Aoun for his March 14 biases, and for his political break with Aoun's political bloc.

Once again, the opposition shifts the debate time and again away from compromise. When March 14 leaders concede a point to the opposition, they instantly demand something else. Take for instance this effort to try and tie the formation of the new government to negotiations over the electoral law, negotiations which will be trying and drawn out.

The Icing on the Cake

Hezbollah now contends that it has no interest in ever giving up its weapons, regardless of a return of all Lebanese prisoners in Israel and Israel conceding to the Syrian invented claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese.

Even worse, Hezbollah is preventing full, peaceful negotiations with Israel over myriad issues, even though both Hezbollah and Syria are negotiating with the Israelis right now.

Negotiations with Israel over the southern border are extremely important. Areas like the Shebaa Farms and the village of al-Ghajar are neither completely Lebanese or Syrian territory. As the late Syrian President Hafez al Assad noted, the border between Lebanon and the Syrian Golan was never defined. Al-Ghajar, literally, lies on both sides of the border. Technically, part of the village is Lebanese, but the residents are primarily Allawi and publicly announce that they consider themselves Syrian.

Syria is currently negotiating over the Golan, which is most likely why they refuse to sign any legal documents to support their claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese. This is also why Syria's Lebanese allies refuse to allow direct negotiations between Lebanon and Syria. Syria wants to be in charge of all negotiations, and a settlement between Lebanon and Israel removes more than one of Syria's negotiating cards.

Just as Syria refuses to demarcate the eastern border between Lebanon and Syria, if the Golan is returned to them, they will most likely use that territory to their advantage.

Syria wants to make sure that there will be no peace between Lebanon and Israel before Syria is able to extract everything they want out of the Israelis, and probably also extract everything they want out of the international community (which definitely includes diminishing Lebanese sovereignty in favor of Syrian hegemony).

UEFA Cup and Beirut Politics

2008-06-09T15:08:00.000-07:00

The Italians wore blue. The Dutch wore Orange. The referees wore yellow.

But what some viewers of the UEFA Cup in Beirut saw on Monday 9 June was Lebanese politics.

"Ahhh, the Aounniye are beating Mustaqbal," said one observer noting that the Dutch team, wearing the colors of Lebanese Christian opposition figure Michel Aoun, scored two goals in the first half while the Italians scored none, despite wearing blue uniforms, the color of Saad al Hariri's Future (Mustaqbal) Movement.

Another woman responded, "What do you expect when Hezbollah sets the rules." Hezbollah's color is yellow, and the party has a "Memorandum of Understanding" with Michel Aoun.

The current fury over football reminds locals that sport is as much of a Lebanese passion as politics. Beirut's downtown came alive in 2004 when the Greeks won the European football competition. In June 2006 Beirut's streets turned to utter chaos with World Cup fever.

One longtime Beirut residing Dutch observer walking through Beirut's downtown noted, "It's as if everything that happened between the end of the World Cup 2006 and the UEFA Cup 2008 did not take place. It's as if nothing happened."

For all the revelry surrounding President Sleiman's election and the first conflict free summer, there are still violent acts occuring throughout Lebanon. Sunday night, a battle was fought between Hezbollah supporters and Future supporters in the Bekaa. A skirmish also took place in the Chouf mountains between rival Druze factions.

The security situation has not improved. The Palestinian camps are entirely unregulated, and strange stories routinely crop up about unknown individuals living in the camps becoming involved in violent activities.

Aoun Blocking Cabinet Formation: His Last Stand?

2008-06-04T15:39:00.000-07:00

According to members of the Amal Movement, Michel Aoun is needlessly blocking the creation of a new Lebanese cabinet. Amal officially denied these claims today, but party activists claim what they told me yesterday is true.

Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun intentionally requested particular ministries in Prime Minister Siniora's government to block the formation of the cabinet. Aoun has long been interested in the Justice Ministry, so it was immediately suspicious to Siniora's staff and Future Movement members that Aoun requested the ministries of Finance, Public Works, Health, Labor, and one other (possibly agriculture?).

These ministries are the few that have publicly been spoken for. Current Finance Minister Jihad Azour strongly requested that he continue in the job. He's done a phenomenal job, and Siniora and Amal thought that there is no reason he should not continue. Tripoli MP Muhammad Safadi has made it known that he is interested in the Public Works ministry, which he presided over in the previous government. The most skilled and reputable Amal minister in the previous government Khalifeh, presided over the Ministry of Health and Amal publicly made it know that the party wants him to continue the excellent job he did previously. The Ministry of Labor always goes to an extreme pro-Syrian figure.

According to Future and Amal members, Aoun is disingenuously engaging in the formation of the cabinet. He had no interest in electing Michel Sleiman president. He did not want Siniora to return as prime minister, and he knows that his political party and support will forever be transformed if the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) takes part in the government.

According to Amal sources, Aoun is doing this because he is taking orders from Syria, which is furious that it no longer has a stranglehold on Lebanon. My take is different:

First, Aoun is the sole leader of the FPM. According to the press, the FPM is divided between followers of Aoun and idealistic Christian technocrats who do not like the direction sectarian, feudal Lebanon is headed. Recently, party divisions came to light during the FPM internal elections, which were postponed.

Second, the FPM is not alloted 5 ministries in the next government. Hezbollah originally insinuated that it would give Aoun its share of seats in the next government, but then reversed their decision.

Had Aoun been elected president, he would have had tremendous power. He could have solidified his domination over the FPM and begun digging further into the support bases of other Christian leaders. He would have been able to appoint all of the members of his family and inner circle to well-paying positions (ministries, advisers, generals, ambassadors), but also have plenty of room to provide positions to supporters from the other side of the party.

Now, Aoun's choices are limited. He was not allocated enough ministries to do what he wants to do, which is:

a) appoint his relatives, like Gebran Bassil, as ministers;

b) appoint two opposing FPM leaders from the non-inner circle camp to ministries and bait them to feud with one another, thus maintaining Aoun's position as undeniable party leader, moderator of internal party conflicts, and also preventing any other FPM leader from using his ministry/power base to begin rising in the party and becoming a leader in his own right;

c) appoint non-Christian ministers to advance Aoun's secular, non-sectarian credentials;

d) minimize the influence of Hariri, Siniora, Jumblatt, Geagea, and Gemayel and steal press time away from, while also coming closer to dictating the terms of the new cabinet;

e) to further expand Aoun's and the FPM's base throughout all of Lebanon, including all sects and regions. If Aoun could do this, he would simultaneous become i) the only truly national Lebanese leader, thus the most powerful politician in Lebanon, ii) the undeniable Christian leader, including in Koura and Zahle which are still ruled by allies, iii) the unopposed leader of the FPM, iv) in a position to challenge the constitutionality of Sleiman's election and call for a new election, v) fully advance his own agenda, and become the savior of Lebanon.

It's a nice dream. However, there is no room to compromise in Aoun's vision. He wants power to implement his dream. FPMers defend Aoun because they believe in his dream. March 14ers cannot get beyond Aoun's tactics, and for obvious reasons like intentionally blocking the formation of a new cabinet, undermining negotiations, destroying opportunities for compromise and unity, and not requesting what he really wants, all while claiming moral superiority.

In the cabinet negotiations, Aoun probably doesn't have much of a plan. His advisers are probably competing amongst themselves.

Aoun cannot honestly negotiate, because specific ministries are not what he wants. He wants it all, and asking for ministries others have already spoken for is only a stalling device. He doesn't really want the ministries of Finance, Justice, or Foreign Affairs. What use to him are ministries like Labor, Agriculture, Environment, and Youth & Sports, if every March 14 journalist in Lebanon is waiting to catch the FPM in instances of government graft. His cabinet seats won't even be enough to delay a vote, let alone block anything. He will become just like everyone else.

The Amal people claim Aoun is targeting Future for obvious reasons, but also targeting them because Aoun is angry about the Doha negotiations in which Amal leader and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih al-Berri forced Aoun's hand, and allegedly disrespected the FPM leader. Berri emerged as the leader of Lebanon after the Doha round to a greater extent even than Hezbollah.

Aoun has been parochialized. He no longer has the support powerful Metn MP Michel el-Murr, and is watching President Sleiman steal away Aoun's multi-sectarian support in the military, in Jbeil, and in the Christian community at large. During the next parliamentary elections under the new electoral law, Aoun will undoubtedly lose seats to the local leaders he empowered in 2005, like Murr, Skaff, and Franjieh, lose blocs who supported him in 2005 like Nemattallah Abi Nasr's bloc in Kesrouwan, lose the entire kada of Jbeil to President Sleiman, and watch former loyalists peel off and join with more powerful camps.

Not only this, but Aoun is too old and too senile to envision many more years of dominant power and clout. The FPM cabinet ministers will form their own bases of support separate from Aoun. The TV cameras will flock to them before making the trek to Rabieh. Aoun's own OTV is failing so miserably that it might not be on the air for long if it continues in the same way, and if it changes, Aoun probably won't have nearly as much influence over it.

Aoun thinks of himself too highly to take a minor position like that of a minister. He was commander of the Army, for crying out loud! He has more support than Amine Gemayel or Michel Murr. Gebran Bassil should be his Pierre Gemayel or Elias Murr, while he gives commands from above and accepts visits from ambassadors and foreign dignitaries.

This is a last minute effort to appear powerful and influential, but no one is playing Aoun's games any more. Amal and Hezbollah used Aoun when they needed a Christian spokesman and Christian cover to do Syria's bidding. Now, they no longer need him and are just as irritated at his antics as March 14 figures have been for years.

Aoun has a dream, but he has no idea about how to get there. In the meantime, he is creating nightmares for his countrymen, but he might not even be able to do this for long.

A Modest Proposal: Bringing Question Time to Lebanon

2008-06-02T18:29:00.000-07:00

Nearly all parties in Lebanon claim that their opponents are irresponsible, unjust, and stifle the ability of hardworking politicians to make Lebanon a better place. This happens in every democratic political system. However, unlike in other countries, Lebanese citizens only hear rhetoric without the accompanying evidence.

A great way to prove to the Lebanese people that the Lebanese government is working on their behalf would be to institute the parliamentary mechanism of Question Time.

In Lebanon, unlike in Britain, the government is made up of disparate political factions who use the media, not the parliament, to air grievances. Sadly, this has little effect on governing, but incites violence, sectarian anger, and trepidation in the Lebanese population. The politicians continue to operate as normal, while the Lebanese population changes their personal behaviors, friendships, and economic choices.

To make the Lebanese government more transparent and appear as if it is working on behalf of the electorate, parliamentarians should air their grievances to the prime minister and his cabinet publicly.

Finance Minister Jihad Azour does a phenomenal job. His ministry is the most transparent and is persuading other ministries to follow the same path. Yet, most Lebanese citizens believe that the Finance Ministry is troubled, steals money, and fails to work in the interests of Lebanese citizens. Opponents of Azour nominate buffoons to serve in the post Azour commands brilliantly. Question time will give the public the opportunity to hear Azour’s opponents attack him, and allow Azour to explain that he is doing an excellent job.

Ministers improperly executing their jobs will most likely be motivated to take a more active role in daily ministerial operations. Individuals unqualified to lead a cabinet post might be dissuaded from hubristically demanding a highly complex and important portfolio.

Hopefully, technocrats of all sects and stripes would be the beneficiaries of this mechanism.

Jihad, Jihadi, Jihadist...

2008-06-02T17:32:00.000-07:00

The New York Times has an interesting article by Peter W. Singer and Elina Noor entitled, "What Do You Call a Terror(Jihad)ist?"

They discuss the value of using the term jihadist, and finally decide that terrorist is a better description.

They argue:

IMAGINE if Franklin D. Roosevelt had taken to calling Adolf Hitler the “leader of the National Socialist Aryan patriots” or dubbed Japanese soldiers fighting in World War II as the “defenders of Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.”

...

First, to call a terrorist a “jihadist” or “jihadi” effectively puts any campaign against terrorism into the framework of an existential battle between the West and Islam. This feeds into the worldview propagated by Al Qaeda. It also serves to isolate the tens of millions of Muslims who condemn the violence that has been perpetrated in the name of Islam.

Second, these words locate the ideological battle exactly where the extremists want it to be. The terms of discussion are no longer about the murder of innocents in terrorist acts; they are about theology.

Third, when American leaders use this language it sends a confusing message to the Muslim world, showing ignorance on basic issues and possibly even raising doubts about American motives. Why, after all, would we call our enemy a “holy warrior”?

If we want to say what we mean, what terms better describe Qaeda members and other violent extremists? “Muharib” or the more colloquial “hirabi” or “hirabist” would be good places to start. “Hirabah,” the base word, is a term for barbarism or piracy. Unlike “jihad,” which grants honor, “hirabah” brings condemnation; it involves unlawful violence and disorder.

Of course, it’s probably best not to engage in these nuances at all. Which is why American leaders would do best to call terrorists by their rightful name: “terrorists.” The label may seem passé, but terrorism is an internationally recognized word for an internationally recognized crime. If we want to win a war of words, we would do well to choose the ones we use with greater care.

Spring Beirut Marathon

2008-05-31T21:07:00.000-07:00

The derek zoomed through the streets booming, "Remove your vehicles. Remove your vehicles." The marathon is tomorrow.

How many people will participate? Just Lebanese, most likely - this is not an official international competition.

Will Beiruti get anything in return for the inconvenience of moving theirs cars? Maybe a few extra tourist dollars for the neighborhood dekane...

Regardless, pictures of President Sleiman are everywhere. The Qawmy and Future members in my neighborhood might want to kill each other, but "we are all united for Sleiman," and the symbolism matters.

Fairouz is playing from most shops. However, politics is expressed in the particular song being played. We won't go into the specifics, "Oh, flower from the south, oh, crying bird." For all of you abroad we are playing,"Kifak inta?"

A New Siniora Government

2008-05-28T09:48:00.000-07:00

President Michel Sleiman re-appointed Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

Working too much today, but here's a quick, off-the-cuff reaction about why this is good:

1) it keeps in power a man reknowned for his ability to reconcile fighting factions;

2) it goes a good ways to guarantee that the opposition won't whittle away at the reforms of the previous government;

3) it unites 14 March leaders, and gives the 14 March Coalition bona fides as a unified movement, not just an organization bought and paid for by the Hariri's and Saudi Arabia. Calls for Muhammad Safadi to be elected as premier are being made by the opposition, but are not legitimate. I'm sure that there are plenty of other people who want to be named prime minister, but after the recent conflicts and given that the Future Movement is the majority group in parliament, an experienced prime minister with national support is the best option. The choice is for 14 March to make about the prime minister. It is an internal decision (for more on this, see below);

4) Lebanon needs an experienced prime minister will guarantee to Lebanon's foreign allies, like the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia, that Hezbollah did not mount a coup, despite the changes that occurred.

4) The leader of the government should not be the leader of the Sunni community, for then any removal of him would appear as a slight to the Sunnis as a whole, not removal based on incompetence or for the sake of compromise. The whole of Lebanon is burdened under the weight of Nabih al Berri because the majority of Shia legislators claim that any slight against him is a slight against all Shia, which is ridiculous, but beneficial to both Berri and Hezbollah;

5) If Amal and Hezbollah complain about Siniora being prime minister, then Berri's seat is on the line. The president was a consensus choice, but the prime minister's office is not on the table.
The Sunni and Shia have united around specific factions, and they will not retreat. This is especially true given the way Speaker Berri has failed to do his job and proven to be entirely aligned with Syria and the opposition. The prime minister might not be the leader of the Sunnis, but given the way the Shia have set the table, the PM should at least be appointed by the Sunnis.

6) For the Future Movement:
a. any of Siniora's failings will be blamed on him, not Saad, who is inexperienced and might fail when faced with Lebanon's experienced political class;
b. Siniora can compromise on issues that the Saudis might not want Saad Hariri to compromise on;
c. appointing Siniora shows strength in the face of weakness (remember what happened to Future TV and Beirut).

This is a Sunni-Shia issue. Michel Aoun, Sleiman Franjieh, and Assad Hardane are taking the lead in attacking Siniora. Hezballah/Amal feel the same way as the rest of the opposition, but have to keep their mouths shut or risk putting Berri's job on the line (and there are many qualified Shia within the opposition waiting for this to happen).

Christian Lebanon lost its influence long ago, and a weak president like Sleiman guarantees that the Sunni and Shia will dictate to the president. The choice of Sleiman makes it impossible for the president to have enough power of office or character to moderate between the two sides. He will have to find some independent power base equal to the immense amount of domestic power of Future/Hezbollah/Amal, or take one side.

The Syrians refused a powerful president in Lebanon, because they know that this would open a space for a Christian president to fill the broker position Syria occupied during its reign.

Given that the 1960 electoral law is empowering Franjieh and other Christian zuama, the Christians will lose relevance almost completely and be junior partners in any future parliament or government. Some Christians will side with 14 March and others with 8 March. This will most likely guarantee that the Christians keep the number of seats in parliament allocated to them, and the apportionment in government hiring. Christians represent more than a third of the population, based on multiple estimates, but occupy 50% of parliamentary seats. The Sunni and Shia won't risk uniting all Christians together by bringing up these questions, and the Lebanese agenda will continue to be dictated by the Sunni Mustaqbal and the Shia HA/Amal for the time being.

Beirut Celebrations, Nasrallah Speech

2008-05-26T21:08:00.000-07:00

Lebanese citizens packed Beirut's downtown. It's the most packed I've ever seen it; even more than during the 2005 and 2006 protests, although the area was smaller this time, and the people were more densely packed.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nassrallah spoke earlier in the evening. His speech was truculent and non-conciliatory. It was liberation of the south day, thus a day for tough speeches, but at this crucial moment in Lebanese history, Lebanese people need guidance from their leaders. Men and women of influence need to encourage their followers not to take violent action.

Unfortunately, no Lebanese leader has risen to call for true national reconciliation. The celebrations in the downtown were marred by clashes. Youths fought each other over silly political identities. As these hooligans chanted their silly Hariri, Amal, Hezbollah slogans, no members of their political coalitions stepped in to say, "Bala taefiyyeh, bala siyasiyeh. This is a time for unity and celebration." These youths bullied the crowd, and no one stopped them. When they fought, the Army had to step in.

Sadly, stray bullets after Nasrallah's speech severely injured many Lebanese who currently lie in critical condition in hospital. Clashes broke out between Sunni and Shia in Corniche al Mazraa.

This summer will be profitable, but the peace is superficial.

Regardless, the economic effects of the reconciliation is already being felt. Workers are asking for increased salaries. The downtown is packed with restaurants, which are hiring workers to clean the establishments, and hiring many workers and waiters. Four friends who are waiters tell me that they can make $2,000 a month as waiters in downtown Beirut. They can make $450 an hour at certain pubs and nightclubs on Friday and Saturday nights. They could make even more at places like Sky Bar and Crystal, especially if the Gulf tourists return to Beirut.

Also, downtown appears as a Lebanese (not a Gulf tourist) place. I've never seen so many working class and middle class Lebanese in Beirut's downtown before. In the past, the criticism of the downtown was that the vast majority of Lebanese could not even afford a coffee in the over-priced area. That is no longer true. Aramoun Mini Market between the clock tower and the Greek Catholic Church (currently being rehabilitated) sells reasonably priced merchandise to those who don't want to pay $5 for a Diet Pepsi in one of the downtown's "see and be seen" cafes. It was the most crowded and popular place.

Sleiman's Election

2008-05-25T14:44:00.000-07:00

General Michel Sleiman was just elected president.

Parliamentary Speaker Nabih al Berri stole the limelight, and is behaving as if he is running the show. He is accompanying President Michel Sleiman everywhere, as if he is a child whom Berri must escort around. It's as if he is a North Korean minder. Given that Berri is the Syrian regime's most powerful Lebanese ally, images of assassinated President Rene Muawad keep coming to mind when I think of President Sleiman trying to veer away from Berri.

Berri refused to elect Sleiman in accordance with the Lebanese Constitution, despite protests from 3 Christian legislators, and also Shia legislator Hussein Husseini. Berri singlehandedly makes decisions on the Constitution, it seems. He decided that the Siniora government was unconstitutional, and now he has decided that a senior Lebanese civil servant can be directly elected president, despite the Constitution noting that such a person must be out of office for at least two years prior to being elected president. Even the Syrians followed the Lebanese Constitution when electing and extending the term of former President Emile Lahoud.

Despite the Lebanese Army asking citizens not to fire their weapons in the air in celebration of Sleiman's election, automatic weapons fire can be heard all over Beirut. A journalist friend in the downtown had to hide under a bridge to avoid getting hit by bullets returning to the ground. A bullet landed approximately 2 meters away from him.

The streets of Ras Beirut are empty. However, there is plenty of noise. Televisions tuned to the parliamentary session blare from apartment windows. When Sleiman was elected, clapping could be heard all over.

The Emir of Qatar seems to have assumed the role of protector of Lebanon. The Syrians did a horrible job in that position. In 2005, Lebanese politicians petitioned the United States and Iran to take over Syria's overlordship. Both countries realized that taking such responsibility was not to their benefit. Qatar stepped in, not just to broker between Lebanese politicians, but to bargain with their regional political sponsors: Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab League. It's seems that Qatar's strategy and balancing act - cooperating with Israel and Hezbollah, the United States and Iran - is paying off. They now have a greater regional prominence, but it is yet to be seen if Qatar will gain anything but grief in return.

Opposition Continues Its Shenanigans

2008-05-24T10:15:00.000-07:00

Amal leader and parliamentary speaker Nabih al Berri continues to claim that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government is unconstitutional. To this end, he refuses to allow Siniora into the parliament (Siniora is not an elected member of parliament) to participate in General Michel Sleiman's election.

This entirely undermines the Doha Agreement, which happened partially because the March 14 Coalition believed the opposition would not immediately attack the initiatives of the previous government during this period of national-unity.

Parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri immediately took action. If Siniora is not allowed, then Berri will not have a quorum.

Side note: None of the parties are happy that Michel Sleiman will be elected president. Allegedly, only Michel Murr and the good people of Amchit are content with this decision.

Also, check this YouTube clip for a visual metaphor of the battle between the March 8 and 14 Coalitions.

Political Realignments and New Government Initiatives on the Horizon

2008-05-23T12:16:00.005-07:00

Michael Young offers excellent analysis on the possible realignments of political alliances that could take place in the coming days and months.

Undoubtedly, Sleiman's election will boost the strength of Metn parliamentarian and local zaim Michel el-Murr, and reduce the popularity of Christian parliamentarian Michel Aoun. Sleiman and Aoun have similar bases of support, which will begin to realign themselves.

A few other possible developments:

1) a realignment of Christian politics in north Lebanon. The new electoral law will dramatically empower local zaim Sleiman Franjieh, excite the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, and might allow the return to politics of Orthodox Christian billionaire Issam Fares. March 14 northern Christian figures who will likely try to continue serving in politics - like Boutros Harb, Nayla Mouawad, Elias Attallah, and Farid Mkari, and probably unlike Samir Franjieh - will have to readjust, realign, and perhaps even run in different electoral districts (ie, one March 14 Maronite will align him or herself with the Tripoli Sunni politicians to take the Maronite seat there, which is currently held by Elias Attallah).

2) a realignment of north Lebanon Sunni politics.

a. Tripoli is home to a number of billionaires. Former interim prime minister Najib Miqati mounted a publicity campaign a few months ago, which might be an early effort to return to politics. His portrait can be seen all over the city, often in the company of images of Rafiq al Hariri and the mayor of Tripoli, and sometimes alongside images of executed former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
The Future Movement has strong support in Tripoli, but the coalition of independent Sunni leaders like Miqati and billionaire Muhammad Safadi could force Future to make bigger compromises than in 2005.

b. the Tripoli Sunni billionaires club might push for a larger role in the Lebanese economy. Under Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri, there was talk of making Tripoli into a free-zone similar to that in Dubai's Jebel Ali and what is intended for Aqaba, Jordan. There has been discussion recently of re-opening the Qleiaat Airport, despite a few constraints.

c. The Sunni region of Akkar, close to Tripoli, is Lebanon's poorest, and has the highest birthrates. Many residents of Akkar serve in the Lebanese Army, and they might receive greater attention from President Sleiman and Future leader and possibly soon-to-be prime minister Saad Hariri. Economic aid and government support for Akkar is desperately needed. Of parallel concern is that Akkar and Tripoli are hotbeds of Islamic extremism, including some groups with ideologies similar to Fatah al Islam.

d. The north Lebanon region could become extremely productive very soon. The province of Koura is agriculturally fertile. Tourism to Bcherre, Douma, Batroun, and Tripoli will aid the local economies. Chekka is a major site of industry and concrete production. Minor government efforts for greater transportation and integration between the countryside and Tripoli could spur even greater private investment from the wealthy Lebanese community abroad.

3) if Sleiman is smart, he will start building a support network in Jbeil. Outside of Roger Edde's investments in the city of Jbeil, the rest of the region receives scant attention from the Lebanese government. The Lebanese Ministry of Tourism fails to promote the myriad tourist attractions in the region, like:

a. excellent spelunking, camping, and hiking in Afqa;
b. skiing in Laqlouq;
c. the riverside restaurants in Nahr Ibrahim;
d. development opportunities for the beaches and seaside communities between Byblos and Batroun;
e. the multitude of religious and pilgrimage sites including the Mar Charbel monasteries, and the many Shia religious schools.

4) What will happen in the Bekaa? Unfortunately, I see little hope on the horizon for my region. The area will likely continue stagnating.

a. Hezbollah's security zones will prevent any major real estate development in the region.
b. The Salafists in the central will continue to worry the Christians and Shia.
c. The Armenians in Anjar continue to leave at a steady pace.
d. The Beirut-Damascus highway is still a 2 lane road in many places, and probably won't be a major priority for a number of years.
e. Wine companies continue to pop up and the old standards are increasing production, but unless the alcohol tax and the value-added taxes are reduced on wine exports, the industry will continue to rely on the relatively low level of domestic consumption. Remember that a good portion of the Lebanese population does not consume alcohol, and when they do, it is Almaza, 961 beer, araq, whiskey, and imported wine and spirits. Given the state of the Lebanese economy and the increasing cost of food, wine is not the first concern of most Lebanese shoppers.
One sign of hope: 961 Beer is working with German aid organizations to teach Lebanese farmers in Bekaa to grow hops. Allegedly, this will solve multiple problems simultaneously:
i. provide hops to the nascent Lebanese beer industry;
ii. provide Lebanese farmers with steady revenue from an agricultural product that is currently rising in price and already extremely expensive;
iii. reduce the incentive to grow hashish and other illegal substances. Allegedly, hops is worth more than hashish. Given the legality of the product, the farmers will receive greater local payment, not have to pay protection money to thugs and corrupt officials, reduce alliance on local tough guys, like Hezbollah, and have an incentive to make long-term plans for their farms given that they will no longer have to worry about their crops being burned or their property being seized.

Hezbollah's New Talking Points

2008-05-22T19:35:00.000-07:00

According to a Hezbollah source, after General Michel Sleiman is elected president:

1) the tribunal to try the assassins of former prime minister Rafiq al Hariri will have the full support of Hezbollah and the 8 March parties, and will proceed;

2) the Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails will be released;

3) the Syrians will sign the documents the government of Fouad Siniora sent them that will end any dispute over the ownership of the Shebaa Farms;

4) Hezbollah will reveal their deal with the Israelis over a prisoner exchange;

5) and after these three steps are taken, Hezbollah will integrate its weapons into the Lebanese Army. There will be an armistice with Israel. Hezbollah will no longer fight from south Lebanon, but move its operations, training, and strategies to Gaza and the West Bank.

According to him, the Syrians refused to sign any agreement with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his government, but they will cooperate with Sleiman and the national-unity government.

Hezbollah and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah tell extremely convincing stories. Their narrative is easy to follow, rational, and easy to comprehend. They hit on many themes that are true, like the corruption of some March 14 leaders, and make it appear as if everything would be fine if Hezbollah was in charge. Their members are true believers, and their passion and conviction is evident.

I wish what this man tells me is true. His talking points will please any Lebanese audience. Unfortunately, what is more likely to happen is that Hezbollah will pound these points into everyone's heads, and then they will use a minor excuse - like appointing a certain judge to the tribunal judiciary, or the Future Movement not allowing Michel Aoun to appoint Shia ministers (which is a bad thing, but allegedly happened in 2005) - to cancel everything out.

Who won?

2008-05-21T03:58:00.000-07:00

The 14 March Coalition and the Arab League got a president elected before 2009, the year the Iranians predicted someone would ascend to that office.

The opposition got much more than their request of 1/3 veto wielding power in the Lebanese cabinet of ministers.

Hariri will protect his...ahem, our tribunal. Hezbollah's telephone lines were never really threatened in the first place, which means that their "divine" weapons will remain theirs, not ours.

The most important 14 March goals should be:

1) Complete government transparency;
2) Continue meeting the demands of the Paris-III donor countries.

These two demands will help keep 14 March Coalition members true to their democratic rhetoric and minimize graft within the ranks, while it will be an open threat to opposition ministers that this is not the Syrian era.

The opposition should come up with some goals of their own.

I'd love to see a war of ministries in which one ministry monitors another to make sure that it is transparent.

I would also love to see 8 March leaders force out a corrupt 14 March minister, and likewise.

The goal right now for Lebanese citizens is to make sure that the Lebanese government is working for the people, and prove that the government is not just an agreement between rich, gun-wielding fat cats who turn a blind eye on each others corrupt activities.

All Over?

2008-05-21T03:41:00.000-07:00

The Doha negotiations were never meant to solve everything. They were meant to stall the violence until after the summer tourist season is over.

Lebanon now has a concensus president to provide legitimacy to Lebanese "democracy." Now, all Lebanese leaders can appeal to their foreign sponsors for more money. The businesses owned by these same leaders will profit from the Lebanese community abroad and brave foreign tourists who descend on Beirut this summer to party before the fighting starts again.

At least civilian lives will be spared...

My prediction: there won't be major clashes until the late fall. In late September or October, grumbling will begin. Then, some group will threaten to take to the streets. Then, a protest will occur, but it won't get violent. However, the government will be deadlocked, and everyone will be unhappy.

In November, Syrian and Iranian leaders will watch the American elections closely, and then listen to statements from the victor. They will begin planning, but won't take action until Bush is safely out of office and does not have the authority to go to war.

January 2009, tensions will increase, most of it having to do with the electoral law and the timing of the elections.

Then again, this is Lebanon. No one expected Nahr al Bared. Something else might pop up this summer.

The Doha Negotiations

2008-05-19T16:36:00.000-07:00

The Lebanese press should have been banned from Qatar. Lebanese politicians should have been banned from calling the Lebanese press from their Qatar hotel rooms.

Negotiations are occuring in Qatar, and in negotiations the participating parties use strategies and tactics to win concessions. Inflaming Lebanese civilians and using the biased and propaganda spinning Lebanese media to effect the outsome of negotiations is only harmful to Lebanon, and a useless ploy against the other negotiating parties who all have media outlets of their own.

Politics is Lebanon's national drama, and all I've heard over the last few days are people commenting on the different tactics in Doha, and deciding to take some action in Beirut based on what they hear on the radio. It is ridiculous.

Minute by minute accounts don't matter. Keep it secret, and let some aide to Elie Skaff make a million dollars publishing a behind-the-scenes account of the events in a book published this August.

The blame game shouldn't happen in the middle of negotiations. Of course, one side will be mad at one point, and the other side will counter and make an entirely different group angry. That's what happens during negotiations. In the rest of the world, there is no Syria to step in and decide when it's time to stop debating. It is not acceptable to leave the office of the president vacant.

The point of negotiations is to figure out a way to live and work together. If that is not possible, then start figuring out a way for us not to have to live together, but do not come back without a decision that leaves us civilians in sectarian jeopardy. Do not fail to agree on something and then sacrifice our lives for your tribunals, "Divine" weapons, ministries of theft, presidencies you think belong only to you, and the foreign overlords who give you money and weapons.

Covering Lebanon

2008-05-19T09:32:00.001-07:00

It is difficult to cover Lebanon. Most Lebanese don't understand their country. Political parties mount disinformation campaigns. Politicians claim one thing publicly, but do another. Other politicians make a proposal to provoke a response out of an opponent so that the politician can do something different than what is proposed today. Many political analysts and university professors are aligned with political movements and publish extremely biased polling data and articles in which they don't even get the facts right.

The LA Times tries to explore myriad facets of the Middle East. I regularly read their blog Babylon & Beyond. The blog covers myriad topics that rarely receive attention. Recently, I took the LAT to task for insinuating that a Sunni militia fought against Hezbollah during the recent clashes. They investigated the story further.

According to the general definition of "militia," one can argue that there was a Sunni militia. A group of armed men tried to protect their area. However, there are a few problems with publishing an article that says this:

1) the word "militia" in Lebanon is highly politicized. This should come as no surprise given the history of the Lebanese civil war.

Amal gunmen marauded through the streets of Beirut, but were in high dudgeon over al-Arabiya referring to these gunmen taking over neighborhoods in a planned manner within a supervised hierarchy as a militia. If Amal, which was actively controlling and possessing Beirut neighborhood, looting private property, and preventing the free movement of citizens, took issues with the word "militia," then might the Future Movement, which did not participate in fighting in the same kind of coordinated way as Hezbollah, Amal, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party?

Hezbollah's al-Manar TV routinely referred to their armed allies in the streets as "parties," whereas they referred to other political parties as "militias." The Future Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party, and the Lebanese Forces (which had nothing to do with anything that occured in the streets of Beirut last week) were described as militias, not parties, even though they did not invade anyone.

2) the implications of the word "militia." Hezbollah is, without a doubt, a well-trained militia. It is better equipped and more capable than the Lebanese Army, however, it is a militia because the democratically elected Lebanese government does not control it and has no power over it. In fact, Hezbollah has a large degree of control over the Lebanese government.

If Hezbollah can portray other parties in Lebanon as militias, then it has a better chance of justifying its own existence. If Hezbollah and its allies are the only armed factions, then it becomes much more difficult to justify possessing those weapons, especially when the weapons are being used to undermine the authority of the Lebanese government, Army, police, and other institutions. Many Hezbollah supporting friends cited the LAT piece to justify their claims about Saad Hariri having a militia.

3) coordination and training. Lebanon has a brisk economy around security companies. These are not Israeli, South African, British SAS, Blackwater style security companies that pay their employees hundreds of thousands of dollars to do whatever is necessary to protect billionaires and oil rigs. These are companies that provide minimum wage security guards to pat down men's waistbands and inspect women's purses. They also use little television antennas on sticks to screen cars for explosive chemicals (which I've been told by a UN security official are not effective).

SecurePlus is a Sunni owned security firm. It does not provide paramilitary training. The security guards they train do not even carry guns.

It is unfair to portray SecurePlus as being on the same level as Hezbollah, which has myriad training camps, launches wars and operations, and actively cooperates with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Whether the LAT wanted to or not, it entered into a dangerous Lebanese debate and aided the arguments of one side against another without helping to illuminate the truth.

Were there Sunni gunmen on the streets of Beirut? Yes.

Did they invade other neighborhoods? No, they primarily tried to protect their areas.

Were they trained to fight wars? No, the 8 year old with a gun on a motorscooter killed by Hezbollah fighters was not trained. He aimed his weapon at an invading force because the Army and police refused to do so. His community and leaders recognized that the actions the boy took were wrong and said so publicly, unlike the leaders of the men who killed the child.

Can the Sunni gunmen launch a war against Israel, should they choose? No, they have kalashnikovs, but did not appear to have the sophisticated telecommunications devices Hezbollah used. They do not have their own phone network to use in fighting against other Lebanese and Israel.

Could Sunni gunmen run through the streets of Beirut misbehaving the way Amal and the SSNP did? Sure, but the Lebanese Army would stop them. They would probably need the cover that Hezbollah provided Amal and the SSNP to get away with similar lunacy.

The Psychological Effects of War

2008-05-18T15:30:00.000-07:00

I have no concrete evidence of what I claim; only the anecdotes of friends and associates. Given that aid organizations and academics have yet to fully chronical the effects of the 2006 war, I think anecdotal evidence will have to do for now.

Clenched Jaws and Chipped Teeth
I have heard many occurences of jaw problems. Some residents of Beirut are clenching their teeth to the degree that it hurts to chew. I have heard many reports of jaw aches. A couple I know say each separately wake up at night because their spouse is grinding his/her teeth so loudly.

A dentist told me that he is making many nightguards and repairing chipped teeth. He claims that Lebanese are giving themselves long-term tooth and jaw damage from stress. A friend started wearing a mouthguard when he runs because he can't stop clenching his jaw. He already chipped away half a tooth.

Pills
A friend of mine in Hamra can't sleep. His mother and sister can't sleep, either. Abed is a leftist, environmentalist, and skeptic, so he refuses to medicate. The rest of his family take pills. They can't sleep without them.

Muhammad tells me that his aunt started taking pills on the first Thursday of the conflict. She began to take more as the gun battles got louder. Now, he claims, she is addicted.

An American professor at the American University of Beirut realized that she could not cope with the situation. She couldn't escape, and the worries and pressure from her family in the US was too much to bear on top of the horrible situation she was living in. She went to the pharmacy the first day it was open and bought a batch of what she claims is valium, although that is not what the bottle states. In Lebanon, one does not need a prescription to buy extremely powerful, mind altering drugs. She is now accustomed to taking them. She offers them to her friends. Some of them take the drugs without ever having consulted a doctor or pharmacist about the actual effects and side-effects of what they are throwing down their throats.

Nightmares
It is not even worth cataloguing the number of nightmares I've heard from others. Almost everyone I know tells me about a dream they've had recently. I've had many awkward and disturbing dreams, as well. I tend to have political dreams. Throughout the 2006 war, I often dreamt of myself as a member of the Lebanese cabinet trying to resolve the conflict. This time, I dream about being in a vibrant city, but there being a massive conflict (often involving a gargantuan flood of water) occuring in the distance.

Some of the dreams of my friends are too disturbing to recount. Many of them involve lots of blood, dead bodies, and death. A Dutch woman tells me that she has dreams about saving her young daughter from dark, shadowy, faceless enemies. Another man dreams that he is a member of a South African private security corporation of ninjas that descends on Beirut and secretly and quietly kills all armed factions and corrupt politicians.

Drugs and Alcohol
The consumption of alcohol has gone up steeply. Many of my friends are no longer having one or two drinks at pubs. They are going to the liquor store and buying entire cases of beer, or bottles of spirits. Often, the entire quantity is gone by the end of the night. Many people report to have had constant hangovers for the last two weeks. They arrive at work late, and feel horrible for half of the next day. Many say that it now takes quite a bit more alcohol to achieve the same effect.

Many normally staid and professional people are now talking openly about using cocaine, hashish, and ecstasy. These substances are illegal in Lebanon, but are quite easy to acquire. When I asked an acquaintance of an acquaintance if he was worried if he would get caught smoking hashish openly in the streets (he claimed to have smoked it while walking down the Corniche al Mazraa boulevard), he said, "If they try and arrest me for smoking a joint, I'll scream at them and say, 'Why the f*** didn't you arrest the people firing RPGs last week?'"

Those using cocaine, unsurprisingly, note a difficulty sleeping. Those using the other substances say they are trying to mentally escape.

As for me, my consumption of araq (aniseed flavored liquor similar to raki, ouzo, sambucca, and pastis) has increased slightly. I don't know if this is a result of the conflict or because a friend's father gave me a gallon jug of the substance. However, I've been self-moderating. :)

I normally deal with stress by working more. This probably isn't healthy in the long run, but I'll solve that problem when I take a vacation...if I take a vacation. No, I'm not married....

Weight Gains/Loss
Friends have visibly changed. Some people have gained significant amounts of weight. Others stopped eating, and look sickly thin and exhausted.

Conclusion
Many Lebanese, myself included, argue that this technically short conflict did far more psychological damage than the 34 day 2006 war. Civil wars are much harder psychologically than wars with "the other."

One comedian performing the other night argued, "How is that the country that produces the best quality hashish in the world decides it needs to fight all the time? Isn't hash supposed to chill you out? People from all over the world travel to Amsterdam to smoke Lebanese blonde and red. People travel to Beirut to fight. Shouldn't they travel here to smoke up and feel "ja love"? The Israelis love Lebanese hash. Come on, guys, we can beat the Israelis at this... Why do we have to fight all the time? Have you ever seen someone high on hash fight?"

Life is returning to normal, but the scars are still visible.

Update: For a stunning distraction from Lebanon, check out this link a friend sent me.

Arab League Delegation Creates Path to Resolution

2008-05-15T12:49:00.000-07:00

The Arab League negotiated between pro-government and opposition forces to create a 6-point plan:

1) Things must return to what they were before May 5, 2008: the government must respond to the Army Command statement and hand the two decisions over to the army; All arms must be withdrawn from the streets and all roads, the Rafik Hariri International Airport and the Beirut Seaport reopened; and the Lebanese army must take charge of national security and civil peace.

2) There must be agreement on returning to dialogue on the national-unity government and electoral law. This agreement must be crowned by the end of the sit-in the eve Army Commander General Michel Sleiman is announced as a consensus candidate for presidency.

3) The (Lebanese) dialogue will begin as soon as the clause 1 is implemented, on Friday May 16, 2008 in Doha.

4) All parties must promise to refrain from returning to arms or violence to achieve political ends.

5) The dialogue is to reinforce the rule of the Lebanese government on all Lebanese lands … for the security of the state and its citizens.

6) Political leaders will end their use of political and sectarian incitement and accusations of treachery at once.

Unfortunately, it seems like March 14 leaders will end up making large concessions.

The call for dialogue immediately, beginning tomorrow, puts the opposition in an advantageous position. The pro-government factions need to meet, strategize, and come up with a solution to face the opposition's demands. The opposition does not negotiate genuinely, and constantly changes their demands. Their only interest is placing obstacles in the path of the pro-government factions.

Supposedly, the opposition will receive its veto-wielding 1/3 of the cabinet, and will be able to block any decision the government takes. The 14 March Coalition will agree to this because it believes that the government created in Doha, Qatar will only be temporary, before 14 March claims a massive victory in the next parliamentary elections Their goal is to placate the opposition, but not allow the opposition to take power and undue all of the 14 March initiatives that came into existence since the creation of the government in 2005.

Allegedly, Future Movement leader Saad Hariri only cares about the Justice Ministry. The 14 March factions no longer care about the ministries of Interior and Defense. The forces under the command of these ministries, which are currently headed by members of the 14 March Coalition, refused to protect Beirut and protect the government they are sworn to serve.

The Finance Minister Jihad Azour is one of the best ministers in the government. He is a technocrat, but as he is a current member of the government, he is perceived as a 14 March member. Many 14 March leaders commented to me something to the extent of, "Why should we care about balancing the budget and sticking to the prerogatives of the Paris III accords, if the opposition denies any of the efforts to stabilize the economy?"

Most likely, technocrats like Culture Minister Tarek Mitri will disappear, and politicians with extensive experience in graft and corruption will take their places.

Observations and Hypotheses About the Situation in Lebanon

2008-05-15T04:28:00.000-07:00

1) It seems like Hezbollah and the opposition are backing down. Hezbollah achieved its goal, and is currently willing to negotiate. Will they bully the government using a threat of violence, again? Most definitely.

Given that Qatar leads the Arab League delegation, it seems the Qatari balancing act - often perceived as pro-Syrian and Iranian bias - might offer at least some sort of agreement. Rumor has it that Qatar is representing Iranian interests more than the Syrian interests. I heard one claim today from a Future analyst that Iran and Hezbollah are upset with the Syrian regime, and that the Iranians do not want a fight between Sunni and Shia in Lebanon, which has already had regional implications. Obviously, given I have only one somewhat knowledgeable source, I have no idea if this is true.

2) I hear rumors from friends of friends in the south that Hezbollah is taking up strategic positions in the area and taking territory they previously did not have on the border. Some of these places are in Christian towns. Could Hezbollah be negotiating with the government now because it knows it will attack Israel which will rain down devastation next week, paralyzing the government, and giving Hezbollah full control of foreign policy, the means of violence, and media airtime? Who knows?

Where is Unifil? They are working within the confines of United Nations bureaucracy, ie not fulfilling their mandate, but supplying plenty of vetrinary care to the livestock in the region and free karate lessons to the youth.

3) Hezbollah initially came out to "support" the unions protesting the minimum wage and the price of food. I have not noticed a price increase, yet, but given that the border, the airport, and the ports have been closed, I would assume that demand for foodstuffs is quickly outpacing supply, thus the prices will soon rise. An employee with the Lebanese Ministry of Finance mentioned last night that Lebanon imports many food sources, including most of its grain. Bread is a significant staple of the Lebanese diet, and is the first supply to run out whenever conflict arises, as it did in Beirut during this conflict on the first day residents could leave their houses, and as it did during the opening days of the 2006 war.

4) The failures of Lebanese and Palestinian democracies might begin to fuel pro-regime, Islamic treatises on behalf of dictatorship and against democratic reform. Conservative Muslims normally cite Quran and Hadith to say that tyranny is better than revolution, because in revolution there is chaos, and chaos is what must absolutely be avoided. The chaos and disgusting behaviors that occured in Beirut and Gaza could easily support regime claims about stability and preserving the Islamic way of life.

Given the success of Dubai, it seems like Arab regimes are moving toward Plato's philosopher king model, or Machiavelli's educated prince (Qatar's scheming Sheikh Hamad?) more than anything else.

This argument on behalf of dictatorship also plays into the patronizing realist worldview in which it is better to negotiate with a strongman regime who supports one's views than to support democracy in which there is no predictable outcome. This argument is obviously also based on the assumption that the negotiating party is in a position of greater power than the totalitarian regime.

The Truth About Hezbollah's Allegiances

2008-05-14T20:10:00.000-07:00

There are divisions between Hezbollah, Amal, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Sources from each political group told me about their anger with the others.

Hezbollah often likes to blame all of their evils on others, normally Amal. They love to claim that Amal members are thieves and brigands who would steal from their own mothers. They become emotional explaining the divisions between Amal and Hezbollah, saying that there is still great enmity between the two groups. Yet, every time something major happens in Lebanon there is Hezbollah walking hand in hand with Amal.

Hezbollah loves to claim that SSNP members are thugs. They claim that Hezbollah is professional and merely took over the neighborhoods, but it was the SSNP thugs who went around stealing, harassing neighborhoods, and shooting up businesses they don't like. Hezbollah members claim that they have problems with the Syrian regime and claim that there is no way they will allow the Syrians back in to rule Lebanon, because, "We hate them. We know, more than anyone else, how bad they were to Lebanon and Lebanese. They treated us like animals. There is no way that Hezbollah, which is more powerful than it ever was underneath the Syrians who negotiate with Israel, will ever go back to living under them. Syria is an ally, but will never be Hezbollah's boss." Yet, SSNP members run through Beirut neighborhoods putting up pictures of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Hezbollah supporters say, "We do not like these pictures being put up. They are very bad. This is Lebanon, not Syria. The SSNP and Amal will be very happy if Syria returns. We do not believe this at all."

Hezbollah, even after undermining Lebanese democracy and security by invading Lebanese territory in collaboration with Amal and the SSNP, continues to claim it is only fighting for Lebanon and for the Lebanese people. Everything that is bad is blamed on Amal and the SSNP.

Hezbollah and its members love to talk about how good and just Hezbollah is. They love to claim that Hezbollah members are men of God who will not do anything evil and corrupt. Then, why do they cooperate with assassins, thieves, and thugs?

Hezbollah loves to tell everyone about how powerful they are. Their leaders love to claim that they can take over Lebanon before other leaders even know what has happened. They love to point out, as Naim Qassem did, that the Shia population is nearly a third of the Lebanese population, perhaps more. They love to project their power democratically, militarily, and through their media propaganda outlets. Why is it, then, that they need such horrible allies that they themselves claim are horrible allies? Why this visible, on-the-ground cooperation? Why make positive proclamations about pure Syrian allies without popular support, like Talal Arslan and Wiam Wahhab, as if these figures will be future Nobel Peace Prize Laureates?

Parliamentary elections? Amal and SSNP are on Hezbollah's list.

Political ideologies? In practice, Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP vote along the same lines once elected into office, and boycott the exact same meetings.

Riots? Guess who all comes out together? Guess who got center stage during the 8 March 2005 "thank you, Syria" rally?

Application of the law? Hezbollah, Amal, and SSNP all abuse state authority and prefer to deal with anything through political connections, undermining the Lebanese government. Hezbollah polices its own areas, and illegally kidnaps foreigners and Lebanese policemen. Hezbollah and Amal block positive developments for the people of Ouzai who are in desperate need of a sewage system. Hezbollah has not once objected to the way their allies pilfer state coifers. Even though they love to attack pro-government parties for civil war era abuses and Syrian era graft, al Manar has not once complained about the massacres Amal committed against the Palestinians during the civil war, or the enormous sums of money Amal, SSNP, and other allied leaders took from the Lebanese government.

Hezbollah may claim to hate Amal and the SSNP groups in order to maintain its holier than though image, but years of cooperation display the diametric opposite.

Hezbollah Gathering Intelligence on Supporters of Government

2008-05-14T19:42:00.000-07:00

Hezbollah stole computer hard drives and organizational papers from many Future Movement offices. An SSNP source claims, "Hezbollah now has the names, addresses, and phone numbers of many members of the Future Movement and other supporters. This information will be used against Future supporters soon." I also heard corroborating information from a European diplomat.

A Future Movement friend recently had an SSNP friend recount his evening events for him: "You left Sakiet Jinzeer from Pain d'Or at 4pm with a friend. You went to Jal ad Dib, and then to Sassine. You went to a pub in Hamra and met with another person. You arrived at home at 11pm. They know who you are."

The SSNP source argues, "If they don't come to an agreement soon, this country will become Rwanda. The Amal and Future people are all poor. They don't care about what they are doing. They want violence just to be violent. They will kill for $100 or less. You saw what happened in Halba. You see the 15 year olds running through the streets with assault rifles. There are no laws in Lebanon, now. This is anarchy, and the one who has the gun does what he wants."

Hezbollah got what it wanted from the government. After the Lebanese Cabinet chose to rescind its decisions on removing the head of airport security and removing Hezbollah's telephone network, Hezbollah controlled areas lit up with machine gun fire.

According to other sources, Hezbollah will push for more concessions by the government. However, the government has red lines it will not cross. If Hezbollah then decides to push for more, or worse, if Hezbollah decides to invade the Grand Serail and literally take the Lebanese Cabinet ministers hostage, then the Army will immediately split, and Lebanon will face war.

There is very little optimism in the streets of Beirut.

Civil Disobedience

2008-05-14T08:31:00.000-07:00

Obviously, I'm angry about Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP's invasion of Beirut. They continue to claim that their armed attack is "civil disobedience." Obviously, they are not familiar with satyagraha and Dr. King.

However, I'm in a quandary regarding my fellow residents of Beirut.

1) Should we go back to our normal lives and not allow the brigands to stop us from doing what we choose? This would be a true act of non-violent civil disobedience in the face of menacing threats.

2) Should we keep business closed and huddle in our homes to prevent from giving an excuse to the brigands to become more violent and to save ourselves?

My friends and I are following the first track. We are continuing our lives, documenting the atrocities, and being active members of our communities. We aren't going to let the people who terrorized us stop us from doing what we need to do.

The vast majority of other people in Beirut are following the second path.

Situation in Christian Areas

2008-05-14T08:22:00.000-07:00

The Christian areas between Beirut's Christian district of Ashrafieh and the northern Christian Lebanese city of Batroun are stable and relatively unaffected by the current events elsewhere in the country.

According to friends in the Chouf, the atmosphere is tense. There are still more reports coming out of the Chouf as to what happened and is happening. One of the main reasons why very little has been reported on this battle is because Hezbollah did not allow film crews into the area. Al-Arabiya and the BBC were the only networks covering the conflict, and both did so from behind Druze lines.

Eerie Feelings in Beirut

2008-05-13T18:29:00.001-07:00

Beirut is dead.

At11pm, Gemmayze, one of Beirut's central night neighborhoods, closed up shop.

The late night places in Hamra, like De Prague, Barometre, Regusto (formerly, Chez Andre) and Evergreen, closed as well.

This is not the Beirut I know.

What's happening in the Chouf, now

2008-05-13T10:25:00.001-07:00

Supposedly, 300 Druze shuyukh (sheikhs) supported the Druze community in the regions around Choueifat and Aley.

Now, I hear reports that Hezbollah intelligence is searching the region for military age males. According to a friend from Deir Qoubel, many of these men, fathers and providers for their families, have fled to guarantee their safety.

Supposedly, Hezbollah is extremely upset about their loss in the Chouf, and particularly that their soldiers were not only killed, but captured, which is a much bigger dishonor. One friend from Aley suggests, Hezbollah is trying to track down Druze to both take revenge and to kidnap to use as a bargaining chips with the Druze community, which killed many Hezbollah invading fighters and captured two others, along with, allegedly, two Iranian observers.

One of the major rumors floating around is that a plane from Iran landed at the Rafiq Hariri International Airport after it was closed. I have no doubt if this is true, or if it is pro-government disinformation.

While Hariri Spoke

2008-05-13T07:53:00.000-07:00

While Hariri spoke, Amal's NBN TV broadcast images of dead bodies from the Halba battles. It appears that Lebanese Sunni committed this horrific crime and must be held responsible for their actions. However there is no evidence that Saad Hariri ordered the attack. Whereas Hezbollah, Amal, and SSNP leadership is definitely responsible for the terrorism, chaos, deaths, and murders that took place in Beirut. They must be held responsible for their crimes, and must re-pay the Lebanese people, businesses, and government for the harm and destruction they caused.

Bobby Worth of the New York Times covers the Chouf war.

Future Back On Air

2008-05-13T06:53:00.000-07:00

Future TV is back on air. Future CEO Nadim al Munla is on, and Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi is calling in, at the moment.

A technician is showing the torn and cut Future TV cables and where equipment was broken and stolen.

Future Movement leader Saad Hariri is now giving a speech. He just called for a moment of silence. He's speaking from Koreitem.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad has been giving a speeching, which is still going on.

Tayyar.org forums has a report on the massacre that occured in Halba in north Lebanon. According to the report, Future Movement members massacred members of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.

As I posted during the conflict, Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP attacks inflamed sectarian and political feelings in the country. The atrocities visited on the residents of Beirut inflamed the Sunni in the north who are taking out their feelings of powerlessness on SSNP members in the north who did not participate in the attacks in Beirut, but ideologically support the violence that occured in Beirut and who support a return of Syrian occupation to Lebanon.

Getting Accurate Information During Conflict

2008-05-13T02:53:00.000-07:00

Much of the information on television is propaganda or psy-ops.

Hezbollah uses it's media network, just like it's telephone network, for militant purposes. They feel little interest in uncovering the truth. Instead, they announce entirely inaccurate and false information to destroy the morale of their opponents.

Hezbollah also prevents other media outlets from reporting from areas they control, like al-Arabiya, which they have not only imprisoned, but banned from cable providers in their areas.

Future News is not on the air, and other channels seem more interested in broadcasting stupid speeches from third-rate Syrian era politicians than in reporting on the battles, the needs of the people, or providing specific information on which roads are opened/closed.

Much of the information being published comes from word-of-mouth accounts strung together, but not necessarily accurate. I know about my part of Hamra, and was chatting with others throughout the conflict to find out what was happening in the blocks around me, and in areas further afield. However, there are few ways to double-check the accuracy of the reports, particularly given that many accounts are emotion filled.

In the North and Chouf, entire villages took part in conflicts, thus increasing the eyes on the scene able to provide accurate accounts of what happened. The battles took place over a wider area, but there were fewer buildings, and especially fewer tall buildings, than in the crowded neighborhoods of Beirut.

Hopefully, we will get a few accurate reports with specifics. Every day, more information is coming in adding to details about what happened in Beirut and reframing it.

What Really Happened in the Chouf

2008-05-12T14:07:00.000-07:00

The Druze community in the Chouf utterly defeated Hezbollah's attack.

On the very first night of Chouf combat, the Druze community in Aley armed with hunting rifles, kalashnikovs, and a few RPGs killed approxiamately 21 Hezbollah soldiers and captured two others. In a later conflict, Iranian "observers" were captured in Aley, according to a local source.

One scholar and educator from the Druze community explains, "Every man, young and old, came out to defend Aley. We only had the weapons in our houses. Some older men had civil war era weapons, like RPGs, but there were not many of them. I had no idea my community would be so spirited in its own defense.... Druze defend Druze. We were not fighting for our own lives, but the continuation our community."

In the village Deir Qoubel, the entire male population of the village came out to defend the town with hunting rifles and anything else available. According to a local source, the townspeople killed 11 Hezbollah attackers. One member of the community sustained injuries. The townspeople had the high ground and know the terrain well. Many people in the region are experienced hunters, mostly of small birds.

I assume that the Hezbollah fighters were not wearing body armor. From what I observed in Beirut, the Hezbollah fighters did not wear body armor there, either. However, their equipment is modern and sophisticated, and their tactics are well honed.

Druze members of the Hezbollah allied Syrian Social Nationalist Party sided with their community against their political ally. One Druze SSNP member argues, "when your guard dog becomes too powerful, you need to think about putting it to sleep." This was a war for survival.

Thirteen Hezbollah vehicles invaded the Chouf from the Bekaa Valley, but were captured in Barouk and Niha. Barouk is one of Lebanon's few wildlife sanctuaries. The sanctuary is a pet project of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and his wife Nora, who is of Shia origins. It is one of the few places in Lebanon where the Cedar of Lebanon grows; thus it is a symbolic site for both the Druze leader and Lebanon. Niha is where the Druze religious leader the Sheikh al Aql lives. It is a religious pilgrimage site, Naby Ayoub, or St. Job. Hezbollah attacked a holy place, and were rightly prevented from committing acts of violence there.

According to media reports, the Druze community dragged out World War II era 160 millimeter shells to defend themselves. Friends living in Dahieh report that they observed the Druze descending down the mountain towards Hezbollah dominated Dahieh. She claims that ordinance (but unsure of what type) hit Dahieh and set off car alarms in her area. Many local residents fled. The Druze community made sure that Hezbollah knew that the Shia community, too, is vulnerable to attack. The only way Lebanon will remain stable, and the only way for Lebanese to live in peace is if Lebanese participate in true representative democracy and do not overturn the institutions of the state and endanger the lives of other communities.

According to a source close to the Arslan family, many supporters of pro-Syrian, pro-Hezbollah Druze leader Talal Arslan are moving away from the leader. Just like the SSNP members who sided with their communities over their political allegiances, the supporters of Arslan realize that no one will protect the Druze villages if they do not protect themselves. This is no longer an issue of politics, but one of survival.

According to Tony Badran's sources, pro-Syrian Druze leader Wi'am Wahhab and his followers have fled the Chouf and are unlikely to be allowed back. They turned on their community in its time of need.

The Druze have closed ranks. They know that no one will protect their community if they don't do it themselves. Druze know that their leader, Walid Jumblatt, like his father before him, serves three roles:
1) as the most competent and able leader of his community;
2) as a Lebanese leader;
3) as a progressive leader.

His role as a national leader prevented him from publicly endorsing the Druze community's justified campaign against Hezbollah's invasion. Jumblatt did his best to provide national and international safety and legitimacy to his community, and publicly called for peace and an end to violence. He asked for Druze unity, and ordered his supporters to turn their weapons over to pro-Syrian, pro-Hezbollah leader Talal Arslan, who took this as an opportunity to aggrandize himself giving myriad interviews, and claiming that the Chouf supports the resistance and are people of the resistance. Note that Arslan only asked the Druze community to relinquish their weapons to him, but made no demands on Hezbollah, even though it was Hezbollah who attacked the Druze community, of which Arslan is a member.

Jumblatt's community, which followed his orders completely in Beirut, knew they could not let the Chouf fall, and knew the difficult political situation Lebanon currently faces.

The Sunnis cannot and will not stop Hezbollah. Sunni supporters in the Arab world never provide the amount of support Lebanon needs. The Sunni regimes, unlike the Shia Iranian regime and the Alawite Syrian regime, are never willing to make sacrifices to get what they want. Even more worrying for the Druze, will any of the regional religious powers make sacrifices for the Druze if the community is on the verge of annihilation?

The Lebanese Christian community does not have enough internal unity or external support to insure the Druze community that it will be protected. The Druze and the Christians still have festering problems left over from the civil war, as well.

As a friend noted, the feeling in the Druze community is, "all we can do now is refuse any political concessions to Hizbullah linked to the violence, arm ourselves to the teeth, and wait to see the international reaction." He continues, "There is a sense that the Hezb does not want the Druze to be part of the Lebanese equation," especially given Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's anti-Jumblatt remarks immediately prior to his militant takeover of Beirut. "Every step they have taken, given all the fronts they have opened, indicate this."

A Future for the US Funded Lebanese Army?

2008-05-12T10:09:00.000-07:00

In 2005, US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said that she understood the dynamic in Lebanon and, as such, the United States would not call for the immediate disarmament of Hezbollah. Instead, the United States would work to strengthen Lebanese government institutions.

The Internal Security Forces received brand new equipment, and many officers were trained in the United States.

The Lebanese Army has a long-standing relationship with the US military: generals Michel Aoun, Emile Lahoud, and Michel Sleiman have all received training in the United States. Even during the Syrian occupation, the United States was the number one provider of military assistance to Lebanon.

After the Syrian withdrawal, the US increased the amount of aid and technical assistance it provides the Lebanese Army. During the war between the Lebanese Army and Fatah al Islam in Nahr al Bared, the United States provided Lebanon with most of its ammunition, humvees, airplanes, and other supplies. Lebanon's other supposed allies Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and France provided Lebanon with little to no military assistance.

However, as Lee Smith points out, the United States might be thinking twice about providing the Lebanese Army with any more munitions in the future. Despite three years of assistance, the Lebanese Army remains more in the position of a caretaker than as an active military force capable of preventing violence and defending the country from chaos.

The Next War with Israel

2008-05-12T07:20:00.001-07:00

Whenever Hezbollah and Israel clash, the residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley flee those regions, and seek refuge in Beirut and the Chouf mountains. The vast majority of these refugees are Shia.

Within the last year, NOW Lebanon ran a story on Lebanese Shia fears that other Lebanese communities will not take them in after the destruction and undemocratic behavior of Hezbollah's 2006 war and the heightening tensions over the Lebanese government, cabinet, and presidency. In 2006, many Shia were angry with the less-than-hospitable, but good enough reception they received. The increased political tensions after the war made them fear reprisals during the next conflict, which led many Shia with money to buy property in Syria.

After this conflict, it seems that the residents of Beirut and the Chouf will not think twice before denying aid and shelter to the Shia community. The Shia community voted Amal and Hezbollah into power and, according to Hezbollah, the vast majority of Shia support the "resistance."

Hezbollah attacked the Sunni and Druze communities. They have killed innocent civilians and terrorized all residents of Beirut. The anger at Hezbollah and their supporters is palpable.

This issue was brought to my attention by MarxistfromLebanon who writes, "if the opposition thinks the rift is closed with the logic of "freeing the Sunnis from the Future Movement," there is one scary reply quote I got: "Let them see who will open their homes when Israel hits them again." Will this be the new retaliation form of sectarianism?"

Sunni Militia?

2008-05-12T03:45:00.000-07:00

Who is the fixer for the LA Times in Beirut? Why is the LA Times feeding into the anti-government, pro-Hezbollah propaganda machine?

This story is a lame attempt to make it seem like the Sunni pro-government Future Movement had a militia fighting against Hezbollah. Despite what is written at the beginning of the article, the author somewhat comes clean about what she insinuates by noting towards the end that Sunni security for leader Saad Hariri were not even allowed to have guns.

The author tries to paint security company Secure Plus as something akin to Blackwater. The truth is that Secure Plus is a glorified private security company. They train their staff to a greater extent than security guards who monitor parking garage cameras, but do not train them in military tactics on how to launch RPGs and take and control terrain, similar to Hezbollah. Given the number of assassinations in Beirut in recent history, these guards are trained in evasive maneuvers in order to get their leader out of a bind quickly. These tactics often involve a lot of pushing and fast driving.

Hariri's private security does not have the training or experience to take on an army.

USS Cole Coming to Beirut?

2008-05-11T16:13:00.001-07:00

Lebanese media is claiming that the USS Cole just passed through the Suez Canal. They are claiming that the ship is on the way to the Lebanese coast.

Friends on Facebook chat tell me that they think this will just hand Hezbollah another propaganda victory. A political analyst with the Quantum Group says that this is a good development and will put Hezbollah and Syria in their place. He suggests that the US hit Syria, not Lebanon.

Lebanese have no idea what is going on. We are left trying to figure out what to do next.

Lebanese all must be political analysts to figure out what to do next: risk one's life fleeing for the mountains, or stay for the ceasefire? Invest in a business opportunity, or put all one's money in a French bank?

Some news sources estimate that over 100 people have been killed. For what?

Fighting Dies Down, and Media Strategies

2008-05-11T10:15:00.000-07:00

The fighting in the Chouf has died down.

Most of the Lebanese news channels showed the same footage and mounted their cameras in the same place. However, the commentary was entirely different.

Hezbollah's al-Manar refers to all pro-government political parties as militias and fighters. They refer to all opposition militias (ie, the guys with guns on my street from Amal and SSNP), as parties.

Amal's NBN is irrate that al-Arabiya refers to their armed gunmen causing chaos in the streets of Beirut as a militia. NBN is adamant that Amal is just a political party.

The pro-government Future TV is still closed. Hezbollah fighters cut their connecting cables.

Pro-opposition New TV has good coverage of what is going on throughout Beirut. Hezbollah is not preventing their movements.

Al-Arabiya has the best Google Earth maps depicting the regions in the Chouf from which the Druze community is battling the Hezbollah onslaught. The Druze fighters dressed in green uniforms with backpacks allow al-Arabiya to film them, but Hezbollah prevents al-Arabiya from reporting from any areas they control.

Hezbollah's propaganda and the accompanying propaganda from Iran's English language Press TV is utterly preposterous. They are telling blatant lies about the Beirut population being happy about Hezbollah's takeover. They claim that everything in Beirut is back to normal and that no one supported the government's moment of silence. They also like to repeatedly claim that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora resigned, even though images on other channels show him in the Grand Serail.

The pro-government Christian Lebanese Forces is not participating in the conflict, but Hezbollah's al-Manar is demonizing him and showing images of the LF fighting in the Lebanese civil war. They are badmouthing everyone else in Lebanon, but they do not show any images of Hezbollah's violent behavior or the despicably horrible evils the Amal militia, the SSNP, the Marada, or the Syrian Army committed during the war.

It looks like it will be a quiet night, but the media war is on.

According to my friends in central Beirut, it is eery and tense.

Jumblatt calls for Druze to stop fighting

2008-05-11T07:36:00.000-07:00

Druze and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and PSP higher up and Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi spoke earlier on TV with trepidation in their voices asking for the Druze to stop fighting.

Jumblatt ordered his followers in Aley to hand their weapons over to rival Druze leader and opposition member Talal Arslan. Arslan urged the opposition to stop attacking the Chouf and the Druze residents there.

However, the television images show large fires in the Chouf. Friends living in the Hezbollah dominated southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahieh) tell me that all of the shops in their area are closing and that people are fleeing: "Dahieh is next! Dahieh is next!" is what they are all yelling.

Up to this point, Hezbollah dominated areas have been calm during this conflict. My friends tell me that RPG fire is so close now that car alarms are going off. I'm told that they are watching Druze descend from the mountain on Dahieh.

Update: Lebanese American University will be closed, tomorrow.

AUB Closed Tomorrow

2008-05-11T07:14:00.000-07:00

The American University of Beirut canceled classes tomorrow. This is distressing news because AUB tries never to cancel classes, even when the Lebanese government calls for schools to officially close after assassinations or for national holidays (like Armenian Christmas).

The Lebanese American University's website claims that classes will be held tomorrow, but they might change their minds given that Choueifat and the Chouf are currently under barrage.

What is most disturbing to Lebanese high school students is that international exams are scheduled simultaneously around the world. Students taking International Baccalaureate exams must take their exams under a barrage of gunfire, and even though many of them cannot get home, and must worry about the safety of their families.

No Fighting, but Still Tense

2008-05-10T12:06:00.000-07:00

The insanity of the last few days is over (at least for now), but everyone is still extremely tense. The return of masked gunmen to Hamra this afternoon gave all of us a shock that more could happen. Even if this afternoon escalation had not happened, Beirut residents are still traumatized and angry.

The atmosphere is horrible, and our attitudes will not change until our neighborhoods change. When traffic returns to our streets, students return to schools and universities, pubs and restaurants re-open, the physical damage is repaired, the political flags are taken down, and the usual Lebanese/Gulf Arab hedonism bring back the superficiality, music blaring from garish cars, and overly preened style our anger and frustration might lessen, and our spirits might be lifted.

Many neighborhood residents, myself included, cannot enjoy ourselves in our areas right now. The memories are horrible. The mental categorization through which we make sense of the world and frame our homes and communities, and the psychological stability our rational minds created using sensorial views like buildings, smiling neighbors, noises, smells, and predictable happenings has been broken.

As a professor at the American University of Beirut professor notes, "The streets literally changed. The space we live in has changed." The people we knew no longer have the same faces.

Hezbollah's Whining and Media Strategy

2008-05-10T09:30:00.001-07:00

Hezbollah is claiming that te Druze in Aley "kidnapped" two of their men last night. However, the better word to use is "captured." Hezbollah tried to invade Aley and the community there refused to allow them in.

Unfortunately, there is no way that the community could hand the men over to the Lebanese Army or Internal Security Forces for breaking the law because they organizations will suddenly become politicized. Hezbollah will demand their men back and will threaten violence if they are not returned.

Yet, Hezbollah continues to whine about the men's capture. Al Manar repeated over and over in its 3pm newscast the issue of the men's capture, and it led their news scroll. They said they are holding Walid Jumblatt personally responsible. What has not been confirmed is Hezbollah's claim that the captured men were killed with knives. If this is the case, it is a sad development, but understandly in a time of war, especially in a country where the men (and the men who ordered the attack) will not be held responsible for their actions.

A professor at the American University of Beirut said about this situation, "Hezbollah is acting like a petulant child. They are so unhappy about this. Bad losers. This is what happens during war. This is what happens when you invade someone's territory. They take your men."

Aside: From my window, I can see smoke rising from central Beirut.

Syria's Plan

2008-05-10T05:33:00.000-07:00

In a conversation with a PSP activist, we put the rumors we heard together, and found that there might be greater plans involved in these recent clashes. This is speculation, but it seems like there is a specific pre-constructed narrative being followed, and the weak link in the chain providing most of the information are SSNP guys.

It seems like Hezbollah's putsch is part of a larger plan to legitimate a Syrian return to Lebanon.

Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP tried to start clashes with the Sunni Future Movement and Druze PSP. Hezbollah assumed they would win after a week or so of clashes in Beirut and then dictate the narrative, claiming that they "liberated" the area. They followed their plan to take over all of Beirut, and then humiliate Hariri at the end by storming his compound. The only problem was that the March 14 parties refused to fight back and took away the clashes Hezbollah needed to legitimate their attacks ex post facto.

The plan was always to give territory back to the Army, but that is because the Army is merely a national symbol and placate the feelings of the community, while Hezbollah would remain in charge.

The SSNP would be the vanguard, placing posters of Syrian President Bashar al Assad everywhere. Hezbollah would be the enforcers, and try to keep some level of legitimacy by claiming that the SSNP guys are the Syria supporters. Amal and Berri would be the negotiating partner.

Hezbollah started clashes in the Bekaa simultaneous to the clashes in Beirut to make it seem like the fighting is national, but also to begin the process of providing Syria with an excuse to re-enter the country.

The SSNP forces were to rally in Metn (the suburban Christian area north of Beirut) a few days after Hezbollah started the clashes in Beirut (ie, some time around now or within the next few days). They would first join the fight against the Druze, but then use some action by other Christians in Metn as an excuse to begin clashes there. Given that the SSNP started organizing yesterday simultaneously throughout the country, it seems they are coordinating to strike soon.

The SSNP in the north will aid the supporters of pro-Syrian Sunni leader Omar Karami and other pro-Syrian factions in Tripoli. The SSNP in Koura would be the vanguard there, while the pro-Syrian northern Christian leader of the Marada Party Sleiman Franjieh would act like a combination of Hezbollah and Amal in Beirut.

Within a week, the Syrians would start griping about security on its border. Some attack would probably be staged on its border. They would use this as an excuse to enter Lebanon in some way.

Not Falling For It

According to my PSP source, March 14 is trying to foil Syrian plans, again. The Syrians have tried to cause an outbreak of violence before:

1) Assassinating Christian figures in 2005.
2) Setting off bombs in Christian residential neighborhoods in the middle of the night to terrorize the community and start a backlash.
3) Sending Hezbollah supporters through Ashrafieh on regular occasions with clubs to attack and intimidate Christians to spur a response.
4) Use mass demonstrations, riots, and attacks on the Serail to try to overthrow the government with superficial Christian support from Michel Aoun.
5) Spur on Palestinian militants to bomb Christian buses, and then have them create chaos in the north.
6) Bomb prominent sites (ABC mall in a Christian area, shopping center in Sunni/Shia/Druze Verdun, Aley shopping street) and try to get the populatin flustered.

Sadly, they might have accomplished their goal this time. Reprisals might begin soon. The attack on the Sunni funeral in Tariq al Jdeide today might be the beginning, and residents of Hamra are really angry with the SSNP for terrorizing them and destroying their shops and neighborhood.

Situation worsening

2008-05-10T05:26:00.001-07:00

It looks like the situation is getting bad again. I think I'm going to move north.

Hezbollah realizes that their plan didn't work. They know they need to either capitulate or escalate. We don't know what escalation entails, but a few weapons were fired in Hamra again, and the streets are very quiet.

Support Free Speech

2008-05-10T05:10:00.000-07:00

Mustapha at Beirut Spring created a banner supporting free speech in Lebanon.

Check it out.

Walking Around Hamra

2008-05-10T04:17:00.000-07:00

SSNP guys sit on many corners in Hamra and are patrolling on motor scooters. Their flags are everywhere, and they are gloating.

I was regularly mistaken for being an SSNP guy while out walking, because I am the right age, wearing the right clothes, and fitting the right physique to be one of their guys. The SSNP security guys gave me nods, the Army diverted their eyes, and the neighborhood residents gave me looks of absolute hatred.

Talking to people, my suspicions were confirmed. There was very little actual fighting. Most of the arms and RPG firing came from a bunch of Amal and SSNP kids having fun playing with their weapons.

Beautiful buildings are shot through. A number of shops were targetted. The SSNP members ran around the neighborhood shooting up the shops of Hariri supporters.

Nothing breeds more animosity in local residents who realize that they were terrorized by the punks across the street.

Some Sunni youth also acted like punks. They claimed to support Hariri, but just wanted to shoot guns and stick people up for money. They forced Syrian workers to pay them bribes. They told buildings in Caracas to pay up, or else they would use their roofs to fire on Hezbollah.

Sadly, these kids got themselves into a fight they were not prepared for. Near the intersection of Hamra and Sadat, a 15 year old and an 8 year old were killed while shooting guns from a motorscooter at Hezbollah fighters.

The Responses of Ras Beirut Residents

2008-05-10T01:26:00.000-07:00

I've been walking around my neighborhood visiting people to make sure they are okay, and these are a few things I've heard:

"Berri has no right to be Speaker of Parliament any more. His militia took to the streets in direct violation of the 1990 law. They did not disarm, and they worked against Lebanese government institutions. He was not doing his job before, but now this proves that he is just a militia warlord.

"If these SSNP don't stop roaming around the neighborhood, I'm going to shoot them myself. They are always in gangs of 5 or 6. I could take all of them out at once."

"The Saudis want the US to attack Iran, now. They don't care. This got them too angry."

Heading out again...

Jumblatt Unhappy with Aley Fights

2008-05-10T00:44:00.000-07:00

According to a member of the Progressive Social Party who fought in the battles last night, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is unhappy that his community fought back against Hezbollah in the Chouf.

According to this PSP member, the entire male Druze population in Aley blocked off all access to their city and came out in full force to protect their houses, which Hezbollah was attacking. They were armed with AKs and RPGs. They killed four Hezbollah fighters, and captured two. Supposedly, they have pictures of both.

According to friends who were monitoring the attacks, Hezbollah sent similar teams into Aley as they did into West Beirut. I'll have a description of this soon.

It was a quiet night, and it is a quiet morning. Birds chirping, sun shining, but frighteningly little noise on the streets of Hamra.

Attacks in the Chouf, and a bit of humor

2008-05-09T14:20:00.000-07:00

Hezbollah wanted a confrontation in Beirut. They didn't get it, and are now a bit embarrassed, so they are now attacking the Chouf. The Druze community fought back, and four Hezbollah fighters were killed.

According the LBC news, a large portrait of Syrian President Bashar Assad hangs on the attacked Future TV building.

(Not for those offended by foul language) Another blogger writes, "Someone found my blog by googling Arabs love to burn tires." I found it a bit amusing.

March 14 Didn't Fight, so What did Hezbollah Win?

2008-05-09T10:29:00.000-07:00

This is the first time in 2 days that I can leave my house, and I'm going to take this opportunity.

However, before I do so, I think it is important to note a few things:

1) The Army and the Internal Security Forces did not fight Hezbollah.

2) The March 14 leadership, as stated specifically by Walid Jumblatt, did take arms against Hezbollah. They did not barricade the streets of Beirut. They took no military measures to prevent Hezbollah/Amal/the Syrian Social Nationalist Party from doing what they chose to do.

There were gun clashes with local residents angry at Hezbollah's armed and intimidating approach, but unlike Hezbollah's coordinated drive, March 14 leaders did not combat Hezbollah.

3) Hezbollah controls territory in West Beirut, but is completely in violation of Lebanese law and the Constitution. There is no justification for their actions, and it is hard to understand why they did it in the first place. Some March 14 leaders believe that Hezbollah wanted them to fight back, but they refused.

Hezbollah has now, undeniably, used its weapons against the Lebanese state and its people. It has undeniably subverted democracy and the government institutions sworn to protect it.

4) The Army and other government institutions proved that they are not biased in favor or against any particular group in Lebanon. Obviously, a few Army biases became apparent, but this is more of a concern to faction leaders than to citizens.

5) Hezbollah and its allies cost Lebanon approximately $1 billion of damages: shutting down the airport for three days, shutting down the port, halting the transit of goods across the border to Syria, destroying roads and highways, destroying public parks and monuments, destroying the residences of parliamentary members and their vehicles, burning down newspaper offices and television stations, damaging apartment buildings, closing schools, halting exams, shutting down all commerce in Beirut. And that is not even mentioning the lives lost and the mental damage done to the entire population

6) Hezbollah now appears more similar to a foreign aggressor than a local party with which to negotiate. Like Israel did during the 2006 war, Hezbollah first stopped traffic at the airport, then immobilized movement throughout the country, halted commerce, emasculated government institutions and political leaders, and denied the Lebanese government sovereignty over its own territory.

7) Which Beirut citizen ever voted for Hezbollah to administer the city? Do you think they are happy to have their votes and opinions torn up by foreign funded militia? Did Beirut residents ask for what Hezbollah did? Hezbollah claims it defends Lebanon against Israel, but they are going to have a difficult time explaining to the residents of Beirut how exactly it is that Hezbollah is accomplishing its goals by wasting resources in Beirut?

7) How will Hezbollah begin its negotiations with March 14? With blackmail? Don't fire Walid Shouqeir from his job at the airport, and we'll give you a bunch of property we don't own and have no to administrate?

8) How can Hezbollah claim that the government is unconstitutional when Hezbollah blatantly flaunts the government on issues from government appointments, to telecommunications, to defense, to sharing of powers, and so on?

9) How long will the people of Beirut put up with this farce?

10) How is this even slightly to Hezbollah's benefit?

Hezbollah Controls Beirut

2008-05-09T07:14:00.000-07:00

The gun battle I wrote about earlier resulted in Hezbollah taking control of the area around Hariri's palace in Koreitem. They didn't storm the palace, but they control entry and exit.

There are Hezbollah members all over Hamra, and also Amal and SSNP militamen running around all over the place. The SSNP is putting flags up all over the streets of Hamra.

There are shell casings all over, and scars of battles on many buildings: broken windows, holes in walls.

Some people are walking in the streets.

Massive Firefight in Koreitem

2008-05-09T04:48:00.000-07:00

There is a massive gun battle going on in Koreitem right now.

It seems like Amal and Hezbollah tried to advance on Future, which is protecting the residence of Future Movement head, parliement majority leader, and the primary face of the Sunni community in Lebanon, Saad Hariri.

Hezbollah's Subtle Takeover

2008-05-09T03:25:00.000-07:00

Hezbollah has taken control of the media in Lebanon, and their propaganda campaign has already begun. They are currently presenting themselves as liberators of Lebanon, and allies of the Lebanese Army against a corrupt government supported by pro-government snipers and brigrands.

Hezbollah's militant takeover of Beirut and its systematic destruction of the authority of the state and freedom of the press suggests a sophisticated and planned campaign to take power. There is no hiding the violence Hezbollah used to seize Beirut and cut it off from the rest of the country. But as their media campaign is already showing, Hezbollah is employing subtle and sophisticated mechanisms to take over the rest of Lebanon. All news which could be construed as negative behaviors, such as the blatant destruction and corruption of Lebanese institutions, is hidden beneath a Hezbollah-dominated media blackout.

No one knows if Hezbollah is currently occupying government building, re-routing the telecommunications networks, placing weapons in areas they could not gain access to before, and more. If Hezbollah wins this battle, this information will never be made public.

Attacking the pro-Government Press
Future Television and Future News, both owned by parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri, have been shut down. According to Future CEO Nadim al Munla, Hezbollah militiamen said they would dynamite the multimillion dollar Future buildings, including the brand new and state of the art Future News building and studios, if they continue to broadcast. Al Mustaqbal newsaper, the newspaper paper of the Future Movement, was burned down, and Future radio has gone off the air.

Journalists cannot gain access to the myriad areas of Beirut in which fighting is taking place. Al-Manar television claimed earlier today that Hamra is peaceful and calm, and yet opposition militiamen are positioned on my street corner regularly firing their weapons. They fired off an RPG a few hours ago. Those who try to walk out on the streets are prevented from doing so. This is peace only according to the authoritarian definition of the word.

The Lebanese Broadcasting Channel (LBC), a Christian station based in the northern Christian region of Jounieh (Adma), is not even trying to cover the specifics on the ground, and most likely cannot gain access.

Al Jadid, Arabic for New TV, was granted the interview with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, has some of the best footage of this conflict. The station is normally pro-Hezbollah and supports the opposition, but seems to be leaning a bit in favor of the government (or at least the Sunni community), now.

Hezbollah's Media Campaign
Hezbollah's Al Manar TV is reporting on events in Lebanon, but much of the information, as I noted about the situation in Hamra, is skewed to make it appear like Hezbollah has liberated Beirut. The station is claiming that the opposition militants who are terrorizing the religiously diverse neighborhoods of Beirut are turning over the territory they have captured to the Lebanese Army. Hezbollah also claims that its forces have arrested the "bad," local militants and snipers and turned them over to the Lebanese Army.

From what I can see out my window, that does not appear to be the case. Hezbollah and Amal militiamen are on my streets firing automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades. According to a friend a few buildings over, Hezbollah and Amal have a sniper positioned on her roof. The Lebanese Army is nowhere in site.

Targeting the Lebanese Christians
Hezbollah seems to be making a concerted effort to placate the Christian population. Ashrafieh was not attacked, and life is relatively normal in the Christian suburbs north of Beirut.

Al Jazeera is claiming that Hezbollah has made a "concession" by opening the airport road. As was told to me by a veteran Lebanese reporter, all of the journalists and news agencies reporting right now have been vetted by Hezbollah. Even if the news is true, it is written to present Hezbollah's actions as gracious.

Michel Aoun just gave an interview claiming that the crisis will be over soon. He even noted that the illegal occupation of Beirut's downtown by opposition militants will end soon. Many who watched his interview are happy to hear this news, despite it coming from a politician who appears to be Hezbollah's Christian spokesman. Once again, this sounds like propaganda that no other Lebanese faction is in a position to challenge.

My Christian friends are all happy to hear the news about the airport road, and are glad to hear the good news from Michel Aoun. The opposition is making themselves appear to be the saviors of the nation, solving all problems at once. The airport road which they closed and Beirut's downtown which they occupied will no longer be points of contention. The government which they froze and whose institutions they actively subverted will now be released from their stranglehold grip. We will now be told that we should be happy that they control everything and that freedom can now reign over this sovereign land that is no longer occupied by the evils of democracy.

Most likely, a president will be elected. Given his recent performances in support of Hezbollah, that president will most likely be Michel Aoun. Another deadlock will be broken. We will be told that this is the will of the people, which the evil and corrupt former government and their scheming American, French, Saudian Arabian allies prevented from occuring.

Depressing Conclusion
At the moment, it feels a bit like fall 2004 when the Syrians bullied all Lebanese factions into voting for a three year extension of Emile Lahoud's term in office. Rafiq al-Hariri resigned from office, and Lebanese parliamentarians and democratic activists kept their mouths shut while Syria appointed a government made up of its Lebanese cronies. When Lebanese politicians began to stir a bit, Druze parliamentarian Marwan Hamade was targetted for assassination, and barely survived.

According to NOW Lebanon online newspaper, pro-government websites are being attacked. So, we'll see what happens to this blog. The government's telecommunications company has probably been fully overrun by Hezbollah, and all of our calls and internet traffic could be monitored. A source in the pro-Hezbollah Syrian Social Nationalist Party claims that everything is being monitored right now. Good luck getting reliable news from Lebanon.

Is the War Over?

2008-05-09T01:27:00.000-07:00

Have the Sunnis been defeated? Has Hezbollah followed the Hamas in Gaza model?

People on the street are saying that Saad Hariri is holding his forces back, that the real clashes will start when he wants them to. However, it appears to me that Amal and Hezbollah (now, simply referred to in my building - even by Shia - as "the Shia") have taken over without needing to spill much blood.

This is a war of intimidation. Hezbollah/Amal have proven that they have the capability to not only start chaos, but to quickly take over any and all Sunni areas and completely emasculate Sunni leaders by burning down their mulimillion dollar houses and forcing their multimillion dollar television stations off the air.

The thugs firing RPGs on my street are teenagers with weapons who have gone up against Hariri's private security, and won.

People in my building keep saying that there is a Blackwater-style South African trained mercenary army in Koreitem that will take back the neighborhood. I seriously doubt that given the way Future has been so quickly isolated.

Unfortunately, the anti-Shia racism going around now is at its heights. People are saying they will fire all of their Shia employees, and many are itching for personal reprisals; ie, "I can't take on Hezbollah and Amal thugs who refuse to let me out of my house, but I can beat up this poor Shia taxi driver, so I will."

Hezbollah has been very wise to attack the Sunnis. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has been wise to say that he is putting his trust in the Lebanese Army and security forces knowing full well that they would crumble in the face of opposition. If the Hezbollah attacked the Druze, they would have a real "take no prisoners" war on their hands.

The Sunnis were not prepared for this battle. Hariri took the lead, and he has been completely isolated. This has larger ramifications, given that Saudi Arabia and the Sunni sect now seem discredited and exposed.

Hezbollah's End Agenda

2008-05-09T01:03:00.000-07:00

Hezbollah is not mounting a coup. They do not want to control ALL of Lebanon. They have no interest in controlling state institutions.

Hezbollah has and wants to perpetuate its own government that acts as an overseer of the Lebanese government. The Lebanese government is there to prevent other sects from creating their own statelets, militarizing, and fighting Hezbollah. How could any other sect possibly question this system? This is the system that the Syrians, to whom Hezbollah was so thankful on 8 March 2005, so benificently provided to Lebanon.

As Hezbollah's actions have proven, state institutions mean nothing to them. The Army, police, and government are here to keep everyone else in order, as long as Hezbollah is allowed to act with impunity.

Hezbollah has no interest in ruling other sects or doing the day to day management of Lebanon. Their goal is simply to get whatever they want from the Lebanese state, which is exactly what has happened for the last few years. Of course, this means that no other sect or group gets to do what they want.

The Lebanese government and people (including the Shia) should never, according to Hezbollah, do anything that impinges on Hezbollah's actions, or which might cause negative repercussions to Hezbollah's allies in Syria and Iran.

If Hezbollah decides to take actions which negatively affect Lebanese citizens - for example, starting a war with Israel that creates massive destruction, all other Lebanese must keep their mouths shut and allow Hezbollah to do whatever it decides is the best route forward. After the war, Hezbollah will kindly rebuild Hezbollah infrastructure, provide social welfare to their most loyal supporters in the Shia sect, and maybe throw pennies at the rest of us. However, they will expect the rest of us not to complain about the war, destruction, or the pittance they provide for us after the war (if we are even alive), and blame everything that happened on the Zionist enemy and the American conspiracy against Lebanon, which are the only reasons why bad things happen here.

Hezbollah will keep down any uppity sect. Demographically, there may be more Sunnis than Shia in Lebanon. Sunni politicians may have more money, more international connections, more votes, and even a parliamentary majority, but they are never to consider confronting the divine Hezbollah. If they do, Hezbollah will take over their neighborhoods, burn down the houses of their parliamentarians, destroy their political and media outlets, insult them, and fully emasculate them.

Rights? Hezbollah will start a war if one of their supporters is fired from a bureaucratic position. Take that Constitution and Lebanese people!

This Fight is Now Fully Sectarian

2008-05-09T00:51:00.000-07:00

Yesterday morning, this was a battle about ideologies. Today, it is sectarian.

The way the people and, to a certain degree the news media, are portraying this controversy is as the Shia sect against everyone else.

I'm hearing people say things like, "They destroyed the Future news offices. Isn't this what Israel did to Hezbollah's al-Manar in the first days of the 2006 war?"

The reason for these sectarian perceptions from what I have heard are, amongst other things, Hezbollah has:

1) dishonored and personally offended Druze leader Walid Jumblatt;
2) emasculated the Lebanese government and institutions;
3) dishonored the entire Sunni sect;
4) destroyed the house and cars of a popular Sunni, Beiruti parliamentarian;
5) worn government police uniforms impersonating one of the institutions they are presently discrediting, and making the people fully distrust the institution;
6) prevented people from walking in the streets;
7) completely taken advantage of any trust any other Lebanese sect had for them.

On a lighter note

2008-05-08T15:03:00.000-07:00

Thank you to everyone for all of their help.

I now have the telephone numbers of a few embassies, and the personal cell phones numbers of embassy staff. People from around the world are sending all sorts of helpful information, and I now have offers to stay at more homes throughout Lebanon than I could possibly even visit for tea in a one week period.

An extremely attractive friend said that if I could get out of Hamra, but couldn't get out of Beirut, I could stay with her in Ashrafieh. She then asked for my number. I provided it over Facebook chat, and she missed called me. Amazing! A war-time missed call! Too cool! I love technology.

Some friends just brought me food, and a friend at law school in New York is sending flirtatious messages from her law school classmates.

Things are going well, despite the gun battles in the streets.

However, I'm shocked that the major news agencies are not providing more information about what is going on here. There is an actual war going on (although they are basically taking up positions and firing their weapons more to mark territory than to kill their opponents), and yet the coverage is minimal.

The Israelis are celebrating their 60th anniversary, and Syrian President Bashar Assad is asking to negotiate with them. President Bush is trying to get the Palestinians and the Israelis back on track in their negotiations. I realize there is a lot of news coming out of the Levant, but there should be a little bit more coverage of Lebanon.

Obviously, the humanitarian disaster in Myanmar should be the first story mentioned in a newscast, but Lebanon should definitely come in second. There is a hot war going on here. The US and Zimbabwean elections are important, but don't deserve second billing. :)

Battlelines: The Details

2008-05-08T13:24:00.000-07:00

The government supporting Future Movement currently control the south side of Hamra Street; the side that leads toward Koreitem, where Saad Hariri lives.

The Hezbollah supporting Amal Movement controls the north side of Hamra Street; their fighters have positioned themselves on Makdissi Street. The masked gunmen next to Smith's Grocery Store on Sadat St. whom I mentioned earlier are probably Amal, not Future.

An AUB student visiting relatives in my building made the mistake of walking out on the street. Immediately as he approached our building, two Amal members on a motor scooter drove up wearing masks and pulled him into an alcove. He recognized them as other AUB students.

There are sporadic clashes on Hamra Street between Malik al Batata and Sadat Street, ie in front of the Crowne Plaza Hotel and Roadster's Diner.

Friends in the building

2008-05-08T13:18:00.000-07:00

I just went to a friend's apartment in my building. The atmosphere with them was totally different, but a bit too relaxed...

Still, it was nice to be with other people.

Home Alone

2008-05-08T11:54:00.000-07:00

So, I'm home alone, and rather concerned.

People keep calling, but we get cut off after 30 seconds.

I'm being rather quiet because there is a lot of traffic going up to my roof. Hariri's compound is visible from here, as is Siniora's building. However, I haven't heard any firing from the roof.

The doorman claims that it might be other people in the building looking. I doubt that...

My bed is next to the windows, unfortunately. I'm tired, and want to sleep.

I haven't heard anything major in awhile. Just small arms.

We're all trapped in our buildings. If they don't come to some sort of solution, I hope the battle lines become more secure, so I know which faction the masked gunmen in my area are from and the precise location of the snipers.

Trapped in one place

2008-05-08T11:30:00.000-07:00

I'm alone. It's not fun to be alone at times like these, even though I've got internet.

A group of people were considering moving half a block to one person's house. There are periodically people in the street. The guy at the house was watching from his balcony, and the street is clear and safe. No snipers on our street, and the walk is a few meters.

Then, from a completely different angle, another person on Facebook chat wrote to the friend guiding that a car with four masked gunmen was driving up the street, and they would see anyone if they were looking in the right direction.

Change of plans.

Then, someone fired a weapon from two blocks away from my position. I typed this in.

Now, there is small arms fire coming from Koreitem.

Fighting Breaks out again in Beirut

2008-05-08T10:41:00.000-07:00

The bullets and RPGs are flying, again. There are sustained bursts, then quiet.

The RPGs make an interesting suction sound as they are fired.

It's dark. Oddly enough, many people in Hamra have their drapes open and lights on. That is surprising, but I guess shows that the situation is either not horribly bad, or that these people are just a bit ignorant.

Two separate friends both within two separate blocks in opposite directions just invited me to come over. Both assured me that the half a block in front of them are safe, but could not say anything about the rest of the journey.

It sounds like an RPG just landed on my street, though.

Hariri Finishes Speaking and Guns Start Again

2008-05-08T10:24:00.001-07:00

Saad Hariri listed demands to Hezbollah: opening the roads, electing a president, keeping unity, etc.

His speech ended, and the gunfire picked up again. It isn't very bad, though. It is sporadic. There are no battles going on.

Hariri calls for Negotiations with Nassrallah

2008-05-08T10:16:00.000-07:00

Future Movement and March 14 parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri just called for one on one talks with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.

Hariri speaking

2008-05-08T10:11:00.001-07:00

Taking a break to watch Hariri speak...

Calming Down

2008-05-08T09:57:00.000-07:00

It's 8pm now and the sun has gone down.

I don't hear much in terms of gun battles now. Everyone is watching the news to see what happened, what is happening, and what will happen.

My friends in Corniche al Mazraa, UNESCO, Dar al Fatwa, Mar Elias, and many others are trapped at home. It is not safe for them to leave the house. A friend in Hamra who runs a restaurant cannot go back home to Wata Msseitbeh.

We're all waiting, but I haven't heard any firing in about 10 minutes, which is a good sign. I hear the voices of children in the street, another good sign.

(Oh, there goes a burst of gunfire, but in the distance).

According to friends in other parts of Ras Beirut, including right next to Smith's Grocery Store on Sadat, there are masked gunmen running around in the street. Next to Smith's the gunmen are probably members of the Future Movement. Every night, I see Future members sitting on that corner. They are from the neighborhood, so they won't turn their guns inward on us.

This battle is entirely political. There are sectarian dimensions, but no one is targetting civilians.
(burst of gunfire nearby) We just need to stay out of their way, and we should be fine.

Visiting People

2008-05-08T09:43:00.000-07:00

The sky is ominously cloudy and gray.

I'm sitting alone at home with time to ponder:

Maybe the reason for Lebanese warm hospitality to random guests comes from the upheaval this country has experienced. If someone shows up at your doorstep, take them in and make them feel really good, because you don't know what they've been through.

My internet works, but the phone lines are jammed from too many calls. If I want to go to someone else's house for the night, there is no way to call them in advance. Luckily, I can trust most Lebanese to assist me along my way, and my relatives and friends will be offended if I choose to stay with one family over another: "Oh, you went to stay with them because Rania's a better cook, eh?"

Advice from the Older Generation

2008-05-08T09:33:00.000-07:00

I'm getting advice through chatting programs about what to do if I can't leave and the situation gets worse. Much of it is common knowledge from the civil war:

Sit in the bathroom - bathtub if it gets really bad. Get away from the windows.

Make sure the doorman likes you.

Don't try to leave the neighborhood before you know where the snipers are.

Store up food and water.

If someone told me on Tuesday that these kinds of things would even come out in conversation today, I would not have taken that person seriously.

Ironically enough, just a few weeks ago there was a massive display next to the Starco Center where they had set up something like 500 toilets with a slogan like, "Isn't 15 years of sitting on toilets enough?" I didn't think I would seriously be considering spending quality time in my bathroom any time soon.

Blogging, Chatting, Texting During War

2008-05-08T09:10:00.000-07:00

Bullets are flying, so I know I shouldn't be thinking about modes of communication, but I can't help myself.

The 2006 War was all about Gmail chat. My friends throughout Lebanon and in other countries chatted with me from where I was in the safety of my house. I was safe and basically knew the parameters of the battlefield. We waxed widely about myriad subjects.

During this war/battles/clashes/violence, we are using Facebook chat. Friends living one street away, a few blocks away, and on the other side of the city are chatting with me about what is going on in their neighborhoods. Things are happening everywhere, but much of the fighting is not being reported on TV - journalists cannot be everywhere at once.

I just told a friend in Gemmayze about the heavy arms I hear in Hamra, and he offered that I come stay with him. Unfortunately, I don't think there is any way I can possibly get over there. Either the government or the opposition have closed most of the roads out of Beirut. However, I could probably slip by while walking over to Gemmayze, and then I would be safe to stay with friends throughout the majority of the country who are not participating in this chaos. My friend on chat just told me the government reopened the sea road, so it won't be a problem going there.

Friends from abroad are trying to chat with me, but I'm not paying attention to them. We're trying to figure out where we will be in the next few minutes, hours, days. Will we be caught in some fighting if we don't flee to the mountains, or will we be okay here? Most of us in the neighborhood are pretty rational about what we need to do. People what is happening on television are far more hysterical.

These chatting programs are very useful for coordination; not as good as radios, but good enough for those of us who aren't coordinating attacks on neighborhoods, but merely responding the the situation. We feel a lot more impowered now that we have a greater access to information and can coordinate with one another about what to do next.

Aside: A friend from Naccache just called to tell me that "White," a posh club in downtown Beirut, opens tonight. I told him that they have probably postponed the opening, and noted everything that I've been writing here. His response was, "Really? That sounds really bad. I haven't been watching TV, but everything is normal here."

Strangely enough, iTunes randomizer just started playing Kurdish battle music. Kind of a strange soundtrack humming below the gunfire in the background. A little exhilarating, actually.

Hamra Battles Starting

2008-05-08T09:03:00.000-07:00

About half an hour ago, I started hearing heavy artillery and light arms fire close by. Then, something landed two streets away, but I don't know what. No loud collision noise. A friend on that street looked from his balcony after feeling the vibrations, but has no idea what it was.

Another friend who lives between International College and the lighthouse (Manara) just sent me a Facebook chat message:

Dude, it's f**kin scary. The snipers across from my house just got rocket launchers.

I haven't seen any of this. I'm not going to go up on my roof.

Hamra Quiet through Conflict

2008-05-08T09:01:00.000-07:00

Honestly, if I don't leave Hamra, I wouldn't even notice that anything is going on. Helicopters fly overhead a lot more often than usual. The sporadic gunfire heard in Hamra is not much different than that regularly heard in Hamra throughout the spring months. However, the sounds get louder and closer, and it sounds like they are firing heavier weapons, now.

Of course, the minute I try to walk towards Hariri's compound, Jumblatt's house, or the Central Bank I notice that the security barricades that are always there now fully prevent car and most pedestrian access.

It's becoming increasingly difficult to travel anywhere in the city. Hezbollah blocked the bridge linking Ras Beirut and Ashrafieh. The sea road is open, but Saifi has become a staging area for Future activists, so it is now difficult to travel through there.

Everyone is concerned about the situation, but people in Hamra are going about business as usual, except with a sizeable serving of consternation.

Of course, no one knows how long this will go on. Predictions are aplenty, but it is really up to Hezbollah and the government to come to some sort of agreement.

The Christians refuse to participate in this brigandry. The Druze are participating, but to a limited degree. The Druze neighborhoods in the middle of Beirut are obviously coordinating with the Future Movement, but the Chouf has not been mobilized to take action in Beirut.

Hamra is a shocking island of security. We have freedom of movement. Our restaurants and shops are open. Some street cafes are packed with people, except now their faces are concerned, not laughing. Very little traffic. Fewer taxi drivers.

A few places in Hamra are closed because the staff and manager live in areas effected by this violence.

It is surprisingly similar to the 2006 war when we could hear all of the violence, but were totally safe using electricity and internet.

Analysis of Hezbollah's Riots

2008-05-07T18:16:00.000-07:00

Michael Young has a good summation of how this crisis came to be, and other implications.

He answers the, "Why is Walid Jumblatt bringing up a few of Hezbollah's abuses, now?" question I asked a few days ago: "what Jumblatt did was provoke a confrontation and, to dig up the old Soviet jargon, heighten the contradictions between Lebanese society and Hizbullah."

The pithiest line: "As the commentator Uqab Sakr put it: "Shutting down the airport is what the Israelis did in 2006; it's not what Hizbullah should be doing today.""

Young's conclusion:

The Lebanese state cannot live side by side with a Hizbullah state. This theorem is becoming more evident by the day, as the party's actions in the past three years have been, by definition, directed against the state, the government, the army and the security forces, institutions of national representation, the economy, and more fundamentally the rules of the Lebanese communal game. We've reached the point where Hizbullah, and more importantly the Shiite community, must choose. Will it persist in favoring a Hizbullah-led parallel state that will surely continue to clash with the recognized state? Or will Shiites try to find a new arrangement with their countrymen that forces Hizbullah to surrender its weapons?

A Day of Riots

2008-05-07T11:04:00.000-07:00

I have refused to pay attention to the madness in Beirut's streets. The actions of misbehaving brigands misbehaving requires no analysis or explanation.

Snipers, burning tires, closing the airport, blocking roads, violence against the military/security services/municipal buildings, preventing free movement, scaring the unarmed population by firing rocket propelled grenades, general disregard for anyone but themselves: the ends better be glorious to justify these means, because one would be hard pressed to find someone to justify this kind of behavior, particularly in a democracy.

As for me, my day went as usual: a brisk walk to work, writing a report, reading US political news, and now I'm off to a light dinner. The only difference was that the streets were quieter, and everyone is fretting.

I'll let the elected government act on my behalf, while I continue trying to build a fruitful and creative society.

However, if they continue denying me the freedom to fly out of the country when I choose, I support turning Beirut's downtown into one massive performance place and outdoor market free of tents and political rallies.

Being aloof keeps me from getting angry. It's working... :)

Looking forward to a dangerous day

2008-05-06T16:41:00.000-07:00

I'm heading to bed later than usual, tonight. This is because I doubt that I will need to be at work on time tomorrow.

A few opposition affiliated Lebanese unions are striking tomorrow. The last few times opposition affiliated organizations have protested it has meant attacks on those affiliated with the government and clashes with the Lebanese Army. This time, please allow me to assume that this protest is a disingenuous attempt to attack the Lebanese government and Army. I may be wrong, but actions speak louder than words (pardon the cliche).

I understand that the oppositiong is piping mad. The Lebanese Cabinet, which the opposition unconstitutionally claims is illegitimate, ruled yesterday that Hezbollah should not be allowed to have its own telephone network.

Hezbollah counters claiming that their network is needed to combat the Israelis, however the Lebanese government points out that Hezbollah is profiting significantly from their scheme. Often, when I receive calls from friends in the United States I see the country code +98, which is the country code for Iran. Often, it also has a 2 or a 31 after the +98, which indicates that the call was routed through either Tehran or Isfahan.

The United Nations reports on the Hariri assassination revealed that myriad illegal phone networks exist in Lebanon, and these phone networks were partially used in Hariri's assassination. Despite owning the cellular telephone lines, the Lebanese government (as opposed to the Syrian and Iranian governments) had little control over Lebanese telecommunications prior to 2005.

The Lebanese government does not allow the use of pre-paid international calling cards, and yet they proliferate throughout Lebanon. The same kinds of cards are sold throughout the United States, Europe, South America, Africa, and the rest of the world. According to an article I read (but the web address of which I cannot recall), the international calling card industry is incredibly profitable (ie, the hundreds of millions of dollars to billions of dollars), particularly for those providing cards for Lebanon, a country whose telephone operators are not competent enough to issue international calling cards of their own.

Allegedly, Hezbollah's telephone network is stealing funds from the Lebanese people and government. The Lebanese government owns all of the telephone networks in Lebanon, including the cellular telephone arena operated by MTC and Alfa (these companies are paid only $5 million a month to manage the networks despite the government earning significantly more from cellular revenues). Hezbollah's illegal network is direct theft from Lebanese citizens and the Lebanese government. If they merely operated a military network, the Ministry of Defense would most likely be handling the portfolio. However, they use their network for personal profit with the Lebanese state.

On top of this, Hezbollah operates a security sphere separate from that of the Lebanese government. Hezbollah justifies this by claiming that the Lebanese military, which was under the command of the Syrians for 15 years, is incompetent. It is true that Lebanese forces were not the most competent in the world prior to 2005, but the Lebanese Army proved its capability in Nahr al Bared in 2007. Over the last three years the Lebanese military and security services have increased their capabilities, yet Hezbollah refuses to cooperate with them. Not just this, but Hezbollah regularly arrests members of Lebanese Internal Security Forces without justification.

Hezbollah also chooses to subvert state security by installing its own security network throughout Lebanon. They claim that the Lebanese network is insecure because it is vulnerable to penetration by Israelis, but if the Lebanese press and security analysts know about Hezbollah's radar system and spy cameras at the airport, how secure can they be?

A Hezbollah supported has long controlled airport security, and the government has now dismissed him from his position. Either he neglected his duty and did not notice non-state entities positioning cameras at the Rafiq Hariri International Airport, or he willing cooperated with them.

The most troubling aspect of all of this is that Hezbollah and their allies choose to combat the Lebanese government on the streets, but refuse to open parliament for debate about the issues of state they were elected to represent.

Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun claims that the government has declared war on Hezbollah. Of course, this comes from the same discredited Christian leader who says that he supports Hezbollah combat facilities in Jounieh and Byblos.

Enjoy your Wednesday. I will not be enjoyable for us in Lebanon.

2008 is not 1975

2008-05-05T19:04:00.000-07:00

Hezbollah’s actions against Israel are different than the Palestinian actions taken against Israel prior to 1975. In 1975, a non-Lebanese, non-voting faction took arms against Israel. Although Palestinians changed the way the Lebanese state operated, their intention was not to overthrow the Lebanese system. Hezbollah’s agenda, however, fully undermines the Lebanese state from within.

Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese democratic system and could easily advance its cause within parliament, yet chooses not to. When challenged, Hezbollah deputy secretary Naim Qassem ripostes with a challenge to the Lebanese system as a whole. Instead of participating in Lebanese democracy, upholding the constitution, and allowing the Christian community its equal say in Lebanese politics, the Lebanese opposition refuses to allow Christian and non-Christian lawmakers into parliament to negotiate over the Lebanese presidency.

The Hezbollah agenda not only challenges Israel, but challenges the way Lebanese interact with one another. You may believe that Hezbollah’s agenda is righteous and worthy of support, however by exacerbating sectarian differences and failing to win allies in the other Lebanese communities, they are undermining the democracy in which they live.

It is true that Hezbollah has power and weapons and that the March 14 coalition cannot forget about them and their supporters. However, it is Hezbollah who forgets about the other members of the democracy in which it exists.

The reason why March 14 has credibility is because March 14 leaders and followers believe in the Lebanese state and its institutions.

If the Lebanese civil war and 15 years of Syrian hegemony taught Lebanon’s political leadership anything, it is that Lebanese must work within the Lebanese system without revolutionary ideas about overthrowing the state. Other Lebanese factions always repulse the revolutionary faction, while foreign powers take advantage of the security vacuum.

If the March 8/ March 14 divide has taught anything, it is that Lebanon is not facing a crisis similar to the one it face in 1975. The majority of Lebanese do not believe in Gamal Abdel Nasser style Pan-Arabism. The Palestinian militant groups on Lebanese territory are not attacking Israel, and the Lebanese people fully support that Palestinian weapons remain contained within the Palestinian camps. Lebanese factions are not exploiting Cold War politics for personal gain.

Right now, the divide is between those who support a weak state and those who support a strong state. Both Hezbollah and Christian leader Michel Aoun claim that they support a strong state, but all of their actions indicate that they support a revolutionary state in which they are ultimately the benefiting factions.

The March 14 alliance is imperfect. There are significant differences between the factions. However, all of them are committed to a non-violent Lebanon in which government institutions have a monopoly over violence.

Will March 14 leaders support this agenda forever? Who knows, and who cares, as long as they are advancing the cause right now? When their positions change, my support for them will change.

Were they always like this? No, they weren’t. But they are the best option, now.

Yes, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea fought each other during the civil war and are responsible for the deaths of many citizens. Yes, it is alleged in Fawaz Traboulsi’s book that Lebanese Forces Vice President George Adwan initiated dialogue with the Israelis. Yes, Amine al-Gemayel presided over Lebanon during its worst period, and he is alleged to have been involved in dirty deals, including plots against Lebanon’s free press (ie, Talal Salman).

Yes, it is true that Future Movement party leader Saad Hariri had little political experience in Lebanon before 2005 and was known as a Saudi prince when he was studying in America.

Yes, Democratic Left party parliamentarian Elias Atallah was a Stalinist. Yes, Democratic Left member Ziad Majed worked for Joseph Samaha and Talal Salman, members of the anti-March 14 press.

Yes, Boutros Harb and Nayla Mouwad worked within the Lebanese system when Syria dominated the scene.

Yes, it is true that March 14 leaders do not practice democratic activism in the same way as democratic politicians do in the West.

However, it is a great thing that these facts are known about them, and that we can talk about them openly. What is even more incredible is that all of these flawed individuals have chosen to put aside their histories of animosity and come together to support the Lebanese state.

Unfortunately, I cannot say the same about those who fire their weapons at the Lebanese Army, and undermine the democratic system in Lebanon to which they agreed during the 2005 elections.

Weekly Lebanon Security Update: May 4-10

2008-05-04T17:57:00.000-07:00

Status: Caution

This will be a tense week in Lebanon.

This evening, Sunday 4 May, Amal supporters fired their weapons on Lebanese citizens in Corniche al Mazraa. I'm not sure whom exactly they shot or why they did it, but I did see the massive Lebanese Army presence on the street.

Allegedly, Future Movement supporters responded by firing M16s back. I have not seen any news regarding the events. Everything I know comes from a Lebanese Army officer who was unclear of the exact occurence.

Protests will take place this week. Lebanese unions will misbehave for a number of declared reasons, which is merely cover for anti-government riots supported by the Hezbollah-led opposition. These protests could possibly get out of control, depending on how far the opposition wants to go.

Given what happened at the last protests, the Lebanese Army will be ready for unrest from armed individuals.

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and the Lebanese government are taking Hezbollah to task. Hezbollah provided Jumblatt with an excuse to launch an attack against them. Jumblatt hosted the Socialist International, and Hezbollah dishonored him by arresting an old and esteemed French delegate, Karim Pakzad, and detaining him for 5 hours for the crime of being a tourist taking photographs.
Hezbollah refused to apologize, and Jumblatt escalated his attack by presenting the media with other specific cases in which Hezbollah is breaking the law. The government was forced to respond.

The March 14 Coalition is threatening to elect a president on May 13. The opposition refuses to meet at the Lebanese parliament. Now, they refuse to attend the dialogue they proposed. March 14 recognizes that it has the strength to push back against opposition recalcitrance.

Update:

Supporting articles:

Amal clashes in Corniche al Mazraa

The opposition expresses its anger at Jumblatt and Hariri for manifesting opposition illegal activities.

Hezbollah threatens the government that it should not attempt to disconnect their illegal telephone network.

Michel Aoun just announced on television that he wants the government to be overthrown on Wednesday. The temperature is rising.

Beirut International Airport Possible Attack

2008-05-01T21:28:00.000-07:00

The Beirut airport, currently the Rafiq Hariri International Airport, is being targetted for attack by Hezbollah, according to Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt.

I have no idea why he is publicizing this now. The countries supplying Unifil with troops and support all know that Hezbollah has its own monitoring system of the airport. Every American pilot who landed at the Beirut airport knew the exact vacant apartment from which Hezbollah radar stations tracked their approach to the airport. The technology to track aircraft is simple and easy to purchase on the legal market (let alone what you can get on the black market).

Hezbollah has outposts in Ouzai that monitor incoming aircraft. They can easily shift the location of their tracking devices, but most NATO military aircraft (ie, Unifil planes, US military planes supplying ammunitions for Nahr al Bared, and even Amro Moussa's private government sponsored aircraft) have the ability to track those who track them.

Check out the specs they are offering on private jets. You can definitely get a radar tracking system in your next GulfStream, Lear Jet, or personal Boeing or Airbus. I'm sure Saad Hariri, Issam Fares, and Najib Miqati have them.

In Beirut, you don't even need radar to track aircraft. From any tall building, the naked eye is a decent instrument to use to track incoming aircraft into the airport. Much more can be done the higher up in the mountains one goes. Any radical with a surface to air missile can set up base on the Rmleit al Bayda beach, or any seaside tall building, and take potshots at incoming planes. Send a monitor to Cyprus, infiltrate Cypriot government monitoring systems, or install your own system in the generally ungoverned Turkish Cypriot area and you'll have even better equipment with which to monitor aircraft in the Eastern Mediterranean.

One doesn't even need a missile to take down aircraft flying into Beirut. The Serbs took down a US F-117 Nighthawk stealth plane with normal technology in 1999. Military analysts at the time claimed automatic weapons fired in the right direction might have contributed to taking down the aircraft; thus sophisticated missile weaponry was not needed.

The Israelis know this and use countermeasures. During the 2006 war, I do not recall that Israeli aircraft - planes and helicopters - were shot down, despite lots of random gunfire and anti-aircraft weaponry pointed in their direction. During that war, it was visible to the naked eye in Beirut that Israeli helicopters flew up the coast and attacked Dahieh without meaningful retaliation.

If Hezbollah or others decide to attack international aircraft, that is a tremendous escalation. However, the risk is always there.

Why publicize it, now? Is a March 14 politician or foreign personality being targetted? Does Jumblatt want the government to take further action against Hezbollah prior to the presidential dialogues? Perhaps he just wants everyone to be mindful that they are taking risks whenever they fly in and out of the country?

Jumblatt Watching and the Need for a National Dialogue

2008-04-26T20:14:00.000-07:00

“Whenever I want to know how bad the situation is in Lebanon, I look in the trunk of Rabieh’s car. If there are only a few revolvers, the situation is fine. If there are a few automatic weapons, the situation is tense. And if it is packed with AKs and M16s, I know the situation could explode at any time,” says a friend of mine in the Democratic Left Party.

Rabieh is a mid-level member of the primarily Druze Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) who lives in Wata Msseitbeh, the hotbed, frontline PSP neighborhood in Beirut surrounded by Shia, Sunni, and Palestinian neighborhoods. It is the PSP equivalent of Sunni Tariq al Jadideh and Shia Haret al Hreik.

Progressive Socialist Party leader and Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt sends orders to Rabieh. Jumblatt is notorious for his shifting political positions. Some criticize him for not having any values. More likely, his opinion shifts because he better grasps the Lebanese political situation on a local, regional, and international level than any other actor; and thus, he is normally ahead of most political trends.

Leave Hezbollah Alone

While most members of the March 14 Coalition call Parliamentary Speaker Nabih al Berri a disingenuous negotiator, Jumblatt argues on behalf of the national dialogue Berri announced after his recent trip to Damascus. Jumblatt also argued that there should be no discussion of Hezbollah’s weapons at this session of the dialogue.

Jumblatt’s stance is particularly interesting. During the national dialogue in 2005, Jumblatt was the main antagonist against Hezbollah. The dialogue was postponed so Jumblatt could meet with US government officials in Washington and proclaim from American soil that the Shebaa Farms are not Lebanese territory. During the dialogue, he routinely attacked the opposition and urged other members of the March 14 Coalition not to acquiesce to Hezbollah demands.

In the end, Jumblatt was right. Hezbollah got absolutely everything they wanted. The Future Movement agreed with Hezbollah that “Israel is the enemy,” agreeing that Syria is a sister nation, agreeing that Palestinians outside the camps should be disarmed (which Hezbollah knew it prevent from ever being implemented), and deciding that the Shebaa Farms are, in fact, Lebanese territory. Before the majority could discuss any of its demands – particularly agreeing to national support for the investigation of and tribunal over the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri, Berri postponed the dialogue indefinitely and Jumblatt’s seemingly recalcitrant positions were vindicated.

Now, while the rest of the March 14 Coalition is recalcitrant, Jumblatt is making concessions to the opposition.

Why is Jumblatt doing this?

I have not interviewed Walid Jumblatt recently, so I do not know why he is taking his current positions. However, I am in agreement with him, and this is why:

1. Syria and Iran will not cede Lebanon to the March 14 Coalition. They are willing to take the country to war – proven in 2006, willing to destroy the economy – proven by the 18 month occupation of Beirut’s downtown and the presidential vacuum, and willing to assassinate anyone who gets in their way.

2. Western countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the international coalition supporting Lebanon are not willing to go to the same lengths as the Iranians and Syrians. Israel and the United States are the countries most likely to take aggressive action against the Syrians, but it seems doubtful that they will even consider doing so before 2009. The Syrians and Iranians also know that they can keep the US and Israel busy by promoting conflicts in Iraq, Palestine, and Lebanon.

3. Hezbollah is the most powerful force in Lebanon. They are likely more powerful now than they were in 2006, and are definitely more paranoid of other Lebanese now than at any other time. Rumors in security circles, even before the assassination of Imad Mughnieh, contend that Hezbollah is no longer concerned with domestic Lebanese politics and is entirely focused on attacking Israel. They have effectively prevented the Lebanese government from electing a president, and are fully capable of blocking almost anything they want. The main effort now is not to try and isolate Hezbollah, but to bring them back into the fold and try to convince them to moderate their behavior (ie, prevent entirely erratic and nationally dangerous behavior), given that there is no way any Lebanese entity can force Hezbollah to do anything it is not willing to do.

4. If Iran and Syria are not placated in some way, the current Lebanese situation will undoubtedly get worse. The goal right now is to minimize concessions.

The March 14 Coalition must not give the Syrians an excuse to return to Lebanese territory, and it must do this by negotiating with the Lebanese opposition. Parliamentary member Michel el-Murr acted too late to have any effect on the presidential debate, but he could be a useful broker alongside Nabih al-Berri in forging an agreement. March 14 cannot allow the situation to devolve any further. Hezbollah has too much power, and the government bears too much responsibility in the eyes of Lebanese citizens. Hezbollah continues to arm and prepare for war, while the Lebanese government is on dry ice.

However, Jumblatt is not conceding the majority’s interests. He is mindful of the opposition’s strength, and sees an opportunity for the majority to make gains.

5. Even if Hezbollah is aloof to Lebanon and Lebanese politics, why should other politicians not treat Hezbollah as an equal parliamentary bargaining partner?

5. These dialogues are being proposed by the opposition and the Syrians. This is a golden opportunity for March 14 because the government is following the letter of the law and is proposing nothing radical or unreasonable. The majority has proven its willingness to convene at parliament and elect a president, while the opposition refuses to show up. The majority should do the same with the dialogue, show up and then watch as opposition parliamentarian Michel Aoun and Hezbollah refuse to join. The majority has called the opposition's bluff before by naming General Michel Sleiman - originally thought of as the opposition's choice for president - as their choice for Lebanon's highest office. Even if the dialogue does occur, yet is not televised, it will become apparent to the Lebanese people that the opposition is blocking reconciliation.

6. The majority made concessions to the opposition in 2006 and the opposition must be reminded of this. Why even debate about electing a president? That is what parliament is for. Why not return to the 2006 agenda? It will be very easy for the majority to concede the opposition's demand of veto power if the opposition is willing to support the Hariri tribunal and demarcating the border with Syria.

7. Will it be possible to splinter at least part of the opposition, like parliamentarian Michel el-Murr's recent split from their ranks, if all of the opposition members are sitting in a room with the majority and able to hear arguments for themselves and see who is really blocking the advancement of the nation?

8. Even if the dialogue is not televised, it will become apparent to the Lebanese people that the opposition is blocking reconciliation.

Update:

9. Although Lebanon's Western allies are not willing to act in depraved ways on behalf of their Lebanese allies, the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and others are remaining firm in their resolve and are operating within international institutions for the betterment of Lebanon.

Update 2:

Former Lebanese president and Kataeb party leader Amin Gemayel now supports the national dialogue, despite his recent arguments to the contrary. His decision comes after meeting with Future Movement leader Saad al-Hariri, and he explicitly cites the arguments of Walid Jumblatt in his support for the dialogue.